DRAFT Sidy Sow - Round 4 - 117th overall

[mgteich]

Because our Interior OL is seemingly in good shape with Onwenu/Andrews/Strange but our OTs may as well been turnstiles last year. They made a few FA signings that don’t appear to be big upgrades. Even Brown is a question mark after last year….

So, strange that they prioritized and drafted 3 players at an area of relative strength, and no players at an area that seemingly needed an upgrade.

I don’t disagree that we need to replace Andrews/Murray/Ferentz. But, like many, thought Tackle was a top “need”.

So, you are satisfied with Ferentz and Murray?

 

[mgteich]

MY BOTTOM LINE
1) We needed backups and future starters at IOL.
2) Ferentz, Hines, Russey and Murray weren't enough.
3) 5th, 6th and 7th rounder can be contributors, and even starters, but in the end, they are shots in the dark.
4) A 4th round draft choice is a major statement by Belichick on a player. He makes the 53 and probably plays a second year.
5) Sow and Andrews are hopefully immediate Game Day actives and could play this year if necessary.
6) Sow having experience at LT is a major plus. At very least he can be an emergency 4th OT, if necessary.
7) We have lots of later rounders competing for a backup spot on the 53 and on the Practice Squad. That is the normal case for 5th rounders and even more so for later rounders. We have Hines, Mafi, and Russey all looking for the deep backup spots over Ferentz and Murray.
8) The list of backups is even more important if Strange is the starter at LT. Presumably Sow would then be the starting LG.

 

[Kasmir]

Frodo was drafted WAAAY too damn early… As in, by THREE rounds too early.

Well the pick didn't work out for the Pats but Froholdt retrospectively was worth a 4th as he became a starter.

NFL Draft Scout rated Froholdt a 5.80, i.e. "Average backup or special-teamer" when he should have been 6.20-6.29 i.e. "Will eventually be average starter". That's a 3 grade error in their system's version of the pre-2019-draft consensus.

There are a lot worse draft picks for you to scorn. Froholdt was about right as a 4th rounder, if anything it was a little low.

Hjalte Froholdt Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

All Combine and Draft-Related Analysis, News, Video, and Biographical Information for Hjalte Froholdt

www.nfl.com

 

[captain stone]

So, you are satisfied with Ferentz and Murray?

What IN THE WORLD does needing to ****-can Thanksdad & the Comedian ASAP have to do with Not needing to find an NFL-caliber Left Tackle?!?

 

[State]

The only gd LT on the team us Anderson with his half dozen starts or so with the Broncos.

The current situation is untenable. Wynn is coming back. Has to be.

People who think AK will sprinkle pixie dust over Trent Brown’s depleting athleticism to excel at LT are in for a rude awakening. He’s no longer the dancing bear with 36” arms.

He is a plodder now.

 

[DaBruinz]

I never said the starter was history. I said the way they drafted says their plan is to replace him. I've also said anything can happen over a year.

Here is one decade of facts illustrating what drafting a guard in the 3rd/4th round has meant to the team. Guards/centers are generally drafted later than most other positions, so it is amateur analysis to compare a 4th round guard with a 4th round OT.

A list of every guard/center drafted by the Patriots in the last ten years from 4th round or better.

Byron Stork 4th - instant starter
Tre jackson 4th - instant starter
Shaq Mason 4th - instant starter
Joe Thuney 3rd - instant starter
Froholdt (4th) - bust
Strange - 1st - instant starter

What evidence is there that one of the first few guards/centers taken will only be competing against the likes of Ferrentz/Murray/Russey for a backup job, especially when they sat Onwenu for a previously career backup just one season removed? It's laughable.

What's completely laughable about your schtick is that I can cite numerous cases of the Patriots drafting players to start as back-ups with the hope of them taking over at some point or in the event that a player decided to move on. Matt Light. Sebastian Vollmer. Marcus Cannon. Nate Solder. Bryan Stork. Tre Jackson. Shaq Mason. Froholdt. If you actually knew anything about the team, you'd know that they have regularly drafted players to be back-ups to start with. Not in an effort to push players out to replace them as you're implying.

