The danger of overestimating your opponent

[Simpelton]

Guys, going up against Jacksonville will not be easy. No NFL team is easy, especially not one that's fought its way to the AFC Championship Game.

But let's not pretend we're going up against the 86 bears here. They have a good defense. They can run the ball. Bortles has been playing well. All of that is true of a lot of teams we've more or less walked through over the years.

I think it's appropriate to look to the Jacksonville game with reasonable confidence. We have a battle hardened veteran team with many personnel being veterans of one or more recent Superbowls. Our team is professional, locked in and well led, both on the field and off the field. We have home field advantage. And our opponents are young, enthisiastic, and confident in their skill, but inexperienced and liable to make exploitable mistakes in a big game like this

It's fair to have a healthy respect for your opponent, but some of what I've seen in this forum in the last couple days goes far beyond that. It's like people have never seen Brady and BB pick apart a stubborn defense before. There should be exactly zero Patriots fans looking at the upcoming game with anything other than quiet confidence. We've seen far more dangerous teams and sent them home with their tails between their legs.

It's not overconfidence to simply note the fact that if the Jags do win the game, it will represent a significant upset considering the advantages of venue, temperature, experience and coaching the Patriots enjoy.

It really comes down to the thing BB always says. Do your job and let the game play. Don't underestimate your opponent, but also never, ever panic unnecessarily. The Jacksonville Jaguars are a solid team. We have every advantage we need to beat them. Anything can happen, but if everyone does their job, we probably get to buy some championship regalia in the shops next week.

 

[TommyD4207]

But I just bought a whole case of Depends...

 

[Soliel]

Right on man. These guys are good yes but they are not the Seattle Seahawks from 2014.

Yeah, the ones that got busted. Lol

I’m not worried, jimmy busted them with a garbage team.pittsburgh got smoked because they are badly coached, I’ll prepared, psyched out by the pats and greatly talented yet self centered jerks

P.s. the tv on my head is a dual use crystal ball

 

[Uptown]

Healthy Respect. Perfectly said.

 

[primetime]

Not to burst your bubble, but we're all just fans man. Literally nothing we do matters at all to the game's outcome.

 

[Observer]

Our backup destroyed that team, not worried.

 

[PatsBoy12]

I think the nervousness for some is that JAX seems built (unintentionally) perfectly to attack areas where NE isn't as strong. Our receivers have a hard time creating separation - they have corners that are very physical and hold, grab, scratch and claw the whole route. They have bigger defensive backs who could at least give Gronk a fight, though Gronk would likely still win. And while their DL isn't the Giants of '07 and '11, those edge guys are tremendous. Where they can be hurt badly is matching up with our RB's. And we have a Gronk. So, OP, I do agree with your sentiment. I respect them. But I don't know if I'm necessarily afraid of them.

 

[Sicilian]

I do think there's an element of truth to what you're saying, even from the point of view of the coaches. For example, Jalen (Jaylen?) Ramsey is an excellent corner, no one will dispute that. But if the coaches go in and gameplan around completely avoiding throwing in his direction, it's probably doing our offense a disservice. Not because he's exploitable, but because when you give a player too much respect, you end up hamstringing yourself and essentially doing his job for him. He doesn't have to play great, because you've already conceded that receiver as lost.

I'm not saying BB or his staff will do this. That's one of the advantages we have with a veteran coaching group this good, they're going to know how to walk that line between healthy respect and crippling respect.

 

[Simpelton]

I do think there's an element of truth to what you're saying, even from the point of view of the coaches. For example, Jalen (Jaylen?) Ramsey is an excellent corner, no one will dispute that. But if the coaches go in and gameplan around completely avoiding throwing in his direction, it's probably doing our offense a disservice. Not because he's exploitable, but because when you give a player too much respect, you end up hamstringing yourself and essentially doing his job for him. He doesn't have to play great, because you've already conceded that receiver as lost.

I'm not saying BB or his staff will do this. That's one of the advantages we have with a veteran coaching group this good, they're going to know how to walk that line between healthy respect and crippling respect.

Exactly. If the enemy is going to beat you let him beat you. Don't beat yourself.

I'm an LDS (Mormon) and there's a verse in the Mornon scripture The Doctrine and Covenants that specifically says, "If ye are prepared, ye shall not fear." (Doctrine and Covenants section 38, if you're curious). That's ultimately the philosophy Bill Belichick has lived by his whole life. And it's a true proverb. We will be prepared for this game, and we have the tools to win it if we are prepared. I'm excited for this game.

 

[BigPharma]

Not to burst your bubble, but we're all just fans man. Literally nothing we do matters at all to the game's outcome.

So you're telling me I've been doing NOTHING by putting a miniature Mark Sanchez jersey on my voodoo doll of Joker and setting it ablaze? I call fake news.

 

[Simpelton]

Not to burst your bubble, but we're all just fans man. Literally nothing we do matters at all to the game's outcome.

But it can have a big effect on your ability to enjoy the game.

And everyone else's ability to enjoy the pregame build up.

If you take my meaning.

 

[patriot1136]

Every team has weaknesses. BB is the guy to figure them out and exploit them.

 

[Deus Irae]

Belichick treats every opponent as if it's the '85 Bears defense coupled with the '07 Patriots offense. And that seems to be working out pretty well.

So, if BB can do that, I'm pretty sure that it's alright for fans to do the same.

