WinstonSmith
2nd Team Getting Their First Start
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I’m a fan of NFL reference. The layout is a bit clunky but they have a lot of good stats and the blog is usually quite good. They have a decent Pats article, which contrasts the Pat’s 6-1 record to their relatively high negative total yardage margin and conclude that the Pats are somewhat “lucky” to be 6 -1 and that most likely they will fall back to the pack as the season unfolds.
PI Finds: Not Your Typical 6-1 Pats Pro-football-reference.com blog Blog Archive
The total yardage margin has a strong correlation to win totals especially when coupled with strength of schedule. If I was just looking at the numbers without watching the games I would agree with their conclusion.
I think the Pats, though, are different than the other “similar” teams that ultimately failed. The Pats had a couple of strange games that helped skew their net yards: Cincinnati - Pats built a large early lead and then played not to lose. Miami - Special team awesomeness and defensive scores limited the Pats’ offensive total yards while positively impacting Miami’s offensive yardage. Secondly - I think this Patriots team is much better at “situational” football than most teams, although beyond wins and losses this is hard to quantify. Lastly, the Pats are still improving. Most teams are close to being fully formed after the first seven games, while the Pats with the high percentage of youngsters, the Moss/Branch switcheroo, and the addition of Mankins are still improving as a team on both sides of the ball. I don’t know if they will win the Super Bowl but I’m relatively certain that they will be better than 10 and 6.
PI Finds: Not Your Typical 6-1 Pats Pro-football-reference.com blog Blog Archive
The total yardage margin has a strong correlation to win totals especially when coupled with strength of schedule. If I was just looking at the numbers without watching the games I would agree with their conclusion.
I think the Pats, though, are different than the other “similar” teams that ultimately failed. The Pats had a couple of strange games that helped skew their net yards: Cincinnati - Pats built a large early lead and then played not to lose. Miami - Special team awesomeness and defensive scores limited the Pats’ offensive total yards while positively impacting Miami’s offensive yardage. Secondly - I think this Patriots team is much better at “situational” football than most teams, although beyond wins and losses this is hard to quantify. Lastly, the Pats are still improving. Most teams are close to being fully formed after the first seven games, while the Pats with the high percentage of youngsters, the Moss/Branch switcheroo, and the addition of Mankins are still improving as a team on both sides of the ball. I don’t know if they will win the Super Bowl but I’m relatively certain that they will be better than 10 and 6.
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