Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora (merged many times)

[PushnPencils]

Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

So what's going through BB's mind as he assembles the 2011 D?
Lets review a few stats from the Patriots 2010 Defense:

Total Defense Rankings:

25th.....points against
19th.....yds/play
30th.....yds/game
23rd.....time of possesion
21st.....TDs
32nd.....1st downs against
32nd.....3rd down %

Defense of the Pass






23rd.....completion %
25th.....TDs
26th.....plays over 20 yds
31st.....passing attempts
27th.....yds/pass
25th.....passing yds/game

1st.....INTs
14th...Sacks

Rushing defense

Top 10 in most categories....
Biggest strength...eliminating big plays

Interesting Stats compared to Jets

Patriots gave up 57 MORE 1st downs through the air than the Jets
Worst 3rd down D by far. Pats failed on 3rd down 47% of the time...Jets 37%
Patriots gave up 5 more 1st downs/game than Jets

Analysis: the 2010 Pass defense was brutal.....nothing new there. I suspect early season deficiencies skewed the total rankings and the secondary became ballhawks the back half of the year. Also, opponents played from behind more often than not due to the high scoring Patriots offense. The eyeball test showed both secondary lapses/inadequacies in the early season and anemic pass pressure behind the LOS throughout the year. With the exception of McCourty's INT proficiency and Mayo's tackling rate, the defense lacked disrupting forces.

What could alter the Patriots standing in the pass defense categories and win column?

I'll argue all day long that if the Pats can improve their QB pass pressure, the offense will benefit and their brutal 3rd down deficiencies will be minimized. JUST ONE extra 3 and out instead of a bend but hopefully not break defensive stand as the opponent marches would be statistically huge. Forcing JUST ONE extra punt would alter the time of possesion imbalance. Forcing JUST ONE errant pass or JUST ONE QB fumble would provide a higher % scoring oportunity for the offense. Finally, JUST ONE extra disruptive play could change the fortunes of a close game.....ahem...cough cough....Jets playoffs.
One last point, Big money has been thrown at the offense .....Brady/Light/Mankins/Koppen/Ocho and to a lesser extent Welker and Branch.
On the defense...Vince, Fat Al, Bodden. I realize Mayo will be comming up
soon, but in $$$ terms, there is very little balance.
I'll take Osi in a second because just one extra disruptive play a game can have a huge domino affect over the course of that game. And with Vince and Fat Al in the middle, I expect much more disruption than JUST ONE

Can we sticky this? It makes way too much sense.

 

[Fixit]

Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

They were 25th in points against?

 

[Mogamedogz]

Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

I’m patiently awaiting the "CAP HELL !!!!" rebuttals to Borgs post. I can use a good laugh.

 

[Haley]

Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

I’m patiently awaiting the "CAP HELL !!!!" rebuttals to Borgs post. I can use a good laugh.

Here is the thing. According to those numbers that patsfanken drew up from Miguel's page, we really outta have the cap for this. I don't see how that can really be in question.

 

[PushnPencils]

98.5 Source...Osi to Jets?

10.....FRICKIN'!!! characters.

 

[goheels22002]

Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

So what's going through BB's mind as he assembles the 2011 D?
Lets review a few stats from the Patriots 2010 Defense:

Total Defense Rankings:

25th.....points against
19th.....yds/play
30th.....yds/game
23rd.....time of possesion
21st.....TDs
32nd.....1st downs against
32nd.....3rd down %

Defense of the Pass

23rd.....completion %
25th.....TDs
26th.....plays over 20 yds
31st.....passing attempts
27th.....yds/pass
25th.....passing yds/game

1st.....INTs
14th...Sacks

Rushing defense

Top 10 in most categories....
Biggest strength...eliminating big plays

Interesting Stats compared to Jets

Patriots gave up 57 MORE 1st downs through the air than the Jets
Worst 3rd down D by far. Pats failed on 3rd down 47% of the time...Jets 37%
Patriots gave up 5 more 1st downs/game than Jets

Analysis: the 2010 Pass defense was brutal.....nothing new there. I suspect early season deficiencies skewed the total rankings and the secondary became ballhawks the back half of the year. Also, opponents played from behind more often than not due to the high scoring Patriots offense. The eyeball test showed both secondary lapses/inadequacies in the early season and anemic pass pressure behind the LOS throughout the year. With the exception of McCourty's INT proficiency and Mayo's tackling rate, the defense lacked disrupting forces.

What could alter the Patriots standing in the pass defense categories and win column?

