The Loss to Denver and the Power of Hidden Yards

[ivanvamp]

The Patriots' average starting field position was their own 28.0 yard line.
The Broncos' average starting field position was their own 31.6 yard line.

That's just over a 3.5 yard starting position difference, on average. Not counting the two kneel-downs to end each half, each team had 14 drives. 14 x 3.6 = 50.4 yards (call it 50) of hidden yardage that Denver gained over the Patriots.

Now, how valuable is that 50 yards? Well, looking at the point expectancy chart here (from Advanced Football Analytics):



We see that the difference of 50 yards is worth just about 2.5 points. A first and 10 from your own 10 yard line yields an expected point value of about 0. A first and 10 from the opponent's 40 yields an expected point value of about 2.5.

So if you total up all those hidden yards, Denver would have been expected to win the game by about 2.5 points. And what happened? They won the game by 2 points. It would have been tied after regulation had Gostkowski not missed the earlier PAT, as that last TD would have tied the game with a conventional PAT.

The point is simply this: all those hidden yards, added up from a variety of factors, were the difference in the game.

 

[Ring 6]

I don't think that is correct.
If you take the ball at the 20, and give it to me at my 23 then I give it back to you at your 20 and you give it back to me at my 23, by your calculation you have gained 12 yards on me, when in fact it is 3.

 

[rexxar]

I'm surprised that they're average was so high. It felt like over and over that they were stuck starting within their own 5 yard line.

 

[The Brandon Five]

I'm surprised that they're average was so high. It felt like over and over that they were stuck starting within their own 5 yard line.

Maybe it is skewed a little by the fumble recovery on the dropped backwards pass.

 

[rexxar]

Maybe it is skewed a little by the fumble recovery on the dropped backwards pass.

Good point.

 

[ivanvamp]

And they also got the ball at the 50 yard line on the last drive. They had good field position a few times, and Denver was never buried like the Patriots were a couple of times.

 

[ivanvamp]

I don't think that is correct.
If you take the ball at the 20, and give it to me at my 23 then I give it back to you at your 20 and you give it back to me at my 23, by your calculation you have gained 12 yards on me, when in fact it is 3.

In that scenario, I'd say you gained 6 hidden yards over the course of the "game" (which consisted of 2 possessions). Your average starting position was the 23, and mine was the 20, and we each had 2 drives, so that's 6 total yards of field position advantage over the course of the game.

Little things like that do add up.

 

[Ring 6]

In that scenario, I'd say you gained 6 hidden yards over the course of the "game" (which consisted of 2 possessions). Your average starting position was the 23, and mine was the 20, and we each had 2 drives, so that's 6 total yards of field position advantage over the course of the game.

Little things like that do add up.

I don't see that. you simply retained the 3 yards you didn't gain it twice.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

"The point is simply this: all those hidden yards, added up from a variety of factors, were the difference in the game."

I think the point, put more generally, is that field position won the game for Denver. While that is obvious from your post, I think the reasons for this gap were within the Patriots control.

First of all, the Patriots punting didn't do a great job pinning the Broncos back. I would love to see the Pats to focus on getting a punter who can eyeball it closer to the goal line when you've got a guy as speedy as Slater. There just didn't seem to be many opportunities to pin the defense back this year (which is odd for a team who typically drives it down the field pretty far).

Second, the Patriots punt coverage needs to do a better job putting pressure on the other team's punter. Sure, you aren't going to block a kick very often. But the Broncos did a better job forcing us to punt awkwardly to the side while we did not get that same type of penetration to the line to influence the travel of the ball.

I think you make a great point about field position and I think special teams (beyond Ghost missing the PAT) cost us this game. This whole season felt "off" not only due to injuries, but the fact the Patriots special teams were so inconsistent. Belichick teams usually win in large part because their special teams give them the edge. That aspect of the game was a liability this year.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

The point is simply this: all those hidden yards, added up from a variety of factors, were the difference in the game.

Also, I think the difference in the game came down to the intangible toughness factor that the Broncos had in spades over the Patriots. They out physical-ed us. Against a team with an average defense, we would have overcome this lack of toughness. In a close game in their house, however, we needed to smack them in the mouth. Instead, they smacked us in the mouth, punched us in the gut, and pissed on our grave. And we still almost tied it... go Zombie Pats?

 

[eom]

ummmmm.....