The Brandon Bolden bubble case + Poll

[Chevy]

We've seen this before in terms of Belichick wanting to keep guys that fans don't agree with. They seem to fly under the radar, but BB feels that their presence is important in terms of building a championship caliber roster.

We'll finally know one way or another how Belichick views Bolden, particularly with the improved competition and precious number of available spots. Is he a ST core player like some of us think? Or is he a guy who has simply been "good enough" to stay this long, but can be replaced with a similar player?

Very true. Over the last 17 season we've seen enough surprise cuts and trades to know one thing - you can't tell what BB will do until he does it.

 

[Deus Irae]

3 QBs
5 RBS
3 TEs
5 WRs
9 OL

That's 25

Slater
Allen
Gost
Cardona

That's 29, before you get to the defense. Even if you figure on just 20 defenders (8-4-8), you're already up to 49, and I don't think most people would be thinking the defense would carry just the 20. 22-23 seems more likely, so going with 22 would bring the number up to 51, with guys like Ebner and King fighting for ST spots and those last 2 jerseys.

At that point, questions like "Who's the 4th safety, and is Ebner capable of taking that role?", "Do they skimp and go with 8 OL?", "How much ST play are they expecting from Burkhead?", "Was the talk about Brissett accurate?", "Do they try getting by with 5 LBs?" start to really impact the final roster makeup. Bolden is an easy cut, financially speaking, so that may also play into things.

I don't think Bolden's a definite roster cut, but I don't see where he fits without there being a surprise cut to open up a spot, because I've got Burkhead playing a fair amount of STs.

 

[BlacknGold77]

Bolden is a key contributor and leader on special teams....basically lining up to be the next Izzo/Slater.

With how much Bill preaches on the altar of special teams, no way I see him cutting a player who plays that big of a roll on it.

Probably carry 1 less from the OL/TE group and stash them on the practice squad with call ups as needed for injuries

 

[maineman209]

The offensive half of the roster is going to look something like this:


(3) QB -- Brady, Garoppolo, Brissett
(8) OL -- Solder, Thuney, Andrews, Mason, Cannon, Garcia, Karras, [plus one other such as Fleming]
(3) TE -- Gronkowski, Allen, [plus one of Hollister, O'Shaughnessy, Lengel]
(1) FB -- Develin
(4) RB -- White, Burkhead, Gillislee, Lewis
(6) WR -- Cooks, Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell, Amendola, Slater

That's 25. Add another 25 on defense, the K, P and LS and you have your 53.


Barring unforeseen injury, who do you remove in order to make room for Bolden?

Kinda depends on who the 25 defensive players are, and on how many of them are high-value special teamers by the end of Camp.

 

[Nunchucks]

I would love to see Bolden replaced by Burkhead, but he will be on the final roster.

 

[maineman209]

The counter argument to that is that Burkhead is reportedly also a solid special teams guy.

True. But if Burkhead takes over Bolden's extensive ST snaps, he won't be seeing many game snaps with the offense unless one of the other RBs gets injured. At that point, he'll need to be just as accomplished as Bolden is in pass-pro/blitz pickup, among other things.

 

[Ring 6]

Since I haven't seen it posted yet this camp, I will throw in the old favorite, Is he eligible for PUP?


It seems like its special teams, not RB for Bolden. When the RB position hit the fan in 2015, and Bolden was the next man up, what did BB do? He brought 96 year old Steven Jackson in off his recliner. THAT more than any comments says what BB feels about Bolden as a RB. The on situation he has relied on him for in the past as a fill in is passing game RB but he is at least 4th in line there now.

 

[long distance]

Since I haven't seen it posted yet this camp, I will throw in the old favorite, Is he eligible for PUP?


It seems like its special teams, not RB for Bolden. When the RB position hit the fan in 2015, and Bolden was the next man up, what did BB do? He brought 96 year old Steven Jackson in off his recliner. THAT more than any comments says what BB feels about Bolden as a RB. The on situation he has relied on him for in the past as a fill in is passing game RB but he is at least 4th in line there now.

True. But to be fair the line was broken when Bolden's turn came.
Also he did “bounce back“ & saw more snaps and carries than S-Jax in AFCCG.

 

[Ring 6]

True. But if Burkhead takes over Bolden's extensive ST snaps, he won't be seeing many game snaps with the offense unless one of the other RBs gets injured. At that point, he'll need to be just as accomplished as Bolden is in pass-pro/blitz pickup, among other things.

I keep hearing this, but Bolden only played 264 snaps on special teams. 263 in 2015, 285 in 2014.
So we are talking about less than 20 snaps in the kicking game.
There is no reason Burkhead cannot do that and play something along the lines of the 527 snaps Blount played last year, if he wins that role from Gillislee. Assuming Gillislee wins that job, with Lewis and White also ahead of him, Burkhead is probably facing more like 300 snaps on offense, at the most.
Chung played 1006 on D and 201 on special teams.

