Reading the Tea Leaves on Mayo and Wolf (Personal Speculation)

[NE_Zealot]

I think if it was up to Jonathan, he would clean house and get the top talent in the league. He seems to be the most business-like of the two.
Robert is too sentimental. I think if it never came to head between Belichick and Brady, he would have let Brady play with the Pats forever even if Brady was using a walker and had to throw the ball with two hands. He should have fired Belichick after the Patricia fiasco (reports are Jonathan wanted to). I think he will hold onto Mayo because of personal reasons and not football reasons.

Unless Jonathan takes over or Robert, seeing his own mortality, wants to make this team a winner before he dies and changes how he does business, I think Mayo gets a second year.

Personally, I think in time Mayo could become a good or great head coach. I think the problem is the Pats will have to waste much or most of Maye's rookie contract to get there. I don't think the Pats have the time.

My guess what will happen is Mayo will get another year. Much of his coaching staff will be fired. Hopefully, they will get an OC with a lot of experience who can almost be a co-head coach and run the offense more autonomously and allow Mayo to focus on the defense. I think that is the best case scenario.

It might be tough finding coordinators to hitch their wagon to Mayo. In year one he’s already losing people in the locker room. It could be a good move if you’re an opportunist and you know Mayo will be gone and you get promoted to HC.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I cannot help but think Pioli/Vrabel/JMcD makes them immediately better. Same for Dimitroff/Flores with an OC TBD.

I think Dimitroff did a good job in ATL. Once Matty Ice started to age he became vulnerable.

Pioli had problems in KC.

Thats why not having a franchise QB is a death blow.

Thats why I think the #1 priority is to continue to invest in Maye. They cannot afford to f him up. Needs good coaching and talent.

I'm not sure I want Flo around Maye.

 

[Rob0729]

I am not sure why everyone wants Vrabel. I like the guy, but it isn't like he was wildly successful in Tennessee. Plus he is a defensive guy. I would rather have Ben Johnson and there are probably other offensive coordinators I might want to have although I don't know who off hand.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I am not sure why everyone wants Vrabel. I like the guy, but it isn't like he was wildly successful in Tennessee. Plus he is a defensive guy. I would rather have Ben Johnson and there are probably other offensive coordinators I might want to have although I don't know who off hand.

We want Vrabel because he is a good coach and has won.

Ownership in TN is a joke and Jon Robinson was not a very good GM.

Hiring a rookie HC like Johnson to turn this franchise around is a very, very risky move. I would only consider Johnson if we had a very senior, proven GM/EVP running the org....and we don't.

 

[jmt57]

Excellent initial post @mgcolby , well done.


There are many astute and perceptive responses, but two in particular stood out to me.

The Krafts need to hire a head of football operations and key that person run the team

One of Belichick's associates (I guess Lombardi) revealed a parting shot from Belichick maybe a month later after he was fired. Belichick said the Krafts "think they know football..."

Either you do or you don't. I trust Belichick's assessment that they don't.

Until you get someone who knows what they're doing, things aren't likely to change.

Coaches have to have expertise. You can't just stick anyone in there. But the fact you fired Belichick and installed an incapable person because you thought you knew football, well that doesn't bode well for the future. There will be absolutely no confidence at all in anything the Kraft's do until someone who knows football is there to make the decisions.

I compare this to the Bills. They kept firing their coaches until the very moment they let someone else make the decisions, and then instantly they found a guy who could coach.

For so very long the organizational chart had a strong deliniation between the business side of operations, and the football side of operations. With the Patriots fielding winning teams year after year, for an unprecedented amount of time in the salary cap/free agency era, the Krafts had zero reason to get involved in the football side of operations. (The one time they should have stepped in - to insure Tom Brady would retire as a Patriot - they failed to do so.)

The cold harsh reality is that RK and JK need to look in the mirror and realize that they do not have the expertise to make football decisions. Yes, they are the owners - but that does not mean that they have football expertise. What they need to do is hire the best manager that they can find, a person who has the knowledge, expertise and experience to run a successful football organization.

From there that person can build the organizational chart on the football side of operations that will result in a successful, winning team. Rather than focusing on the various members of the football staff (Mayo, AVP, Wolf, Groh, etc), focus instead on getting the right person to run your business.


Absolutely nothing is going to improve until that happens. And if it does not, expect this team to have identical results as other teams that failed to do the same - such as Washington under Dan Snyder's ownership, the Browns ever since they re-entered the league with the Lerners and Haslams as owners, etc.

The Krafts are business people. Make a smart business decision. Hire talented mangers to run your business.

 

[Rob0729]

It's more important to understand what went down in the relationship between Kraft and Parcells prior to 1996.

By 1996, I would've done the exact thing that Kraft did regarding Parcells.

But what did I do earlier to make Parcells want to leave?

Remember, in 1995, Parcells met with the Jets PRIOR to the NFL draft. After coming back from the meeting with them, Parcells went to Kraft and asked that Kraft reduce his contract to 1 yr and his buyout clause. Kraft did that. But there were rumors about Parcells and the Jets already. It would have been madness to allow the future head coach of your arch rival to select your players when you had very high draft picks.

