So, @RapSheet tells us Julian Edelman could be worth $7M/year on the open market

[Brady6]

We can make an offer based on one year's performance and price his offer based on what we mistakenly paid someone else last year. Or not.

Teams pay rookies who have no prior seasons in the NFL and they pay UFAs based on performances in prior seasons on a different team that could have a very different system. Seems to me paying Edelman would be less risky than what we did with Amendola or Dobson last year.

There are two risks. One is that Edelman's injury free year is unusual for him. The second is that his performance is not likely to be repeated.

I highlighted injury situation with Edelman in my post to Sup, outside of 2012 when he broke his foot, the other injuries were minor, and he could have been sat because he was a rookie in 2009 or a back of the roster player in 2010 and 2011.

I am not sure, why his performance is unlikely that he repeat; as I pointed out, he was playing his best football in the final 8 games of the season when he put up 69 catch, 729 yards and 5 touchdowns. That to me would indicate he progressed as a player and could improve beyond that, remember Edelman was a QB in college this was his 5th season playing WR so his experience in the position is the equivalent of a 4-year college player after his rookie season in the NFL.

Are you thinking he will be receiving less targets? He was targeted 151 times in 2013, which if you look at the targets that go to the slot over the years is actually lower.

Welker targeted passes w/Patriots:
• 2007 – 145
• 2008 – 150
• 2009 – 162 (14 games)
• 2010 – 122 (15 games, coming of ACL/MCL injury)
• 2011 – 172
• 2012 – 174

Belichick has often signed players with injury histories. Such risks are part of the game. Belichick usually discounts their offers compared to those who do not have injury histories.

I would not consider a player who was placed on injured reserve 1 time in 5 seasons to be a player with an injury history.

Belichick does not such thing, he did not discount Fanene or Amendola who were his top signings of each of the past 2 seasons, and both had injury histories.

BTW, we seem to have our own private market on slot receivers. Even if you think that we set the market last year in offering TWO players around $6M a year, it does not follow that we should do this again and UP THE ANTE because last year's offers were so right compared with the rest of the league.

What are you talking about did you miss the contracts that Welker, Cruz and Harvin received this past offseason?

 

[varjao]

I still have high expectations for Amendola, I think he can replace The Receiver's production.

In spite of the games he missed and the fact that he played through injury the whole season, in a new team, new system, under a lot of pressure, he's had 633 yards, not that bad for a banged up guy. Ok only 2 TD's but he wasn't the #1 receiver. When you're not the primary target you help to move the chains until the red zone, but in the end zone you need the big guys, that's where the Patriots struggled not only him.

Some people thought he would miss a lot of games due to his past but those freaking injuries he went through on Rams was due to the overthrows of Sam Bustford. He's kind of stubborn and that was the reason for that concussion against the Saints too, but after that I think he realized or got coached that he needs to protect himself to stay on the field. Maybe without that damn groin injury we could have played the entire regular season.

It was only his first year and people are already talking about cut, come on, all we need is just a little patience.

 

[Brady6]

The Patriots, the team with the top winning percentage of the last decade, HOF coach, and HOF quarterback, need a WR3 more than he needs them?

Who is the #3 WR? Our first 2 WRs must be special if the WR who was 4th in the NFL in catches is 3rd on our depth chart…

 

[Kontradiction]

If 4th in the league in receptions is a WR3, I wonder who is a WR2.

You're just angry because you preached on and on about DA and he had a bad year, culminated by 0 catches in the AFC championship game.

Reference these posts where I preached on and on about DA. You may have a bit of trouble with that since what I actually preached on and on about was preferring Welker over Amendola in the offseason, which was before you even joined the forum. Now that we've established that you have absolutely no clue of what you're talking about, let's move on. Again, with your catches metric, you're putting Edelman ahead of Calvin Johnson. So please, make that case instead of throwing crap to the wall and seeing what sticks.

 

[SalemPats]

I still have high expectations for Amendola, I think he can replace The Receiver's production.

