Restructuring Wilfork and Our Arithmetic Infatuation

[pencilneckgeek]

We all love to play amateur GM at this time of year, and it's great to see Miguel's dedication translate into a wider appreciation of the salary cap and the trade-offs that need to be made in building a team, but I think folks are getting a bit pre-occupied with addition and subtraction and are missing out on certain aspects of how the salary cap is likely to work for the Pats this year.

Everybody wants to restructure Wilfork's contract, so we don't end up with a $11M+ salary cap hit for an aging DT coming off a major injury. However, if the Pats restructure, they are going to have to guarantee even more money. This applies to any player, but in Wilfork's case, where it is far from certain that he will be effective again, it is premature to be considering adjusting his cap hit for 2014. At best, the Pats will see that he is improving and getting some of the mobility needed to begin training to get into football shape sometime this summer. At that time, negotiations can begin, but there will still be huge questions about his potential effectiveness. One of the things that has made Wilfork so exceptional over the years have been his quick feet, and that is the one skill that he is most likely to lose on account of his achilles injury.

Even should the Pats and Wilfork reach agreement on some sort of incentive-laden deal that gives Wilfork sufficient security and protects the Pats from the significant potential downsides, that won't happen until the part of free agency where big-name signings might occur is long over. Wilfork's money won't be around to sign Talib, Alex Mack, and an impact receiver/TE.

With free salary cap money now available for future year spending, there is every reason to suspect that money freed-up by restructuring Wilfork (and anyone else for whom such a process waits until summer) will be carried into the year to help with mid-year signings or trades needed to shore-up holes in the roster created by injuries or underperforming players or carried into next year, where it will be available for free agent signings.

It's one thing to plan to cut someone to save salary cap money, but restructuring only works if you are committed to them over the long haul and believe that they will perform well for years to come. That might work for McCourty (and I expect it will), but for Wilfork, I don't see that there's any money to be saved in the next month.

 

[50-yard-line]

That's not necessarily true, particularly in this case.

The Pats can save a ton by cutting Wilfork - both sides know that. Both sides also know the percentage of players returning from his kind of injury - and remaining effective - is very low.

The two parties are on great terms, as is evidenced by the fact that BB changed his rule and allowed VW to travel with the team while on IR.

I think Wilfork knows the Pats won't let him hit 11.5 against the cap this year, and I suspect the renegotiation will include massive incentives for playing time and the like.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

The Pats can save a ton by cutting Wilfork - both sides know that. Both sides also know the percentage of players returning from his kind of injury - and remaining effective - is very low.

The two parties are on great terms, as is evidenced by the fact that BB changed his rule and allowed VW to travel with the team while on IR.

I think Wilfork knows the Pats won't let him hit 11.5 against the cap this year, and I suspect the renegotiation will include massive incentives for playing time and the like.

I agree with this, but Wilfork won't have any value until he shows that he can move halfway decently again. That affects both the Pats willingness to sign him and the amount of money that he can get. They are both served best by waiting until later in his recovery to restructure (unless he thinks that he won't make it back).

 

[Brady6]

We all love to play amateur GM at this time of year, and it's great to see Miguel's dedication translate into a wider appreciation of the salary cap and the trade-offs that need to be made in building a team, but I think folks are getting a bit pre-occupied with addition and subtraction and are missing out on certain aspects of how the salary cap is likely to work for the Pats this year.



Everybody wants to restructure Wilfork's contract, so we don't end up with a $11M+ salary cap hit for an aging DT coming off a major injury. However, if the Pats restructure, they are going to have to guarantee even more money. This applies to any player, but in Wilfork's case, where it is far from certain that he will be effective again, it is premature to be considering adjusting his cap hit for 2014. At best, the Pats will see that he is improving and getting some of the mobility needed to begin training to get into football shape sometime this summer. At that time, negotiations can begin, but there will still be huge questions about his potential effectiveness. One of the things that has made Wilfork so exceptional over the years have been his quick feet, and that is the one skill that he is most likely to lose on account of his achilles injury.



Even should the Pats and Wilfork reach agreement on some sort of incentive-laden deal that gives Wilfork sufficient security and protects the Pats from the significant potential downsides, that won't happen until the part of free agency where big-name signings might occur is long over. Wilfork's money won't be around to sign Talib, Alex Mack, and an impact receiver/TE.



With free salary cap money now available for future year spending, there is every reason to suspect that money freed-up by restructuring Wilfork (and anyone else for whom such a process waits until summer) will be carried into the year to help with mid-year signings or trades needed to shore-up holes in the roster created by injuries or underperforming players or carried into next year, where it will be available for free agent signings.



