The Brutal Schedule Myth

2020 Patriots Season:
Upcoming Opponent:
Next Up: at Seahawks
Pick Results: NE: 51.3% at SEA: 48.7%
Sun
Sep 20th

Current Patriots Twitter Feed:

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Wall of Fame Member
This is atrocious logic. You're taking away the toughest opponent this year and the weakest opponent last year so you can call all the others "a wash". That's faulty analysis. You should look at them in order:

The 49ers are significantly better than the Eagles.
The Seahawks are significantly better than the Cowboys
The Rams are significantly better than the Giants
The Cardinals are moderately better than the Redskins.

All 4 out-of-conference games next year will be tougher than the 4 they played last year.
Let’s put this a different way.
If the patriots played the exact same schedule this year as last year but played the 49ers instead of the redskins, my method says their schedule got harder by the difference between those 2 teams.
Your method says slot the 9ers behind the chiefs as #2 and drop every other team down so you are comparing to a different team instead of the same one. It makes no sense.
 

lancerman

In the Starting Line-Up
Rivers threw for 4600 yards and completed 66% of his passes. They had a losing record in games he threw 0 or 1 pick.
Passing yards is one of least predictive stats there are for QB’s and has almost no correlation to team success
 

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Wall of Fame Member
Passing yards is one of least predictive stats there are for QB’s and has almost no correlation to team success
It shows that it was a bad team that needed to throw a lot. Tyrod Taylor doesn’t turn that into a good team.
Look if you want to think Tyrod Taylor makes a 5-11 great, go for it.
 

XLIX

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
Let’s put this a different way.
If the patriots played the exact same schedule this year as last year but played the 49ers instead of the redskins, my method says their schedule got harder by the difference between those 2 teams.
OK, but that's not happening except in your world of make believe so it is a stilly thing to bring up.
Your method says slot the 9ers behind the chiefs as #2 and drop every other team down so you are comparing to a different team instead of the same one. It makes no sense.
What makes no sense is to look at the OOC games and compare:

#1 this year versus #4 last year
#2 this year versus #1 last year
#3 this year versus #2 last year
#4 this year versus #3 last year

That is exactly what you are doing. Not to mention that even with that level of misleading, you still have to rely on the laughable notion that the Seahawks and Eagles are "a wash".... as are the Rams and Cowboys. Not quite.
 

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Wall of Fame Member
OK, but that's not happening except in your world of make believe so it is a stilly thing to bring up.
its called an analogy. It’s something you use to explain something to someone who doesn’t understand a concept, in this case you.

What makes no sense is to look at the OOC games and compare:

#1 this year versus #4 last year
#2 this year versus #1 last year
#3 this year versus #2 last year
#4 this year versus #3 last year

That is exactly what you are doing. Not to mention that even with that level of misleading, you still have to rely on the laughable notion that the Seahawks and Eagles are "a wash".... as are the Rams and Cowboys. Not quite.
It’s the absolute right way to do it.

I’ll explain again.
Last year you faced teams that were
9-7
8-8
7-9
3-13

this year you face teams that are
13-3
9-7
8-8
7-9

Your schedule changed by eliminating a 3-13 team and replacing them with a 13-3.
That is 100% factually correct.
Where they rank on your schedule is irrelevant it’s the change, especially when you are talking about one slice of the schedule.

Eagles 19 Seahawks 20 appear to be a wash but as I said people can feel free to disagree about projections but you may be right the 20 Rams will probably be way worse than the 19 cowboys.
 

XLIX

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
its called an analogy. It’s something you use to explain something to someone who doesn’t understand a concept, in this case you.
No it’s called playing make believe, which is what people do when they try to defend a moronic point.

All 4 of NE’s OOC games this year are tougher than the corresponding OOC teams they played last year. Your lame attempts at playing the shell game do nothing to change that.
 

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Wall of Fame Member
No it’s called playing make believe, which is what people do when they try to defend a moronic point.

All 4 of NE’s OOC games this year are tougher than the corresponding OOC teams they played last year. Your lame attempts at playing the shell game do nothing to change that.
You are wrong. I will make one last attempt to educate you then I will give up.

If your schedule, like the Patriots, includes 9 games that are the same as last year and the remaining 7 were ranked from best to worst in the league

6
8
10
12
14
16
30
Last year and this years are ranked
3
6
8
10
12
14
16

the difference in your schedule is not that all 7 games are harder. It’s that you replaced the 30th team with the 3rd.
It’s really quite simple.
 

XLIX

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
You are wrong. I will make one last attempt to educate you then I will give up.

If your schedule, like the Patriots, includes 9 games that are the same as last year and the remaining 7 were ranked from best to worst in the league

6
8
10
12
14
16
30
Last year and this years are ranked
3
6
8
10
12
14
16

the difference in your schedule is not that all 7 games are harder. It’s that you replaced the 30th team with the 3rd.
It’s really quite simple.
All you're doing is playing the shell game and hoping no one notices.
 

maust1013

Just Another Guy
PatsFans.com Supporter
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
Ring Johnson is on to something here cause BB teams have historically shown they rock when playing the Western divisions...oh wait...never mind.
 

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Wall of Fame Member
All you're doing is playing the shell game and hoping no one notices.
No I am comparing the schedules eliminating what is the same or similar and assessing what is left. It’s the only intelligent way to compare 2 schedules.
 

maust1013

Just Another Guy
PatsFans.com Supporter
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
Can’t make a blind man see.
Now I remember why I left this place to begin with.
Bwahahahahahahaha you have no high ground here, 'remembering why you left' lmfao.
Do you also recall why you lied about who you were when you came back to 'this place' or no?
 

STUB STUB

Practice Squad Player
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
""strength of schedule" and has little to no impact on the actual success of your team the upcoming year.
Interesting.

Take a look at this chart. You'll see how much strength of schedule changes during the year. In fact, it looks like the average difference in SoS ranking from the lowest to highest point during 2019 for each team is 25.7 - which is much closer to perfectly random (32) than perfectly predictable (0).

Regardless, even if our schedule does wind up being difficult it will be an efficient trial by fire to see which of the young players will be ready.
 

JPPT1974

On the Game Day Roster
Wonder how they will survive the 17 game schedule as there needs to be at least two byes!
 
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