Scenarios where Pats clinch a playoff spot this weekend

[sb1]

According to ChatGPT the Pats clinch a playoff spot Sunday if:

Pats beat Giants and
Bengals beat Ravens and
Bills beat Steelers and
49ers beat Browns

Or

Pats beat Giants and
Colts beat Texans and
Titans beat Jaguars

Or

Pats beat Giants and
Raiders beat Chargers and
At least one of Texans, Ravens, Steelers lose

----------
Scenario 1 seems weird, not sure what the Browns have to do with it and both the Steelers (who have H2H over the Pats) and Ravens (who will get H2H over us if they beat the Pats) could in theory be at 11-6, which is the Pats floor if they beat the Giants. But that's our rooting interest this weekend.

Edit:
Ok I figured it out. Both teams couldn't finish 11-6 cause the Steelers and Ravens still have to play each other twice. If one of them wins out then they win the division and that's not relevant to the Pats clinching at least a WC spot this weekend. The Browns losing eliminates them from the division and eliminates a scenario with Bal and Pit being 2 wild card teams and the Pats having H2H over neither.

So there it is.

 

[PatsFan2]

According to ChatGPT the Pats clinch a playoff spot Sunday if:

Pats beat Giants and
Bengals beat Ravens and
Bills beat Steelers and
Browns beat 49ers

Or

Pats beat Giants and
Colts beat Texans and
Titans beat Jaguars

Or

Pats beat Giants and
Raiders beat Chargers and
At least one of Texans, Ravens, Steelers lose

----------
Scenario 1 seems weird, not sure what the Browns have to do with it and both the Steelers (who have H2H over the Pats) and Ravens (who can get H2H if they beat the Pats) would be at 11-6, which is the Pats floor if they beat the Giants. But that's our rooting interest this weekend.

I'll take scenario two please.

 

[sb1]

I'll take scenario two please.

Could be the most likely one! Wish the Raiders didn't absolutely suck or scenario 3 would be in play too.

 

[PatsFan2]

Could be the most likely one! Wish the Raiders didn't absolutely suck or scenario 3 would be in play too.

Then again Hmmmmm: I'm a firm believer that Justin Herbert is a Choker and Mahomes will keep the heat on them to win. IF I was a betting man I would Never bet on the Chargers or Jaguars to win.

 

[jmt57]

I'm not sure if I trust AI yet (I've come across some doozies).

Perhaps I'm missing something, but I'm not following the logic with scenario #2.
Pats win: worse they can finish is 11-6
Texans lose: best they can finish is 11-6
But meanwhile Broncos, Colts, Chargers, Jaguars, Chiefs can all finish 11-6 or better (5 teams)
Ravens/Steelers split, Balt beats NE, Balt&Pitt both finish 11-6, and both win H2H vs Pats.

Edit: sb1's scenario is correct, due to NFL 3-way wild card tiebreaker rules.
In this case there are two teams in the same division.
First step is to eliminate one of those two teams in the same division.
In this case one of either Pitt or Balt gets eliminated.
H2H is step #2 rather than step #1, which doesn't make much sense to me - but that's the rule.
That would mean the Patriots are at minimum the #7 seed.

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Edit #2: I'm not sure how Houston being at 11-6 with other 11-6 teams means the Texans can't possibly win a tiebreaker, but I will take the semiconductor's word on it.

 

[sb1]

I'm not sure if I trust AI yet (I've come across some doozies).

Perhaps I'm missing something, but I'm not following the logic with scenario #2.
Pats win: worse they can finish is 11-6
Texans lose: best they can finish is 11-6
But meanwhile Broncos, Colts, Chargers, Jaguars, Chiefs can all finish 11-6 or better (5 teams)
Ravens/Steelers split, Balt beats NE, Balt&Pitt both finish 11-6, and both win H2H vs Pats.

Edit: sb1's scenario is correct, due to NFL 3-way wild card tiebreaker rules.
In this case there are two teams in the same division.
First step is to eliminate one of those two teams in the same division.
In this case one of either Pitt or Balt gets eliminated.
H2H is step #2 rather than step #1, which doesn't make much sense to me - but that's the rule.
That would mean the Patriots are at minimum the #7 seed.

NFL.com | Official Site of the National Football League

The official source for NFL news, video highlights, fantasy football, game-day coverage, schedules, stats, scores and more.

www.nfl.com

Edit #2: I'm not sure how Houston being at 11-6 with other 11-6 teams means the Texans can't possibly win a tiebreaker, but I will take the semiconductor's word on it.

So true re AI.