It's one thing to plan to cut someone to save salary cap money, but restructuring only works if you are committed to them over the long haul and believe that they will perform well for years to come. That might work for McCourty (and I expect it will), but for Wilfork, I don't see that there's any money to be saved in the next month.

Personally, I do not understand why everyone is so down on Vince Wilfork. He was a first team all pro in 2012, who had an injury to his Achilles that he sustained in the preseason, he was not able to play his best football in the first 3 games before the tendon completely gave out in game 4. He just turned 32 years old in November. In the early part of his career he played only about 50% of the defensive snaps so the mileage is not that high on him. He probably has 3-4 productive seasons left in him. Ted Washington signed here at age 35, he did not retire till he was 39.

 

[50-yard-line]

Personally, I do not understand why everyone is so down on Vince Wilfork. He was a first team all pro in 2012, who had an injury to his Achilles that he sustained in the preseason, he was not able to play his best football in the first 3 games before the tendon completely gave out in game 4. He just turned 32 years old in November. In the early part of his career he played only about 50% of the defensive snaps so the mileage is not that high on him. He probably has 3-4 productive seasons left in him. Ted Washington signed here at age 35, he did not retire till he was 39.

Wait, what? Who are you and what'd you do with B6?

Weren't you just arguing with me about signing old broken-down pieces?

j/k

I agree with you here and I'm not down on Wilfork (or Wilson for that matter), but the odds of a 330 lb. D-lineman at his age coming back from that particular injury are not good. I don't think there's much of a chance that he'll ever be an every-down player again.

Achilles are about straight-ahead power. When Wilfork popped his, it made sense, seeing how he was getting pushed around in previous weeks.

I also expect that the repairs have improved dramatically in recent years, so I'll keep my fingers crossed.

 

[MassPats38]

Personally, I do not understand why everyone is so down on Vince Wilfork. He was a first team all pro in 2012, who had an injury to his Achilles that he sustained in the preseason, he was not able to play his best football in the first 3 games before the tendon completely gave out in game 4. He just turned 32 years old in November. In the early part of his career he played only about 50% of the defensive snaps so the mileage is not that high on him. He probably has 3-4 productive seasons left in him. Ted Washington signed here at age 35, he did not retire till he was 39.

Look to the nature his injury, age and weight. The odds have been 1 in 3 of any return, and likely with significant reductions in his abilities if he does return. But do you pay for that low probability outcome and pretend it isn't there?

I hope he does come back in form. I hope he is the physical freak that he was pre-injury. Greg Ellis was such a story, but he was about 50 to 75 pounds lighter and not driving off his legs immediately with every snap.

 

[Brady6]

Wait, what? Who are you and what'd you do with B6?

Weren't you just arguing with me about signing old broken-down pieces?

j/k

I agree with you here and I'm not down on Wilfork (or Wilson for that matter), but the odds of a 330 lb. D-lineman at his age coming back from that particular injury are not good. I don't think there's much of a chance that he'll ever be an every-down player again.

Achilles are about straight-ahead power. When Wilfork popped his, it made sense, seeing how he was getting pushed around in previous weeks.

I also expect that the repairs have improved dramatically in recent years, so I'll keep my fingers crossed.

I love Wilfork; I think he is a special player who works hard to keep his body in great condition. I think he is the type of player who can defy the norm, and play for a long time compared to other players at his position. If you look at Wilfork’s career he has improved dramatically as he has aged, 2012 his first season in his 30s was also the first time in his career he was a first team all-pro. He became a playmaker over the prior two seasons, he knocked down or intercepted more passes at the line in 2011 and 2012 than he did in all the other seasons he played combined. In addition to that he had 9 of his 19 career sacks, 12 of his 27 career stuffs, 3 of his 4 career forced fumbles, and 6 of his 13 career fumble recoveries in 2011 and 2012.

I do not think 32 years old is that old for Wilfork either, especially now that we play a 4-3 and he is not in the zero technique, getting beat down every game. In addition to what he does on the field, Wilfork is one of the, if not the most meaningful leader in our locker room, that is worth something. In my mind, cutting Wilfork would fall right under cutting Brady. I do recall some media idiots and fans suggesting we move away from Brady when he blew out his knee back in 2008 and had all the troubles with infections and move forward with Cassel so I am not surprised that this thought process is in place for Wilfork.

