Patriots Pregame Thread Pre-Game - Divisional Round Texans at Patriots

[Rob0729]

I am on the fence on the snow. On one hand, I think it would definitely slow down Houston's defense. On the other hand, Maye is pretty untested in the snow and I don't really know how he'll perform. He had a bit of a hard time with some rain against Tampa earlier this year (even though they did ultimately win pretty handily). I'd also like for Gonzo, Davis and Jones to be able to clamp down on their depleted receiving corps, and a slick field may let those guys get open. So there's some risk there.

Yeah, I'd worry about a wet snow with Drake. A lighter snow that is accumulating would benefit the Pats. As long as the ball stays relatively dry, snow should be an advantage to the Pats.

I would like to see Drake adopting the use of gloves in poor weather games. Or at least trying them. But I don't know if the playoffs is the place to do that unless he really struggles early in the game.

Brady was slow to adopt using gloves in poor weather, but ultimately started to use them. Although he only used it on his left, non-throwing hand to better grip the ball. But occasionally, he would wear a glove on both hands.

 

[Uptown]

In the last 3 Texans playoff wins, Stroud has 5 TDs & 4 turnovers. In that same span, the Texans’ defense has scored 5 TDs, given up only 32 points & has scored 32 points.

 

[NFL Mystique]

Is the weather calling for snow tomorrow? If so, that should make this a run first game for the Patriots. Trying to throw a ball that is wet is asking for disaster against this Texans defense. Maye is not use to it & throwing could take an extra second or so.

 

[NFL Mystique]

In the last 3 Texans playoff wins, Stroud has 5 TDs & 4 turnovers. In that same span, the Texans’ defense has 5 TDs, given up only 32 points & has scored 32 points.

They are not a playoff team with a middle of the road defense imo.

Stroud should also thank his defense for that 60 million/year deal he gets this offseason.

 

[Ring 6]

This is my prediction for this game.

I think, like often happens in the playoffs, it’s going to go very differently than people expect.
The key to the game is the Patriots greatest strength, Drake Maye vs the Texans greatest strength, their defense. The Patriots
are not going to fear the defense, get conservative and play small ball (at least unless they get a comfortable lead). They will put the game on Drake Mayes shoulders. And will win because of it.

2 things that Maye has excelled at this year are 3rd and long and his play when pressured. Both are elite.
Because we are so good on 3rd and long, we will not fear allowing a sack. But where we will really thrive is when Houston gets pressure that Maye escapes. This extends the play and against Houston heavy zone scheme will create big plays by giving receivers time to come open. I expect we will call more short to deep reads to get the ball out when the quick hit is there but Maye will not settle for sort of open and if the first read isn’t there will be patient and buy time with his feet if necessary. I don’t expect the running game to be great but think they will pop a 20+ or 2. I think Maye and the offense are going to silence all the talk about the 85 Bears, I mean 25 Texans defense, and hang 30 or more on them.

Similarly I think Houston’s offense will do better against the Patriot defense than expected. I think our run D with everyone back will be excellent again (which will be very important next week, a real key to the AFCCG) but when I watch Houston’s offense play I see inconsistency but talent and I see a lot of big plays coming on the same type of plays and routes we allow them on. They will make plays and put together some drives but we will stone them on others. I hope they do exactly what I don’t want us to do and try to play small ball, stay on schedule and play for 3rd and short conversions. I don’t see them sustaining drives that way. They are 23rd in 3rd down conversions on offense. If they aren’t getting chunk plays and need to be converting 3rd downs, they will struggle.

Of course turnovers and big special teams plays change games. Both teams have been good protecting the football, and the special teams seem pretty equal, until one makes a game changing play.

Prediction Patriots 34 Texans 21

 

[Ring 6]

In the last 3 Texans playoff wins, Stroud has 5 TDs & 4 turnovers. In that same span, the Texans’ defense has scored 5 TDs, given up only 32 points & has scored 32 points.

This is interesting.
2023 they spanked the lowly Browns 45-14 in the first round at home in the done then got blown out by the Ravens 34-10 on the road, 23 degree temp at kickoff.

2024 the whooped the Chargers 32-12 at home in the dome as Herbert choked. Then they lost by 2 scores 23-14 to the Chiefs on the road at 27 degree temp.

