The good way outweighs the bad.

[RobertWeathers]

Who is Early Bird?

Bob Kraft.

The running joke is he got the "Early Bird" special at Orchids of Asia so he was able to fly to KC early that afternoon for the AFCCG.

 

[Patsfan177a]

Agree. 10 wins in a 17 game season is equivalent to 9.4 wins in a 16 game one, so 2.5 more wins is more accurate than 3.

The Pats had 10 wins after 16 games. If they had won the last game and were crowing about 11 wins, then the point would be more valid.

 

[italian pat patriot]

Things I might think I think:

• How good or bad they are/were could be directly inverse to how long said person has been a fan. Those of us that recall the Rod Rust years, Victor Kiam, Lisa Olsen and even further back to Chuck Fairbanks leaving/staying seem to be much more tolerant of the rebuild. We know how bad it can get. Those of the younger fans who've been on board since Kraft bought the team or since Brady and Belichick have been here have only known winning. Just a thought.

A perfect thought
Just to be able to compete for a playoff spot should be always appreciated

Always

And i appreciated this season with his High and his Lows

I can never forget where we were in the Real Dark Days...

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Bob Kraft.

The running joke is he got the "Early Bird" special at Orchids of Asia so he was able to fly to KC early that afternoon for the AFCCG.

I understand that it is not a joke, but true. He did really get the Early Bird special. Must be a FL thing since they all fall asleep in the evening.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Step by step. Oooh baby

 

[Ring 6]

How does Jones being what he was supposed to be, but not being an obviously elite QB, cut 2-3 years off a rebuild, and are you basing your entire theory on that one player?

Was he supposed to be the guy who led the most productive offense ever QBd by a rookie?
If you are trying to judge “elite” by a rookie season tell me who proved to be “obviously elite” as a rookie and how productive their offense was compared to this one.

 

[Ring 6]

It's obvious from what should be considered a bottom-10 roster in 2020 that rebuilding, retooling or your oddly parsed "remodeling" this team is a multiyear process. Free agent acquisitions are part of that process and with a few exceptions (Karras, Brown, Collins) the 2021 additions are on multiyear contracts making them "rebuild components." Combining that with a strong rookie class anchored by a starting QB, the Patriots rebounded to a winning record and playoff berth while setting a foundation for 2022 and beyond. I'd consider the OP's optimism well founded, but then I'm foremost a Pats fan.

It’s always a multi year process. You work to get better every year. There isn’t a magic timeline in the clouds.
This year they made more changes and more expensive changes for one simple reason. They had the cap space.
I said all along that they would make massive free agent acquisitions unlike other seasons. This was obvious for one reason, they gave massive cap room to spend unlike any other season. The philosophy didn’t change, the roster and available money to spend on it did.
It ironic that people who clamored for belichick to spend big in free agency when he didn’t have the cap space to do so responsibly, now criticize him for doing it when he had a ton of cap to spend.
The philosophy hadn’t changed. The plan is to take the current roster and improve it as much as possible with the resources available. Draft, trade, free agents, UDFA. There is less cap money this year, but there are more quality players on the roster than there was a year ago.
It’s kind of hard to take it seriously when someone thinks that a team that had 45% of its snaps in 2021 played by players who weren’t here in 2020 wasn’t rebuilding.

 

[aluminum seats]

If Mac isn't the guy, and there is no indication that he is

Disagree. Doesn’t mean he is definitely the guy, but he showed signs of it as a rookie, certainly so far as passing accuracy and his composure.

 

[‘Mondre]

10-7=2.5….must be Biden math

 

[PatsFanInVa]

It's worse than that. If Mac isn't the guy, and there is every indication that he is, team will go 3 years of 1 & dones or miss playoffs entirely, while drafting in the 20s. They'll be stuck in QB hell. Bill may never win another SB before he retires.

When Brady left, the dynasty died. They should've blown it all up, from the top down. This team needs fresh blood. Someone that can modernize the O & D with faster players and current concepts instead of trying to win with 1990s concepts. The team looks stale and uninspired.

FYP

Peyton Manning had a passer rating of 71.2 with 3,739 yards, 26 touchdowns and 28 interceptions in 16 games in his rookie season in 1998.

Tom Brady had a passer rating of 86.5 with 2,843 yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 15 games in 2001. He was selected to play in his first Pro Bowl. He won his first Super Bowl MVP award and his first championship.

Josh Allen had a passer rating of 67.9 with 2,074 yards, 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 12 games in his rookie season in 2018.

Joe Burrow had a passer rating of 89.8 with 2,688 yards, 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in 10 games in his rookie season in 2020.

Mac Jones had a passer rating of 92.5 with 3,801 yards, 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 17 games this season.

Is passer rating an indication?
Is Yards passed for an indication? (As in, 1,000 more than Brady 01? bc yards are easier to come by but not that much easier.)
Are TDs vs. INTs an indication?

Now you compare Mac's rookie year with TFB's 2007 and you have a problem, but that's not the point. Having a skeptic's hat on is fine, but your level of "indication" would mean he had to win the SB his first year, from what I can tell. He's the guy at this point unless and until it's proven that what he is is what we saw the last 4 or 5 games.

