Tebow, Blount, Edelman

[Oinko]

If this thread was resting in the hospital, I would sneak in the room and hold a pillow over its face.

There, there, little thread. There, there.

 

[Concerned_Citizen]

So you are saying that if a player passes through waivers, that means no teams want him. This is your logic is it? There aren't perhaps other reasons for a player passing through waivers - like having to pick up his contract for example.

......it took well over a month PAST clearing waivers before someone took an interrest.

 

[mgteich]

OK, so we have established that it is absurd to think that Tebow was worth a couple of million a year, well below starting quarterback salary.

Then, why did not one of the quarterback-needy teams sign Tebow after he passed through waivers. Surely, Tebow would have welcomed almost any opportunity to compete for a starting role. But then, perhaps, no team thought that he could compete for a starting role, at least for them.

Then, why did not one of the quarterback-needy teams sign Tebow as an inexpensive backup quarterback. Surely, Tebow was worth a million or so for that role. But no one did.

Tebow ending up signing with a team that will give him a chance to make the roster and PERHAPS to compete for a backup role in 2014.

I think the GM's of the quarterback-needy teams have told us the current (and perhaps the potential) value of Tebow.

Perhaps only teams with great depth can afford to consider using a roster spot for Tebow.

Why would anyone want to absorb the costs associated with picking up ON waivers. I personally like the fact that the NYJ have to pay more to the Broncos than the Pats are paying for Tim due to picking him up OFF waivers.

P.S. manxman2601 said it better then me as I was composing this post.

SF

 

[manxman2601]

......it took well over a month PAST clearing waivers before someone took an interrest.

Richard Seymour is still available. Does this mean teams don't want him? Or does it mean that a common ground between his needs and team's needs haven't been found yet?

Teams had their rosters set, they weren't really considering Tebow as a starter, so why would they put themselves on the hook for 2.5m. Tebow got himself signed after having passed through waivers for obvious reasons. If this is a Tebow-phobe gotcha!, it's one of the worst ones yet (and that's a really low bar).

 

[Demosthenes]

There's at least one major flaw in using points allowed as the only metric to evaluate a defense. It doesn't take into account how those points were allowed.

Points are scored against a team on a pick 6. How is that the defense's fault?

Player fumbles at his own 5 yard line, other team recovers. Other team then scores a TD. Why is that all the defense's fault?

Player returns a kickoff 80 yards, offense scores a TD. Why is that all their fault?

Team recovers onside kick, defense is gassed and gives up points. Why is that all their fault?

If you're giving up 400 yards to Dan Orlovsky but only give up 14 points, chances are you were very lucky instead of good.

Never claimed that the stat was perfect. If I find one that is, I'll be sure to let you know about it right after I retire with the millions I'll make betting in Vegas

What I know is this. When you look up at the scoreboard, the only thing that determines who won and who lost is the points on the board. If your defense stops the other team from scoring a lot of points every game, that's good. If they don't, that's bad.

Even when looking at total pts allowed, the numbers are skewed for the Pats as opponents have usually have more opportunities to score, given the pace of the Pats offense and their scoring frequency.

 

[Concerned_Citizen]

Richard Seymour is still available. Does this mean teams don't want him? Or does it mean that a common ground between his needs and team's needs haven't been found yet?

Teams had their rosters set, they weren't really considering Tebow as a starter, so why would they put themselves on the hook for 2.5m. Tebow got himself signed after having passed through waivers for obvious reasons. If this is a Tebow-phobe gotcha!, it's one of the worst ones yet (and that's a really low bar).

Every man, woman, and child on this planet knew he was going to be released. If they thought Tebow was worth his salt as a QB, trust me, SOMEONE in need of a starter or capable backup would have made room for him.

Most second or third stringers are a dime a dozen and very few teams have ANY qualms of dumping one of them if they thought a guy who is better could be had on the cheap, and Tebow fit the bill as far as being had on the cheap.

As for the Richard Seymour angle, it is a flawed analogy. Seymour wants a huge chunk of change, much like Dwight Freeney and Abraham wanted. The market is well below what they were asking and the only reason Dwight Freeney got what he did, when he did was because the Chargers got desperate after they lost yet another guy on the defensive line.