I see a trend.


* I realize their stadium is retractable but it was closed for those games

 

[Uptown]

This will be an integral component of the game. We must defend the middle of the field, put pressure on Stroud & make him throw outside the numbers to the less experienced receivers.

 

[sb1]

Feels like the analysts are overrating the Texans defense but underrating their offense. I’m glad we’re healthier on defense that was critical…but it’s still gonna be the toughest game of the season. If they advance next week will be even tougher.

 

[upstater1]

This will be an integral component of the game. We must defend the middle of the field, put pressure on Stroud & make him throw outside the numbers to the less experienced receivers.

I have to say, middle of the field is where the Patriots passing defense is weakest, but there's also more opportunity for interceptions there.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

And Stroud played at OSU. So he is used to playing in snow.

This point is used in the media about Big10 players all the time and it drives my crazy.
College season ends by Nov.
Snow in Big10 country before Dec is possible, but very rare.
Is it possible Stroud played in a snow game, sure, but it's unlikely he played in many if any.
It's a lazy narrative used by the media, and it's inaccurate.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

I am on the fence on the snow. On one hand, I think it would definitely slow down Houston's defense. On the other hand, Maye is pretty untested in the snow and I don't really know how he'll perform. He had a bit of a hard time with some rain against Tampa earlier this year (even though they did ultimately win pretty handily). I'd also like for Gonzo, Davis and Jones to be able to clamp down on their depleted receiving corps, and a slick field may let those guys get open. So there's some risk there.

It all depends.
Playing in the driving rain (like that first series in TB) with a wet football is not a good recipe.
Playing in snow isn't near as tough, as long as it's not a wet snow that gets the ball wet.
It's all about how dry the ball is.
He'd be fine in a typical snow game, it's only the wet type of snow that could be a concern.

 

[Uptown]

 

[Ross12]

If I’m JMD, I’m calling lots of play action, bootlegs, rollouts, options, and designed QB runs to get Maye running the ball out in space. Stretch the defensive line horizontally.

I might also sprinkle in some weird-as-**** plays because Houston is a “we do what we do” defense, and they may not be prepared to adjust to a bizarre look on the fly. We know Josh has some calls in his back pocket that are not something you would see every day.

 

[Sect140]

Oh it's gonna be loud all right.

This is the thing. It's like the Indy playoff games in '03-04 or those cold Baltimore games years later, where the opponent is a real threat to our season, yet they might be vulnerable too.

This crowd knows the Pats have the juice to prevail, they just need a little help to unlock the juju and affect the outcome, push things over the edge. They are participants not spectators. Add in 7 years of frustration. The Texans are gonna think they landed on another planet.

Playoff games we get to our seats and tell everyone around us there will be no sitting today.

 

[Uptown]

 

[Uptown]

Most intricate scouting report I’ve come across thus far…





Houston allows just 17.4 points per game, but 20 points is the magic number in this game.
• Texans are 16-0 when scoring 20 or more points. I see this as a defensive stat for them; the Patriots score more than 20, and our chances are good.

 

[n1997y]

Is it all of the above or can we get by with at least two of the four?

I’ve got three of the four.

Does that mean I’m an over achiever?

 

[n1997y]

The Refs down in that other place are really something. A flag on every single play.

Just like here.

 

[Real fan 02]

Apparently the Pats will still be listing Gonzo as questionable, as it sounds like he still hasn’t fully cleared the protocol.

Patriots to list Christian Gonzalez, Harold Landry as questionable for Sunday

Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez returned to full practice participation on Thursday, but he hasn't been written into the lineup for Sunday's game against the Texans just yet.

www.nbcsports.com

Patriots injury report: Christian Gonzalez clears concussion protocol

Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez has officially cleared concussion protocol ahead of Sunday's playoff game against the Texans.

patriotswire.usatoday.com

 

[Real fan 02]

I’ve got three of the four.

Does that mean I’m an over achiever?

Really like that Tonga will be active guys an important part of the defensive line and at FB.. also.. the Texans D rightly so has been praised all week.. however I believe this is fueling our defense.. we are a top 10 unit as well and seems as if they are being disrespected.