The inside story of the Patriots’ fall to rock bottom in the Bill Belichick era

[VJCPatriot]

Kind of wondering if Bill went defense-heavy in the top of the draft specifically hoping to make his already good defense look even better, so that future employers would say “well, he sure can coach a defense, wow!!” Which is what they’re saying anyway even though his top pick missed most of the season and his other top defensive player was also lost early, because he did legitimately do a good job. I just question the motivations. Like, was he seeking to strengthen his strengths to do himself a favor for his own resume?

I can't prove it but it feels like BB had such contempt for the offense that he felt a great defense could always come up for any shortcomings on the other side of the ball.

What he failed to realize was that TB12 + Josh McDaniels + Dante Scarnecchia had always been covering up for any weaknesses in offensive talent in prior decades. The whole system fell apart without the HOF QB, a good OC, and a HOF line coach who has been unmatched in coaching up OL talent.

The talent drain began with the loss of Brady and the retirement of Dante Scarnecchia in 2020. Josh McDaniels leaving for the Raiders job in 2022 accelerated the process.

Unfortunately BB blundered when he appointed Matt Patricia as OC, a life long defensive coach, and Joe Judge, an utter failure with the Giants as the QB coach just speeding up the downfall of Mac Jones development and the Patriots offense as a whole.

Then in the 2023 draft BB put the cherry on top of failure by choosing not to add any significant offensive talent on the OL, and choosing to let Jakobi Meyers go and replaced him with a cheaper but worse JuJu Schuster-Smith. He would not address the need at WR until round 6 nor would he draft a starter worthy OL, causing one of the offensive coaches to reportedly yell at Groh for not bolstering that area of the squad. Add on top of that running out a shell-shocked and ruined Mac Jones week after week after week and here we are.

BB was the architect of his own downfall is all I can say. The sad thing is that the whole trajectory of the Patriots franchise has suffered because of his arrogance and at times downright incompetence. BB the GM sabotaged the chances of success for BB the coach.

 

[h0c2000]

The homers will always be the first to shout out what year they became a fan and delegate who gets to root for the team and in what fashion. The homers are the gatekeepers to fandom and we all must bow before them.

And it's the same ones:

Game Day Thread - Official Postgame Thread- Bills @ Pats

 

[venecol]

Perhaps.

But some of us think hiring Mayo for Bill is a disaster waiting to unfold.

First time head coach. Defensive guy in a offensive league, taking over a roster that is a mess and no franchise or even serviceable QB?

Call me crazy but that doesn't project well.

Demico Ryans is a defensive guy and 1st time HC w/ a rookie QB. They can make the playoffs tomorrow night or win their division (w/luck).

I like Mayo, mainly because he has leadership experience outside the Pats org., is a former Pats captain, respected by the players and knows X & Os. There's a lot more needed to be a HC, but he's a smart dude and I think he has potential.

Given all that, a thorough search needs to be conducted for the HC with no stone left unturned. I prefer an offensive minded coach but defensive guys shouldn't necessarily be disqualified.

 

[203Pat]

I don't agree that you need a full tear down when a team is in purgatory. With a good coach you can figure out those few missing pieces to get over the hump.

The issue is finding a legitimate franchise quarterback outside the first round is highly unlikely and the guys that hit free agency are usually aging stopgaps. Your only option outside of getting extremely lucky is to sell the farm for a young established quarterback.

 

[festy1986]

Demico Ryans is a defensive guy and 1st time HC w/ a rookie QB. They can make the playoffs tomorrow night or win their division (w/luck).

I like Mayo, mainly because he has leadership experience outside the Pats org., is a former Pats captain, respected by the players and knows X & Os. There's a lot more needed to be a HC, but he's a smart dude and I think he has potential.

Given all that, a thorough search needs to be conducted for the HC with no stone left unturned. I prefer an offensive minded coach but defensive guys shouldn't necessarily be disqualified.

I'm not out right saying it won't work but I'm not holding my breath. If we're done with Bill, they really need to be cleaning house entirely my opinion.

 

[venecol]

I realized something today: The only people I know that want BB fired are a smattering of idiots on this forum and fans of other NFL teams.

What will you do if Kraft lets him go? Will you call Kraft an idiot? Will you stop supporting the team and follow your cult leader (daddy) to Washington or LA?

Seriously, do you think Dad takes you with him and hands you a job at his next stop?

