The case for trading UP in the draft

[stinkypete]

Prevailing wisdom suggests the Patritos should try to trade down from #4. After all, Will Campbell now officially has t-rex arms, Graham is good but we're looking at a loaded FA class for DL, and the other guys who likely appeal to the team (Simmons, Warren, Mykel WIlliams) would be extreme reaches at the 4th pick. Why not take what we can get and load up on lottery tickets?

Well, because most lottery tickets are losers, and this draft has exactly two blue chip players and maybe 10 guys with solid 1st round grades. We know the 4th overall pick is not going to fetch nearly the value we normally expect in a draft this weak at the top. What, then, is the actual value of moving down? Significantly lower the floor of our 1st round pick for a 1 in 3 shot of landing a starter with a 3rd rounder? No, thank you.

Consider all the chatter that the Browns are looking to collect picks and move down. This is a team that needs to blow it up and start over, and they see a much more fertile QB class in 2025. Now ask, what will it take to move up from #4 to #2 in a weak draft class with no elite QB? It could cost fifty cents on the dollar. If it does, and if this team is indeed ascending as it should be, then this is the last best chance to land a transformative star.

(All this contingent of course on a successful free agency)

 

[jboston19]

I think Cam Ward is more valuable to the Giants or Jets than either Carter or hunter minus the cost to get them would be to us.

It is an interesting idea and worthy of discussion, but we ourselves need more picks this year and next.

 

[slash83]

They’ll be 2 QBs taken before the Pats pick at 4, no need to trade up.

 

[PatsfanTN]

They’ll be 2 QBs taken before the Pats pick at 4, no need to trade up.

Mmmm, not so sure about that.

 

[JayNM]

I thought this would be to trade up to #1-3 pick.

It seems that the 2 best players are Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter, if we disregard positions. Now, ive been adamant on not takin Defense on #4, and I WILL STAND AGAINST ALL LOSERS THAT THINK THAT

but I won't be mad if we get a good trade up to secure the best player in the draft, Abdul Carter, if we are confident he will be cog in the defense for nothing less than 20 years and 2 SBs

 

[Aussie Patriot]

We need every pick we can get. No to moving up.

 

[KCSVEN]

I looked back at all the top 7 picks that were traded going back to 2014. The only time a future first was not included was 2018 when Colts got #6, 37+49 and a next year 2nd to go down 3 spots from #3.
Tampa went from 7 to 12 with Buffalo and Tampa picked up 2 second round picks.

If the Pats trade down the haul will likely be underwhelming and they would be taking 50 cents on the dollar themselves to do it.

Trade up is great IF you really can trade 50 cents on the dollar.
I think by draft day you know what teams are likely to do in the top 3. If you could give a 1 and a 3 to get Hunter, Hell yeah. Chart says it will take a 1, a 2 and a 3 though.

It seems teams would rather just pick at their spot than trade the pick for less value than the charts say.

Titans maybe trade #1 to a QB needy team that loves 1 QB but not the other.
Other than that scenario I think everyone at the top is just going to make the pick and not trade because there is no trade value this year.

 

[slash83]

Mmmm, not so sure about that.

I am.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Thanks Jerod.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Thanks Jerod.

I'm not angry at Mayo for beating Buffalo. I'm angry at his having just the right level of incompetence over the previous 17 weeks that he put them in that position to begin with.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I looked back at all the top 7 picks that were traded going back to 2014. The only time a future first was not included was 2018 when Colts got #6, 37+49 and a next year 2nd to go down 3 spots from #3.
Tampa went from 7 to 12 with Buffalo and Tampa picked up 2 second round picks.

If the Pats trade down the haul will likely be underwhelming and they would be taking 50 cents on the dollar themselves to do it.

Trade up is great IF you really can trade 50 cents on the dollar.
I think by draft day you know what teams are likely to do in the top 3. If you could give a 1 and a 3 to get Hunter, Hell yeah. Chart says it will take a 1, a 2 and a 3 though.

It seems teams would rather just pick at their spot than trade the pick for less value than the charts say.

Titans maybe trade #1 to a QB needy team that loves 1 QB but not the other.
Other than that scenario I think everyone at the top is just going to make the pick and not trade because there is no trade value this year.

But if Hunter falls to us at 4, which is not crazy talk, then we could be offered a deal where we move down to 8 (Panthers) or 9 (Saints), and for that we get a 2025 2nd and a 2026 1st. Take Membou at 8-9, with two high 2nds and two high 3rds to follow. Package a 3rd & a 2nd to move up to the late 1st round, or both 2nds to move to mid 1st round..

 

[BobDigital]

I don't think we can trade up at a discount. Cause that is trading up to where the separation exists between tiers of players potentially. The reason our trade down may not be valuable is cause the top 2 guys are gone and teams decide Sanders isn't worth a big trade up.

