The inside story of the Patriots’ fall to rock bottom in the Bill Belichick era

[festy1986]

Turned things around after he ditched Arians risquit bisquit and went with what worked in NE. And it worked again.

So... The coach doesn't matter.

 

[Steve102]

I think that's true to a certain extent, and I get what you're saying and think it's a valid point. At the same time, what's also interesting is that I also can't recall over the last two decades them having a player who was even either in the top 6 or 8 (outside of Moss & Welker) in terms of overall production, touchdowns, etc., even despite the lower salary, albeit I can't remember what Moss' salary was after he was acquired, nor do I remember off the top of my head if they bumped his salary. Aside from that, in the post-Edelman era, Meyers and Bourne are the only players I can recall recently who even approached 800+ yards (Bourne had 800 in 2021, Meyers had 866, and 804 in 2022), which obviously makes your point in terms of what they were being paid.

Looking back after doing some digging, here's where their top receivers have fallen in terms of receiving yards as it relates to the rest of the league's top 25 in a given season:

2000
Terry Glenn 963yds, 6 TDs (20th)
Troy Brown 944yds, 4 TDs (21st)

2001
Troy Brown 1199yds, 5 TDs (10th)

2002
None

2003
None

2004
None

2005
(NFL's stat tool had an issue with this season ...)

2006
None

2007
Randy Moss 1493yds, 23 TDs (2nd)
Wes Welker 1175yds, 8 TDs (11th)

2008
Wes Welker 1165yds, 3 TDs (9th)
Randy Moss 1008yds, 11 TDs (21st)

2009
Wes Welker 1348yds, 4 TDs (2nd)
Randy Moss 1264yds, 13 TDs (5th)
2010
None

2011
Wes Welker 1569yds, 9 TDs (2nd)
Rob Gronkowski 1327yds, 17 (6th)

2012
Wes Welker 1354yds, 6 TDs (8th)

2013
Julian Edelman 1056yds, 6 TDs (21st)

2014
Rob Gronkowski 1124yds, 12 TDs (15th)
Julian Edelman 972yds, 4 TDs (25th)

2015
Rob Gronkowksi 1176yds, 11 TDs (12th)

2016
Julian Edelman 1106, 3 TDs (13th)

2017
Rob Gronkowski 1084yds, 8 TDs (10th)
Brandin Cooks 1082, 7 TDs (11th)

2018
None

2019
Julian Edelman 1117yds, 6 TDs (18th)

2020
None

2021
None

2022
None

2023 (Through Week 17)
None

So that hopefully provides some context in terms of where New England's "top guy" fell as it relates to the rest of the league.

Now, the other part of this argument is going to be where New England's offense fell overall, since through most of the Brady era, it was a collective effort.

Here's how that breaks down:
2000 - 22nd
2001 - 19th
2002 - 21st
2003 - 17th
2004 - 7th
2005 - 7th
2006 - 11th
2007 - 1st
2008 - 5th
2009 - 3rd
2010 - 8th
2011 - 2nd
2012 - 1st
2013 - 7th
2014 - 11th
2015 - 6th
2016 - 4th
2017 - 1st
2018 - 5th
2019 - 15th
2020 - 27th
2021 - 15th
2022 - 26th
2023 (Through Week 17) - 28th


And I think, to your point, if you look at the above, the "big picture" comes into play because they collectively had groups that were competitive, to the point they were still top 10/11 despite not really always having a top 10 guy, albeit Brady made that go. The issue right now is, until they find someone that can execute remotely close to his level, it's going to be challenging to put a group together that's competitive enough to give that guy a chance.

I used receiver as my example, because it was easier to quantify, but I think they do this with all 53. I am sure they have measuring matrices for OL on successful run blocks, QB pressures allowed, ect., and the same for every other position. I would further wager they are measuring things that 95% of us would not even think of looking at. Going further down the rabbit hole, the was Ernie's area and no one was capable of replacing him. Ernie's loss IMO is as big as anyone else on Bill's staff.

Again, just speculating on all this stuff. I just think they really analyze everything far beyond what we would consider.

 

[Ian]

I used receiver as my example, because it was easier to quantify, but I think they do this with all 53. I am sure they have measuring matrices for OL on successful run blocks, QB pressures allowed, ect., and the same for every other position. I would further wager they are measuring things that 95% of us would not even think of looking at. Going further down the rabbit hole, the was Ernie's area and no one was capable of replacing him. Ernie's loss IMO is as big as anyone else on Bill's staff.

Again, just speculating on all this stuff. I just think they really analyze everything far beyond what we would consider.

I think your "big picture" comment was a good one and the mention of Ernie Adams is another valid point, as the "brain drain" that's gone on here the last several years I think has played a significant factor in getting to where we are right now.

 

[borg]

Team Bill has decided their last resort is to pull all the blame squarely on Mac. With that being the argument who was it that chose Mac?

or Zappe
or Newton
or Hoyer

The man's blind spot extends well past the WR wreckage.

 

[Real fan 02]

Marcus Jones & Barmore are two Pro Bowl type players, Marcus was elected, Barmore an alternate.

Foundational players: Barmore, Keion White, Wise, Godchaux, Gonzalez, Peppers, Dugger, Marcus Jones, Onwenu, Rham, Pop Douglas.

