QB of the future

[miloofcroton]

Unless something changes this year, I think it will be too early for the top three underclassmen that I've ear-marked:

Feleipe Franks
KJ Costello
Jacob Eason

Looking at guys who are realistically going to be in the next draft, I see the following as the best passers:

Ryan Finley
Brian Lewerke
Easton Stick
Kyle Kempt
Brad Mayes

• Finley is a future NFL starter. He has the intelligence and the grit to do it, and he's also 6'5" with a good enough arm, great accuracy, and proven decision making. I'd like to see him clean up his mechanics and practice putting greater zip on the ball, but he has enough tools. If the Pats nab him, they could turn him into a Brady clone.
• Lewerke has a very high ceiling. It would be easy to say his ceiling is the next Aaron Rodgers, but I'm still not 100% convinced of his maturity and ability to progress mentally. He generally makes good decisions, and he has all the tools and more. I didn't realize it until I had watched a lot of his tape, but his athleticism isn't far off from guys that were considered freaks at QB, like Jake Locker. I think he's the top QB prospect that will be eligible for the next draft and will go top 5. Between Finley and Lewerke, I'm not sure who I'd want on *my* team though.
• Easton Stick has a good amount of success to his name, and he has the right tools. His robotic mechanics and slow decision making worry me a little.
• Kempt looks decent and at least a cut above the 'pretenders'. Probably a decent backup at minimum.
• Mayes is a real small school prospect, but he has a lot of things going for him. I might put him above Stick and Kempt if I saw him more. He seems to have a really good personality type for NFL QB.

 

[captain stone]

This LSU kid isn't making the squad.

Never write a QB off. Stranger things have happened.

Not this time they have.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Unless something changes this year, I think it will be too early for the top three underclassmen that I've ear-marked:

Feleipe Franks
KJ Costello
Jacob Eason

Looking at guys who are realistically going to be in the next draft, I see the following as the best passers:

Brian Lewerke
Ryan Finley
Easton Stick
Kyle Kempt
Brad Mayes

• Lewerke has a very high ceiling. Could be the next Aaron Rodgers. I'm not seeing anyone else call him even a 1st rounder, but that's what it is. People are wooed by the arm talent and legs of Herbert and Stidham, but Lewerke is the talent.
• Finley is a solid potential starter, but not sure what his ceiling is.
• Easton Stick could be a good one. Need to evaluate him further, but he has tools, success, and pedigree.
• Kempt looks decent and at least a cut above the 'pretenders'.
• Mayes is a real small school prospect, but he has a lot of things going for him.

You need to keep in mind right now who needs a QB. You have the Dolphins, Giants, maybe the bucs if they move from Winston.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

I am a will grier fan. I think he’s gonna be a good pro but he’s gonna be 24 next year.

 

[miloofcroton]

You need to keep in mind right now who needs a QB. You have the Dolphins, Giants, maybe the bucs if they move from Winston.

True, but who are they going to take? My #1 isn't currently everyone else's number 1, 2, 3, or 4.

I watched Shea Patterson vs Notre Dame. What utter garbage he is at QB. I see that he has physical talent, but he's just not good at being a QB.

I also saw Khalil Tate and Justin Herbert get shutdown in their respective games. The Spread is no cure all, people.

Jake Browning was exposed vs Auburn. I know, I know. Auburn has an SEC defense that would ravage a Pacific Northwest team, but still. Browning won't last in the NFL.

Stidham looked above average though. I'll have to add him back to my list, conditionally. I forget if I had dropped him for intangibles reasons or if he didn't seem that good on the field. I believe was questionable decision making.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

True, but who are they going to take? My #1 isn't currently everyone else's number 1, 2, 3, or 4.

I watched Shea Patterson vs Notre Dame. What utter garbage he is at QB. I see that he has physical talent, but he's just not good at being a QB.

I also saw Khalil Tate and Justin Herbert get shutdown in their respective games. The Spread is no cure all, people.

Jake Browning was exposed vs Auburn. I know, I know. Auburn has an SEC defense that would ravage a Pacific Northwest team, but still. Browning won't last in the NFL.

Stidham looked above average though. I'll have to add him back to my list, conditionally. I forget if I had dropped him for intangibles reasons or if he didn't seem that good on the field. I believe was questionable decision making.

Shutdown is way too harsh for Herbert to say the least. Definitely not his best game but he wasn't shutdown. 5 passing TD's, 1 rushing TD, a few drops & was taken out in the 3rd I believe.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Maybe we need to wait for tua to be draft eligible.