 

[signbabybrady]

Who cares about value. I just want the best player we can possibly get so if we move up for Hunter or Carter I'll be happy guy.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

I'm not angry at Mayo for beating Buffalo. I'm angry at his having just the right level of incompetence over the previous 17 weeks that he put them in that position to begin with.

yeah but winning the last game was the final nail in the…

 

[Real fan 02]

Thanks Jerod.

Neutralize!!!!

 

[TommyD4207]

Prevailing wisdom suggests the Patritos should try to trade down from #4. After all, Will Campbell now officially has t-rex arms, Graham is good but we're looking at a loaded FA class for DL, and the other guys who likely appeal to the team (Simmons, Warren, Mykel WIlliams) would be extreme reaches at the 4th pick. Why not take what we can get and load up on lottery tickets?

Well, because most lottery tickets are losers, and this draft has exactly two blue chip players and maybe 10 guys with solid 1st round grades. We know the 4th overall pick is not going to fetch nearly the value we normally expect in a draft this weak at the top. What, then, is the actual value of moving down? Significantly lower the floor of our 1st round pick for a 1 in 3 shot of landing a starter with a 3rd rounder? No, thank you.

Consider all the chatter that the Browns are looking to collect picks and move down. This is a team that needs to blow it up and start over, and they see a much more fertile QB class in 2025. Now ask, what will it take to move up from #4 to #2 in a weak draft class with no elite QB? It could cost fifty cents on the dollar. If it does, and if this team is indeed ascending as it should be, then this is the last best chance to land a transformative star.

(All this contingent of course on a successful free agency)

No. We need the draft capital for the next 3 years at least. If they go 7-10 this year, and don't have a 1st round pick in 2026, it will be a disaster.

 

[Lansdowne]

They’ll be 2 QBs taken before the Pats pick at 4, no need to trade up.

Agreed. All three teams picking above us need a QB, the Draft remains the most cost-effective way to find a franchise QB, and there just so happen to be two QB’s in this year’s class that are graded high enough to go at the top of the Draft. When it comes to addressing needs, QB usually tends to be the tiebreaker and get priority.

The Titans are posturing to see if they can get a king’s ransom for their pick, but ultimately I believe they won’t get cute with it and will just take Cam Ward 1st overall.

Then you have the Browns whose backs are against the wall in terms of the cap so they can’t afford to spend on a QB in free agency. Reports suggest they’re taking QB at #2 and in this case it would be Shedeur Sanders.

The Giants want a QB too and are rumored to be looking to trade up for #1 so if the Titans don’t go for Ward it could be the Giants instead. But it’s looking very possible that it goes QB-QB and then it comes down to preference for whoever picks at 3. If the Giants don’t trade up I assume they’ll sign a veteran QB to hedge their bets with short term and then draft Travis Hunter, who would address their problem at CB with the bonus of being able to contribute at WR as well.

That leaves us with Abdul Carter, the consensus top pass rusher in the Draft with room to grow as a run stopper as well. The stress fracture is a concern, but at this point every prospect worth consideration has something to be cautious of. I think it’d be an easy decision to take him and keep our fingers crossed for the foot to heal properly.

1. Titans - Cam Ward
2. Browns - Shedeur Sanders
3. Giants - Travis Hunter
4. Patriots - Abdul Carter

 

[Rob0729]

The cost to trade up in this range of the draft is way too much. If you look at draft trade charts, the cost for the Patriots to trade up from #4 to #1 is the 12th overall pick, from #4 to #2 is the 21st overall pick, and from #4 to #3 is the 50th overall pick. So the price to trade up just one spot is a mid second pick and a first round pick to trade up any higher. That is way too much for a team that needs help everywhere.

There is zero chance the Pats trade up. There isn't a guy in this draft worth it. Even Carter and Hunter are not considered generational players worthy of that.

Even 50 cents on the dollar, it would likely take the Pats giving up their second round pick and more to trade up to #2.

 

[KCSVEN]

But if Hunter falls to us at 4, which is not crazy talk, then we could be offered a deal where we move down to 8 (Panthers) or 9 (Saints), and for that we get a 2025 2nd and a 2026 1st. Take Membou at 8-9, with two high 2nds and two high 3rds to follow. Package a 3rd & a 2nd to move up to the late 1st round, or both 2nds to move to mid 1st round..

Maybe but history suggests you’re not getting a future first for a non-QB
Obviously listen to trade offers and if someone throws in a future first, you have to consider it

The one thing is the top non-QB in the draft becomes a pro bowler like 80 to 90% of the time and the guys that are third fourth are more like 60% of the time and then starts to drop considerably after that so you are taking a risk giving up the elite player for a good player and a future unknown.

But yeah, of course you listen and see what you get offered. Based on history, I assume it won’t be enough but you never know

 

[PatsfanTN]

I am.

How so? Seriously, how do you know?