Neither Jackson nor Mason were "instant Starters". Implying as much shows a complete lack of knowledge of what was going on with the O-line in 2015. Jackson was pulled during his first start.. for Mason. Mason didn't start until week 2. Josh Kline actually started more games at Guard that year than either Jackson or Mason.

Bryan Stork was not an "instant starter" either. He didn't get his first start until game 3 of the 2014 season.

There are a couple of problems with you thinking you know what you're talking about when it comes to Onwenu moving to the bench when Trent Brown was finally healthy in 2021. The first is that it shows you have no concept when it comes to O-Iine Chemistry. The second is that you completely ignore that players can get better from their 2nd season to their 3rd.

You should probably go and watch one of the several videos on how the team grades its own players and how it grades draft picks. I can guarantee you that none of the guys drafted were done so to replace Onwenu this year. But you keep deluding yourself with half-truths.

If the Pats wanted to "replace" Onwenu, they'd have shipped him out at the draft when his value was high.

 

[DaBruinz]

Absolutely everyone is being groomed for and/or is looking for a starter's job. Except Ferentz but that's another conversation...

And I am not debating that. I agree. The difference here is that they brought Andrews, Sow and Mafi in to replace Murray, Ferentz, and Russey as the back-ups while they develop into better players. This idea that they drafted them because they have zero intention or re-signing Onwenu is the what I take issue with. It's "FAMILY" spewing without any actual proof. If you followed HIS line of thinking, they could just keep the 34 year old Ferentz and the 33 year old Andrews until they absolutely needed starting replacements.

 

[Wozzy]

The only gd LT on the team us Anderson with his half dozen starts or so with the Broncos.

The current situation is untenable. Wynn is coming back. Has to be.

People who think AK will sprinkle pixie dust over Trent Brown’s depleting athleticism to excel at LT are in for a rude awakening. He’s no longer the dancing bear with 36” arms.

He is a plodder now.

They signed Anderson, Reiff, McDermott and drafted Sow... Wynn isn't coming back unless he signs for nothing.

Trent Brown is going to be 30 years old this season, that's not that old. He was never a dancing bear, he's a mountain defenders needs to circumnavigate.

 

[Family]

What's completely laughable about your schtick is that I can cite numerous cases of the Patriots drafting players to start as back-ups with the hope of them taking over at some point or in the event that a player decided to move on. Matt Light. Sebastian Vollmer. Marcus Cannon. Nate Solder. Bryan Stork. Tre Jackson. Shaq Mason. Froholdt. If you actually knew anything about the team, you'd know that they have regularly drafted players to be back-ups to start with. Not in an effort to push players out to replace them as you're implying.

Your post is confusing. Are you saying the names you mentioned were not intended to be starters?

There are multiple second round picks on your list. Solder was 17th OA.

Neither Jackson nor Mason were "instant Starters". Implying as much shows a complete lack of knowledge of what was going on with the O-line in 2015. Jackson was pulled during his first start.. for Mason. Mason didn't start until week 2. Josh Kline actually started more games at Guard that year than either Jackson or Mason.

Bryan Stork was not an "instant starter" either. He didn't get his first start until game 3 of the 2014 season.

Maybe it's the definition of what is an instant starter is where the confusion lies. Tre Jackson and Mason started ten games as rookies, and Stork 11. Neither Murray or Russey, who you mention as their competetion, have ever started a game.

This is my last post, so you can have the last say if you wish. That the team intends for all these high draft choices to be backups is ridiculous. Mgteich said it correctly. 4th round or better are expected to compete.

 

[Kasmir]

Mgteich said it correctly. 4th round or better are expected to compete.

Overall league-wide success rate of 4th round picks is only 8%, but much higher at 29% for OL. Lots of starting quality IOL fall to the 4th round, makes sense to preferentially pick them there.

From Pro Football Reference.

 

[OldEngland]

Firstly I completely agree with the “where is our Pro-bowl standard left tackle for this year and especially for 2024 and beyond argument”, and think there is an element of playing with fire not getting the future sorted in this FA/draft.