Tebow wants no such contract and could have been had for a half eaten ham sandwich. You mean to tell me teams were set with all the Caleb Hanie types that they thought there was no room for Tebow if he were even a third as good as a lot of you seem to think he is?

Nope. Try again. They aren't picking him up (ON THE CHEAP) because they have serious doubts as to whether he is actually better than the "projects" on their roster. They know he has trouble passing, and they know he still needs a LOT of work to be an NFL caliber passer.

Plus.... Most teams don't want him because the hooplah surrounding him doesn't match his skillset. The Pats can probably keep most of that in check, but the jury is out on whether they will keep him at all after camp, let alone keep him at QB.

 

[Demosthenes]

Sure but there was still still no way of knowing for sure until he steps on the field. Clearly Elway thought it was a gamble worth taking over the alternative.

He refused to commit to TT being the long term starter in Denver so obviously he had the idea that someone else at QB would give them a better chance to win.

And again, let's put this in perspective. It's Peyton Freaking Manning that we are talking about.

Hmm, a young inexperience dual threat QB that still needs time to develop (with no guaranty that he will become much better) OR, a first ballot Hall of Famer, coming off an injury, who doctors have cleared to play and have said that he'll be fine.

 

[Concerned_Citizen]

What I know is this. When you look up at the scoreboard, the only thing that determines who won and who lost is the points on the board. If your defense stops the other team from scoring a lot of points every game, that's good. If they don't, that's bad.

It is also a gross over-simplification too that no coach can hang their hat on. The inevitable question will ALWAYS come up is.... How does one go about ending up with more points than the other team?

A better offense and a better defense goes a long way. Sure, it isn't 100% in the same way abstinance prevents pregnancy, but one must evaluate if their offense will score more points passing the ball with a real QB or plugging in a RB who can't even complete HALF his passes. It might work if the defense is one of those "out of this world" types like the 2000 Ravens or 2002 Buccaneers who had defenses that could carry Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson to a title.

So far, the best argument for Tebow is a relatively small sample size of a really mindblowing hall of fame bound record of 9-7. (Yes I was being sarcastic.) "He just wins" is about all they can say, but nobody can explain exactly how it happens or why it works. (Well, it works well enough not to have an 8-8 record.) Simply put, he got lucky one year, but most paid to evaluate on his abilities recognize it for what it was.... a fluke.

 

[manxman2601]

SOMEONE in need of a starter or capable backup would have made room for him.

They did. Us!

 

[Demosthenes]

OK, so we have established that it is absurd to think that Tebow was worth a couple of million a year, well below starting quarterback salary.

Then, why did not one of the quarterback-needy teams sign Tebow after he passed through waivers. Surely, Tebow would have welcomed almost any opportunity to compete for a starting role. But then, perhaps, no team thought that he could compete for a starting role, at least for them.

Then, why did not one of the quarterback-needy teams sign Tebow as an inexpensive backup quarterback. Surely, Tebow was worth a million or so for that role. But no one did.

Tebow ending up signing with a team that will give him a chance to make the roster and PERHAPS to compete for a backup role in 2014.

I think the GM's of the quarterback-needy teams have told us the current (and perhaps the potential) value of Tebow.

Perhaps only teams with great depth can afford to consider using a roster spot for Tebow.

Small little problem. Why did all 32 teams in the league pass on Brady through 5 rounds of the draft ?

Why did all 32 teams pass on Tony Romo for the entire draft ?

The only thing that it tells you is that 32 teams held certain beliefs. It doesn't tell you whether those beliefs were correct or not.

If you want to argue that it's different, because teams have had a chance to see Tebow, then I'll offer up Steve Young as evidence. Tampa Bay wanted to get rid of him and every report that I have ever seen has said that only 1 coach/team was interested, and that of course was Bill Walsh and the 49'ers. Even he got questioned about the trade.

 

[Concerned_Citizen]

Wow, really ? New QB comes in to take over as the starter and the former starter is sent packing ? I mean, THAT never happens in the NFL (Kurt Warner, twice, cough cough.)

Thanks for showing your complete lack of understanding of organizational dynamics. When a leader is replaced, even one who was just tagged as the "interim" holder of the position, they are often moved out when the new leader steps in. It's slightly different if a backup comes in for just a couple of games, or if the starter goes down to injury and comes back.

