So You're Saying There's a Chance: The 2020 Patriots Playoff Push

[PATSYLICIOUS]

If we do get in (and I still think sweeping these next 3 is a very tall order) I don't think any team will want to play us in January.

Even at 9-7, I think pretty much any team would much rather play miami, Oakland, or indy than us. 9-7 would mean we’ve won 7 of 9 games, with most wins against playoff caliber teams

 

[amfootball]

Even at 9-7, I think pretty much any team would much rather play miami, Oakland, or indy than us. 9-7 would mean we’ve won 7 of 9 games

Not sure about that. I think teams would salivate at the chance at getting Newton.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Not sure about that. I think teams would salivate at the chance at getting Newton.

Not if our defense is playing lights out like the past 2 weeks. Newton would not have to do a whole lot especially if special teams continues making plays

 

[amfootball]

Not if our defense is playing lights out like the past 2 weeks. Newton would not have to do a whole lot especially if special teams continues making plays

I think playoff teams would love that scenario honestly. You don't win in the post-season without an offense. We won't face teams like the hapless Chargers in the post-season.

 

[sb1]

Not if our defense is playing lights out like the past 2 weeks. Newton would not have to do a whole lot especially if special teams continues making plays

Tonight will be a test for the defense, maybe their biggest of the year.

 

[amfootball]

Tonight will be a test for the defense, maybe their biggest of the year.

Tonight and also vs the Bills too.

 

[sb1]

I think playoff teams would love that scenario honestly. You don't win in the post-season without an offense. We won't face teams like the hapless Chargers in the post-season.

2000 Ravens
2011 Giants
2015 Broncos

2002 Bucs offense wasn't that great either

It can happen

 

[sb1]

Tonight and also vs the Bills too.

Yeah. The Bills had a rough time the first meeting against us I wouldn't count on that happening again.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I think playoff teams would love that scenario honestly. You don't win in the post-season without an offense. We won't face teams like the hapless Chargers in the post-season.

Winning multiple playoff games with this offense is totally unlikely yes. But if a top seed is going against bb in round 1 all bets are off.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Tonight will be a test for the defense, maybe their biggest of the year.

Yep, I think it tells alot. Another strong showing by the d and I think it makes winning out very realistic. Its a tall order though I certainly agree. and the offense has to do more or we’re just asking too much from the defense

 

[amfootball]

Winning multiple playoff games with this offense is totally unlikely yes. But if a top seed is going against bb in round 1 all bets are off.

I am secretly hoping for KC in round one. BB knows how to get to Mahomes and throw him off his game. That would be super sweet if we somehow took them out.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I am secretly hoping for KC in round one. BB knows how to get to Mahomes and throw him off his game. That would be super sweet if we somehow took them out.

Kc or pitt def. i think bth are good matchups for our d. Neither run the ball very well.

 

[Kontradiction]

Yeah for sure but Jackson wouldn't have played a snap until this year imo. Hard to say what that would mean for him. Jackson was at his best when he had those tight ends to throw to with the Ravens and our tight ends... well you know. I don't think the Pats intended to use Etling as a QB, they tried to convert him I think to WR and it didn't work.

And if they wouldn't have taken Michel what happens at RB? Michel really helped us win a title his rook year. Who knows if his replacement would have done the same thing.

They could have traded back up and grabbed Chubb in this hypothetical.

 

[jmt57]

Well, if he was hell bent on turning the offense into, basically, what the Ravens are, he could have drafted Jackson instead of Michel in 2018. He clearly saw the need for a QB (since we burned a 7th on Etling) and, being a economics major, had to see the writing on the wall with the cap. I’m not really high on Jackson but, with this OL, he’d be better than Cam right now.

I think the 2020 Patriot offense is an anomaly. I don't believe Belichick is going to keep this style of offense long term. Newton fell into his lap at the last minute and BB saw him as a cheap temporary upgrade over Stidham.

The last couple of years the Patriots kicked the can forward on the cap, trying to get a last couple of runs at the Super Bowl. The plan worked; selecting a RB rather than a long term solution with a first round draft pick helped in winning one last championship.