However, I don’t get the hand-wringing about Bill drafting OL this year. There are parts of the Pats drafting that can be criticised, but the OL is absolutely not part of it. Their record of drafting OL and them sticking in the league, regardless of round, is exemplary.

This is every single OL drafted between 2021 and 2009 (where I got bored but the trend continues further back). Capital expended in those 13 years is 23 picks, x2 1sts, x1 2nd, x3 3rds, x6 4ths, x2 5ths, x7 6ths and x2 7ths. It's a rough categorisation, but there are five big time starters (Vollmer, Cannon, Solder, Thuney, Mason), Five good players with 40+ starts and counting (Onwenu, Karras, Fleming, Wynn, Larsen). A whole series of decent back-ups who stuck it in the league for years and started occasionally (Ohrnburger, Halapio, McDermott, Froholt, Herron, Cajuste) or just bounced around (Sherman, Welch). Several who got starts but injuries finished them early (Stork, Jackson), and some who just got injured (Garcia, Bussey). And that doesn’t include UDFA Andrews who belongs in the first group and Kline who belongs in the second.

Find me a Pats OL drafting failure regardless of round (well in first 6 rounds anyway) that have not had several big injuries. Even the ones that don’t make the Pats roster stick (and often start) with other teams.

So when it comes to Andrews, Sow, and Mafi, history suggests they have a great chance to stick and eventually start somewhere in the NFL if they don’t get injured, and at least one of them will be pretty good, and another decent. Does it fix the OT problem of the future, no, do the Pats know what they are doing when it comes to drafting OL regardless of round and at all OL positions, history says yes.


Below is all 23 OL draft picks from 2021 to 2009 descending according to year.

William Sherman (6) No start yet. Currently with Broncos.

Michael Onwenu (6) 41 games started. Approaching second contract

Justin Herron (6) Started 10 games. Currently with Raiders

Dustin Woodard (7) Retired in first training camp.

Yodny Cajuste (3) 5 games started. Still on Pats roster. IR x3 seasons

Froholt (4) Started 6 games. Currently has 2 year contact with Cardinals

Wynn (1) Started 40 games. Currently unsigned. Injuries leading to IR every season.

Garcia (3) injuries, never made camp.

McDermott (6) Started 12 games. Bounced around but still in league after 6 years

Thuney (3) Started 112 games and counting. 2nd team All Pro x2. Pro bowl. Huge second contract.

Karras (6) Started 65 games and counting. Decent second contract

Tre Jackson (4) Started 9 games. Injuries bounced around.

Mason (4) started 115 games and counting. Big second contract

Stork (4) Started 17 games. Retired with concussions

Fleming (4) started 61 games. 9 years in the league

Halapio (6). Started 23 games. Bounced around the league for 5 years. Injuries.

Solder (1) Started 143 games. All 2010s team Pats. Highest paid OT in the league at 2nd contract.

Cannon (5) 11 years in NFL. Started 77 games. Second team all-pro (2016)

Larsen (6) 10 years in NFL. Started 88 games bouncing around the league

Welch (7) 3 years in NFL. Bounced around the league.

Vollmer (2) 8 years in NFL. Started 80 games. Pats All 2010s team.

Ohrnberger (4) 5 years in NFL. 5 starts.

Bussey (5) Injured in first season.

 

[State]

I like the idea of Sow at LT. Isn’t Sow a name for some animal? Female cow or something?

 

[State]

Trent Brown is going to be 30 years old this season, that's not that old. He was never a dancing bear, he's a mountain defenders needs to circumnavigate.

A great big fat mountain. Fat as butter.

Fat and lazy is no way for our LT to go through life.

Thank goodness they demand that weight clause in his contract. Won’t be able to afford his third Bentley if he doesn’t make weight.

 

[captain stone]

Firstly I completely agree with the “where is our Pro-bowl standard left tackle for this year and especially for 2024 and beyond argument”, and think there is an element of playing with fire not getting the future sorted in this FA/draft.