Oh come off it!! Tebow was a young guy described by most, including Elway himself as being "very raw." It would have given Tebow a couple of years to develop, and almost everyone would agree that if he could master the passing game, he might be one of the most dangerous QBs to play the game. But they saw enough of him behind the scenes to not believe in the guy. It had nothing to do with "out with the former, in with the new." Cuz he was still cheap enough and young enough to sit on the bench and learn for a couple years.

As for the offense, wow, really, bringing in Peyton Manning made them better ? You don't say. Of course, it was all him and no one else. Didn't matter that Decker and DT finally had some experience under the belts and another off season. Doesn't matter that Denver effectively had a new OC named Peyton Manning. Doesn't matter that they brought in a good TE in Jacob Tamme and basically ran the offense through him. And yes, bringing in Brandon Stokely DID help on a number of fronts, which is why they brought him in. He had familiarity with Manning and was a seasoned vet WR who could help Decker and DT in the WR room.

There's no way one offseason made the two receivers among the worst in the league to toward the top. It starts with having a QB that can actually get them the ball. No more dirt missiles and balls thrown well behind receivers. No more scrambling for a yard when there are open receivers 15 yards downfield. Plus, it works wonders when the QB actually looks for his checkdowns rather than running at the first sign of trouble.

Sure, they had Stokley, but Eddie Royal wasn't half bad. ...and yest Tamme was an upgrade, but the rest of the offense was essentially the same. The biggest difference though in the passing game starts with the guy throwing the ball. Tebow just wasn't good at it. ...and no, the odd strike now and then doesn't prove that he can do it unless he does it consistently, which he hasn't.

Fundumentally, Tebow was simply a terrible QB, and it showed for most of the games. As a runner though, I'd put him against almost anyone. So why fight it? Make a position switch that allows him to use those instincts.

 

[Concerned_Citizen]

They did. Us!

The jury is still out on if they think he is a capable backup.

IF... he makes the team, I believe it will be in more of a swiss army knife role. A little bit of this and a little bit of that. Not a QB.

...and it STILL took well over a month after he cleared waivers and most teams that might have had use for him came out in the media and said, "NOT ME!!!!"

Are you guys REALLY going to sit there and tell me that all those teams recognized that Tebow was a great player, but were set on some scrub they plugged in at #3? You don't even have his 2 million dollar contract as an excuse because it was gone.

 

[Demosthenes]

It is also a gross over-simplification too that no coach can hang their hat on. The inevitable question will ALWAYS come up is.... How does one go about ending up with more points than the other team?

A better offense and a better defense goes a long way. Sure, it isn't 100% in the same way abstinance prevents pregnancy, but one must evaluate if their offense will score more points passing the ball with a real QB or plugging in a RB who can't even complete HALF his passes. It might work if the defense is one of those "out of this world" types like the 2000 Ravens or 2002 Buccaneers who had defenses that could carry Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson to a title.

So far, the best argument for Tebow is a relatively small sample size of a really mindblowing hall of fame bound record of 9-7. (Yes I was being sarcastic.) "He just wins" is about all they can say, but nobody can explain exactly how it happens or why it works. (Well, it works well enough not to have an 8-8 record.) Simply put, he got lucky one year, but most paid to evaluate on his abilities recognize it for what it was.... a fluke.

Actually, the guys over at ColdHardFootball facts have explained EXACTLY why it worked and they've debunked the notion that it was due to a stellar defense.



The Case for Tim Tebow, NFL Quarterback

FIVE - Tebow is far more statistically proficient than he’s given credit for.

The average NFL fan or analyst judges a quarterback merely by his passing abilities. And we understand why: NFL games are won and lost almost exclusively by a QB’s ability to pass the football efficiently.

In fact, we’ve written about this phenomenon incessantly for years.

But Tebow clearly plays a different game: padding often inefficient days passing the football with highly efficient performances running the ball, while generally keeping turnovers at a very low rate.

His 2.7 percent turnover rate (15 in 559 touches) is not only good, it’s one of the best in the history of football. CHFF’s Captain Comeback looked at the career turnover rate of every QB in NFL history back in November.

Tebow doesn’t yet qualify for the list (min. 1,500 attempts). But among qualifiers, only Aaron Rodgers was better at protecting the football.

