The Brutal Schedule Myth

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

Stidham at Qb nothing’s guaranteed in the schedule.

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

The chargers were 5-11 and now have Tyrod Taylor at QB.

The chargers had rivers at QB . Also they have a promising rookie. The pats have stidham who is a second year QB. What’s your point?

 

[Ring 6]

The chargers had rivers at QB . Also they have a promising rookie. The pats have stidham who is a second year QB. What’s your point?

My point is the chargers weren’t a good team last year and have a crappy qb.

 

[Coolade]

Hmmmmmn.....

No mention of no Brady
No mention that vet LBs replaced by rookies

Ring6 thesis grade D+

Expect an uptick in completion % and also running game (oline) plus mobility.... which equates to major uptick in first downs and then points. Just gotta watch the picks... IMO. D will be good.

 

[Hyped]

Another important factor to consider is the actual schedule itself as it lists WHEN the games will be played.

For example, in 2019...we faced Big Ben when everyone else didn't...the Dolphins lost against us in Miami with AB....then beat us in Foxboro in week 17.

A lot can happen before and during the season that will affect things. However, the schedule is brutal as of today: Typical AFCE games without Brady should be harder, AFC West might be a toss up vs. the AFC North though, NFC West is the toughest division by far as they almost had 3 teams in the post-season last year and the Cardinals are only gonna be better, and then Houston and Baltimore again.

 

[ralmat55]

The Patriots play the same opponents as their AFC East rivals with the exception of 2 games. The Pats have to play Houston and Baltimore, but the Bills have to play the Titans and Steelers instead. Is that really a huge advantage for the Bills?

With the new playoff format, the advantage of the #1 seed has been enhanced by having the only bye. The #2 seed is badly disadvantaged by the new format. But, the disadvantage of not getting a bye has actually been diminished for the 3-7 seeds which now only has to deal with one team with a bye rather than two.

Winning your division, in other words, is really what matters. You’re going to open the playoffs at home. The chances of playing the #1 seed in the divisional round is lessened because with 3 games played in the wildcard round the odds improve that a wildcard team will win one of them and face the #1 seed.

 

[mgteich]

The Patriots play the same opponents as their AFC East rivals with the exception of 2 games. The Pats have to play Houston and Baltimore, but the Bills have to play the Titans and Steelers instead. Is that really a huge advantage for the Bills?

Yes

 

[mgcolby]

The chargers had rivers at QB . Also they have a promising rookie. The pats have stidham who is a second year QB. What’s your point?

And you think Tyrod is an upgrade over Rivers?

Tyrod is terrible and will probably give way to Herbert at some point this season.

 

[aluminum seats]

The handle for the season over/unders is nowhere as high as you perceive it to be. It's definitely true that the public (including me) loves to bet them. Heck, I used to fly out to Vegas in late August to bet the Patriots over, bet future games and sign my friends up for the Super Contest.

But the sharps, betting syndicates, quants, etc rarely if ever bet the over/unders for one simple reason: they don't want to tie up any part of their bankrolls for bets that will take around 4 months to resolve.

Yeah, I really have no idea how much they make on that or other bets. Just saying it’s so hard to know what schedules are really going to be like.

 

[Doctor DDS]

Assuming the Pats get at least 2 games in a row against the West they will be able to stay out there to reduce travel and help bring the team together. As of today I'd say the schedule is a tad harder than last year but since teams change so much and injuries happen it's really hard to say. This does not appear to be a classic Pats team so every game will likely be a big challenge.

 

[lancerman]

The chargers were 5-11 and now have Tyrod Taylor at QB.

A lot of that was Phillip Rivers nose dived

 

[lancerman]

And you think Tyrod is an upgrade over Rivers?

Tyrod is terrible and will probably give way to Herbert at some point this season.

Rivers through 20 interceptions last year, had his worst passer rating 13 years, had 23 TD’s which is his lowest in 13 years as well. If nothing else, Taylor is safer with the ball.

 

[Ring 6]

Rivers through 20 interceptions last year, had his worst passer rating 13 years, had 23 TD’s which is his lowest in 13 years as well. If nothing else, Taylor is safer with the ball.

Rivers threw for 4600 yards and completed 66% of his passes. They had a losing record in games he threw 0 or 1 pick.

 

[Ring 6]

A lot of that was Phillip Rivers nose dived

If you think Tyrod Taylor makes a bad team good we will have to disagree and accept this is a topic we just shouldn’t discuss.

 

[sb1]

If you think Tyrod Taylor makes a bad team good we will have to disagree and accept this is a topic we just shouldn’t discuss.

Taylor has better passer ratings every year as a Bill than Brady did for the Patriots last year. Weird eh?

 

[Ring 6]

Taylor has better passer ratings every year as a Bill than Brady did for the Patriots last year. Weird eh?

Oh Jesus we’re going to use the novice rudimentary non sensical formula in place of assessing how a QB plays now. Ok I’ll sit this one out.

 

[TB_Helmet]

I’d like to see the average difference between a given team’s schedule opponents w-l record from one year to the next.

In other words, how often does a “brutal schedule”, as calculated based on W-L the previous year, actually turn into a tough slate as many of those teams regress.

With all the variability and injuries in the NFL, my guess is there’s only a weak correlation between predicted toughness and actual toughness.

 

[XLIX]

So NFCE vs NFCW
philly vs Seattle is close to a wash
Dallas vs Rams is a wash
Giants vs Arizona is essentially a wash

so we play the 49ers instead of the redskins.

the schedule is the same with one game changing from weak opponent to strong opponent.

This is atrocious logic. You're taking away the toughest opponent this year and the weakest opponent last year so you can call all the others "a wash". That's faulty analysis. You should look at them in order:

The 49ers are significantly better than the Eagles.
The Seahawks are significantly better than the Cowboys
The Rams are significantly better than the Giants
The Cardinals are moderately better than the Redskins.

All 4 out-of-conference games next year will be tougher than the 4 they played last year.

 

[Ring 6]

This is atrocious logic. You're taking away the toughest opponent this year and the weakest opponent last year so you can call all the others "a wash". That's faulty analysis. You should look at them in order:

The 49ers are significantly better than the Eagles.
The Seahawks are significantly better than the Cowboys
The Rams are significantly better than the Giants
The Cardinals are moderately better than the Redskins.

All 4 out-of-conference games next year will be tougher than the 4 they played last year.

Why? I find 3 like games on the schedule balance them out and look at the 4th as the difference.

if you played a 14-2 and 3 8-8s vs a 3-13 and 3 8-8s the difference in you schedule is a 14-2 instead of a 13-3.

One will be more difficult, and 3 opponents are pretty much the same.

 

[TB_Helmet]

I’d like to see the average difference between a given team’s schedule opponents w-l record from one year to the next.

In other words, how often does a “brutal schedule”, as calculated based on W-L the previous year, actually turn into a tough slate as many of those teams regress.

With all the variability and injuries in the NFL, my guess is there’s only a weak correlation between predicted toughness and actual toughness.

A quick Google search reveals that adding up wins and losses of the opponents on your schedule is a terrible way to estimate "strength of schedule" and has little to no impact on the actual success of your team the upcoming year.

The Way Everybody Measures NFL Schedule Strength? It’s Wrong.