Pro Football Reference on Pats Record

[WinstonSmith]

I’m a fan of NFL reference. The layout is a bit clunky but they have a lot of good stats and the blog is usually quite good. They have a decent Pats article, which contrasts the Pat’s 6-1 record to their relatively high negative total yardage margin and conclude that the Pats are somewhat “lucky” to be 6 -1 and that most likely they will fall back to the pack as the season unfolds.

PI Finds: Not Your Typical 6-1 Pats Pro-football-reference.com blog Blog Archive

The total yardage margin has a strong correlation to win totals especially when coupled with strength of schedule. If I was just looking at the numbers without watching the games I would agree with their conclusion.

I think the Pats, though, are different than the other “similar” teams that ultimately failed. The Pats had a couple of strange games that helped skew their net yards: Cincinnati - Pats built a large early lead and then played not to lose. Miami - Special team awesomeness and defensive scores limited the Pats’ offensive total yards while positively impacting Miami’s offensive yardage. Secondly - I think this Patriots team is much better at “situational” football than most teams, although beyond wins and losses this is hard to quantify. Lastly, the Pats are still improving. Most teams are close to being fully formed after the first seven games, while the Pats with the high percentage of youngsters, the Moss/Branch switcheroo, and the addition of Mankins are still improving as a team on both sides of the ball. I don’t know if they will win the Super Bowl but I’m relatively certain that they will be better than 10 and 6.

 

[patsfan13]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

The youth of the D also skew the numbers the D at the end of this year will be nothing like the D at the beginning of the season. THe season will be determined in the next few games we have back to back games against the Steelers and Colts. How we do in those games (and take care of business against the Browns and Lions) will determine how much of a contender we will be. win those and the odds of the AFC championship going through Foxboro are pretty good.

 

[Satchboogie3]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

While total yardage does play a role in the outcomes of games and likeliness of team records, there are a LOT of other factors that play an even bigger roll, such as Redzone offense/defense, turnovers, 3rd down offense/defense (which is improving every week), special teams play, smart situational plays/calls, etc.

So no, I don't believe that look soley at one small factor indicates that we are "lucky" or anything, it just means there's a good chance that we are doing other things really well.

 

[upstater1]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

The Patriots have a history of winning on the scoreboard while giving up lots of yards. Why didn't they consider that?

 

[JustEndTheSeason]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

I don't trust any of these reference things. Accuscore, for example, is no better at predicting games than any human. It pretty much has the same prediction percentage.

"Stats are for losers... final scores are for winners."

-Bill Belichick

 

[Brettlax3434]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

"stats are for losers... Final scores are for winners."

-bill belichick

that just happened! That just happened!

 

[patsfan13]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

BTW the turnover differential is the real predictor of wins and losses.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

Didn't the Saints win in similiar fashion last year. Yes, their offense was far better than this year's Pats, but their defense was nothing special and just created a lot of turnovers.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

That assumes they'll keep playing like they did at the beginning of the year, they're clearly getting better and the numbers may actually go the other way, hopefully the W's do too.

 

[PYPER]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

It's interesting that besides 2000 and this unfinished season, the other three years that the Patriots had negative yardage differentials through 7 games was 2001, 2003, and 2004.

 

[ALP]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

It's interesting that besides 2000 and this unfinished season, the other three years that the Patriots had negative yardage differentials through 7 games was 2001, 2003, and 2004.

if that is so....

im liking this correlation :rocker:

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

It's interesting that besides 2000 and this unfinished season, the other three years that the Patriots had negative yardage differentials through 7 games was 2001, 2003, and 2004.

Really? '04? I thought we won until Halloween that year, so we must have been winning in a similar fashion. That's pretty cool.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

One thing the Pats have lost is one of the better deep threats in the league. We have a lot of discussion here about how Randy opened up the middle for Wes, how Wes hasn't been the same since the injury, blah blah blah... but one thing I've seen from the Pats lately is the tendency to reserve the long ball a lot more, to increase (and to be able to trust) the running game for 3rd and short and goal line yardage, to use the short passing game as a complement to the run (though it does not have to be a substitute,) and -- this is different from 2001-2004 -- to get the TEs into the game in a big way.

In a word, this year's model has been in flux since day 1, and got a big jolt in the middle of the season w/the Randy situation. But at least we're free from the "to bomb or not to bomb" question. We've got young guys like Tate that could be something special, and we've got Deion back, at his prime good for 10 TDs in a year, about what we got out of Randy in a bad year.

