Pre Super Bowl Thread- On to the Rams

[supafly]

Analytical look at the game from NumberFire, which is porn for the stat geeks.

Super Bowl LIII Preview: An Analytical Guide to Sunday's Big Game

 

[supafly]

Also, according to the Ringer podcast, bets on the Pats are still coming in at anywhere between 75-90 percent (apparently, they interviewed someone in the industry).

Vegas would take a beating with a NE victory. They’ve lost money on only 2 of the previous 52 Super Bowls.

 

[luuked]

Also, according to the Ringer podcast, bets on the Pats are still coming in at anywhere between 75-90 percent (apparently, they interviewed someone in the industry).

Vegas would take a beating with a NE victory. They’ve lost money on only 2 of the previous 52 Super Bowls.

I don't get why they don't move the line further to entice people taking the Rams/points. It makes no sense to me unless they are extremely sure that the Rams will cover/win outright.

 

[Observer]

Uh-oh! here comes Sleep-Gate

How the hell do you simulate sleep with a tank? I don’t get it.

 

[Wheelman]

Some distraction for CJ Anderson ... nice.

LA Rams' CJ Anderson sexted woman before telling her 'I don't do fat girls' | Daily Mail Online

Putting the obvious takes aside, a few observations from me:

...at the same time we will not dignify someone who is looking for five minutes of fame to interfere with the preparations for Sunday.

His agent can go drop dead. *******!

It was all very interesting good stuff, it's a great foundation so it kind of surprised me him not being that nice of a guy in the end

This **** needs to stop. People need to open their eyes. Whatever a person may do in public, no matter what sort of contributions they may make to a "noble" cause, it tells you absolutely nothing about the type of person they really are!

I'm definitely gonna be watching the Super Bowl and I hate the Patriots but I'm gonna be rooting for them.

Screw this *****! I'm on Team CJ now!

Ok I'm kidding, sort of, **** CJ Anderson but **** that patriot hater too!

 

[supafly]

I don't get why they don't move the line further to entice people taking the Rams/points. It makes no sense to me unless they are extremely sure that the Rams will cover/win outright.

I hate to sound negative, but I’m not gonna lie. It’s effing freaking me out. I thought about it earlier in the week and had assumed that the action wasn’t going to be as one-sided for the reason that you mentioned, but hearing that today made me nervous again.

 

[blackglass3]

Yesterday afternoon on Moving The Chains, Pat Kerwin said 55% of the bets coming in were on the Rams at +2.5. No I do not have a source, he said it around 4:15 EST. I have no idea how accurate what he said is and haven't followed the line for the game since I don't bet on Pats games.

Could be bad info, could be accurate. But hopefully its true so it balances out everything.

 

[Tb12goesinya]

I hate to sound negative, but I’m not gonna lie. It’s effing freaking me out. I thought about it earlier in the week and had assumed that the action wasn’t going to be as one-sided for the reason that you mentioned, but hearing that today made me nervous again.

I don't like it either. But hopefully after NFCCG, where 4 refs were from Cali including the guy who didn't throw flag, there will be no rif raf of any kind. I do not necessarily believe in collusion, but I typically like when Vegas is rooting for the Pats.

 

[Raymond]

I thought they kept the second plane down in Quonset. Hmm. Wrong as usual!

You are probably right. I'd never seen it there until Tuesday this week. Parked near the UPS,Fedex guys. I drive past there daily.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Who covers Gurley out of the backfield on those wheel routes. If he is healthy the Pats don't have an answer for him. Or do they? This a terrible match-up.

 

[SBLIII]

Also, according to the Ringer podcast, bets on the Pats are still coming in at anywhere between 75-90 percent (apparently, they interviewed someone in the industry).

Vegas would take a beating with a NE victory. They’ve lost money on only 2 of the previous 52 Super Bowls.

I've seen a tweet from ESPN Fawkes that William Hill for example has 51% Rams money right now.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Also, according to the Ringer podcast, bets on the Pats are still coming in at anywhere between 75-90 percent (apparently, they interviewed someone in the industry).

Vegas would take a beating with a NE victory. They’ve lost money on only 2 of the previous 52 Super Bowls.

If the money is too heavy on one side, wouldn't they just move the line to even it out?

 

[SBLIII]

If the money is too heavy on one side, wouldn't they just move the line to even it out?

my guess is they are expecting heavy Rams money anyway this weekend where like 90% of the money will come in. One casino already prepared themselves for that and moved their line already to 2.

 

[supafly]

If the money is too heavy on one side, wouldn't they just move the line to even it out?

Apparently, there are many situations where Vegas gambles too, and it is rare for money to be even-sided. Almost every game is going to have public favorites, whether that’s on the spread, the money line, or both.

 

[supafly]

I've seen a tweet from ESPN Fawkes that William Hill for example has 51% Rams money right now.

Not sure if they were discussing the money line or the spread. When I have more time, I’ll try and find a link to all of the major books that shows a percentage for both, if someone doesn’t beat me to it.

 

[The Brandon Five]

my guess is they are expecting heavy Rams money anyway this weekend where like 90% of the money will come in. One casino already prepared themselves for that and moved their line already to 2.

A half point in the other direction would bring in less money for the Rams not more, no? The heavier the Pats are favored the more margin for the Rams. I am confused.

 

[SBLIII]

A half point in the other direction would bring in less money for the Rams not more, no? The heavier the Pats are favored the more margin for the Rams. I am confused.

That what was said:

As for the rest of Las Vegas, not a lot has changed with the exception of Wynn Resortsdropping down to Patriots -2 Thursday morning.

"We're starting to see significant play on the Rams and we're just positioning ourselves for the weekend," said Wynn sports book director Doug Castaneda who initially opened the Rams -1.

Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds

 

[The Brandon Five]

That what was said:

As for the rest of Las Vegas, not a lot has changed with the exception of Wynn Resortsdropping down to Patriots -2 Thursday morning.

"We're starting to see significant play on the Rams and we're just positioning ourselves for the weekend," said Wynn sports book director Doug Castaneda who initially opened the Rams -1.

Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds

Ok, money moving the line that way makes sense. I was talking about the need to move the line further towards the Pats to attract that money. If it was really 70-90% Pats no way they leave the line (unless they are betting the house on the Rams, as was discussed above).

Any given SB.

 

[SBLIII]

Not sure if they were discussing the money line or the spread. When I have more time, I’ll try and find a link to all of the major books that shows a percentage for both, if someone doesn’t beat me to it.

spread 51% Patriots. But obviously they were one of the 2 books at -3 so that changes things.



But anyway I think this will all even out until kickoff. The huge bets are just coming in right now. Highest bet before was 35k. Now today there was the first 2million bet. If it was on the Rams things will change quickly...

 

[Redman443]

One of the biggest surprises to me imo. Warner picked the patriots to win over his old team.