Sprinkle in some solid vets: Judon, Bourne, Wilson, Henry.

It's wait and see on some OL who are young and could still be great players for us: Strange and Sow.

In an offensive driven league that's 3 pro bowl caliber players on offense. I agree on the foundational players. The team defensively is in excellent shape. We all know on offense is where the problem is. Get the QB we are back into contention.

 

[Steve102]

I think your "big picture" comment was a good one and the mention of Ernie Adams is another valid point, as the "brain drain" that's gone on here the last several years I think has played a significant factor in getting to where we are right now.

I think the analytics go much deeper than the things we look at as fans.

 

[Real fan 02]

Exactly

And that's why Bill has to be held accountable for forcing out a great QB and then even if your rebuttal is that he didn't, he certainly needs to be held accountable for not finding one in 4 years.

It's literally his job.

Absolutely agree 100%

 

[archstanton543]

In an offensive driven league that's 3 pro bowl caliber players on offense. I agree on the foundational players. The team defensively is in excellent shape. We all know on offense is where the problem is. Get the QB we are back into contention.

Repeat after me:

They are not one player away
They are not one player away
They are not one player away

 

[Real fan 02]

Repeat after me:

They are not one player away
They are not one player away
They are not one player away

Noooo I wasn't commenting on the post about the players on offense. I said in an offensive driven league thst we can only identify 3 players out of maybe 20 that may see time on offense. We are a dam near whole new roster away. Defensively we are in much better shape no?

 

[Boomer B]

In an offensive driven league that's 3 pro bowl caliber players on offense. I agree on the foundational players. The team defensively is in excellent shape. We all know on offense is where the problem is. Get the QB we are back into contention.

Let’s not over rank our players. Pop Douglas is a nice player but very, very far from a pro bowler. Rham is good but also not a pro bowler.

 

[VrabelJr]

Team Bill has decided their last resort is to pull all the blame squarely on Mac. With that being the argument who was it that chose Mac? Seeing what happened with Mac why would you want to give the same guy another chance to pick the next quarterback?

It's not hard to see that we would likely be 8-8 or better right now if we started Zappe all season, and I am not a pro-Zappe person. That's just how bad Mac is.

 

[Real fan 02]

Let’s not over rank our players. Pop Douglas is a nice player but very, very far from a pro bowler. Rham is good but also not a pro bowler.

I'll agree with that. Pop was a rookie and still had a nice season missing time and being a part time player. There is nothing right now on the offensive side of ball that is of pro bowl caliber.

On defense I'd argue there were some snubs.. barmore, peppers. If we were 11-4 instead of 4-11 those guys would be pro bowlers.

 

[VrabelJr]

How do you explain Brady winning 4he Superbowl with Bruce ****ing Arians?

You do know he has a 62% winning percentage as a head coach and did well at three different franchises right?

 

[archstanton543]

It's not hard to see that we would likely be 8-8 or better right now if we started Zappe all season, and I am not a pro-Zappe person. That's just how bad Mac is.

The book on Zappe is out. There's plenty of film on him. You don't know what plays teams would run to stop him. You don't know what other kinds of bad throws he'd throw. He's had his share of INT's and more.

 

[VrabelJr]

The book on Zappe is out. There's plenty of film on him. You don't know what plays teams would run to stop him. You don't know what other kinds of bad throws he'd throw. He's had his share of INT's and more.

You're saying he had one bad half against the Bills and that equates to being solved as a player to the point that every other game would be a similar result?

 

[festy1986]

You do know he has a 62% winning percentage as a head coach and did well at three different franchises right?

So. The coach is easier to find than the QB?

 

[203Pat]

It's not hard to see that we would likely be 8-8 or better right now if we started Zappe all season, and I am not a pro-Zappe person. That's just how bad Mac is.

And what does 8-8 get us? We would just be snug in purgatory until Bill left and we got a full tear down in a few years then end up where we are now. The only silver lining from this season is we at least are in position to potentially draft a new franchise QB. I didn't really love Mac from the get go. I thought he had a weak arm (and was crucified by some on here for saying so) and he was surrounded by an all star team at Bama where all his receivers were 5 yards open. Mac is clearly broken and I think Zappe is just a tick better but that isn't saying much. At least Zappe has some athleticism to buy time with his feet and can occasionally make an off platform throw.

 

[203Pat]

So. The coach is easier to find than the QB?

I would say so. A good QB would potentially attract better coaches as well. I think many people think that the Chargers job is the top job due to Herbert.

 

[VrabelJr]

And what does 8-8 get us? We would just be snug in purgatory until Bill left and we got a full tear down in a few years then end up where we are now. The only silver lining from this season is we at least are in position to potentially draft a new franchise QB. I didn't really love Mac from the get go. I thought he had a weak arm (and was crucified by some on here for saying so) and he was surrounded by an all star team at Bama where all his receivers were 5 yards open. Mac is clearly broken and I think Zappe is just a tick better but that isn't saying much. At least Zappe has some athleticism to buy time with his feet and can occasionally make an off platform throw.

I don't agree that you need a full tear down when a team is in purgatory. With a good coach you can figure out those few missing pieces to get over the hump.

 

[archstanton543]

You're saying he had one bad half against the Bills and that equates to being solved as a player to the point that every other game would be a similar result?

Did you manage to catch the game against the Chargers?