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The Binkie Thread

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by scott99, Mar 18, 2017.

  1. scott99

    scott99 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Have another WR. I know it's probably a pipe dream, don't think we are gonna select receivers. But Robert Davis, WR Georgia State. 6'3" 219, ran a 4.44 at the combine and had a 41 inch vertical !
     
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  2. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    He almost exactly matches the measurements and test numbers that Julio Jones put up; exciting prospect who had pretty good production and looks like a nice downfield threat. I'd love to draft him late. :)
     
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  3. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Pro Bowl Player

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    Too many tight ends to list as binkies.

    Leggett, Engram, Njoku, Everrett and Hodges. Gonna just take Howard off the list unless they land 11 for Butler. Never seen a deeper draft at this position.

    I realize we have Gronk and Allen but I'd be pretty stoked to have one of these players on the team.
     
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  4. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    Throw in Shaheen too.
     
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  5. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Did I miss the moment we jumped off Kittle train?
    I know the guy is climbing boards like crazy but Id still like to see him wearing the Patriots blue..
     
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  6. I.M. Fletcher

    I.M. Fletcher 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Full steam ahead for me.

    Just a matter of the round he goes in now. If he's moved up to a 3rd round value, not sure we can afford that cost, unless we acquire more picks.
     
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  7. Gabriel_p94

    Gabriel_p94 On the Game Day Roster

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    Im still hoping the pats take engram. With gronk and allen doing most of the blocking i think the offense can use a move tight end like him. Gronk and engram I think could match Gronk and hernandez.
     
  8. I.M. Fletcher

    I.M. Fletcher 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I think it's worth thinking of Gronkowski as our move TE going forward. Counting on him inline going forward with all his back issues is a losing strategy.
     
  9. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    I was thinking about guys going high. Had seen a post, just before I made the comment about how excited teams are to draft Shaheen. Nothing more complicated than that he was fresh in my mind.
     
  10. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Was just joking a bit while adding his name to the list.
    I know the love of Kittle is solid here.


    There's a board that has him going in the 4th before Pats pick actually but mostly should be available in the 5th. Then again some still don't even have him on their boards. When reality kicks in (OL/QB etc needs) Id guess he'll be there low enough for the Pats to take him if they so desire.
    ___

    EDIT: BTW - interestingly Leggett is falling on most boards - and if that becomes the reality I think he would be a serious target for Day 3
     
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    Last edited: Mar 27, 2017
  11. maineman209

    maineman209 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    FWIW ...

    Taking the medians of the current (within the past week) rankings of TE prospects from six draft sites, and combining those with the medians of "when" TEs were selected over the past six drafts, yields the following projections:

    Rnd-1
    - Howard (if a TE is actually selected in the 1st, it seem most likely to be this guy)

    Rnd-2
    - Njoku and Engram

    Rnd-3
    - Hodges, Shaheen, Everett (possibly one of these in the late-2nd)
    [Typically 4-6 TEs are off the board by the end of the 3rd]

    Rnd-4
    - Butt, Leggett (possibly one of these in the late-3rd)

    Rnd-5
    - Roberts, Sprinkle, Jonnu Smith*
    [Typically, another 4-6 TEs go off the board in rounds 4 & 5]
    *Jonnu Smith is my binky ... which pretty much guarantees that BB won't draft him.

    Rnd-6
    - Saubert, Kittle, Hikutini (possibly one in the late-5th)

    Rnd-7/FA
    - Jarwin, Auclair, Daniels, Price
    [Anywhere from 3-8 TEs may go off the board in rounds 6 & 7]
    - At least 20 other TE prospects have been mentioned on at least two sites as potential 7th/FA possibilities. The four I've included are merely the most frequently mentioned.

    This projects 18 TE prospects will be drafted. The median number drafted over the past six drafts is actually 12. However, 19 were drafted in 2015 (with none in the 1st) and 16 were drafted in 2013 (with one in the first), so this actually runs toward the high end.

    _____________
    DISCLAIMER:
    This is merely my own, personal, back-of-the-envelope, pseudo-statistical musing based on popular "talent rankings" (NOT round projections or mock drafts) - some of which are almost certainly heavily weighted toward "gronkness" and/or receiving highlight reels/mix tapes - and likely to change a bit over the next couple-three weeks. Not accounted for are such trivial variables as "team needs", actual objective scouting, or however the Browns may screw everything up with their 8 gazillion draft picks.
     