 

[Steve102]

I can't prove it but it feels like BB had such contempt for the offense that he felt a great defense could always come up for any shortcomings on the other side of the ball.

What he failed to realize was that TB12 + Josh McDaniels + Dante Scarnecchia had always been covering up for any weaknesses in offensive talent in prior decades. The whole system fell apart without the HOF QB, a good OC, and a HOF line coach who has been unmatched in coaching up OL talent.

The talent drain began with the loss of Brady and the retirement of Dante Scarnecchia in 2020. Josh McDaniels leaving for the Raiders job in 2022 accelerated the process.

Unfortunately BB blundered when he appointed Matt Patricia as OC, a life long defensive coach, and Joe Judge, an utter failure with the Giants as the QB coach just speeding up the downfall of Mac Jones development and the Patriots offense as a whole.

Then in the 2023 draft BB put the cherry on top of failure by choosing not to add any significant offensive talent on the OL, and choosing to let Jakobi Meyers go and replaced him with a cheaper but worse JuJu Schuster-Smith. He would not address the need at WR until round 6 nor would he draft a starter worthy OL, causing one of the offensive coaches to reportedly yell at Groh for not bolstering that area of the squad. Add on top of that running out a shell-shocked and ruined Mac Jones week after week after week and here we are.

BB was the architect of his own downfall is all I can say. The sad thing is that the whole trajectory of the Patriots franchise has suffered because of his arrogance and at times downright incompetence. BB the GM sabotaged the chances of success for BB the coach.

I think contempt is a strong word. I think it's more of an overestimation on what the offense was. I think he underestimated JMcD and overestimated what Fatt Matt and JJ could do. Then you had the mutiny, and Bill either shipped out or was out on the players involved. I think Mac needed a softer, guiding, teaching hand, not a hard coaching hard-ass like Bill. All of it was a perfect storm leading to a historically bad offense.

 

[upstater1]

Then in the 2023 draft BB put the cherry on top of failure by choosing not to add any significant offensive talent on the OL, and choosing to let Jakobi Meyers go and replaced him with a cheaper but worse JuJu Schuster-Smith. He would not address the need at WR until round 6 nor would he draft a starter worthy OL, causing one of the offensive coaches to reportedly yell at Groh for not bolstering that area of the squad. Add on top of that running out a shell-shocked and ruined Mac Jones week after week after week and here we are.

BB was the architect of his own downfall is all I can say. The sad thing is that the whole trajectory of the Patriots franchise has suffered because of his arrogance and at times downright incompetence. BB the GM sabotaged the chances of success for BB the coach.

Is it true they haven't used much in terms of draft capital on offense?

Last 3 drafts the Patriots have taken 16 offensive picks and 11 defensive picks.

Including using 2 1st round draft choices and 1 2nd rounder.

If you count the draft chart value of their picks, it's 2480 for defense and 2475 for offense.

They've used the exact equal amounts of capital on both sides of the ball.

No starter worthy OL? Strange isn't starter worthy? Sow isn't starter worthy? If these OL aren't starter worthy, then who is?

About the only argument that can be made is that they didn't take Broderick Jones or Cody Mauch over Christian Gonzalez or Keion White. If anyone wants to take the bet that those players will turn out better than Gonzalez and White, I'd call them suckers.

As for FA/trades, they've expended a lot on the offensive side of the ball -- granted with little success. Bourne, Jonnu Smith, Algholor, Henry, Gesicki, Zeke, Smith-Schuster (whose contract is remarkably similar to Meyers'), Parker, all had big contracts relative to the bargain basement hunting on the defensive side (Phillips, Mills, Wade, Peppers, Tavai) outside of Godchaux and Judon. The amount of money spent on offense dwarfs the amount on defense.

The most you can say is that their draft and FA efforts on offense failed, whereas on defense they panned out.

As for waiting to grab WRs in the 6th, does it matter if one of those receivers is better than, say, 1st rounder Treylon Burks?

Does it matter that they grabbed Onwenu in the 6th?

Or Rhamondre and Sow in the 4th?

As long as you're finding players who can help you, the draft value matters much less.

BUT -- whatever anyone wants to argue, it can't be said they neglected offense in either free agency or in the draft. By any standard of measurement (FA $$$ expended, # of draft picks, trade value of those draft picks), they expended at least as much resources as they have on offense.

People want to start a narrative and rewrite history because the Patriots (CORRECTLY) chose Gonzalez and Keion White over Jones and Mauch. That's what the Patriots should've done. Choose the BPAs and the difference makers 100% of the time, and eventually it will all fall into place.