 

[Simpelton]

Belichick treats every opponent as if it's the '85 Bears defense coupled with the '07 Patriots offense. And that seems to be working out pretty well.

So, if BB can do that, I'm pretty sure that it's alright for fans to do the same.

But he doesn't do that. Not even close. He's far too good at appraising the individual and collective strengths and weaknesses of a team for that to ever really be his MO.

What he does is give them credit for what they CAN do, while figuring out at the same time how to beat what they can do with what he can do. That's not the same thing as seeing a mouse and preparing as if to do battle with an elephant.

Belichick takes the opponent seriously and plots against their actual strengths and weaknesses, he does not underestimate or overestimate either himself or his opponent. He demands that his players execute his gameplan and he plans for the opponent he's facing. Not for the 86 bears or the 07 Patriots.

And his genius and that of his staff is his ability to accurately assess his opponents and outprepare whoever he's facing and have a team ready for what his opponent is going to try to do without wasting valuable prep time on exaggerations.

 

[Deus Irae]

But he doesn't do that. Not even close.

Yes, he does. It's part of his makeup. He views them as forces of nature, and then looks for ways to strike at weaknesses.


And even the '85 Bears and '07 Patriots had weaknesses.

What he does is give them credit for what they CAN do, while figuring out at the same time how to beat what they can do with what he can do. That's not the same thing as seeing a mouse and preparing as if to do battle with an elephant.

You're saying the same thing, while trying to claim you're saying something different. And his players, both current and former, have made it plain and clear that BB talks up every team as if they're the best of the best. If you want to say that all those players are lying, that's a choice for you to make.

 

[Tunescribe]

Guys, going up against Jacksonville will not be easy. No NFL team is easy, especially not one that's fought its way to the AFC Championship Game.

You're not called "Simpleton" for nothing. (When are you going to switch to the correct spelling?)

 

[MassPats38]

But he doesn't do that. Not even close. He's far too good at appraising the individual and collective strengths and weaknesses of a team for that to ever really be his MO.

Have you watched his pre-game press conferences, heard him on All Access or listened to pre-game statements by players? An 0-15 team would be "extremely dangerous" in those statements. A QB with a 76 rating would sound like Joe Montana. He has done that as long as he has been with the Pats.

The reason the Pats rarely get caught flat is because BB harps on any positive an opponent can offer and hammers it into the players' heads over the course of the prior week. Any team can beat any other team in the NFL, but BB takes that possibility, emphasizes the strengths of teams and makes those sound like an asteroid hurtling toward the planet with a high probability of destroying the season that only proper preparation and execution can stop.

Those statements have nothing to do with analytical skills. They are more preparation and motivation, and he absolutely does it. I'm not sure how you could have missed that pre-game approach, as it happens every single week. Go to the Patriots site and pick a random All Access episode. It will be there.

 

[Kontradiction]

Not to burst your bubble, but we're all just fans man. Literally nothing we do matters at all to the game's outcome.

We all need to take it one game at a time when we're sitting on the couch inhaling pizza and slamming down IPAs.

 

[PatsBoy12]

I do think there's an element of truth to what you're saying, even from the point of view of the coaches. For example, Jalen (Jaylen?) Ramsey is an excellent corner, no one will dispute that. But if the coaches go in and gameplan around completely avoiding throwing in his direction, it's probably doing our offense a disservice. Not because he's exploitable, but because when you give a player too much respect, you end up hamstringing yourself and essentially doing his job for him. He doesn't have to play great, because you've already conceded that receiver as lost.

I'm not saying BB or his staff will do this. That's one of the advantages we have with a veteran coaching group this good, they're going to know how to walk that line between healthy respect and crippling respect.

This reminds me of a SEA vs GB game when Rodgers never threw to Sherman's side. Their offense was so negatively impacted by it. I don't remember how that one ended, but I know Rodgers was frustrated by it because I seem to remember the word at that time was he was made to play it that way. That was the game plan going in.

 

[Sicilian]

Have you watched his pre-game press conferences, heard him on All Access or listened to pre-game statements by players? An 0-15 team would be "extremely dangerous" in those statements. A QB with a 76 rating would sound like Joe Montana. He has done that as long as he has been with the Pats.

The reason the Pats rarely get caught flat is because BB harps on any positive an opponent can offer and hammers it into the players' heads over the course of the prior week. Any team can beat any other team in the NFL, but BB takes that possibility, emphasizes the strengths of teams and makes those sound like an asteroid hurtling toward the planet with a high probability of destroying the season that only proper preparation and execution can stop.

Those statements have nothing to do with analytical skills. They are more preparation and motivation, and he absolutely does it. I'm not sure how you could have missed that pre-game approach, as it happens every single week. Go to the Patriots site and pick a random All Access episode. It will be there.

I do think there's a difference between:

A) What Belichick says publicly.

B) What Belichick tells his players.

and C) What Belichick thinks inside his head.

He doesn't want to give the other team extra motivation so he plays up the respect side in public (not that he doesn't believe a lot of those things, just that he goes out of his way to talk them up).

He doesn't want his players taking anyone lightly, so he likely has a modified version of that that he says in private meetings and coaching points.

But when it comes down to it, if a team sucks at something, he's absolutely going to target that and let people know this is something he expects them to exploit.

This is all my speculative opinion of course. I'm not in the meetings.