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  12. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Great breakdown @maineman209 -- very informative and well structured. This draft is pretty special for TE. Just by way of illustration: Hikutini would probably be closer to a 3rd rounder in another year, and yet he's not even in my top 10 favorites for 2017. Very good route runner, though.
     
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  13. maineman209

    maineman209 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Thanks!

    My OCD ;) inspired me to do the same thing for RBs and has me considering DEs, LBs, etc.
     
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  14. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Please do! It's helpful to see each position grouped that way, even if it's not 100% accurate or predictive.
     
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  15. maineman209

    maineman209 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    FWIW ... RB Draft Round projections ...

    Taking the medians of the "current" (within the past week or so) rankings of RB prospects from six draft sites, and combining those with the medians of "when" RBs were selected over the past six drafts, yields the following projections:

    Rnd-1
    - Fournette, Cook
    [Hard to guess on the number of 1st-rounders. Since the recent high of 3 in 2012, the last four drafts have produced 0, 0, 2, & 1 1st-round RBs.]

    Rnd-2
    - McCaffrey, Kamara, Mixon
    [McCaffrey could go at the end of Rnd-1. Maybe.]
    [Mixon is a wildcard. Sites still have his talent-ranking as tied with Kamara at #5. But, if everybody (except perhaps the Browns) still sees him as "poison", all the prospects from here down to wherever he falls to would move up a notch.]

    Rnd-3 (possibly one of these in the late-2nd)
    - Foreman, Gallman, Mack
    [Typically, 6-8 RBs off the board by the end of the 3rd. There were only 4 in 2016, but that's the outlier.]

    Rnd-4
    - Perine, Hunt*, Hill, McNichols (possibly one of these in the late-3rd)
    *Hunt is one of my binkies, so you should probably take him off all your Pats mocks right now.

    Rnd-5
    - Jamaal Williams, Conner*, Clement, Dayes
    [Typically, another 6-8 RBs off the board in rounds 4 & 5]
    *Conner is another binkie. So, y'know, "buh-bye!"

    Rnd-6
    - Logan, Pumphrey, McGuire, Aaron Jones (possibly one of these in the late-5th)

    Rnd-7/FA
    - De'Veon Smith, Joe Williams, Rushel Shell, Taquan Mizzell
    [Anywhere from 3-9 RBs may go off the board in rounds 6 & 7]
    - At least 20 other RB prospects have been mentioned on at least two sites as potential 7th/FA possibilities. The four I've included are merely the most frequently mentioned.

    This projects 24 RB prospects drafted, which matches the recent highs set in 2011 & 2013. The median number drafted over the past six drafts is 20. In median-count (or lower) RB draft years, another 1-2 decent players often come out of the UDFA signees.

    Random speculation #1: If a majority of teams indeed view this as a strong RB class, that might work to drive the total draftee count lower, especially in rounds 2 & 3. Some teams may wait, figuring that they're still likely to pick up a decent RB later. In 2016, 16 of the total 20 RBs drafted were taken in rounds 4-7.

    In addition to the RB draft being fairly volatile in total count, it seems to me that it's often fairly volatile in terms of prospect order, even moreso in the later rounds. Prospects who "everybody" expected to go in the 2nd or 3rd often drop to the 5th for no apparent reason, and sometimes others who were thought of as 6th-7th round talent get taken in the 4th. This happens to some degree with all positions, of course, but it seems a bit more frequent with RBs.

    Random speculation #2: If "heftier" RBs actually are a thing this year, guys like Foreman, Perine, Conner and De'Veon Smith could go a bit higher than they're ranked, and a guy like Elijah Hood, Rushel Shell or someone who's not even on our radar (nominally UDFAs), could get picked in the 6th.

    _____________
    DISCLAIMER:
    This is merely my own, personal, back-of-the-envelope, pseudo-statistical musing based on popular "talent rankings" (NOT round projections or mock drafts) - at least some of which are based on Combine/Proday "wow-level" measureables and/or cherry-picked highlight reels/mix tapes - and likely to change a bit over the next couple-three weeks. Not accounted for are such trivial variables as "team needs", actual objective scouting, or however the Browns may screw everything up with their 8 gazillion draft picks.
     