However, I don’t get the hand-wringing about Bill drafting OL this year. There are parts of the Pats drafting that can be criticised, but the OL is absolutely not part of it. Their record of drafting OL and them sticking in the league, regardless of round, is exemplary.

This is every single OL drafted between 2021 and 2009 (where I got bored but the trend continues further back). Capital expended in those 13 years is 23 picks, x2 1sts, x1 2nd, x3 3rds, x6 4ths, x2 5ths, x7 6ths and x2 7ths. It's a rough categorisation, but there are five big time starters (Vollmer, Cannon, Solder, Thuney, Mason), Five good players with 40+ starts and counting (Onwenu, Karras, Fleming, Wynn, Larsen). A whole series of decent back-ups who stuck it in the league for years and started occasionally (Ohrnburger, Halapio, McDermott, Froholt, Herron, Cajuste) or just bounced around (Sherman, Welch). Several who got starts but injuries finished them early (Stork, Jackson), and some who just got injured (Garcia, Bussey). And that doesn’t include UDFA Andrews who belongs in the first group and Kline who belongs in the second.

Find me a Pats OL drafting failure regardless of round (well in first 6 rounds anyway) that have not had several big injuries. Even the ones that don’t make the Pats roster stick (and often start) with other teams.

So when it comes to Andrews, Sow, and Mafi, history suggests they have a great chance to stick and eventually start somewhere in the NFL if they don’t get injured, and at least one of them will be pretty good, and another decent. Does it fix the OT problem of the future, no, do the Pats know what they are doing when it comes to drafting OL regardless of round and at all OL positions, history says yes.


Below is all 23 OL draft picks from 2021 to 2009 descending according to year.

William Sherman (6) No start yet. Currently with Broncos.

Michael Onwenu (6) 41 games started. Approaching second contract

Justin Herron (6) Started 10 games. Currently with Raiders

Dustin Woodard (7) Retired in first training camp.

Yodny Cajuste (3) 5 games started. Still on Pats roster. IR x3 seasons

Froholt (4) Started 6 games. Currently has 2 year contact with Cardinals

Wynn (1) Started 40 games. Currently unsigned. Injuries leading to IR every season.

Garcia (3) injuries, never made camp.

McDermott (6) Started 12 games. Bounced around but still in league after 6 years

Thuney (3) Started 112 games and counting. 2nd team All Pro x2. Pro bowl. Huge second contract.

Karras (6) Started 65 games and counting. Decent second contract

Tre Jackson (4) Started 9 games. Injuries bounced around.

Mason (4) started 115 games and counting. Big second contract

Stork (4) Started 17 games. Retired with concussions

Fleming (4) started 61 games. 9 years in the league

Halapio (6). Started 23 games. Bounced around the league for 5 years. Injuries.

Solder (1) Started 143 games. All 2010s team Pats. Highest paid OT in the league at 2nd contract.

Cannon (5) 11 years in NFL. Started 77 games. Second team all-pro (2016)

Larsen (6) 10 years in NFL. Started 88 games bouncing around the league

Welch (7) 3 years in NFL. Bounced around the league.

Vollmer (2) 8 years in NFL. Started 80 games. Pats All 2010s team.

Ohrnberger (4) 5 years in NFL. 5 starts.

Bussey (5) Injured in first season.

Thanks for the research. I know that takes time & effort, and it's appreciated.

But...

There were other Centers, never mind Offensive Tackles, who were better prospects than Jake The hopefully not Newest Fake Andrews at the time of his selection;

And Fat Tony was NOT what we needed, either from a positional, needs-based or talent perspective. Again, better Guards, better OLmen and better players in general were still available at 144.

 

[Wozzy]

A great big fat mountain. Fat as butter.

Fat and lazy is no way for our LT to go through life.

Thank goodness they demand that weight clause in his contract. Won’t be able to afford his third Bentley if he doesn’t make weight.

Fat… based on what? The Patriots wrote weight incentives into his contract, he only gets paid if he makes weight.

Seems you’re just desperately reaching at this point to find something to dislike.

 

[50-yard-line]

I never said the starter was history. I said the way they drafted says their plan is to replace him. I've also said anything can happen over a year.