Tebow also rates much higher than just his passing numbers would indicate if you look at him through the prism of CHFF Real QB Rating, which measures all aspects of QB play, not just passing.

Tebow’s career Real QB Rating of 81.2 would have been good enough for 12th in the NFL last year – better than the Real QB Rating of every single team that fired a coach or GM.

Keep in mind that Real QB Rating may be the most important stat in football: Teams that won the Real QB Rating battle went 218-37 (.855) in 2012, consistent with year-after-year results. No stat in football has a higher “Correlation to Victory.”

Put another way: Tebow is better than anyone realizes in the single most important stat in football, other than final score.

Just some remarks on the quoted piece above. The thing about Tebow is that he plays the QB position differently than just about anybody else and it's hard for some people to wrap their heads around. They try to measure him and judge him the same way you would Brady or others and it just doesn't work.

It's kind of like having a different style of pitcher in baseball. Most people want (and are used) to guys who throw 98 mph fastballs that overpower the hitters. Then you have guys like Greg Maddux who didn't throw hard, but had a ridiculous change up and an 85 mph fastball that danced around so much that guys had lots of trouble hitting it.

Or you have a knuckle baller like RA ****ey.

They do things differently, outside of the norm, but it works.

 

[Concerned_Citizen]

Small little problem. Why did all 32 teams in the league pass on Brady through 5 rounds of the draft ?

Why did all 32 teams pass on Tony Romo for the entire draft ?

The draft is a crap-shoot. The difference here is that all 32 team this offseason saw what Tebow did since he joined the NFL and didn't come away nearly as impressed as you were.

 

[belichick010405]

They did. Us!

Quod rota orbis rotundus quod rotundus , rotundus quod rotundus , rotundus quod rotundus.

 

[manxman2601]

The jury is still out on if they think he is a capable backup.

IF... he makes the team, I believe it will be in more of a swiss army knife role. A little bit of this and a little bit of that. Not a QB.

...and it STILL took well over a month after he cleared waivers and most teams that might have had use for him came out in the media and said, "NOT ME!!!!"

Are you guys REALLY going to sit there and tell me that all those teams recognized that Tebow was a great player, but were set on some scrub they plugged in at #3? You don't even have his 2 million dollar contract as an excuse because it was gone.

Who has said anything about Tebow being a "great player"? Seriously, quote something where someone has said that.

Tebow's a very good #3 and a potential #2 QB. I've claimed nothing more for him than that. Of course teams aren't going to trip over themselves to sign that up. How this reflects badly on Tebow or the Patriots is beyond me.

 

[manxman2601]

Quod rota goes rotundus quod rotundus , rotundus quod rotundus , rotundus quod rotundus.

What's latin for boring?

 

[belichick010405]

What's latin for boring?

Illud ut insisto a ludio ludius quisnam eram non vindicatum secundum res incidere.

In other words - followers of a player that was not claimed off of waivers because according to you, his salary is voided even though, if he was a starting caliber quarterback, would be a very reasonable salary. I don't know too many teams that wouldn't hire a starting caliber quarterback at $2 million or less.

 

[situational_awareness]

Do you want a crash course on the dynamics of Urban Meyer's spread option or would you just like to admit that you made a baseless claim, got caught with your pants down because you could not back it up, and move on?

If the play calling was so predictable, as you say, it should be relatively easy to point to draw plays out of the shotgun, as an example, and tell me why they were so predictable.

Run, run, pass.

There you go. You're welcome.

 

[situational_awareness]

Only because people are making excuses for TT's lousy performance in the 2011 AFC Division playoff game against a historically bad Patriots pass defense, and instead hyping up TT's game the week before against a crippled and overrated Steeler team like it was a Super Bowl championship performance by a HOF QB. Probably hoping we forget the former. This is a typical Tebow fan argument. "But...but...he beat the Steelers!1!1!1!1!"

We are trying to put it in the perspective where it belongs.

Who made excuses for Tebow? The excuses were made for how the #1 passing defense in the NFL was actually a bad defense. Only thing I said was the play calling was predictable, but I didn't say that Tebow played greatly or that play calling was the only reason why the defense stopped the Broncos. Matter of fact I specifically said Tebow did not play well. Try again.