Add to that Will McDonough's contention that Parcells intended to draft a dud like Cedric Jones over Terry Glenn, and we should be happy that Parcells slammed the door on his way out of the draft room.

The only real question is, what did Kraft do to make Parcells want to leave prior to 1995?

I'll speculate a couple of things that make me suspicious of both men: Parcells has always been a guy who wants to leave teams early. He tried to break out of his Giants contract. He did it with the Patriots. He did some dastardly stuff to Belichick at the end with the Jets. Then he bolted the Jets GM position to coach the Cowboys.

I remember vividly how Parcells look on at Kraft with complete disgust when Kraft talked him up after winning the 1996 AFC Championship game. They HATED each other.

Something else sticks out. Kraft raked Parcells over the coals in the media for selecting a center (Joe Burch) in the 3rd round of the 1994 draft, because Burch was cut in training camp. Kraft did not take that selection well. I am just speculating but THIS was the start of Kraft taking Parcells' GM duties away from him. I remember the Burch criticism vividly. And I think this is what lead to the breach between the coach and the owner.

Look back at Kraft's history. He has a history of taking away player acquisition responsibilities from coaches.

Kraft sided with Grier. He felt Grier should be making the personnel decisions and not Parcells. That was how it was done virtually everywhere back in the 90s. Few if any coaches had complete control. That was the early Belichick era where that happened more frequently.

Parcells has had messy divorces almost everywhere he went. He tried to get the GM job with the Giants while he was still with the Cowboys. It is widely believed that he stopped being the head coach of the Jets to block Belichick from leaving to go to the Patriots. The only place he didn't quit coaching without controversy was the Giants.

To put all the blame on Kraft is revising history. Yes, he could have handled the Parcells situation better and he has admitted that. But I would put more of the blame on Parcells than Kraft. Kraft changed the way he did business after the Parcells incident and gave Belichick almost complete control of the franchise.

And Parcells never actually had the GM roll. Orthwein just didn't give a crap about allowing Parcells to act as GM on top of being head coach and Kraft didn't change the structure right away when he bought the team and was a new owner.

 

[Ross12]

I think Dimitroff did a good job in ATL. Once Matty Ice started to age he became vulnerable.

Pioli had problems in KC.

Thats why not having a franchise QB is a death blow.

Thats why I think the #1 priority is to continue to invest in Maye. They cannot afford to f him up. Needs good coaching and talent.

I'm not sure I want Flo around Maye.

I agree with you about Dimitroff.

Hot take, but… I actually think Flo is a great match for Maye. Yes, he’s a hardass but I think Maye has some stones and he would take the criticism well. He’s not some emotionally soft diva. If Flores came in and said “Maye you’re really sucking ass at this specific thing”, Maye would work hard to fix it. He wouldn’t cry about it or throw a tantrum. And he would also probably welcome having a coach who pushes them to excel and demands performance but backs it up with good coaching himself.

Also putting Tua up against Flores on the sidelines twice a year is some mental warfare that I’m definitely down for

 

[Steve102]

We want Vrabel because he is a good coach and has won.

Ownership in TN is a joke and Jon Robinson was not a very good GM.

Hiring a rookie HC like Johnson to turn this franchise around is a very, very risky move. I would only consider Johnson if we had a very senior, proven GM/EVP running the org....and we don't.

The proven GM thing is key, even with a proven or semi-proven HC.

 

[Rob0729]

We want Vrabel because he is a good coach and has won.

Ownership in TN is a joke and Jon Robinson was not a very good GM.

Hiring a rookie HC like Johnson to turn this franchise around is a very, very risky move. I would only consider Johnson if we had a very senior, proven GM/EVP running the org....and we don't.

What has Vrabel won? He is 2-3 in the playoffs. He is a good coach. Yes, he had a crap situation in Tennessee. But I don't know if he is the right guy for this team that needs to be built around Maye.

I wouldn't be opposed to him being the head coach, but I don't know if he is the guy that the Pats absolutely have to get either.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Ownership in TN is a joke and Jon Robinson was not a very good GM.

Robinson actually drafted some pretty good players in Tennessee and brought in FA's who made the Pro Bowl. His only blemish was the trade of AJ Brown. Most of the time it's not good for Ownership to meddle, but this was an exception where you have to step in and say no. That was an idiotic trade.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I agree with you about Dimitroff.

Hot take, but… I actually think Flo is a great match for Maye. Yes, he’s a hardass but I think Maye has some stones and he would take the criticism well. He’s not some emotionally soft diva. If Flores came in and said “Maye you’re really sucking ass at this specific thing”, Maye would work hard to fix it. He wouldn’t cry about it or throw a tantrum. And he would also probably welcome having a coach who pushes them to excel and demands performance but backs it up with good coaching himself.

Also putting Tua up against Flores on the sidelines twice a year is some mental warfare that I’m definitely down for

Great points. Love Flo. Thought he got a bad rap in MIA. Chris Grier is a POS.