I thought I saw it mention an AFC East clinch scenario this weekend but that can't happen because best case scenario the Pats are only 3 losses up on Buffalo with 4 to play. So I didn't bother mentioning it. Maybe I read it wrong.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Not to be overconfident but I think at 10-2 we're gonna make the playoffs, unless we have a total collapse in which case I wouldn't want to watch us in a playoff game anyway.

The question, as in the old days, is what seed, and how many of these playoff games can we get in Foxboro? That top seed is SO valuable cause it means a 1st round playoff win without having to suit up, plus the next 2 played at home.

 

[sb1]

Edit #2: I'm not sure how Houston being at 11-6 with other 11-6 teams means the Texans can't possibly win a tiebreaker, but I will take the semiconductor's word on it.

If it's valid I'd think it has to involve tiebreakers with more than 2 teams cause Houston would have a better AFC and common opponents record over the Pats at their floor.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

According to playoffstatus.com, no one in the AFC can clinch anything this week.

 

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

From what I'm seeing the Pats can't clinch until at least Week 15. Our "Magic number" if you will to clinch the #7 seed is 2, but it can't go down to 0 this week because several rivals for it play each other and will thus either not lose or will tie.

Really to clinch a playoff spot the easiest math is beat the Giants and the Bills, which would give us the East anyway so no need for the #7 seed.

 

[signbabybrady]

 

[jmt57]

According to playoffstatus.com, no one in the AFC can clinch anything this week.

I saw that too, and they have been a very reliable source for this type of info for a long time.

On the other hand, the scenario laid out by sb1 in the original post does sort of make sense, so . . . ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[sb1]

If the Pats beat the Giants their floor is 6 losses.

These are the AFC teams that can finish with less than 6 losses as of right now.

If there's a clinching scenario for NE this weekend that means 3 teams would drop off this list.



So if the Pats clinch this weekend then it starts with 3 of these teams (Texans, Steelers, Ravens and Chiefs) with 6 losses. Mathematically if Pats are at their floor and these teams at their ceiling then Pats lose tiebreakers to Texans (better conf record), Chiefs (same), Steelers (H2H) and Ravens still have to play the Pats for H2H. Maybe that's why playoffstatus doesn't have a clinch scenario yet or maybe it's also considering ties and GPT isn't.

But these teams on the list also have to play each other like Pitt playing Bal twice, Texans playing Colts, Chargers and KC so it's not possible for all of them to win out. Hmmm...

 

[XLIX]

I’ll take scenario let’s keep winning and it doesn’t matter what other teams do (although I guess we do need help for someone to hand Denver a loss)

 

[TheRainMaker]

Let's get though Monday with a win playing better and next the real showdown awaits against the Bills for the division.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Denver will win their next 2, and hopefully we beat the Giants then the bye, so at that point we’ll both be 11-2 but the Broncos own the tiebreaker which I think is common opponents.

In the last 4 weeks if we can win 3, it’s possible Denver wins only 2, with L’s to GB and KC.

 

[Real fan 02]

According to ChatGPT the Pats clinch a playoff spot Sunday if:

Pats beat Giants and
Bengals beat Ravens and
Bills beat Steelers and
49ers beat Browns

Or

Pats beat Giants and
Colts beat Texans and
Titans beat Jaguars

Or

Pats beat Giants and
Raiders beat Chargers and
At least one of Texans, Ravens, Steelers lose

----------
Scenario 1 seems weird, not sure what the Browns have to do with it and both the Steelers (who have H2H over the Pats) and Ravens (who will get H2H over us if they beat the Pats) could in theory be at 11-6, which is the Pats floor if they beat the Giants. But that's our rooting interest this weekend.

Edit:
Ok I figured it out. Both teams couldn't finish 11-6 cause the Steelers and Ravens still have to play each other twice. If one of them wins out then they win the division and that's not relevant to the Pats clinching at least a WC spot this weekend. The Browns losing eliminates them from the division and eliminates a scenario with Bal and Pit being 2 wild card teams and the Pats having H2H over neither.

So there it is.

Thanks SB always posting good stuff.. it's absolutely moronic that with 10 wins and leading the AFC that we haven't clinched yet..

 

[Real fan 02]

Let's get though Monday with a win playing better and next the real showdown awaits against the Bills for the division.

Bills will be a tough out.. no matter what a state they are in.. we are banged up on the OL and DLs.. likely could be a high scoring game?

 

[Triumph]

AI is full of 5hit.

It said that Pete Carroll won Super Bowls as a NFC and AFC HC.

Both teams were the Seahawks.

 

[Pape]

AI is full of 5hit.

It said that Pete Carroll won Super Bowls as a NFC and AFC HC.

Both teams were the Seahawks.

well, technically they used to be in the afc...