Here is one decade of facts illustrating what drafting a guard in the 3rd/4th round has meant to the team. Guards/centers are generally drafted later than most other positions, so it is amateur analysis to compare a 4th round guard with a 4th round OT.

A list of every guard/center drafted by the Patriots in the last ten years from 4th round or better.

Byron Stork 4th - instant starter
Tre jackson 4th - instant starter
Shaq Mason 4th - instant starter
Joe Thuney 3rd - instant starter
Froholdt (4th) - bust
Strange - 1st - instant starter

What evidence is there that one of the first few guards/centers taken will only be competing against the likes of Ferrentz/Murray/Russey for a backup job, especially when they sat Onwenu for a previously career backup just one season removed? It's laughable.

Good post. One quibble: Froholdt wasn't a bust. They tried to sneak him to the PS and he got poached, iirc. Apparently, he's moved to center in AZ.
He was very raw when drafted. On the Browns, a series of injuries forced him to Center, where he had never played before. Then in AZ, they decided he'd be a center full time. And now he is. I think he's still growing, and with his strength, keep an eye on him.


EDIT: Oops, was reading through adn just reacted (Froholdt is a bit of a binkie). I see that Kasmir and others took up the mantle on him. I"m still rooting for the guy.

 

[upstater1]

Thanks for the research. I know that takes time & effort, and it's appreciated.

But...

There were other Centers, never mind Offensive Tackles, who were better prospects than Jake The hopefully not Newest Fake Andrews at the time of his selection;

And Fat Tony was NOT what we needed, either from a positional, needs-based or talent perspective. Again, better Guards, better OLmen and better players in general were still available at 144.

If the Patriots thought they were better they would've taken them.

Tell me the names.

Because of the sheer numbers alone, you're bound to be right. If I take 1 guard over 10 other guards, it stands to reason that some of the other 10 will be better than the 1, by sheer probability alone.

That's why we can only compare names.

Which ONE Center will be better than Andrews?

Which ONE Guard will be better than Sow?

 

[mgteich]

Overall league-wide success rate of 4th round picks is only 8%, but much higher at 29% for OL. Lots of starting quality IOL fall to the 4th round, makes sense to preferentially pick them there.

From Pro Football Reference.

For the patriots, 100% of 4th rounders make the 53 or IR

29% of NFL 4th rounders are eventual STARTERS.

Obviously, many more are significant contributors as backups. Please not, that this does NOT, does NOT mean that a 4th rounder will be a major contributor as a rookie. However, we generally hope that most 4th round OL's will be active as rookies.

What stats tells us about the draft by round

The best times to draft certain positions based on the last 10 years.

www.arrowheadpride.com

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

If the Patriots thought they were better they would've taken them.

Tell me the names.

Because of the sheer numbers alone, you're bound to be right. If I take 1 guard over 10 other guards, it stands to reason that some of the other 10 will be better than the 1, by sheer probability alone.

That's why we can only compare names.

Which ONE Center will be better than Andrews?

Which ONE Guard will be better than Sow?

Agreed. It's real easy to name multiple players we should have drafted, and that list always dwindles down to 1 or 2 guys years later and it's always magically the most successful.

It's just like taking Harry in 2019. (I'm obviously not denying it was a bad pick) How often do we see "I can't believe we took him over Samuel, Brown and Metcalf?" But how often do people regret not taking Mecole Hardman, J.J. Arega-Whiteside, Parris Campbell or Andy Isabella? They were all taken between Brown and Metcalf. Why are their names omitted?

 

[upstater1]

Agreed. It's real easy to name multiple players we should have drafted, and that list always dwindles down to 1 or 2 guys years later and it's always magically the most successful.

It's just like taking Harry in 2019. (I'm obviously not denying it was a bad pick) How often do we see "I can't believe we took him over Samuel, Brown and Metcalf?" But how often do people regret not taking Mecole Hardman, J.J. Arega-Whiteside, Parris Campbell or Andy Isabella? They were all taken between Brown and Metcalf. Why are their names omitted?

Exactly