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  16. maineman209

    maineman209 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    RB Ball Security "bonus stat" ... touches per fumble ...

    An RB prospect's ball security is a largely ignored stat, but perhaps it shouldn't be. The common wisdom is that "NFL coaching will fix that", but that fact is that it usually doesn't. If anything, an RB's fumble rate typically gets at least a bit worse in the pros, at least for a couple years.

    And sometimes it doesn't improve until the guy has only a year or two left on his rookie contract, which is what makes drafting a college fumbler a risky investment. Ridley never improved. Faulk did, but it took 5 years or so under Belichick's coaching

    The cautionary tale for me is Ameer Abdullah. His outlandish 4-year production (rushing, receiving AND returns) and "wow-factor" testing numbers so completely overshadowed his abysmal career fumble rate (1/36) that guys like Kiper were projecting him to go in the 1st round. The Lions took him in at #54. And, in his rookie season, his fumble rate got even worse (1/27).

    More recent examples:

    Elliott - 1/163 college, 1/71 NFL rookie season
    Devontae Booker - 1/71 college, 1/51 NFL rookie

    OTOH ...
    Jordan Howard - 1/112 college, 1/140 rookie
    CJ Prosise - 1/46 college, 0/189 rookie
    So, some guys do improve.
    ----------

    The Worst of the 2017 RB Class:

    KAMARA - 1/32 (1/44, career) ... Ameer Abdullah level
    D'Angelo Henderson - 1/41 (1/51, career)
    Justin Davis - 1/41 (1/58, career)
    Joe Williams - 1/44 (1/48, career)
    FOURNETTE - 1/48 (1/85, career)
    MIXON - 1/50 (1/65, career)
    Tarik Cohen - 1/50 (1/97, career)
    MACK - 1/51 (1/54 career)
    COOK - 1/54 (1/59, career)
    FOREMAN - 1/55 (1/56, career)

    [As a comp, Ridley fumbled 1/80 with the Pats, but only 1/130 during his last season at LSU.]


    The Best:

    HUNT - 0/303 (1/855 career touches)
    Ogubowale - 0/125 (0/390 career touches)
    [DJ Foster - 0/114, 1/167 career]

    HILL - 1/358
    McCAFFREY - 1/314
    McGuire - 1/265
    [James White - 1/261 college, 1/213 with the Pats]

    CONNER - 1/237
    DE'VEON SMITH - 1/197
    Pumphrey - 1/189


    The "Middle":
    GALLMAN - 1/126 (1/148, career)
    Shell - 1/125 (1/93, career)
    Jahad Thomas - 1/125 (1/86,career)
    JAMAAL WILLIAMS - 1/121 (1/157, career)
    PERINE - 1/103 (1/121, career)
     
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  17. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    Another reason why he's becoming my expected Patriots pick at the position. Big back that runs hard, very good blocker and rarely fumbles plus from a big school.
     
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  18. I.M. Fletcher

    I.M. Fletcher 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    He's got a lot of BJGE to him.
     
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  19. captain stone

    captain stone Pro Bowl Player

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    Speaking of RBs and before I get to my binkie, what do folks here think of Wyoming RB Brian Hill in the 4th/5th rounds? I would not take him ahead of Samaje Perine, but I absolutely would take him ahead of Jeremy McNichols & Marlon Mack, and would consider him in a group that includes Wayne Gallman, Kareem Hunt, James Connor & D'Onte Foreman.

    As far as binkies are concerned, I'm more of a Draft the Best Player Available at a Position of Need guy. However, there is one player whom I would not hesitate to take with any pick at 32 or beyond, provided that there are no surprise droppers who are expected to be gone by then: Temple LT/LG/RG/RT Dion Dawkins. He would automatically become our #6 OLman, a game-day active at both Swing Tackle and Swing Guard, and an eventual starter at either Tackle positions.
     
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  20. sircole

    sircole On the Game Day Roster

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    I actually like Brian Hill better than Samaje Perine.

    From the videos I saw on draft breakdown, he does a much better job on his blocks/blitz pickups and looked smoother running routes in the flat.

    He's patient with his blocks, and when blocking breaks down, he cuts up forward for positive yardage instead bouncing to the outside for losses.

    Also, he has the outside speed for our stretch running plays.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 29, 2017

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