This is my prediction for this game.
I think, like often happens in the playoffs, it’s going to go very differently than people expect.
The key to the game is the Patriots greatest strength, Drake Maye vs the Texans greatest strength, their defense. The Patriots
are not going to fear the defense, get conservative and play small ball (at least unless they get a comfortable lead). They will put the game on Drake Mayes shoulders. And will win because of it.
2 things that Maye has excelled at this year are 3rd and long and his play when pressured. Both are elite.
Because we are so good on 3rd and long, we will not fear allowing a sack. But where we will really thrive is when Houston gets pressure that Maye escapes. This extends the play and against Houston heavy zone scheme will create big plays by giving receivers time to come open. I expect we will call more short to deep reads to get the ball out when the quick hit is there but Maye will not settle for sort of open and if the first read isn’t there will be patient and buy time with his feet if necessary. I don’t expect the running game to be great but think they will pop a 20+ or 2. I think Maye and the offense are going to silence all the talk about the 85 Bears, I mean 25 Texans defense, and hang 30 or more on them.
Similarly I think Houston’s offense will do better against the Patriot defense than expected. I think our run D with everyone back will be excellent again (which will be very important next week, a real key to the AFCCG) but when I watch Houston’s offense play I see inconsistency but talent and I see a lot of big plays coming on the same type of plays and routes we allow them on. They will make plays and put together some drives but we will stone them on others. I hope they do exactly what I don’t want us to do and try to play small ball, stay on schedule and play for 3rd and short conversions. I don’t see them sustaining drives that way. They are 23rd in 3rd down conversions on offense. If they aren’t getting chunk plays and need to be converting 3rd downs, they will struggle.
Of course turnovers and big special teams plays change games. Both teams have been good protecting the football, and the special teams seem pretty equal, until one makes a game changing play.
Prediction Patriots 34 Texans 21