Joe Burrow Rookie Year | StatMuse

Joe Burrow had a passer rating of 89.8 with 2,688 yards, 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in 10 games in his rookie season in 2020.

www.statmuse.com

(just change the names for the other stats.)

He definitely hit a rookie wall. It's definitely a possibility that he's not what he appears. But what he appears is a guy who belongs now as an upper-half-of-the-league NFL QB. In fact:

NFL.com | Official Site of the National Football League

The official source for NFL news, video highlights, fantasy football, game-day coverage, schedules, stats, scores and more.

www.nfl.com

13th in passing yards
(hard to rank completion percentages but he's at 67%, same as Brady, higher than Mahomes, Allen, Stafford, you get the idea. Up there in the good batch)
T-14 in TDs (granted, with a steep difference between no. 1 at 43 and no. 14 at 22)
92.5 rating, not world-beating these days, but still decent

Being QB is like being president - it's all your fault or to your credit - and that loss to Buffalo was the Vietnam withdrawl or Iran Hostage Crisis of football. It's easy to go by that, and by the late-season slide, and decide Jones is mediocre. You don't get many better first years. Now it depends on the rate of progress.

 

[FCB02062]

one need only watch the divisional round games to see the chasm between the Pats and the teams that played yesterday. Speed kills and the Patriots have none. Coach Bills defense is built to stop Edgerrin James and Jerome Bettis - not Josh Allen, Tyreek Hill and Jonathan Taylor. What "speed" they have is down hill not side to side on defense.
The defense made very few impactful plays after Turkey Day vs anyone not named Jacksonville. They have a massive amount of catch-up to the 2021 NFL.
Luckily they have what seems to be at the minimum a very capable NFL quarterback for a rookie contract. Build the offense around Mac Jones' strengths. They have some pieces but there's zero explosion in this offense. you need the ability to have a 75 yard, 4 play drive every now and then - you can't have to sludge through 12 play drives for a td 4 times a game to win in today's NFL.
There's a ton of work to do for Bill the GM. his team won 10 games, but they were an absolutely pathetic and shocking 3-8 vs teams w winning records...1 win vs Tennessee missing half their offense, 1 win vs Buffalo in a hurricane, and 1 win vs San Diego - the only real quality win all season. for the supposed greatest coach in history, he's got to do better than a .272 winning % vs good teams.
I am firmly in camp that much of this teams failures since 2018 lat at the feet of Bill the Coach and Bill the GM. The last couple of drafts have produced a good QB, some good backs, a decent safety and a few other seemingly good players - but not 1 game breaker on either side of the ball. Bill the GM needs to get a difference maker. The QB can't be that guy when he's throwing to a collection of 3s and 4s....

 

[venecol]

FYP

Peyton Manning had a passer rating of 71.2 with 3,739 yards, 26 touchdowns and 28 interceptions in 16 games in his rookie season in 1998.

Tom Brady had a passer rating of 86.5 with 2,843 yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 15 games in 2001. He was selected to play in his first Pro Bowl. He won his first Super Bowl MVP award and his first championship.

Josh Allen had a passer rating of 67.9 with 2,074 yards, 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 12 games in his rookie season in 2018.

Joe Burrow had a passer rating of 89.8 with 2,688 yards, 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in 10 games in his rookie season in 2020.

Mac Jones had a passer rating of 92.5 with 3,801 yards, 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 17 games this season.

Is passer rating an indication?
Is Yards passed for an indication? (As in, 1,000 more than Brady 01? bc yards are easier to come by but not that much easier.)
Are TDs vs. INTs an indication?

Now you compare Mac's rookie year with TFB's 2007 and you have a problem, but that's not the point. Having a skeptic's hat on is fine, but your level of "indication" would mean he had to win the SB his first year, from what I can tell. He's the guy at this point unless and until it's proven that what he is is what we saw the last 4 or 5 games.

Joe Burrow Rookie Year | StatMuse

Joe Burrow had a passer rating of 89.8 with 2,688 yards, 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in 10 games in his rookie season in 2020.

www.statmuse.com

(just change the names for the other stats.)

He definitely hit a rookie wall. It's definitely a possibility that he's not what he appears. But what he appears is a guy who belongs now as an upper-half-of-the-league NFL QB. In fact:

NFL.com | Official Site of the National Football League

The official source for NFL news, video highlights, fantasy football, game-day coverage, schedules, stats, scores and more.

www.nfl.com

13th in passing yards
(hard to rank completion percentages but he's at 67%, same as Brady, higher than Mahomes, Allen, Stafford, you get the idea. Up there in the good batch)
T-14 in TDs (granted, with a steep difference between no. 1 at 43 and no. 14 at 22)
92.5 rating, not world-beating these days, but still decent

Being QB is like being president - it's all your fault or to your credit - and that loss to Buffalo was the Vietnam withdrawl or Iran Hostage Crisis of football. It's easy to go by that, and by the late-season slide, and decide Jones is mediocre. You don't get many better first years. Now it depends on the rate of progress.