 

[Peachhead]

Journalists are allowed to be as idiotic as possible with their hit pieces.

The fact that fans would rather have Mauch or Steen here than Keion White tells you everything. You're not going to the Super Bowl if you take Mauch over White. People are perplexed over taking Gonzalez instead of Broderick Jones.

I thought the goal here was going to the Super Bowl and winning. Filling needs instead of taking future Pro Bowlers is not the way to do that.

Bingo! And I'll add: Drafting for need is how you get Cole Strange in the 1st.

 

[Ring 6]

What are you talking about? Which tackles got 80 million? 80 million guaranteed? Jonnu Smith is having a nice year with Atlanta. 47 catches so far And 500+ yards. Maybe the problem here was coaching. Algholorwas a joke of a signing from the outset. he had a reputation as having horrible hands in Philly.

The problem was the QB.

 

[venecol]

Turned things around after he ditched Arians risqit bisqit and went with what worked in NE. And it worked again.

That's not true. All of his air yard stats were much higher than his previous 2 seasons with the Pats. At best, it was a mesh at the end.

 

[venecol]

I used receiver as my example, because it was easier to quantify, but I think they do this with all 53. I am sure they have measuring matrices for OL on successful run blocks, QB pressures allowed, ect., and the same for every other position. I would further wager they are measuring things that 95% of us would not even think of looking at. Going further down the rabbit hole, the was Ernie's area and no one was capable of replacing him. Ernie's loss IMO is as big as anyone else on Bill's staff.

Again, just speculating on all this stuff. I just think they really analyze everything far beyond what we would consider.

Word is Bill doesn't use or like analytics. Pats have the smallest analytics staff (1) in the league.

 

[BennyBledsoe]

Another thing that confused me about some of the drafts... not drafting the top tier tight end talent available. Tight ends are incredible lifelines for pocket QBs.

 

[venecol]

I think your "big picture" comment was a good one and the mention of Ernie Adams is another valid point, as the "brain drain" that's gone on here the last several years I think has played a significant factor in getting to where we are right now.

You guys put way too much emphasis on the coaches. Coaches don't move the needle that much. Talent trumps coaching every time. It's the players that win games.

I get that folks around here think that Belichick is a genius. He's w/o a doubt a helluva defensive master. He can scheme the hell out of his defense to confuse good offenses. However, as we've seen time and time again, good offenses with talented skill players almost always beat his D. OTOH, when facing rookie QBs or back-ups, he can usually do enough to confuse them to win.

 

[Triumph]

Exactly

And that's why Bill has to be held accountable for forcing out a great QB and then even if your rebuttal is that he didn't, he certainly needs to be held accountable for not finding one in 4 years.

It's literally his job.

Brady did not help himself selling his TB12 plans to teammates and interfering with team trainers.

 

[venecol]

Let’s not over rank our players. Pop Douglas is a nice player but very, very far from a pro bowler. Rham is good but also not a pro bowler.

Agree. The only borderline elite player on offense is Onwenu.

 

[festy1986]

Brady did not help himself selling his TB12 plans to teammates and interfering with team trainers.

And Bill can rest known he had 4 lost Brady years and countless years before that to find the successor.

Most coaches don't get that amount of time to turn it around.

 

[Dedhampatsfan]

You guys put way too much emphasis on the coaches. Coaches don't move the needle that much. Talent trumps coaching every time. It's the players that win games.

I get that folks around here think that Belichick is a genius. He's w/o a doubt a helluva defensive master. He can scheme the hell out of his defense to confuse good offenses. However, as we've seen time and time again, good offenses with talented skill players almost always beat his D. OTOH, when facing rookie QBs or back-ups, he can usually do enough to confuse them to win.

BB did give Peyton headaches though

 

[Boomer B]

If Bill would have kept Brady he probably would have broken Shula’s record by now

 

[raduray]

As bad as it looks for Bill, does Kraft really have the cajones to fire or "mutually part ways" with Bill after all he did for the franchise? Does he want bill to go to the chargers or bills and win a Super Bowl with Herbert or Allen? Then he'd be the guy who let Brady and Belichick leave on his watch only to have success elsewhere, and potentially doom his hall of fame chances.

I don't get all this Kraft being intimidated by Bill. You don't keep a manager in place for nostalgia's sake when the work product is in decline. Who's the boss here?