Stats-deluded writer argues "there are no great defenses left in the playoffs" & NE doesn't count

[RobertWeathers]

Matt Ryan- Russel Wilson,Brees X2, Derek Carr,Philip Rivers,Aaaron Rodgers
Ben R - Flacco x2, Eli manning,prescott,AFCE -minus pats., Alex smith,Dalton x2
Rodgers- Eli,Prescott,Matt Ryan,Luck,Russel Wilson
Brady - Wilson, AFC-E , Simian, OSweiler x2 , Carson Palmer,jared goff, Kapernick,Flacco,Dalton

You can decide who is a top tier and not but clearly Pats havent faced as much as IMO as say matt ryan/falcons.

Its the argument that the Pats D is not as good as others b/c they have faced not as many top tier Qbs that I have a problem with.

I don't think anyone would say the Pats have a worse defense than any of the remaining four because they've faced fewer top QBs

 

[Nunchucks]

The Patriots are playing solid defense. No its ands or buts. And I was very critical of them earlier in the season. The dbs are covering well, the front 7 gets pressure and stop the run.

 

[scott99]

The NFL is a big name league. This is a very good defense, but a no name defense. So people in the media don't think the defense can dominate. We as fans know guys like Flowers and Brown are really good young Dlinemen, and how effective Branch is. We know Hightower is a beast and our secondary is excellent. But the rest of the NFL and the media underestimate our defense. Also, could be hatred/jealousy as well. IF another team had done what our defense did this year, they'd be raving about it.

Watching some of the shows today, they are totally disrespectful of the Pats as a whole. Because it's a name league, people are all on the Steelers bandwagon, how will the Pats stop Bell, Brown and Roethlisberger ? They are saying, Pittsburgh should key on running Bell as much as possible to keep Brady off of the field. Not ONE of the knuckleheads realize the Pats are #3 against the run. #1 in points against.

If I hated the Pats, I'd have watched the Pat's/Texan's game, and thought, man these Pats are beatable, they really didn't play that well. But then I'd realize, holy ****, they still won by 18, even not playing well. The defense gave up 3 points in the 2nd half.

Do the Steelers have a chance ? Sure they do, they've been playing great, have studs on offense and a few studs on defense. BUT, their secondary is suspect, Brady NEVER plays 2 subpar games in a row, I think there is a reason the Pats are favored. The toughest defense the Pats will play was Houston. And also, the Steelers don't respect the Pats, seems like nobody does. Their lack of respect could come back to haunt them.

 

[PatsGirl2011]

Funny how people wrote Denver off last year after they squeaked by in the Divisional round and then everyone predicted the Pats would blow them out in Denver...... Football is about matchups.The Texans have a good D and still gave up 34 points. I want people to pick Pittsburgh so we can laugh this time next week.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Many thanks for @shmessy for finding this great article. It's something of a counterpart to the theme of this thread:

Mike Preston: Forget the quarterbacks; Patriots' defense will give them the edge

Denver won the title with a great defense last season; the Patriots aren't in that class, but they're good. During the regular season, New England was ranked No. 1 in points allowed (15.6) and eighth in total yards, allowing 326.4 yards per game. The Patriots allowed only 237.9 passing yards per game and were tied for third in rushing defense, allowing 88.6 yards per contest.

Also, something to keep in mind is defensive efficiency - meaning how effectively does a defense hold an offense below their scoring average:

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

I honestly think that site has a good stat, but its flaw was exposed by this scheduling fluke. Rather than reassessing their metrics they're doubling down and hoping they're proven right. IMO their stat seems to get overly skewed by opponents, but it usually normalizes over the course of a season.

 

[RIpats88]

for all the talk that Big Ben is going to be the best QB we have faced this season, I think alot of media are ignoring his home/road differences. his road numbers this season are horrible. and his 0 td 1 interception game against the chiefs shouldnt allay those concerns. he even had 2 interceptions at home against the dolphins. so he is abit loose with the ball

SPLIT CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG LNG TD INT SACK RAT
HOME 160 226 1,915 70.8 8.47 72 20 5 7 116.7
AWAY 168 283 1,904 59.4 6.73 42 9 8 10 78.4

as crazy as it may sound. forcing ben to throw and trying to confuse him with different looks might be our defenses gameplan.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

After Rodgers and Brady, who is better than him?

Brees
Big Ben
Ryan

Do i continue?

 

[RobertWeathers]

for all the talk that Big Ben is going to be the best QB we have faced this season, I think alot of media are ignoring his home/road differences. his road numbers this season are horrible. and his 0 td 1 interception game against the chiefs shouldnt allay those concerns. he even had 2 interceptions at home against the dolphins. so he is abit loose with the ball

SPLIT CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG LNG TD INT SACK RAT
HOME 160 226 1,915 70.8 8.47 72 20 5 7 116.7
AWAY 168 283 1,904 59.4 6.73 42 9 8 10 78.4

as crazy as it may sound. forcing ben to throw and trying to confuse him with different looks might be our defenses gameplan.

Bell is the priority. Chung needs to shadow him all game.

Ben has thrown 9 picks in his last 6 games. He is not "Ben" right now. He doesn't have the accuracy in his game

 

[Patriot Missile]

Sorry, on paper it looked like it was going to be a tough schedule. Who would of thought Arizona was gonna go from super bowl contender to 8-8? Broncos? Same. Roethlisberger injured? Colts sucked. They had a first place schedule and no control over the injuries and how those teams dealt with adversity. Yet the Patriots went 3-1 through theirs without their best player.

Don't need no mediot or stat geek to tell us what this team is about. Have a feeling they will be up for the challenge.