 

[Ring 6]

Well, if he was hell bent on turning the offense into, basically, what the Ravens are, he could have drafted Jackson instead of Michel in 2018. He clearly saw the need for a QB (since we burned a 7th on Etling) and, being a economics major, had to see the writing on the wall with the cap. I’m not really high on Jackson but, with this OL, he’d be better than Cam right now.

I don’t think he was ever he’ll bent on turning the offense into this. I think it showed up at the door with its hand out when Newton was available and signed for the minimum.
Taking the opportunity to try to win with a gimmick and good coaching is probably wiser than jamming a different crappy qb into the most critical position in the scheme.
So 3 years ago I doubt he had any intention of running the kind of offense and also figured Brady would still be able to play and miscalculated that he would desert.

 

[Kontradiction]

I think the 2020 Patriot offense is an anomaly. I don't believe Belichick is going to keep this style of offense long term. Newton fell into his lap at the last minute and BB saw him as a cheap temporary upgrade over Stidham.

The last couple of years the Patriots kicked the can forward on the cap, trying to get a last couple of runs at the Super Bowl. The plan worked; selecting a RB rather than a long term solution with a first round draft pick helped in winning one last championship.

Yeah, I’m not disagreeing with you for the most part. You just asked what he could have done and I provided an example. I truly have no clue if he wants to stick with this offense long term. That’s why I added the caveat.

 

[Ring 6]

They could have traded back up and grabbed Chubb in this hypothetical.

The Jackson pick would have made sense if he was willing to play other positions while he developed and Brady aged.
I wonder if Newton had been here before the draft if he would have seriously considered hurts.

 

[Kontradiction]

The Jackson pick would have made sense if he was willing to play other positions while he developed and Brady aged.
I wonder if Newton had been here before the draft if he would have seriously considered hurts.

I wanted them to. Even as a project. Hurts grew as a pocket passer under Riley and had prior experience in a similar system at ‘Bama.

 

[jmt57]

Yeah , its very hard to see not getting in at 10-6 , would probably require worse luck than 2008, that ravens wild card team was actually really good. In fact If we win tonight, miami loses to kc, lv loses to indy, balt loses to cle , I believe we control our destiny going into next week. That scenario is not very far fetched imo

When the Patriots were 2-5 they could afford at least one, probably two losses and still get into the playoffs.

Since then the Pats have gone 4-1, but their chances at the postseason have not improved much, if any. The problem is that those teams in front of them also keep winning. There is also the issue of having to leapfrog multiple teams. End result is that the scenario above of finishing 9-7 is not going to be good enough; the Pats will need to finish 8-1 after that 2-5 start.

At this point the Pats are going to need help from at least one, if not two teams folding during the final quarter of the season. The Patriots need (1) to win one more game than the Ravens do, (2) one more game than the Raiders do - plus (3) two more games than either the Dolphins, Colts or Titans do.

So for example we end up with a situation where the Pats need Miami to lose multiple games - but at the same time they need Miami to beat the Raiders. The Ravens need to lose, but they play only one game against a team with a winning record. It would help if the Colts lost twice - but not against the Raiders.

Last week New England got no help at all with the outcome of other games. Hopefully the tables are turned with your scenario (plus of course a win versus the Rams). That would result in needs #1 and #2 being fulfilled, and half of need #3 out of the way also.

5. (wildcard #1): Browns 10-3
6. (wildcard #2): Dolphins 8-5
7. (wildcard #3): Colts 8-5
--------------------------------
8. Patriots 7-6
9. Raiders 7-6
10. Ravens 7-6

The Patriots would indeed control their own destiny with this week's four-game scenario laid out above, as a win the following week at Miami would place the Patriots in the #7 seed and Indy at #6.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

One minor correction: 4-3 against winning teams (KC, Buf, Sea) but 4-2 against AFC winning teams. Your point still stands, though. This team has tremendous potential, but isn't consistent. Not too shocking with such a young roster.

Actually, they have been very consistent. This year is really about the four Covid games.

Cam having Covid really screwed up that 4 game stretch.

Absent that big hiccup, this team beats Denver and SF.......and just maybe Buffalo and especially KC.