2010 Randy, sans distractions, might be the same guy as 2009 Randy, which ain't 2007 Randy by a long shot. While we're all wrapped up in the value of the reality of Moss or the value of the threat of Moss, the Pats have gone their merry way, toughening up and finding ways to win. It's a way more balanced attack, and they know they're in every game, but they know they need to strap it on for every game -- no bolt from the blue that changes everything, in all likelihood (well, except the turnovers and special teams LOL)

It looks to me like BB's best shot in many instances USED to be one guy. Now his best tool is the diversity of guys that can hurt you, which is what he always won with in the past. It's all dependent on Brady, still, that smart guy that consistently makes the right throw and (for the most part) minimizes stupid risks - the anti-Favre.

He's proved he can put up gaudy numbers with Moss 07 on board, so that distraction's gone if it was ever really there. All that remains is the next ring. And Gisele, of course

Yards differential might be an okay measure, but the Pats certainly never led the league in that stat in the SB years. Talk to me about points, not yards, unless the Pats start playing in a fantasy football format.

PFnV

 

[Ring 6]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

The problem with these type of analyses is that they ignore context.
The Patriots yardage stats are what they are in part due to:
-Playing prevent defense (and offense) in about half their games
-Special teams and defensive scores reducing the number of offensive possessions and increasing the number of defensive possessions
-The score of the game dictating strategy
-The need, based upon score and time, to apply any risk in order to gain yards, vs the opponents apply extra risk in desperation

Perdicting w/l based on yardage assumes that you normalize all those things, and expect the yardage results to be the same.
I would agree that if the Patriots play a close game for 4 full quarters, get no turnovers and have a big yardage disadvantage they would not be a 6-1 type team. I disagree that if you put them in that situation the yardage stats would remain the same.

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

It's interesting that besides 2000 and this unfinished season, the other three years that the Patriots had negative yardage differentials through 7 games was 2001, 2003, and 2004.

Everyone knows 2000 doesn't count!

However, I would say that our point differential is more significant than yardage. I believe right now we're 2nd in net points? Points win games, not yards!

 

[HeadHunter]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

This is why I think stats lie. The more I watch this years team, the more I notice they are reallly holding true to the bend but dont break defense. Teams are racking up yardage on them but they make critical stops for the most part.

I dont think they are lucky to be 6-1, they are 6-1 because of playing smart football and letting the other team make mistakes and capitalizing.

 

[folamzz]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

My only concern with this team is the offense. I don't think they have the ability to put up 30 points on any given day. Since, moss left we have needed multiple turnovers to put up about 23 points a game. That doesn't get me excited long term.

 

[sbpatfan]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

My only concern with this team is the offense. I don't think they have the ability to put up 30 points on any given day. Since, moss left we have needed multiple turnovers to put up about 23 points a game. That doesn't get me excited long term.

With Moss
Bengals: 24 from offense
Jets: 14 from offense
Buffalo: 38 from offense
Miami: 20 from offense
AVG: 24 PPG from offense

Without Moss
Ravens: 23 from offense
Chargers: 23 from offense
Vikings: 28 from offense
AVG: 24.7 PPG

The Patriots have averaged around 24 PPG with and without Moss. Statistically, the offensive production hasn't really changed.

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

My only concern with this team is the offense. I don't think they have the ability to put up 30 points on any given day. Since, moss left we have needed multiple turnovers to put up about 23 points a game. That doesn't get me excited long term.

We only had 1 turnover last week and we scored 28 points.
We also have not allowed more than 20 points to be scored on us since week 3.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Re: NFL Refernce on Pats Record

Really? '04? I thought we won until Halloween that year, so we must have been winning in a similar fashion. That's pretty cool.

2004 season
game......opponent.......Pats yardage..........opp..yardage result
#1 ......INDY...................417......................458..........W
#2.........Ariz....................391......................210...........W
#3........Buff.....................397.....................385............W
#4.......Mia........................211....................324..........W
#5 ......Sea.......................363......................268.........W
#6 ....NYJ........................276.......................417.........W
#7.....Pitt..........................276.......................417..........L
Total yardage..............2354......................2513.........6-1

In the Miami game, some guy named Welker kicked a field goal for them...