qb playoff passer ratings: Bart Starr #1 You'll never guess where Brady is (#14)

[neuronet]

Sorry I couldn't resist the clickbait title.
NFL Passer Rating Career Playoffs Leaders | Pro-Football-Reference.com

I think the following require minimum 10 playoff games [Edit no it doesn't -- not sure of minimum]

1 Bart Starr+ 104.8 1956-1971 gnb
2 Kurt Warner+ 102.8 1998-2009 2TM
3 Matt Ryan 100.8 2008-2018 atl
4 Drew Brees 100.0 2001-2018 2TM
5 Aaron Rodgers 99.4 2005-2018 gnb
6 Nick Foles 98.8 2012-2018 phi
7 Alex Smith 97.4 2005-2018 2TM
8 Joe Montana+ 95.6 1979-1994 2TM
9 Russell Wilson 94.9 2012-2018 sea
10 Mark Sanchez 94.3 2009-2018 nyj
11 Ken Anderson 93.5 1971-1986 cin
12 Tony Romo 93.0 2004-2016 dal
13 Joe Theismann 91.4 1974-1985 was
14 Tom Brady 90.5 2000-2018 nwe
15 Joe Flacco 88.6 2008-2018 rav
16 Troy Aikman+ 88.3 1989-2000 dal
17 Cam Newton 87.7 2011-2018 car
18 Eli Manning 87.4 2004-2018 nyg
Peyton Manning 87.4 1998-2015 2TM
20 Colin Kaepernick 87.3 2011

I found this interesting, and thought Brady would be higher. In the GOAT arguments, I think people largely have just accepted Brady is the winner, but this stat could be used by people who want to push for Starr or ... Alex Smith. Ok sorry I couldn't stop from laughing.

I guess my question is why is this a bad metric, given that it is by definition, because Mark Sanchez is above Tom Brady.

Not asking to be a troll, but because genuinely interested in what the many many people with higher football IQs at this board would say.

 

[SBLIII]

there are many explanations for it. One is bigger sample size, two is better defenses the deeper you get into the postseason usually, three is different eras but the sample size is by far the biggest factor.

 

[catent]

Sample size is an obvious one. Brady has played more playoff games, thus one particularly strong performance is less likely to inflate his average postseason passer rating.

What do those passer ratings look like in the 4th quarter, and more specifically, with less than 5 minutes to play?

In what rounds of the postseason were those passer ratings posted? Brady has been to more Super Bowls and AFCCGs than those other quarterbacks, meaning Brady has played against tougher competition. It's easier to put up strong numbers against lesser teams in the wildcard & divisional round. Segment passer rating by round of the postseason.

Statistics without context are largely meaningless.

 

[neuronet]

there are many explanations for it. One is bigger sample size, two is better defenses the deeper you get into the postseason usually, three is different eras but the sample size is by far the biggest factor.

Didn't Starr get to 5 championships? There is a recency bias too, so people are likely to favor people who are most recent.

 

[sb1]

Sample size.
Brady has 40 playoff games played. Nobody else is close.

Also Brady has played in more than one era of football- both before and after the Polian rule changes to favor the passing game.

 

[upstater1]

Passer rating has always been suspect. During the QB era of the 1980s with Dan Marino, Joe Montana, John Elway, Dan Fouts, Jim Kelly and Warren Moon slinging it, a guy named Ken O'Brien used to finish in the top constantly, and even lead those QBs one year.

It wasn't until Steve Young came on the scene that people started taking passer rating seriously. Young was probably the most efficient QB of all time.

 

[FirstAndGoal]

Passer rating is a made up stat with someone determining what's important. I pay attention to passer rating about as much as I pay attention to passes defended.... I don't. It's just a way of gathering information.

 

[Flash]

Brady also does whatever necessary to win the game. He won't hesitate to hand the ball off at the goal line or throwing a pass away. That's why his passer rating is always going to be lower than someone like Rodgers or Wilson who scrambles around and look for openings.

 

[203Pat]

Passer rating is a made up stat with someone determining what's important. I pay attention to passer rating about as much as I pay attention to passes defended.... I don't. It's just a way of gathering information.

Lol what? Then what do you pay attention to in regards to quarterbacks? Passer rating factors in all the aspects of a QB aside from rushing. Why wouldn’t you pay attention to passes defended?

 

[Tony2046]

Here's an interesting article explaining the flaws of QB ratings.