 

[Ring 6]

True. But to be fair the line was broken when Bolden's turn came.
Also he did “bounce back“ & saw more snaps and carries than S-Jax in AFCCG.

That's because we trailed and threw the ball 56 times, and he was Whites backup. He only played 16 snaps. White played 57.
In the divisional round he played 4.

 

[mgteich]

Since I haven't seen it posted yet this camp, I will throw in the old favorite, Is he eligible for PUP?


It seems like its special teams, not RB for Bolden. When the RB position hit the fan in 2015, and Bolden was the next man up, what did BB do? He brought 96 year old Steven Jackson in off his recliner. THAT more than any comments says what BB feels about Bolden as a RB. The on situation he has relied on him for in the past as a fill in is passing game RB but he is at least 4th in line there now.

Bolden is needed as a STer, or not at all.

 

[mgteich]

If Burkhead is close to Bolden with regard to ability on ST's, Bolden will be cut.

These arguments have been made every year with regard to Ebner, Slater and King (and Freeny). Posters think that we can easily find a Ster with a lit less ability at ST's and more ability at a position, and that this is preferable to having top Sters.

Posters think that we have no problem replacing the ST reps of Mingo, Grissom and Bolden, Richards (and Freeny).
======

In addition, Slater is injured.

Finally, there is also a matter of ST role, in addition to reps. No one doubts that Slater is one of the top STer's in the league, even though he has far from the top number of ST reps.

I keep hearing this, but Bolden only played 264 snaps on special teams. 263 in 2015, 285 in 2014.
So we are talking about less than 20 snaps in the kicking game.
There is no reason Burkhead cannot do that and play something along the lines of the 527 snaps Blount played last year, if he wins that role from Gillislee. Assuming Gillislee wins that job, with Lewis and White also ahead of him, Burkhead is probably facing more like 300 snaps on offense, at the most.
Chung played 1006 on D and 201 on special teams.

==========
Many posters have 4 special teamers (including Slater), and having others as positional players. I suspect that Belichick's depth chart includes at least 3 more ST players. I'd have at least 4: Ebner, King, a front seven defender (Grissom and/or Freeny), and a protector and offensive STer (Bolden or replacement).

 

[long distance]

he was Whites backup.

not true. rotating running snaps w S-Jax. look at game or play-by-play list.
they were not many, that part is true. but that wasn't the point

i knew it was a mistake to reply the minute i pressed the button..

 

[jri37]

I said no but if Slater is going to be out for an extended period of time then he might just be the fill in for Slater although he really doesn't have that top line speed to be a gunner. I think this is the year he gets cut based on the depth they have at RB and the versatility they have with other players at other positions that have ST's ability.

 

[Ring 6]

3 QBs
5 RBS
3 TEs
5 WRs
9 OL

That's 25

Slater
Allen
Gost
Cardona

That's 29, before you get to the defense. Even if you figure on just 20 defenders (8-4-8), you're already up to 49, and I don't think most people would be thinking the defense would carry just the 20. 22-23 seems more likely, so going with 22 would bring the number up to 51, with guys like Ebner and King fighting for ST spots and those last 2 jerseys.

At that point, questions like "Who's the 4th safety, and is Ebner capable of taking that role?", "Do they skimp and go with 8 OL?", "How much ST play are they expecting from Burkhead?", "Was the talk about Brissett accurate?", "Do they try getting by with 5 LBs?" start to really impact the final roster makeup. Bolden is an easy cut, financially speaking, so that may also play into things.

I don't think Bolden's a definite roster cut, but I don't see where he fits without there being a surprise cut to open up a spot, because I've got Burkhead playing a fair amount of STs.

Interesting post.
I think 8 OL sounds right. I think #9 as well as 10 and 11 will be on the practice squad.
The LB question is tricky, because of the blur between DE and LB. Plus is Guy a DE or a DT. (I consider him both. The 4th DT plus a DE on early downs).
If its Guy plus 3 DTs, do we need 3 or 4 more DEs (Id say 4). But then which DEs also are LBs? What are we calling Rivers, McClellin, Langi, Grissom, Van Noy?

If I had to guess I would say this is the group to chose from

DT Branch Brown Valentine Guy
DE Flowers Wise Guy Ealy/McClellin/Van Noy/Langi/Rivers
LB HT Harris McClellin/Van Noy/Langi/Rivers Roberts

So depending on where we put McClellin, Van Noy, Rivers and Langi these 14 front 7 players give us 4 DTs, 4-8 DEs, 3-7 LBs.

I think there is room for all 14 but not nearly enough playing time for all 14. There are 11 players to fill the 4 DE/LB roles, in the nickel base. How much can rookies be counted on? If Wise, Rivers and Langi are inactive or deep on the bench, keeping all 14 gives us 8 players in the mix for DE/LB roles, which seems like the right amount to be in the rotation.