In spite of the games he missed and the fact that he played through injury the whole season, in a new team, new system, under a lot of pressure, he's had 633 yards, not that bad for a banged up guy. Ok only 2 TD's but he wasn't the #1 receiver. When you're not the primary target you help to move the chains until the red zone, but in the end zone you need the big guys, that's where the Patriots struggled not only him.

Some people thought he would miss a lot of games due to his past but those freaking injuries he went through on Rams was due to the overthrows of Sam Bustford. He's kind of stubborn and that was the reason for that concussion against the Saints too, but after that I think he realized or got coached that he needs to protect himself to stay on the field. Maybe without that damn groin injury we could have played the entire regular season.

It was only his first year and people are already talking about cut, come on, all we need is just a little patience.

I thought he DA was going to be better, but after watching him this year, he's route running, hands and toughness are not good enough to be a slot receiver. He's not physical enough to play on the outside. He's not good enough and not as good as Edelman. This is also evidenced by 0 catches in the AFCG.

Thankfully we have mini-tron who was 4th in receptions this year

 

[SalemPats]

Reference these posts where I preached on and on about DA. You may have a bit of trouble with that since what I actually preached on and on about was preferring Welker over Amendola in the offseason, which was before you even joined the forum. Now that we've established that you have absolutely no clue of what you're talking about, let's move on. Again, with your catches metric, you're putting Edelman ahead of Calvin Johnson. So please, make that case instead of throwing crap to the wall and seeing what sticks.

For some unknown reason, because of your Edelman hatred (i can't wait to laugh at you when he makes the probowl and helps us to the SB) you called him a #3WR. I simply pointed out that is doesn't make sense to call him a #3 WR when he finished 4th in the league in receptions. You love jumping to conclusions. :rocker:

 

[Ring 6]

Bill Polian was commenting on what will happen when Russell Wilson needs to get paid, and whether the Seahawks can become a dynasty in a capped era.
His comment was, once you have the franchise QB taking up his share, you can pay 9 or 10 guys and that's it.
If you consider the math:
Lets say 125mill cap.
Lets say QB takes 15mill
That leaves 110 mill, but when you consider average dead money, in season costs, and adjustments for bonuses etc, that probably is more like 100mill for 52 guys.

Using Polians comments, lets make that 9 and 43.
The 45 guys will take up at least 50 mill. That's an average of just over 1 mill for all but your 10 highest paid players.

So you have 50 mill for you 9 best guys that aren't your QB.
Would you pay Julian Edelman to be one of those 9?

 

[Brady6]

I still have high expectations for Amendola, I think he can replace The Receiver's production.

I do not usually hold out hopes for players to make the 7th season leap, I think he can give us 600-800 yards a season. That is what he has been his entire career and I see no reason to expect anything different.

In spite of the games he missed and the fact that he played through injury the whole season, in a new team, new system, under a lot of pressure, he's had 633 yards, not that bad for a banged up guy. Ok only 2 TD's but he wasn't the #1 receiver. When you're not the primary target you help to move the chains until the red zone, but in the end zone you need the big guys, that's where the Patriots struggled not only him.

He has 9 career touchdowns and he entered the NFL in 2008.

It was only his first year and people are already talking about cut, come on, all we need is just a little patience.

• Brandon Lloyd
• Chad Johnson
• Donte Stallworth

They all were 1 and done here and they had more prolific and effective careers entering than Amendola. If Amendola’s contract was not such a problem, I have no doubt he would be gone and Edelman would be resigned.

 

[Ring 6]

We have a choice.

We can make an offer based on one year's performance and price his offer based on what we mistakenly paid someone else last year. Or not.

There are two risks. One is that Edelman's injury free year is unusual for him. The second is that his performance is not likely to be repeated.

Belichick has often signed players with injury histories. Such risks are part of the game. Belichick usually discounts their offers compared to those who do not have injury histories.

BTW, we seem to have our own private market on slot receivers. Even if you think that we set the market last year in offering TWO players around $6M a year, it does not follow that we should do this again and UP THE ANTE because last year's offers were so right compared with the rest of the league.