Each of the component stats in passer rating are scaled and assigned a value between 0 and 2.375, with 1.0 being statistically average...based on the league data between 1960 and 1970. That's right, passer rating is scaled to data that is at least 43 years old. I think it is safe to say that the league has changed a little since then.

What doesn't make sense, however, is the weight that passer rating gives to merely completing passes. Consider the following stat lines:

Attempts Completions Yards TDs INTs
QB A 40 40 100 0 0
QB B 40 20 325 0 0

Who would you rather take? Give me those 325 yards, and it is no contest. QB A has completed 100% of his passes, but for 2.5 yards per attempt (i.e. worse than Charlie Frye's career average). QB B might have only completed 50% of his passes, but he's still geting 8.125 yards every time he throws the ball, meaning completions are going for 16.25 a pop!

Passer rating still rates QB A as the better passer by about a point and a half, equating a mere completed pass (and no yards) to 20 yards of offense. This should sound ridiculous to every fan. While there may be some value to consistency, these examples show how completion percentage is over-emphasized in the formula.

Passer Rating's Shortcomings

 

[Joey007]

I have to think the Super Bowl this year may have lowered Tom’s rating.

Also: I bet this number is much higher if you take playoff games that are from 2011 to present. Those have been a large bulk of his career postseason appearances.

 

[SBLIII]

I have to think the Super Bowl this year may have lowered Tom’s rating.

Also: I bet this number is much higher if you take playoff games that are from 2011 to present. Those have been a large bulk of his career postseason appearances.

I think it's 93 post 2011 and 86 pre 2011

 

[captain stone]

Brady's thrown too many INTs in the POs recently, including the SBs, thus his overall career PO passer rating isn't as high as the others. Most of those INTs were simply terrible decisions, too, and not really forced.

 

[SBLIII]

Brady's thrown too many INTs in the POs recently, including the SBs, thus his overall career PO passer rating isn't as high as the others. Most of those INTs were simply terrible decisions, too, and not really forced.

The Ints vs LA and KC were awful.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Brady’s career passer rating is around 97 and postseason around 90. That’s exactly where it should be, about 5-10 points lower adjusted for better defenses and often more challenging weather.

You don’t need to look beyond small sample size. Most of the guys on the list don’t even have an entire season worth of games. Brady has 2.5 full seasons.

Just like Eli is “the most clutch” postseason QB ever, yet somehow he isn’t even good/clutch enough to get there and win a game in 14/16 of his seasons. Let him play in 40 postseason games and tell me again how great he is.

Small. Sample. Size. Absolutely nothing more to it.

 

[203Pat]

I’ll take Brady’s relatively crappy SB53 stat line and a ring over his phenomenal SB52 stat line and a loss any day.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I’ll take Brady’s relatively crappy SB53 stat line and a ring over his phenomenal SB52 stat line and a loss any day.

Really? He played like 10X better in SB52 against Philadelphia. The end result can skew our view of reality. It was the only game in NFL history where a QB passed for 500+ yards, 3+ TDs, and no picks, and still lost. That game wasn’t on him. Meanwhile, scoring 13 points is typically a recipe for getting blown out in a game that’s supposed to be a shootout.

I’m just glad it all evens out. Most points scored by a loss. Least points scored in a win. Back to back years with opposite end Super Bowl records.

 

[203Pat]

Really? He played like 10X better in SB52 against Philadelphia. The end result can skew our view of reality. It was the only game in NFL history where a QB passed for 500+ yards, 3+ TDs, and no picks, and still lost. That game wasn’t on him. Meanwhile, scoring 13 points is typically a recipe for getting blown out in a game that’s supposed to be a shootout.

I’m just glad it all evens out. Most points scored by a loss. Least points scored in a win. Back to back years with opposite end Super Bowl records.

That’s what I’m saying. I’ll take the ring over the stats. I’m sure most would. I’m also glad that it wasn’t Brady’s fault that we lost that Super Bowl.

 

[bormio]

The fact is Starr was an amazing big game QB. As is Brady. However Starr had great running games, more able to pick spots. Brady more often tasked with winning via his arm.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Brady's thrown too many INTs in the POs recently, including the SBs, thus his overall career PO passer rating isn't as high as the others. Most of those INTs were simply terrible decisions, too, and not really forced.

Hold on a sec. A little perspective on this...

In Tom's last 16 playoff games hes thrown 12 picks in 702 pass attempts (along w/ 31 TDs).

That is pretty damn good ball security.