I can list other QBs that had decent rookie stats that became back-ups or washed out. Would we be OK with a Mayfield? Is he the guy? Do you think CLE should extend him?

We just don't know. Using his rookie stats is meaningless. I know that teams were coming into Foxborough announcing their game plan to everyone: we're going to force Mac to beat us. It worked.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I can list other QBs that had decent rookie stats that became back-ups or washed out. Would we be OK with a Mayfield? Is he the guy? Do you think CLE should extend him?

We just don't know. Using his rookie stats is meaningless. I know that teams were coming into Foxborough announcing their game plan to everyone: we're going to force Mac to beat us. It worked.

Yeahhhhh just don't couch your unhappiness in uncertainty in the clothing of certainty of something to be unhappy about.

I agree that it's too bad that we can't be more certain, but getting a higher level than Mac Jones showed his rookie year is extremely rare. So yeah, in a game that takes funny bounces, in which we have recently been treated to the most epic show of consistency, excellence, and certainty in the history of the sport (and PS, that guy used uncertainty in him as a chip on his shoulder even after heading up a dynasty)... well, you might experience getting "the guy by all indications" as "no indications he is the guy," if you want to.

That said, that cruddy first year he just had was a "he's the guy" year.

To conclude: There's good reason to wish we were top tier. We're not. And if you're top tier, the big guys are scared of you (they were for a few games in the middle there, but it fell apart, as you note.)

You can say it's deceptive if you can destroy bad teams. That's true to, but they don't ask strength of schedule until well below the number of wins when determining whether you're in the playoffs.

We were a playoff team -- and not one that strode in, one that backed in.

So that's where we are - we only jumped from 6-10 to 9-8. Our QB situation only improved from close to worst in the league, to the top half to third of QBs Mac's rookie year. He did not instantly become the number 1 QB in the league.

He's only a top half-to-third QB as a rookie. Boo feckin hoo.

Does he improve or slump next year? Does his 4-year trajectory look good or bad? I don't know. You don't know. We're in exactly the same place, but I call the indications what they are, and you call them what they aren't, by comparing them to a dimensionless ideal.

It really is what it is dude.

 

[venecol]

Yeahhhhh just don't couch your unhappiness in uncertainty in the clothing of certainty of something to be unhappy about.

I agree that it's too bad that we can't be more certain, but getting a higher level than Mac Jones showed his rookie year is extremely rare. So yeah, in a game that takes funny bounces, in which we have recently been treated to the most epic show of consistency, excellence, and certainty in the history of the sport (and PS, that guy used uncertainty in him as a chip on his shoulder even after heading up a dynasty)... well, you might experience getting "the guy by all indications" as "no indications he is the guy," if you want to.

That said, that cruddy first year he just had was a "he's the guy" year.

To conclude: There's good reason to wish we were top tier. We're not. And if you're top tier, the big guys are scared of you (they were for a few games in the middle there, but it fell apart, as you note.)

You can say it's deceptive if you can destroy bad teams. That's true to, but they don't ask strength of schedule until well below the number of wins when determining whether you're in the playoffs.

We were a playoff team -- and not one that strode in, one that backed in.

So that's where we are - we only jumped from 6-10 to 9-8. Our QB situation only improved from close to worst in the league, to the top half to third of QBs Mac's rookie year. He did not instantly become the number 1 QB in the league.

He's only a top half-to-third QB as a rookie. Boo feckin hoo.

Does he improve or slump next year? Does his 4-year trajectory look good or bad? I don't know. You don't know. We're in exactly the same place, but I call the indications what they are, and you call them what they aren't, by comparing them to a dimensionless ideal.

It really is what it is dude.

That's a lot of words to dispute my assertion that we don't know if he's the guy. We don't.

 

[masterbouncer]

So that's where we are - we only jumped from 6-10 to 9-8. Our QB situation only improved from close to worst in the league, to the top half to third of QBs Mac's rookie year. He did not instantly become the number 1 QB in the league.

He's only a top half-to-third QB as a rookie. Boo feckin hoo.

was that your expectation of Macs rookie season in order to have some hope for him going forward?

 

[WhatJustHappened]

****, don't we at least give Mac another year to learn and get better?
Look back at the greats, they SUCKED their 1st year, Mac didn't

 

[PatsFanInVa]

That's a lot of words to dispute my assertion that we don't know if he's the guy. We don't.

That's a pretty thin defense, and a restatement of what you said, for a man who said there is no indication that he is the man. There are, in actuality, indications that he is the man.

We don't know looking back in 3 more years how the pick went. That's a symptom of it being now, not of him not showing anything.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

It's worse than that. If Mac isn't the guy, and there is no indication that he is, team will go 3 years of 1 & dones or miss playoffs entirely, while drafting in the 20s. They'll be stuck in QB hell. Bill may never win another SB before he retires.

When Brady left, the dynasty died. They should've blown it all up, from the top down. This team needs fresh blood. Someone that can modernize the O & D with faster players and current concepts instead of trying to win with 1990s concepts. The team looks stale and uninspired.