Media members, fans, etc. all get wrapped up in the moment, a player goes unnoticed for a while and the greatness of them is forgotten you begin seeing a Matt Cassel or Chris Jones step in and do a good job and that opens questions about how good the injured player is or how much they are worth, it is not until you see them back on the field and see the things they do that nobody else can do that you realize how great they are again.

If I had to guess, Wilfork had one of these injuries since week 2 of the preseason and tried to play through it –
- Achilles Tendinosis
- Achilles Tenosynovitis
- Achilles Tendonitis
- Tennis Leg
- MidPoint and Insertional

I think you will see a lighter Wilfork come September than we have seen in years past, which will prolong his career; I also agree he may not be an every down player. To be honest he never really should have been, it was more of a forced issue because Brace was such a bust and the injuries over the years. I like Siliga and I think he and Wilfork can be a great tandem at the 1-tech DT spot for us next year. We can add another player in the draft to work into that role too, and use Wilfork as the 3-tech like in 2011 when we had Love.

 

[kennyb]

I don't get the point. He has every incentive to cut his pay to vet min plus nltbe incentives. If he doesn't he gets cut. If he heals up great he'll earn the incentives. If not he would have been cut anyway.

 

[Brady6]

Look to the nature his injury, age and weight. The odds have been 1 in 3 of any return, and likely with significant reductions in his abilities if he does return. But do you pay for that low probability outcome and pretend it isn't there?

I hope he does come back in form. I hope he is the physical freak that he was pre-injury. Greg Ellis was such a story, but he was about 50 to 75 pounds lighter and not driving off his legs immediately with every snap.

I hear what you are saying, and it is a tough injury but modern medicine is amazing look at the recoveries we have seen over the years, Peterson, heck even Manning (who I hate) people thought was done. Wilfork consistently wins the offseason award for workout, etc. if anyone can come back from the injury it is he.

 

[Brady6]

I don't get the point. He has every incentive to cut his pay to vet min plus nltbe incentives. If he doesn't he gets cut. If he heals up great he'll earn the incentives. If not he would have been cut anyway.

Let’s be honest, the Patriots signed Wilfork to the deal and his agent agreed to it knowing full well that prior to the 2014 season there was going to be an extension that resulted in a lower APY, I think we should just continue as planned. The agent wanted the high cap hit because it gives him leverage to get more years for Wilfork, and the Patriots wanted the contract to expire at age 32 because they knew he would merit a lower APY at that stage of his career. I do not think anyone the Patriots, Wilfork or most fans expected Wilfork to play out 2014 on his current deal, even on the day they signed it.

Restructure as they likely intended and add in an injury clause to protect against injuries. Three years total puts him at age 35, at that point we can go year to year if he wants to continue.

 

[Zeus]

I agree with you here and I'm not down on Wilfork (or Wilson for that matter), but the odds of a 330 lb. D-lineman at his age coming back from that particular injury are not good. I don't think there's much of a chance that he'll ever be an every-down player again.

I love Wilfork as a player but my guess is that right now he weighs 330 with one foot on the scale. He's got a lot of work to do to get back.

 

[RayClay]

From the little I've read, they are having much more success for players recovering from this injury. The type of player least successful is one that has to cut and jump, WR, RB.

I believe if it's healed it's healed, except for the flexibility issues of skill players. I haven't seen any indication that standing there and pushing is as affected, but haven't read anything specifically about NT types.

So, the issue is salary cap and having a strong inside of the line for the immediate future. An 80-100% Wilfork is better than any other alternative in the short term that I can see. This DT draft class is poor and we don't have a high pick anyway. Nobody's giving away linemen of Wilfork's caliber that I know of and if they did it would cost plenty.

If they know of an undervalued player like Knighton they should grab him, but he's the exception IMO and a good reason Jacksonville is where they are, they are stupid.

Keeping Wilfork and some combination Kelly Armstead and the hard working second year players will give them a couple years to steal a draft pick or player at a very hard to fill position.

It cost us a top pick for Seymour, a trade up in the middle of #1 round for Warren and even the fluke slide of Wilfork required the 21st pick and we have 29 this year in a poor DT class.

If he can't play, he retires.

 

[Brady6]

Wait, what? Who are you and what'd you do with B6?



Weren't you just arguing with me about signing old broken-down pieces?



j/k



I agree with you here and I'm not down on Wilfork (or Wilson for that matter), but the odds of a 330 lb. D-lineman at his age coming back from that particular injury are not good. I don't think there's much of a chance that he'll ever be an every-down player again.



Achilles are about straight-ahead power. When Wilfork popped his, it made sense, seeing how he was getting pushed around in previous weeks.



