JSn
Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
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I typed this in another thread, and I think it bears its own discussion.
Now if you use projections, Cassel should have an overall better season than Tom because he has a few advantages Tom didn't, especially in Moss. I think Brady still had receivers in the same range as Welker and Gaffney in 2001.
That trend, though I did not see the games in 2001, tells me that after the loss to Miami the team started to click.
Interestingly though, in the Chargers game, it's a close one despite a spike in passing yards. In the thrashing of the Colts he throws for 162 less yards.
Chargers: W, 29-26. Tommy throws 2 TDs, passes for 364 yards. 61% Comp.
@ Colts: W, 38-17. Brady throws 3 TD's, passes for 202 yards. 80% Comp.
In the Colts game he threw only 20 times as compared to a whopping 54 times against the Chargers.
These don't seem like unreasonable things to expect of Mr. Cassel over the next two games. I doubt we'll see 364 yards, but I do think we'll be hopping over 200 a lot.
The point is we're seeing a very similar schedule of active duty development.
Moss and Welker might be the only factors that say Cassel has a better team around him in reality. I know on paper it's different, but our last game makes a mess of the 3 game stats anyway.
So if I can be allowed to form a data-based hypothesis or two without the outright mockery of the anti-Cassel crowd...
BB has a system of development for new QB's and has probably evaluated these guys with the same entry level talent.
Further, based on the trends, Cassel will not win every game but is very likely to start doing the kind of scoring to at least make him noteworthy.
Lastly, a loss to Miami is a good sign (the growth of Brady, 16-0, and maybe this time... who knows.).
I believe we will see a much different team on the field next week than we did last week. Not because we're doing a straight trade for Dallas either.
But because based on trends in coaching and loss reaction, the system is operating on a nearly identical schedule a it did in 2001 when another first time NFL starter took the reigns.
For deeper insight, check out the details of the 2001 season. Pretty interesting stuff, likely even if you were there.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2001.htm
In Tom's third game (second start) playing the Dolphins, he scored NO TD's and threw for a whopping 86 Yards, going 12 for 24 (50%). The Dolphins outscored the Patriots by 20 points. In four games, the Pats were 1-3.
In Matt's third game (second start) playing the Dolphins, he scored ONE TD (while not passing to one of our "premiere" receivers) and threw one INT. He threw for 131 yards, going 19 for 31 (61%). The Dolphins outscored the Patriots by 25. In three games, the Pats are 2-1.
It's fair to say Matt will never be as Good as Tommy is because Peyton Manning isn't as good as Tommy is and few players even stack up against the two of them in the history of quarterbacking. What can be said, by those numbers is that Matt Cassel 2008 is BETTER than Tom Brady 2001 as of this moment.
It's very possible if Matt was behind a Bledsoe-esque QB, Bill would be just biding time waiting to get him out there. Fact is, he's been behind Brady and that makes #2 a long way down from #1 on the depth chart.
I'm just trying to make a case for not throwing the guy out on the street. Sure, stats don't tell the whole story, but discounting them outright is just ignorant.
Now if you use projections, Cassel should have an overall better season than Tom because he has a few advantages Tom didn't, especially in Moss. I think Brady still had receivers in the same range as Welker and Gaffney in 2001.
That trend, though I did not see the games in 2001, tells me that after the loss to Miami the team started to click.
Interestingly though, in the Chargers game, it's a close one despite a spike in passing yards. In the thrashing of the Colts he throws for 162 less yards.
Chargers: W, 29-26. Tommy throws 2 TDs, passes for 364 yards. 61% Comp.
@ Colts: W, 38-17. Brady throws 3 TD's, passes for 202 yards. 80% Comp.
In the Colts game he threw only 20 times as compared to a whopping 54 times against the Chargers.
These don't seem like unreasonable things to expect of Mr. Cassel over the next two games. I doubt we'll see 364 yards, but I do think we'll be hopping over 200 a lot.
The point is we're seeing a very similar schedule of active duty development.
Moss and Welker might be the only factors that say Cassel has a better team around him in reality. I know on paper it's different, but our last game makes a mess of the 3 game stats anyway.
So if I can be allowed to form a data-based hypothesis or two without the outright mockery of the anti-Cassel crowd...
BB has a system of development for new QB's and has probably evaluated these guys with the same entry level talent.
Further, based on the trends, Cassel will not win every game but is very likely to start doing the kind of scoring to at least make him noteworthy.
Lastly, a loss to Miami is a good sign (the growth of Brady, 16-0, and maybe this time... who knows.).
I believe we will see a much different team on the field next week than we did last week. Not because we're doing a straight trade for Dallas either.
But because based on trends in coaching and loss reaction, the system is operating on a nearly identical schedule a it did in 2001 when another first time NFL starter took the reigns.
For deeper insight, check out the details of the 2001 season. Pretty interesting stuff, likely even if you were there.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2001.htm
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