You might be right about Maye. Def isn't as much of a 'dona like Tua.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

What has Vrabel won? He is 2-3 in the playoffs. He is a good coach. Yes, he had a crap situation in Tennessee. But I don't know if he is the right guy for this team that needs to be built around Maye.

I wouldn't be opposed to him being the head coach, but I don't know if he is the guy that the Pats absolutely have to get either.

If your criteria to hire a coach is what he has won? Outside of McVay and Reid then we shouldn’t hire anybody.

Vrabel has been voted coach of the year, has been to an AFCCG and has been the 1 seed with Tannehill and beat a Brady/Belichick team multiple times. That’s better than 80% of the coaches in this league

 

[KCSVEN]

We want Vrabel because he is a good coach and has won.

Ownership in TN is a joke and Jon Robinson was not a very good GM.

Hiring a rookie HC like Johnson to turn this franchise around is a very, very risky move. I would only consider Johnson if we had a very senior, proven GM/EVP running the org....and we don't.

Johnson's people told Bears Poles would have to go as GM if he would consider that job. Same would be for Pats, Wolf would go.

Johnson is my choice because in the modern NFL those are the type of coaches that win and win for the long term.

Vrabel is only as good as the coordinators he hires and if one does really well, he leaves. He hired terrible coaches at the end of his tenure in Tenn. He was terrible finding offensive coaches. He's basically what Kraft wanted Mayo to be, set a great culture, make in game decisions well, but totally relies on his ability to hire good coaches.
He was also 55-45 in a very weak division most years with Tenn. His 1 year as a DC he ranked 32nd in points allowed so not sure his defensive coaching is great.

The benefit of Reid, O Connell, Taylor, Payton, Lafleur, Shanahan etc. is you have your OC as the HC, he's not leaving. Not a fan of the OC's that have star QB's. Johnson took a middling Goff and had made him play really well.

IMO Ben Johnson is THE GUY but Krafts are not going to do that IMO.

 

[RobertWeathers]

What has Vrabel won? He is 2-3 in the playoffs. He is a good coach. Yes, he had a crap situation in Tennessee. But I don't know if he is the right guy for this team that needs to be built around Maye.

I wouldn't be opposed to him being the head coach, but I don't know if he is the guy that the Pats absolutely have to get either.

He is a 10x upgrade over Mayo. I'd like to see him with an actual QB.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Johnson's people told Bears Poles would have to go as GM if he would consider that job. Same would be for Pats, Wolf would go.

Johnson is my choice because in the modern NFL those are the type of coaches that win and win for the long term.

Vrabel is only as good as the coordinators he hires and if one does really well, he leaves. He hired terrible coaches at the end of his tenure in Tenn. He was terrible finding offensive coaches. He's basically what Kraft wanted Mayo to be, set a great culture, make in game decisions well, but totally relies on his ability to hire good coaches.
He was also 55-45 in a very weak division most years with Tenn. His 1 year as a DC he ranked 32nd in points allowed so not sure his defensive coaching is great.

The benefit of Reid, O Connell, Taylor, Payton, Lafleur, Shanahan etc. is you have your OC as the HC, he's not leaving. Not a fan of the OC's that have star QB's. Johnson took a middling Goff and had made him play really well.

IMO Ben Johnson is THE GUY but Krafts are not going to do that IMO.

I'd argue the roster talent leaving TN was the issue - not the coaching.

A rookie HC/GM? No thank you.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Robinson actually drafted some pretty good players in Tennessee and brought in FA's who made the Pro Bowl. His only blemish was the trade of AJ Brown. Most of the time it's not good for Ownership to meddle, but this was an exception where you have to step in and say no. That was an idiotic trade.

His first 2-3 years were fine drafting-wise. After that is was BB esque.

I blame ownership and Robinson on the Brown trade.

 

[upstater1]

Is this on the internet anywhere?

They cut to it during a game.

 

[upstater1]

Kraft sided with Grier. He felt Grier should be making the personnel decisions and not Parcells. That was how it was done virtually everywhere back in the 90s. Few if any coaches had complete control. That was the early Belichick era where that happened more frequently.

Parcells has had messy divorces almost everywhere he went. He tried to get the GM job with the Giants while he was still with the Cowboys. It is widely believed that he stopped being the head coach of the Jets to block Belichick from leaving to go to the Patriots. The only place he didn't quit coaching without controversy was the Giants.

To put all the blame on Kraft is revising history. Yes, he could have handled the Parcells situation better and he has admitted that. But I would put more of the blame on Parcells than Kraft. Kraft changed the way he did business after the Parcells incident and gave Belichick almost complete control of the franchise.

And Parcells never actually had the GM roll. Orthwein just didn't give a crap about allowing Parcells to act as GM on top of being head coach and Kraft didn't change the structure right away when he bought the team and was a new owner.

??

How did you get this response to what I wrote?

I said I agreed with Kraft's decision not to allow Parcells to control the draft in 1996.

 

[upstater1]

His first 2-3 years were fine drafting-wise. After that is was BB esque.

So, he improved.

 

[RobertWeathers]

So, he improved.

No. He got worse .