I also expect that the repairs have improved dramatically in recent years, so I'll keep my fingers crossed.

I will add to my last post that I do not mind retaining our own old broken players because a player like Wilfork I have seen over the last decade and I know his work ethic and I also know that even at a diminished capacity due to age he is better than 95% of the DTs in the NFL.

I know stats aren't the tell all at that position but the best NT on the market Raji had 17 tackles in 16 games last season, Wilfork had 9 in 3 games playing on a bad Achilles. Posters leans on the week 2 game in rain, wind, and torrential down pours in which he had difficulty against Ducasse they ignore that he was also being double teams most snaps and Mangold was the center helping who is the best center in the NFL. Kelly had a sack and Jones had 2 sacks, I would say that having Wilfork in the middle of them is what allowed for that. Buchanan also had a sack while at RDE with Wilfork at RDT and Jones a LDT.

 

[kennyb]

Right, if he can't play he retires. Except the pats need cap room now. And I doubt they let him on the field if they're on the hook for his salary if he's injured.

Vet min plus incentives. Problem solved.

An extension would convert salary to signing bonus. Stupid stupid thing to do with someone who may not play again.

"The pats should just proceed with the restructure as his last year was not real anyway." So they should ignore his oft career ending injury? That's brilliant. That's like you're about to bug a car for 15k. Then it gets wrapped around a tree and may be undrivable. But just ignore that. Pay 15k anyway. "I don't see why you're so down on that car. It was a really nice car last week." Yes but it just got wrapped around a tree.

 

[Deus Irae]

Right, if he can't play he retires. Except the pats need cap room now. And I doubt they let him on the field if they're on the hook for his salary if he's injured.

Vet min plus incentives. Problem solved...

Wilfork has no reason to agree to that deal.

 

[kennyb]

Wilfork has no reason to agree to that deal.

If he doesn't then he's cut. No team would sign him to a high salary deal with big signing bonus. Pats offer would be competitive with everyone else.

 

[Brady6]

Right, if he can't play he retires. Except the pats need cap room now. And I doubt they let him on the field if they're on the hook for his salary if he's injured.



Vet min plus incentives. Problem solved.



An extension would convert salary to signing bonus. Stupid stupid thing to do with someone who may not play again.



"The pats should just proceed with the restructure as his last year was not real anyway." So they should ignore his oft career ending injury? That's brilliant. That's like you're about to bug a car for 15k. Then it gets wrapped around a tree and may be undrivable. But just ignore that. Pay 15k anyway. "I don't see why you're so down on that car. It was a really nice car last week." Yes but it just got wrapped around a tree.

Terrell Suggs is 13 months younger than Wilfork and he suffered a similar injury from which he was able to return in 5 months. Wilfork had surgery on 10/1/2013 which means it will be 11+ months on opening day.

Crabtree who is a wide receiver so the injury would probably be even more impactful in terms of performance because he has to run full speed 50+ times a game returned from a 5/22/13 Achilles injury in December.

Career ending injury percentages are skewed, how many of those players were JAGs who were in camp and most likely to be cut when they suffered the injury. I only look at players similar in prominence to Wilfork and whether they returned and how they played. TJ Moe suffered an Achilles injury and if he never plays that would be considered career ending, but in reality he participated in one day of OTAs so we do not even know of he would have made it in the NFL period.

My point is I am not concerned about if Wilfork will be able to return, I expect him out there week one in the best shape of his career physically, after watching this guys career that is the type of confidence I have in him.

 

[borg]

Questions:
Where is the rehab taking place? Under Patriots supervision? At this point in time, what stage should he be in his rehab? If NE does cut him, will he be able to continue rehab at Gillette? Would he want to?
Which NFL players have had this injury?
Any sightings of Big Vince in NE or S. Fla and how'd he look?

Speculation: Big Vince has been very quiet....playing it the Patriot way. Wouldn't you think Vince would be doing a little media leakage if he felt he had to defend his existence on the NE roster. The lack of anything either means=no worries....or big worries on the health front and there's no point using the media.

Finally......Draft a DL, a C, and a TE........then drop down for more picks and load up on the slightly tarnished (the Dennard's, the Kazinski's, the Son of Sam's) and hope for a hit or two

 

[Deus Irae]

If he doesn't then he's cut. No team would sign him to a high salary deal with big signing bonus. Pats offer would be competitive with everyone else.

Have you ever paid attention to the NFL?

 

[kennyb]

Have you ever paid attention to the NFL?

400 pound guys on one leg don't get much demand. That's what I've seen.