He looked magnificent for Alabama against Louisville.

 

[miloofcroton]

Shutdown is way too harsh for Herbert to say the least. Definitely not his best game but he wasn't shutdown. 5 passing TD's, 1 rushing TD, a few drops & was taken out in the 3rd I believe.

Fair. I was addressing that 47% completion percentage. I'm always wary about QBs with sub 60% rates. They rarely get better. Josh Allen this year is going to be a perfect example.

 

[long distance]

Ta'amu makes his presence felt..

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Hornibrook caught my eye last year as someone who is inconsistent but shows the ability to throw with timing and anticipation. He has the best OL in college protecting him, however, and a dominating ground game. Would he play to the same level without the surrounding cast? I will keep an eye on him this season for sure (as well as on his receiver Taylor, #4).

 

[miloofcroton]

Hornibrook caught my eye last year as someone who is inconsistent but shows the ability to throw with timing and anticipation. He has the best OL in college protecting him, however, and a dominating ground game. Would he play to the same level without the surrounding cast? I will keep an eye on him this season for sure (as well as on his receiver Taylor, #4).

At this point, anybody in a pro style offense should be on your watch list. That alone really helps with projecting how a player will translate to the NFL.

That being said, I don't know about Hornibrook. It's a lot harder for me personally to evaluate a lefty because all of the mechanics are backwards. What I can still do is look at decision making at whatnot, but I haven't done that yet.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

At this point, anybody in a pro style offense should be on your watch list. That alone really helps with projecting how a player will translate to the NFL.

That being said, I don't know about Hornibrook. It's a lot harder for me personally to evaluate a lefty because all of the mechanics are backwards. What I can still do is look at decision making at whatnot, but I haven't done that yet.

What catches my eye about Hornibrook is his ability to slide in the pocket, keep his eyes downfield, and give his receiver a chance to make a play. I like his ball placement and his willingness to check down or just get rid of the ball if the play isn't there. I question his lower body mechanics, and think he puts too much torque on his upper body to generate velocity, but he makes some good reads and isn't afraid to stand in there and take a hit. He's got some mobility, and directs traffic when he wants players to go somewhere.

He still has a lot of work to do, and sometimes he sails passes (again, because his footwork gets away from him at times), but he can make tight window throws and shows good command of the offense. He isn't a polished product by any means, but I think he would be available somewhere in the 2nd - 4th rounds and offers considerably more upside than Etling.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I question his lower body mechanics, and think he puts too much torque on his upper body to generate velocity, but he makes some good reads and isn't afraid to stand in there and take a hit.

My understanding is this is basically Garoppolo's only real weakness as a QB.

One other important question . . . is that i in Hornibrook pronounced ih or ee?

 

[WaterfallJumper]

My understanding is this is basically Garoppolo's only real weakness as a QB.

One other important question . . . is that i in Hornibrook pronounced ih or ee?

ee

 

[captain stone]

What catches my eye about Hornibrook is his ability to slide in the pocket, keep his eyes downfield, and give his receiver a chance to make a play. I like his ball placement and his willingness to check down or just get rid of the ball if the play isn't there. I question his lower body mechanics, and think he puts too much torque on his upper body to generate velocity, but he makes some good reads and isn't afraid to stand in there and take a hit. He's got some mobility, and directs traffic when he wants players to go somewhere.

He still has a lot of work to do, and sometimes he sails passes (again, because his footwork gets away from him at times), but he can make tight window throws and shows good command of the offense. He isn't a polished product by any means, but I think he would be available somewhere in the 2nd - 4th rounds and offers considerably more upside than Etling.

His accuracy on the crossing patterns is impressive; his accuracy on deeper patterns - posts, corners - isn't as impressive. His footwork is choppy when forced from his spot. Sometimes a mere flick of the wrist is enough to produce juice on his throws; other times he winds up like Russell Wilson to produce that juice. Maybe it's a Wisconsin thing?

 

[miloofcroton]

I just wanted to share a great quote and reminder about what we're really looking for here.

“I don’t know if I’ve ever met anyone who reads coverages as quickly and correctly,” says Weis, who still texts with Brady weekly. “[When I was there] you could count on one hand the times he saw something incorrectly. He’d come over to the sideline, and I’d say, ‘They were in quarters coverage.’ And he’d say, ‘But they were moving to [cover] five.’ You’d go back the next day, watch the film, and you could see what he saw.”

