Talent misevaluation: Why do players slip through the cracks?

[TomPatriot]

Interesting article by Lombardi on what he thinks are the 4 major reasons for poor talent evaluation. It explains a lot about what this organization tries to avoid, IMHO.

NFL.com news: Talent misevaluation: Why do players slip through the cracks?

 

[robbomango]

Nice read tnx Tommy,

Reminds me of the red flag BB mentioned as a result of the Tom Brady-Drew Hansen experiment conducted by Carr, "pedigree mistake" committed by 31 other teams with Mariucci being the spokesmen committing it ala the Brady 6.

On another note I remember Jerry Rice commenting on his low 40 time (4.72) at the combine. Said he felt faster on the field having to run from defenders, the combine didn't muster up the same competitive energy. Those 40 times end up being big ugly unwarranted stains to often it seems.

 

[TomPatriot]

It also brought to mind BB's indirect and partial explanation for cutting Meriwether, Butler and Sanders; other players projected to have greater upsides as the season progressed.

 

[TomPatriot]

Nice read tnx Tommy,

Reminds me of the red flag BB mentioned as a result of the Tom Brady-Drew Hansen experiment conducted by Carr, "pedigree mistake" committed by31 other teams with Mariucci being the spokesmen committing it ala the Brady 6.

On another note I remember Jerry rice commenting on his low 40 time at the combine(4.72) Said he felt faster on the field having to run from defenders, the combine didn't muster up the same competitive energy. Those 40 times end up being big ugly unwarranted stains to often it seems.

You hit on the classic example of agenda - Jerry Rice and his 40 time.

 

[robbomango]

I found this article interesting, the writer was evaluating talent for his fantasy pic and came to more positive conclusions about Brandon Lloyd that were overlooked because of a low 40 time at the combine (4.62). Why can't teams just send a scout to their house and clock em right there if this is so important? geezus

Gut Check - Brandon Lloyd: Matt Waldman - FF Today

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

The combine doesn't measure ones heart.

 

[Snake Eyes]

I found this article interesting, the writer as evaluating talent for his fantasy pic and came to more positive conclusions about Brandon Lloyd that were overlooked because of a low 40 time at the combine(4.62). Why can't teams just send a scout to their house and clock em right there if this is so important? geezus

Gut Check - Brandon Lloyd: Matt Waldman - FF Today

It's actually not important but it goes them something very simple and definable to wrap their heads around. The problem is that they don't take into account that a player is moving relative to another player, the ability to quickly change directions is vastly more important than just running in a straight line. While Rice didnt have a good 40 he has often been noted as one of the fastest receivers EVER when going in and out of his brakes, once again it's change of direction ability. Throw in processing ability and field navigation and you have a bunch of things that are more difficult to wrap your head around.

Then throw into the mix the strong paradigms which exist in the NFL, if you start radically departing from the norm you might be seriously risking your future job security.

 

[RayClay]

I thinbk he misses the boat, frankly. There are more players with physical talent who flop than players with less than ideal size speed combinations. even James Harrison, who is an *******, was overlooked more for a lack of ideal height weight than anything.

Players that look better on the field. Than their combines, are more ready to play now, are the hits, not the misses.

Maybe i misunderstood the article, but the raw talent free agents hits are few and far between compared to the "great player" but too small, too slow etc.

Of course the political situations, afraid to cut the high pick, afraid to develop the talented "football player" not workourt warrior, are the reasons i love BB. He'd cut his grandmother if she came to camp out of shape.

 

[robbomango]

It's actually not important but it goes them something very simple and definable to wrap their heads around. The problem is that they don't take into account that a player is moving relative to another player, the ability to quickly change directions is vastly more important than just running in a straight line. While Rice didnt have a good 40 he has often been noted as one of the fastest receivers EVER when going in and out of his brakes, once again it's change of direction ability. Throw in processing ability and field navigation and you have a bunch of things that are more difficult to wrap your head around.

Then throw into the mix the strong paradigms which exist in the NFL, if you start radically departing from the norm you might be seriously risking your future job security.

True, How useful is a 40 time outside of the Go route? It seems like the only time you'll see a 40 yard dash utilized in a game.

lol at BB cutting his grandmother

 

[TomPatriot]

True, How useful is a 40 time outside of the Go route? It seems like the only time you'll see a 40 yard dash utilized in a game.

lol at BB cutting his grandmother

The 40 was originally used because 40 yards was about the average punt and it was a useful way to gauge how fast a player could get downfield to cover.

 

[eom]

I think what the guy says is true, but I imagine it's a misconception that these players are static in their ability.
I'd think the james harrison of today is better and stronger than the james harrison who was getting cut, and maybe it was even getting cut that motivated him to get better.

you can measure how fast these guys run, but hopefully the work they put in at the weight room will actually produce some kind of result, the work they put in at the classroom, film room, etc, and you don't really know how these guys will develop, who has the work ethic, etc.
maybe even some guy doesn't have his diet and work ethic together when he enters the league, but maybe he gets some good mentoring and improves his game, or whatever.

I'd like to think the kids coming out of school have room for improvement.

 

[patsfan13]

I liked this quote from the article best:

What makes Lloyd a threat besides his underrated physical ability is what The Gut Check calls “High Football I.Q.” Certain players have it and it shows by whatever they do on the field. Hines Ward, Ed Reed, and Troy Brown are all players that not only make the big catch or tackle, but also excel on special teams. For that matter, they repeatedly turn up as players that make a key play in any situation on a football field. While result may not always change the course of the game on the scoreboard, it alters the momentum of their opponent and gives their team a lift.

As we know T Brown wasn't a combine and with the 7 rd draft would have been an UDFA. Mentioning anyone in the same sentence with Troy, H Ward and E Reed for football IQ gets my attention.