I'll argue all day long that if the Pats can improve their QB pass pressure, the offense will benefit and their brutal 3rd down deficiencies will be minimized. JUST ONE extra 3 and out instead of a bend but hopefully not break defensive stand as the opponent marches would be statistically huge. Forcing JUST ONE extra punt would alter the time of possesion imbalance. Forcing JUST ONE errant pass or JUST ONE QB fumble would provide a higher % scoring oportunity for the offense. Finally, JUST ONE extra disruptive play could change the fortunes of a close game.....ahem...cough cough....Jets playoffs.
One last point, Big money has been thrown at the offense .....Brady/Light/Mankins/Koppen/Ocho and to a lesser extent Welker and Branch.
On the defense...Vince, Fat Al, Bodden. I realize Mayo will be comming up soon, but in $$$ terms, there is very little balance.
I'll take Osi in a second because just one extra disruptive play a game can have a huge domino affect over the course of that game. And with Vince and Fat Al in the middle, I expect much more disruption than JUST ONE

A couple of stats above are meaningless and indicate that opponents are playing from behind - most games, from way behind. Stuff like passing attempts, passing yards, and the worst stat of all - time of possession - just tell you the Pats are killing opponents who rack up big plays trying to get back in the game.

Time of possession is useless when you have a Patriots passing game that runs many plays in a short period of time scoring TDs, stopping the clock by going out-of-bounds or on incompletions. Time-of-possession is become less relevant as the rules put skirts on the QBs and the DBs cannot touch receivers.

The passing defense stats are similarly bogus and possibly negated by being #1 in the league in interceptions last year (cool!) with youngsters doing a lot of the intercepting as the opponents fling it up there praying for a big play.

Disconcerting in all of this is 3rd down percentage which gives us and the coaching staff aneurisms and wears down a defense. Third down is hugely situational, however. This is where Haynesworth and Umenyori could make a tremendous difference. If the Pats could control the line of scrimmage on third down, a lot of that short yardage success would diminish in both the running and passing games. The 2011 LBs and DBs have the speed and athleticism to hit the gaps and stay with their receivers long enough to disrupt third downs.

In 2007, the undefeated Patriots were #1 in 3rd down conversion percentage on offense and #4 in 3rd down conversion percentage on defense. In the Richard Seymour-Jarvis Green-Ty Warren-Vince Wilfork 2007 season, the Pats stonewalled the offensive line and gave the back seven or eight time to hit the gaps. In 2010-11, the Pats were once again #1 on 3rd down offensively but dead last defensively. The Pats weren't much better on 4th down when opponents converted 60% of the time ranking them 23rd out of 32 teams. Aaaaaarrrrghh!!!

 

[Sivy]

re: 98.5 Source...Osi to Jets?

There is nothing on the biggest news source in the world (Twitter) so I dont buy it yet.

 

[PatriotsInGA]

re: 98.5 Source...Osi to Jets?

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo*



Assuming the football god Adam Schefter reports it

 

[Kid~Brady]

re: 98.5 Source...Osi to Jets?

There is nothing on the biggest news source in the world (Twitter) so I dont buy it yet.

exactly. i dont want to hear this

 

[borg]

Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

They were 25th in points against?

Good catch.

Should be....points given up thru air (Passing TDS)

Edited and fixed

 

[patriot lifer]

re: 98.5 Source...Osi to Jets?

As an OLB? I guess at 260 pounds he could play OLB. Must have been for the 2nd rounder, if it in fact happened. How can they afford to pay this guy exactly??

 

[Froob]

re: 98.5 Source...Osi to Jets?

You have better be kidding.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

I agree with the overall point - but based on my perusal of Miguel's pages and my assumptions about the cap going forward, they could afford to add Osi. It might require them to do some of the stuff Rob talks about in the post above - which isn't necessarily their style. So it probably won't happen. But I can't rule it out.

It hasn't been their style to do BS backloaded contracts since the days of Bobby Greer...and we all know how than turned out. There was a reason Ty and Lawyer couldn't remain here, and it wasn't just production in Lawyer's case, it was cost over production and in Ty's case just flat out cap cost. Those deals will always hamstring you down the road. The way out is to spent exesses of cash over cap and just screw the sunk cost (dead cap) and then do it again with the next guy in line...not some new revelation. Kraft is too good a businessman to go down that road. He and Bill prefer the largely pay as you go plan, even with their QB. And as Andrew Brandt opined weeks ago, that is the method that will allow teams to best navigate the new lower cap and eventual cash floor.

 

[PushnPencils]

re: 98.5 Source...Osi to Jets?

exactly. i dont want to hear this

Yeah, I'm hoping this is just one of fat Gresh's "sources".

Quoting...said....close to a deal.

 

[Username]

re: 98.5 Source...Osi to Jets?

Have we learned nothing from the Nnamdi to Jets hype?

 

[Haley]

re: 98.5 Source...Osi to Jets?

Bah! Lies I tell you, LIES!

I call shenanigans!!!

 

[Urgent]

re: 98.5 Source...Osi to Jets?

Wow.
If true that really improves their defense.
They had similar struggles with pass rush.
Hats off to them for pulling this off.

 

[Kid~Brady]

re: 98.5 Source...Osi to Jets?

Rex is desperate if he does, he already overpayed for Cro, I could see him going over the edge to pay this guy.

This makes their defense that much better. We better get Mankins fast!

 

[Ice Cold Bruschi]

re: 98.5 Source...Osi to Jets?

Theres nothing to indicate that this has come to pass

 

[patriot lifer]

re: 98.5 Source...Osi to Jets?

The Jets boards have no mention of this, at least as of now.