In Brady’s third game as a starter, at home against the Chargers in 2001, New England game-planned for an audible against a blitz that San Diego liked to use: two rushers coming from the weak side. The Patriots thought they had a great answer, but the Chargers still hadn’t called the blitz as the game went into overtime. Then, on New England’s first play of the extra period, San Diego dialed up the blitz. “Oh, s---, here it is,” Weis remembers saying to himself on the sideline. “There isn’t a chance in hell the kid is going to see this.”

But Brady spotted it: He checked off and threw deep to David Patten, drawing a 37-yard pass-interference penalty that put the Pats on the Chargers’ 40-yard line and set up the winning field goal. In the locker room after the game, coaches marveled at Brady’s quick thinking. Weis passed on his feelings about the young QB to his wife later that night.

“He said, ‘I think this kid is going to be one of the greatest ever,’ ” recalls Maura Weis, just in from practicing her dressage in the backyard. “I asked ‘Like Joe Montana?’ ” referring to her husband's former Notre Dame classmate.

From this article: Tom Brady, Patriots' offense built to adapt

 

[Ochmed Jones]

After the games this weekend, I have removed the Clemson qb from my draft board.

I have also move lock way down on my draft board because he holds the ball way too long and still makes bad decisions.

My new top three are

1.) Hebert
2.) Finley
3.) Stidham.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

The kid from from auburn looked pretty terrible against LSU. Based on his performance, I have dropped him on my qb draft board.

My new top three:

1.) Hebert
2.) Findlay
3.) Grier

 

[Kontradiction]

The kid from from auburn looked pretty terrible against LSU. Based on his performance, I have dropped him on my qb draft board.

My new top three:

1.) Hebert
2.) Findlay
3.) Grier

Stidham panics when pressured. His eyes drop and he tends to force things. Grier would be at the absolute top of my board. You could tell he was going to be a good one when he was at Florida even though he had to suffer McElwain and his overly simplistic offense. He’s really come into his own.

 

[miloofcroton]

Justin Herbert looked good this weekend. Everyone will compare him to Josh Allen, but Patrick Mahomes is another guy you might compare him to, to some degree. Having a mobile guy with tons of arm talent lets shotgun offenses be a little more diverse in their play selection. Does it make it harder to find a guy who's mobile *and* a dominant passer down the field? Sure, but it's a 1/1,000,000 shot that you get the next Brady anyway.

When I look at a guy like Ryan Finley and project him to the NFL, I'm thinking about what I'd have to do to protect him and how he'd have to have his feet set before throwing. You want to mix in plenty of under center plays with a guy like that, to take pressure off of those needs. In contrast, take a Herbert. You can roll him out, let him throw off schedule, and he can hit these easy throws that frequently go for major yardage because the coverage broke down. Mahomes and Allen did it today. Those are big plays that you're sort of taking off the table if you want that pure pocket passer.

So much of scouting is projecting a player *to a system*. Two people can have different grades on a player, and they can both be right. It's a matter of how a guy would do in the system that you want to run. With that being said, I can either make statements about players according to how they would fit the current iteration of the Patriots offense, a likely future iteration of the Patriots offense, or purely my version of how I think things should be ran.

For the former options, Ryan Finley is probably the best sure bet. Lewerke is the high ceiling guy, although I don't know exactly if he's the next Aaron Rodgers or Jake Locker. It's somewhere in the middle probably, but I'm high on him.

For the latter options, I have to give serious considerations to guys like Herbert. Lewerke, coincidentally, would also project very well to this type of offense. Tagovailoa for Alabama wouldn't be eligible this year, but he'd be a good fit too. Perhaps McSorley too. Key point: I'm not just saying 'get a mobile guy' if you want to run this spread offense. I'm saying get a mobile gunslinger. You need a guy that can really push the ball downfield and do so off schedule. It's harder to find perfection, but you don't need necessarily need that either.

Corollary: if you take a mobile QB who *doesn't* push the ball downfield, you will get utterly destroyed by a good defense. You can swarm him, make him scramble, and take very little risk in the process. This is why guys like Tyrod Taylor are atrocious QBs, even if their numbers don't always show it. Mobility is nothing without gunslinging ability. It's actually a negative. Alex Smith and Marcus Mariota will never live up to their elite draft status because their mobility ultimately hurt them in the NFL. They couldn't do much outside the pocket because they couldn't really hurt the defense on the run the way a Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers can. However, they're both smart guys with everything else going for them. When Alex Smith was asked to do less in the under center WCO offense, he thrived. He wasn't allowed to use his mobility in the way that a spread offense would let him.