 

[robbomango]

I liked this quote from the article best:




As we know T Brown wasn't a combine and with the 7 rd draft would have been an UDFA. Mentioning anyone in the same sentence with Troy, H Ward and E Reed for football IQ gets my attention.

It was written by a fantasy football guy, not sure how much credibility they're awarded in the pure football world. He was looking at Lloyd as a future prospect #1 WR from an NFL perspective, I thought it was a pretty fair conclusion without getting cobbled up in fantasy results or jargin.

Given the fact that it was written in 2004 I gave it some weight. Lloyd has become a #1 that fits on the list he posted and I'm sure the high football IQ coupled with talent and skill is what attracted him to McD.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

There is a reason Bill doesn't put too much stock in the combine. He works off game film. And he talks to coaches about work ethic and coachability. He actually thinks the combine mentality that has taken over in the last decade or so is counterproductive. Players training for track and field type performances for 3 months or more at the expense of honing their football skills. He gets more out of the opportunity to eyeball potential draftees and interview those he hasn't already gathered all the information he needs on...

Watch how generic guru slotted draft boards get shuffled around over the next week or two because of bowl games and combine numbers and times and pro day performances. Then around draft day they all start to shift back to what the film showed... Game performances during their career. That's what should have told them all Brady was going to find a way to succeed...and against top flight competition, because that's all he did.

 

[Joker]

I've always thought the draft was more or less an exercise in employing this Runyanesque adage..

“The race may not always be to the swift nor the victory to the strong, but that's how you bet”

another facet that is almost impossible to quantify is how a performer on the collegiate level will perform when placed on the field with other players of superior skill on the pro level...every season we see tons of "can't miss!" and "special!" collegiate players fall by the wayside.

 

[robbomango]

During he Brady 6 there was a reference to his low 40 time and vertical being the worst for any QB in it's 31 year running. The paradox of that scenario is a QB with quick thinking abilities in game time situations, an extremely high football IQ and pure pocket passing efficiency. As TB said that's not what quarterbacking's all about.

Being able to scramble is a nice asset but it's often overused to the detriment of the team and QB imo. Steve Young and injury laden Michael Vick come to mind.

QB's with great vertical leaping ability has always been a big asset in the NFL

 

[TomPatriot]

I liked this quote from the article best:




As we know T Brown wasn't a combine and with the 7 rd draft would have been an UDFA. Mentioning anyone in the same sentence with Troy, H Ward and E Reed for football IQ gets my attention.

Brandon Lloyd's assets aren't size or speed but great hands and concentration.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

During he Brady 6 there was a reference to his low 40 time and vertical being the worst for any QB in it's 31 year running. The paradox of that scenario is a QB with quick thinking abilities in game time situations, an extremely high football IQ and pure pocket passing efficiency. As TB said that's not what quarterbacking's all about.

Being able to scramble is a nice asset but it's often overused to the detriment of the team and QB imo. Steve Young and injury laden Michael Vick come to mind.

QB's with great vertical leaping ability has always been a big asset in the NFL

Watched NFL films Top Tens all yesterday LOL... one category was NFL busts. Even with the best info, even when you disregard relatively unimportant stuff, like the sprinting speed of a QB, there are an awful lot of Jeff Georges and Ryan Leafs littering the path. (Also saw Free Agent busts... it was hilarious... the #1 was just "The Washington Redskins," as in anybody the Redskins pay, they overpay, and then they turn off the engine and coast.)

Have to disagree w/I believe RayClay, who said the "I think I can I think I can" types have less washouts than the talented athletes. It just looks that way, because the less athletically talented guys are supposed to fail.

Still, there's nobody -- nobody -- who's the lock he's supposed to be (year in and year out.) For every Matt Stafford (who seems to be getting there,) there's a Joey Harrington, who sometimes -- sometimes -- showed flashes of competency.

Peyton seems to be losing his "place" in Indy... and they look like they'll be relying on Luck.

Soon enough it'll be our turn. I'll be knocking on wood when the day comes, whether Mallet or Hoyer is supposed to end up being the guy, or whether we look to the draft to do better.

 

[TomPatriot]

There is a reason Bill doesn't put too much stock in the combine. He works off game film. And he talks to coaches about work ethic and coachability. He actually thinks the combine mentality that has taken over in the last decade or so is counterproductive. Players training for track and field type performances for 3 months or more at the expense of honing their football skills. He gets more out of the opportunity to eyeball potential draftees and interview those he hasn't already gathered all the information he needs on...

Watch how generic guru slotted draft boards get shuffled around over the next week or two because of bowl games and combine numbers and times and pro day performances. Then around draft day they all start to shift back to what the film showed... Game performances during their career. That's what should have told them all Brady was going to find a way to succeed...and against top flight competition, because that's all he did.

Arian Foster proves your point well.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Good Read - the part that I agree most with is the summary.

The best organizations treat each player the same and make each player earn his spot -- nothing is automatic. Mistakes are part of the sports business, but self-inflicted mistakes can be avoided if teams stay open-minded at all times.

This, is what I've always said sets the Patriots and Belichick in particular, apart.

It's the reason that even with all the haters pointing out how often Belichick has missed in the draft - and he's missed a lot, not to mention free agency - yet he still has gotten the team back to the Super Bowl on average every other year... and this in a day and age of supposed salary cap parity!

Belichick makes plenty of mistakes - in both the draft and free agency. But he'll cut veteran players and promote undrafted rookies to fill their spots making everyone else scratch their heads and question Belichick's sanity until they look up and see the team in the Super Bowl again.

A coach with a big ego preventing him from cutting highly paid or highly drafted players in favor of UFAs who earn the playing time can set a team back years.