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Sadly I agree with this, and let me add that while a 2% lethality rate seems mild, using back of the envelope math, and considering that each team is 80 players plus dozens of support staff, coaches, etc. that 2% death rate suggests 1-2 deaths PER TEAM would be the statistical average outcome.
Incredible post.No, I mean everyone out there that has to go out to work in this but is taking every precaution they can not to catch or spread the virus. I’m in my late 50s and diabetic. When this all started, a growth in my lung was being tested for cancer. Thank God the biopsy was negative, but the biopsy showed the growth to be inflammation tissue, so it’s logical to believe the other nodules present in both of my lungs are inflamed tissue as well. In short, it would probably not go well for me if I caught a bad dose of the virus.
But, I have to venture out to work like millions of others who are of an age or health condition that makes it a dangerous proposition. I don’t begrudge any player that opted out. I don’t begrudge people who can afford to bunker down and have supplies delivered to their front door.
But, I’m not one of them nor is it an option for most of us. I’m sure it’s not an option for many players, coaches or staff employed by NFL teams. This is not a matter of greed as too many believe but of survival.
This nation has been so affluent for so long that there is a class of people who are so far removed from the nitty gritty of life that they don’t even know it exists. Congratulations to them, but for the rest of us money doesn’t magically show up in our bank accounts and food doesn’t just appear on our tables. Work is not life, but it is a livelihood.
Your math assumes that every single person gets it.
Only about 1 in 2,200 people overall die so far (149,000 deaths in a population of 330,000,000, as of 07/29/2020) or roughly 0.04%. So statistically I think that would be one person in the entire league, assuming about 2,500 players total.
And that wouldn't be adjusting for how few of them are over 70, or even 40, or 30. If we adjust for age, I'd put deaths at zero for the league.
(My napkin math might be flawed)
I think his point is that he is factoring in “not everyone gets it” as he stated.It's very flawed. You have to divide by how many people have caught it, not by US population. You can't die from it if you haven't caught it.
In any case, the CDC's current estimate of "people dead from it" divided by "everyone who caught it, even totally asymptomatic people" is 0.65%
What I don’t get is why can’t they just distance those in this demographic? Coaches have coached from up in the booth many times before.Assume 2% lethality # is real. for conversation sake. That 2% is decidedly NOT uniformly distributed. It is greatly skewed towards the 70+ year old end. Greatly. This is one good thing about this virus. Lethality risk for younger age groups many times less. Also, treatment knowhow has increased.
And NOW we know why old coot Dante retired! Prescient.
It's very flawed. You have to divide by how many people have caught it, not by US population. You can't die from it if you haven't caught it.
In any case, the CDC's current estimate of "people dead from it" divided by "everyone who caught it, even totally asymptomatic people" is 0.65%