The real question is whether Edelmans 2013 season is more a function of the player or the role.
The decision isn't to pay for 100 catches*. The decision is to pay for the difference between 100 and what the next guy up in the role would do. Edelman was the next guy up this year and his career to date and evident skillset would have said he was the JAG replacement for the GOAT slot receiver.
The real decision is how much his production was based on him, and how much was because of his role.


*This is not meant to measure his performance by a reception stat. "100 catches' is meant as a euphemism for his season.

 

[Kontradiction]

For some unknown reason, because of your Edelman hatred (i can't wait to laugh at you when he makes the probowl and helps us to the SB) you called him a #3WR. I simply pointed out that is doesn't make sense to call him a #3 WR when he finished 4th in the league in receptions. You love jumping to conclusions. :rocker:

I jumped to no conclusions. You just threw out a couple of red herrings at me and then dodged my questions. Edelman is a WR3. That's his ceiling in this league and on this team. He got the receptions he got because...

1. He was the only other WR on the opening day roster that had experience with Brady and in the offense.

2. The rookies were learning on the fly.

3. Injuries to Gronk and Amendola.

He was forced into the role he was in, but the passing offense clearly suffered even so with the exception of the games that Gronk played in. For some reason, you seem to think that pointing out the fact that he's a solid WR3 is a sign of disrespect when nobody is intending it that way. He is what he is... and that's not a viable WR1 or 2.

 

[SalemPats]

I jumped to no conclusions. You just threw out a couple of red herrings at me and then dodged my questions. Edelman is a WR3. That's his ceiling in this league and on this team. He got the receptions he got because...

1. He was the only other WR on the opening day roster that had experience with Brady and in the offense.

2. The rookies were learning on the fly.

3. Injuries to Gronk and Amendola.

He was forced into the role he was in, but the passing offense clearly suffered even so with the exception of the games that Gronk played in. For some reason, you seem to think that pointing out the fact that he's a solid WR3 is a sign of disrespect when nobody is intending it that way. He is what he is... and that's not a viable WR1 or 2.

A healthy Gronk and min-tron in the lineup and our offense looked really good. Brady6 brought up a great point, Ochostinko, Lloyd, Stallworth, it's tough to replace guys.

 

[SalemPats]

We have a choice.

We can make an offer based on one year's performance and price his offer based on what we mistakenly paid someone else last year. Or not.

There are two risks. One is that Edelman's injury free year is unusual for him. The second is that his performance is not likely to be repeated.

Belichick has often signed players with injury histories. Such risks are part of the game. Belichick usually discounts their offers compared to those who do not have injury histories.

BTW, we seem to have our own private market on slot receivers. Even if you think that we set the market last year in offering TWO players around $6M a year, it does not follow that we should do this again and UP THE ANTE because last year's offers were so right compared with the rest of the league.

You're pretty funny. You just think we can plug and play.
Moss: we finally have our outside receiver, we lose him and we're 6-7 years running still looking to replace him
Slot: Brown was nice, Welker was amazing. DA comes, not good enough, mini-tron steps up
TE: Gronk/AHern awesome, their out this year and we have no one to replace.

Brady is awesome, but it's not just plug and play. When you have a guy who performs lets keep him. Especially one who was 4th in receptions. Haters always hate.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I feel comfortable comparing Welker at age 31 when we tagged him and at 32 when the Broncos signed him for $6m.

The NFL is a performance-based industry, tenure and historical performance is secondary.



I never said Edelman was worth what we paid Welker in 2012, I look at it as of today, 2/6/14 is Edelman worth:
• $1,300,000 more annually than Danny Amendola was worth when he signed last March
• $2,500,000 less annually than we paid a 31 year old Wes Welker in 2012

Edelman’s injury history is slightly exaggerated, Edelman has been on injured reserve one time in his career, and that was last season with a broken foot.

• 2009 – 11 games
• 2010 – 15 games
• 2011 – 13 games
• 2012 – 9 games
• 2013 – 16 games

He missed a total of 16 regular season games in 5 seasons, 7 of them occurred in 2012, and 5 occurred in his rookie season which was not all injury related. Keep in mind Edelman was a backend roster player for his first 4 seasons so he was likely sat with an injury a lot quicker than if he was an essential player.