I think that Ealy, and to a lesser extent McClellin and Van Noy sticking depends on how much playing time is expected of the rookies.


Of course this all assumes Grissom is cut, but he could be plugged in in place of any of the DE/LB guys.

I think Burkhead can take Boldens st snaps pretty easily, but if Gillislee is out long term that becomes more tricky.
Brisset is gone to the practice squad unless BB really sees something in him and wants to protect him (which his actions last year with the kid do seem to indicate).

 

[Ring 6]

i knew it was a mistake to reply the minute i pressed the button..

Well if you want no one elses viewpoint, you are right.

Its pointless to get into a discussion about the specific role of a guy who went from 4 snaps to 16. I will stick with my point that when it was Boldens turn BB called for a retired player to come in and play ahead of him as indication of how he feels about his RB skills, and leave it at that.

 

[tasmlab]

He's gonna get cut one of these years, but I don't think it's this year.

Also, I think he's a much better RB than Slater is a WR.

Bolden might even be a better WR than Slater is a WR.

Bolden is usually dressed for the game day 46, yes? Sort of defacto suggests that he's at least more valuable as a contributor than 7 guys on the 53 any given week.

And he's made the roster against all odds for five seasons.

I voted 'yes'.

 

[Ring 6]

If Burkhead is close to Bolden with regard to ability on ST's, Bolden will be cut.

These arguments have been made every year with regard to Ebner, Slater and King (and Freeny). Posters think that we can easily find a Ster with a lit less ability at ST's and more ability at a position, and that this is preferable to having top Sters.

Posters think that we have no problem replacing the ST reps of Mingo, Grissom and Bolden, Richards (and Freeny).
======

In addition, Slater is injured.

Finally, there is also a matter of ST role, in addition to reps. No one doubts that Slater is one of the top STer's in the league, even though he has far from the top number of ST reps.



==========
Many posters have 4 special teamers (including Slater), and having others as positional players. I suspect that Belichick's depth chart includes at least 3 more ST players. I'd have at least 4: Ebner, King, a front seven defender (Grissom and/or Freeny), and a protector and offensive STer (Bolden or replacement).

Slater, King, Jones, Ebner are 4 st only players.
If Jones earns pt as a corner, he is not special teams only but fills the same role.
Many players could fill Grissoms role. If that weren't the case he wouldn't have been cut last camp. Devlin or a 3rd TE would also be in the mix for the type of snaps Grissom got.

You seem to have it as special teams only being a position, but if a top special teamer can also play and contribute at a position, they are dislodging a st only player because it adds to the roster flexibility.
Valuing special teams means you keep good st players around, but if those players can contribute on offense or defense such as Chung, McCourty, Devlin, etc its a plus, without degrading the sts.

 

[long distance]

Chatham joining debate

 

[maineman209]

I keep hearing this, but Bolden only played 264 snaps on special teams. 263 in 2015, 285 in 2014.
So we are talking about less than 20 snaps in the kicking game.
There is no reason Burkhead cannot do that and play something along the lines of the 527 snaps Blount played last year, if he wins that role from Gillislee. Assuming Gillislee wins that job, with Lewis and White also ahead of him, Burkhead is probably facing more like 300 snaps on offense, at the most.
Chung played 1006 on D and 201 on special teams.

Bolden was active for 14 games in 2016. He played on all four ST units, meaning that he blocked for Pats returners and also attempted to tackle opposing returners. He averaged 18.9 ST snaps/game active. He averaged less than ONE offensive snap per game active.
... Blount had zero ST snaps on the season
... White had 13 total ST snaps (as a returner)
... Lewis had 8 total ST snaps (as a returner)

In 2014, Bolden averaged 17.8 ST snaps/game and 4.6 offensive snaps per game.
... Vereen had zero ST snaps
... Blount had zero ST snaps
... Ridley had zero ST snaps
... Gray had 46 ST snaps.

In 2015, Bolden was pressed into service as an RB to cover for injuries. In those games where he wasn't used significantly on offense, he averaged over 19 ST snaps/game. In those games where he WAS used on offense, he averaged less than 12 ST snaps. Meanwhile ...
... Blount had zero ST snaps
... White had 2 ST snaps
... Lewis had 8 ST snaps

In 2016, BURKHEAD averaged 16.6 ST snaps per game through the first 10 games. During the last six games of the season, when he was a significant part of the Bengals offense, he averaged 7 ST snaps per game. Meanwhile:
... Hill had zero ST snaps
... Bernard had zero ST snaps
... Peerman had 112 ST snaps, but only 13 total offensive snaps

Hypothetically, it's possible that Burkhead could cover all of Bolden's ST snaps per game, AND all of the lead rusher's snaps per game. However, there's a pattern in the stats above that indicates to me that it's highly unlikely that the Pats will use their lead rusher (or any of their top three RBs) on anywhere near that many ST snaps per game.