 

[Username]

DVOA. Lol more clowns. I'd like to know who invented that one.

It was created to disprove a Ron Borges criticism of the Patriots...seriously...

 

[fightingirish595]

It was created to disprove a Ron Borges criticism of the Patriots...seriously...

It still sucks

 

[TinhWoodhead]

I suspect that BB secretly paid to have this article written

#disrepectgate?

 

[Ring 6]

Its the argument that the Pats D is not as good as others b/c they have faced not as many top tier Qbs that I have a problem with.

I don't think anyone would say the Pats have a worse defense than any of the remaining four because they've faced fewer top QBs

This is a stupid argument that leads to stupid conversations.
This argument amounts to if the 85 Bears played 2016 Cleveland and shut them out, they aren't as good as the 16 Bears if they played Atlanta and allowed 28.

To argue that a defense that played better is worse because of some impression of competition is silly. How much do you adjust for that? It assumes what would happen if teams played teams they didn't play, which is ridiculous. If the statistics that assess how a team would do against a fictitious average opponent (DVOA basically) were accurate then DVOA would be able to tell you with great accuracy what will happen in every game. It cannot and does not.

 

[RobertWeathers]

This is a stupid argument that leads to stupid conversations.
This argument amounts to if the 85 Bears played 2016 Cleveland and shut them out, they aren't as good as the 16 Bears if they played Atlanta and allowed 28.

To argue that a defense that played better is worse because of some impression of competition is silly. How much do you adjust for that? It assumes what would happen if teams played teams they didn't play, which is ridiculous. If the statistics that assess how a team would do against a fictitious average opponent (DVOA basically) were accurate then DVOA would be able to tell you with great accuracy what will happen in every game. It cannot and does not.

Right. If people want to look at common QBs and offenses and say so and so D is better than NE because they allowed less points or whatever then that is more reasonable.

 

[Ring 6]

Right. If people want to look at common QBs and offenses and say so and so D is better than NE because they allowed less points or whatever then that is more reasonable.

And you will never have enough common games to make it worthwhile.

The Patriots allowed more than 2 points per game less than anyone. That is a huge difference.
If they allowed a FG less over the course of a season vs a weaker schedule there is sense in that, but 2 ppg over a full schedule isn't so easily explained away.
And again, you can take all of the statistical formulas you want, but ultimately what those formulas are supposed to determine is how much the defense helped its team win. If you allow less points, but a statistical analysis says you coulda, shoulda, woulda allowed more, the statistical analysis is wrong, because you have a result.
DVOA is not IGL

 

[primetime]

Drew Brees
Ben Roethlisberger
Matt Ryan

And arguments can be made for the following: Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr.

Heavy recency bias at work here. No one would have made the argument that Matt Ryan or Derek Carr was a top-5 QB in the league last year, and Cam Newton would definitely have been in there after his MVP season. Stafford doesn't belong in the conversation, but Philip Rivers does. Wilson's certainly in the second tier of NFL QBs after Brady, Rodgers, and Brees alongside guys like Roethlisberger, Ryan, Luck, Carr, Newton, and Rivers.

Aside from Wilson, the Patriots did not face a top-10 QB all season, and Wilson beat them at home. The best quarterbacks they've faced besides Wilson have been Joe Flacco, Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, and Carson Palmer. That doesn't mean the defense isn't good, it just means it hasn't really been tested. They happen to play in a division with lower-tier quarterbacks and played the weakest NFC division.

 

[RobertWeathers]

And you will never have enough common games to make it worthwhile.

The Patriots allowed more than 2 points per game less than anyone. That is a huge difference.
If they allowed a FG less over the course of a season vs a weaker schedule there is sense in that, but 2 ppg over a full schedule isn't so easily explained away.
And again, you can take all of the statistical formulas you want, but ultimately what those formulas are supposed to determine is how much the defense helped its team win. If you allow less points, but a statistical analysis says you coulda, shoulda, woulda allowed more, the statistical analysis is wrong, because you have a result.
DVOA is not IGL

DVOA is an advanced eyeball test.

Its like saying the better the QB rating is for a QB, the better the QB

 

[PF_SU]

I think DVOA is an useful stat. Unlike ESPN's QBR for example it is well thought-out and reasoned. It has its weaknesses though. One is as @convertedpatsfan said, it apparently places too much emphasis on strength of schedule that it appears as if it's almost better playing a good team and losing bad than playing a bad team and winning good.

Another issue is that it's yardage based and hence struggling with bend-but-don't-break defenses. Let's not talk about the Pats, talk about KC's defense. They were 7th in scoring D (and 7th in points per drive). But 24th in yardage. They made up for that disparity by being the best team at taking away the ball. They rank 14th in DVOA.

Or combine both schedule and yardage and talk about San Diego's D. They rank 8th in DVOA. They had Oakland, Atlanta, New Orleans on their schedule. But in raw stats they are 29th in points allowed, 23rd in points per drive. But 13th in yards per drive. Yes, their D was put into bad field position by the offense turning the ball over so often. But a top 10 D?

I think finding a middle ground between SRS (which is points based but also incorporates strength of schedule) and DVOA is a good measure. In terms of defensive SRS the Patriots are #3 after Denver and the Giants and KC 5th. Arizona tied for 16th and San Diego tied for 28th.

 

[Ring 6]

DVOA is an advanced eyeball test.

Its like saying the better the QB rating is for a QB, the better the QB

Not really. Its a statistic calculation that throws a bunch of stuff against a wall. QB rating is heavily flawed, DVOA is just as flawed, if not more.