Welker was worth $6,000,000 to the Broncos in my opinion, he had a productive interrupted by the concussions, but if you look at the 10 games before he suffered his first concussion against the Chiefs he had – 61 catch on 87 targets for 681 yards, and 9 touchdowns. Over a full season, that is 97 catches, 1090 yards, and 15 touchdowns.

Cruz at the time he signed his extension was a player who had compiled 168 catches, 2628 yards, and 19 touchdowns in his previous 2 season along with scoring a touchdown in the 2011 SB that helped the Giants win a championship, I am not sure what led to his less impressive 2013 but the player that signed the extension probably was worth what they paid.

The market is set for slot WRs and that is just the way it is, Edelman’s agent is going to command a payday in the same neighborhood as Amendola, Welker and Cruz received last season.



I don’t really want to make this about Amendola, he is relevant only in the contract comparison discussion.

The fact that you're using the franchise tag number for Welker in 2012, when it's clear that not a single team in the NFL would have paid him that amount on the open market, kinda makes your entire point moot at best and disingenuous at worst.

 

[Ring 6]

A healthy Gronk and min-tron in the lineup and our offense looked really good. Brady6 brought up a great point, Ochostinko, Lloyd, Stallworth, it's tough to replace guys.

When Gronk played Edelman averaged 5/52
When Gronk didn't play Edelman averaged 7.7/77

In other words Edelman produced 50% more when Gronk wasn't on the field.

 

[patsfan-1982]

Bill Polian was commenting on what will happen when Russell Wilson needs to get paid, and whether the Seahawks can become a dynasty in a capped era.
His comment was, once you have the franchise QB taking up his share, you can pay 9 or 10 guys and that's it.
If you consider the math:
Lets say 125mill cap.
Lets say QB takes 15mill
That leaves 110 mill, but when you consider average dead money, in season costs, and adjustments for bonuses etc, that probably is more like 100mill for 52 guys.

Using Polians comments, lets make that 9 and 43.
The 45 guys will take up at least 50 mill. That's an average of just over 1 mill for all but your 10 highest paid players.

So you have 50 mill for you 9 best guys that aren't your QB.
Would you pay Julian Edelman to be one of those 9?

I think this is the way it needs to be looked at. its not about how many rec or yards he had or is he the best WR on the roster but is he one of does top 10 game changers, cause its not about Edelman vs DA it's Edelman vs Aqib Talib. does Edelman mean more to this team then Talib the last two AFCCG's say no,

so if the pats are only signing one it should be Talib they are both the same age they both have a past filled with injuries but only one is a game changer

 

[FourierSeries]

I can't understand those who want Decker on this team. The last thing this team needs is a soft/finesse receiver who disappears in big games.

 

[Brady6]

The fact that you're using the franchise tag number for Welker in 2012, when it's clear that not a single team in the NFL would have paid him that amount on the open market, kinda makes your entire point moot at best and disingenuous at worst.

How do you know that? So what you’re saying is that Belichick is an idiot and paid Welker way more than 31 other GMs would have?

 

[Huckleberry1]

Someone may pay him 7 million a year but it won't be the Patriots. I would be shocked if they went past 4. If they can get him at 4-16 8 guaranteed they might do it. I don't believe they are going to go much past that. As Rappaport said Houston is a likely landing spot, they have the wideouts but no slot guy to go with them. If he gets offers like that he should jump at them because he won't see money like that ever again.

 

[Huckleberry1]

You're pretty funny. You just think we can plug and play.
Moss: we finally have our outside receiver, we lose him and we're 6-7 years running still looking to replace him.

Remind us again how Moss fared when they got rid of him? Belichick saw the end coming for Moss and got a better pick in return for him than he used to get him, that's as good as it gets.


I think everyone wants Edelman back the only question is the price tag and while most fans would go high for him the Patriots most likely won't.

 

[patsderoer]

So you have 50 mill for you 9 best guys that aren't your QB.
Would you pay Julian Edelman to be one of those 9?

Without any doubt.
Brady wants him back.
Edelman is the only reliable receiver he has.