Per 98.5: Pats won't renew Brandon Lloyd's deal

[borg]

Considering the way the market is shaping up, the Pats could be paying $6 million a year for a downgrade from Lloyd.

At this point, the only reason it makes sense to cut Lloyd is if he truly is a problem off the field. You aren't likely to upgrade his on the field production in free agency as a #2 WR with the current market unless you gamble on an Austin Collie to get healthy by the start of the season or a David Nelson to get healthy and be a sleeper who is a star who was suppressed by a mediocre QB.

They could draft a WR that A) doesn't collapse to the turf before contact B) can run patterns that require safety awareness

 

[Clonamery]

They could draft a WR that A) doesn't collapse to the turf before contact B) can run patterns that require safety awareness

So Edelman and a rookie.

 

[Sicilian]

They could draft a WR that A) doesn't collapse to the turf before contact B) can run patterns that require safety awareness

And why is that player replacing Lloyd? Why isn't that player replacing Branch?

 

[Patsrock]

So much for him never getting $6 million a year. He might have gotten $6.5-7 million if he hit the open market.

People need to be prepared that if the Pats cut Lloyd and try to find his replacement in free agency that it is going to cost $5-7 million a year in contract unless the Pats shop in the bargain bin.

Don't worry we all told by people here you can get Lloyd replacement for fraction of the cost. Told we we were crazy if we thought Hartline was going to get a deal worth 6m a yr.

 

[Nehalem]

So Edelman and a rookie.

Unfortunately Edelman just waits to collapse after contact

Otherwise I like him as a Lloyd replacement. And wasn't he even taking snaps away from Lloyd last season before getting hurt?

 

[Deus Irae]

Don't worry we all told by people here you can get Lloyd replacement for fraction of the cost. Told we we were crazy if we thought Hartline was going to get a deal worth 6m a yr.

Indeed.

"The market's flooded. There's no way that the top 4-5 wide receivers will get paid the kind of money people are saying...."

Bowe: about $11 million per
Hartline: about $6 million per

:bricks:

 

[Ring 6]

Unfortunately Edelman just waits to collapse after contact

Otherwise I like him as a Lloyd replacement. And wasn't he even taking snaps away from Lloyd last season before getting hurt?

No, he wasn't

 

[patsinthesnow]

Indeed.

"The market's flooded. There's no way that the top 4-5 wide receivers will get paid the kind of money people are saying...."

Bowe: about $11 million per
Hartline: about $6 million per

:bricks:

Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if a team gave Edelman 4-5 million due to potential or whatnot, just like Josh Morgan last year.

 

[Nunchucks]

Edelman is not an outside receiver. Patriots only have 1 outside WR on the roster and that is lloyd, the guy everybody hates because he only caught 70+ balls and had 900+ yards....he falls down after he catches the ball...boohoo, at least he catches it and doesn't get hurt.

 

[resdubwhite]

Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if a team gave Edelman 4-5 million due to potential or whatnot, just like Josh Morgan last year.

Hell I'd be shocked. But look at what the Bills did with Mark anderson.

If teams have money to spend they will try to spend it I suppose.

 

[Rob0729]

They could draft a WR that A) doesn't collapse to the turf before contact B) can run patterns that require safety awareness

And replaces Lloyd's 74 catches, 911 yards, and 4 TDs with an impressive 42 catches, 500 yards, and TDs. The amount of catches and yards don't matter with a starting #2 WR, it is how pretty he makes the play.

Please name me the free agent WR beyond Wallace and Jennings (neither are coming here to be the #2 WR after Welker) who command safety awareness. And for the draft, it is a crap shoot and the Pats have crapped out for over a decade drafting the position.

 

[BradyManny]

And replaces Lloyd's 74 catches, 911 yards, and 4 TDs with an impressive 42 catches, 500 yards, and TDs. The amount of catches and yards don't matter with a starting #2 WR, it is how pretty he makes the play.

Please name me the free agent WR beyond Wallace and Jennings (neither are coming here to be the #2 WR after Welker) who command safety awareness. And for the draft, it is a crap shoot and the Pats have crapped out for over a decade drafting the position.

I think the Pats swing and misses at the WR position have been a little overstated.

The only total failure was Chad Jackson - who had first round talent and a UDFA brain.

Bethel was not terrible ROI. He was a very productive returner for us for a couple years.

Price & Tate were not real great WR prospects in hindsight. Tate was a kick returner specialist coming off an ACL injury; Price was a small time prospect who the Pats (and I and others on the board) thought had very big potential.

It's time to invest in a Chad Jackson level prospect again. It sounds dangerous b/c he was as big a bust as they've had in the draft, but they need to pull the trigger on a guy who has that pedigree. It is the only way they will get an upgrade at the position.

It's how they got better at TE & RB. The failure of Ben Watson and Dave Thomas did not stop them from going out and getting Gronk and Hernandez. The failure of Maroney did not stop them from going out and getting Ridley & Vereen.

Due to the risk involved, I am beginning to think the best course of action is retaining Lloyd, resigning Welker & Edelman, and effectively bringing the whole gang back - but adding one piece at WR from the draft that has the chance to turn into something greater.

 

[Rob0729]

I think the Pats swing and misses at the WR position have been a little overstated.

The only total failure was Chad Jackson - who had first round talent and a UDFA brain.

Bethel was not terrible ROI. He was a very productive returner for us for a couple years.

Price & Tate were not real great WR prospects in hindsight. Tate was a kick returner specialist coming off an ACL injury; Price was a small time prospect who the Pats (and I and others on the board) thought had very big potential.

It's time to invest in a Chad Jackson level prospect again. It sounds dangerous b/c he was as big a bust as they've had in the draft, but they need to pull the trigger on a guy who has that pedigree. It is the only way they will get an upgrade at the position.

It's how they got better at TE & RB. The failure of Ben Watson and Dave Thomas did not stop them from going out and getting Gronk and Hernandez. The failure of Maroney did not stop them from going out and getting Ridley & Vereen.

Due to the risk involved, I am beginning to think the best course of action is retaining Lloyd, resigning Welker & Edelman, and effectively bringing the whole gang back - but adding one piece at WR from the draft that has the chance to turn into something greater.

Although I agree past failures do not guarantee future failures, you are may be understating how the Pats have done in the past with WRs. You are forgetting that the Pats swung and missed with Bethel Johnson too as a second rounder. Either way, WRs tend to not be immediate impact guys especially in a complicated offense like the Patriots.

I agree the best course of action is to retain what they have and possibly add a value WR for depth or draft a WR for a future replacement of Lloyd and/or Welker. The Pats need to spend the bulk of their free agency money on defense not offense.

 

[Gumby]

Although I agree past failures do not guarantee future failures, you are may be understating how the Pats have done in the past with WRs. You are forgetting that the Pats swung and missed with Bethel Johnson too as a second rounder. Either way, WRs tend to not be immediate impact guys especially in a complicated offense like the Patriots.

I agree the best course of action is to retain what they have and possibly add a value WR for depth or draft a WR for a future replacement of Lloyd and/or Welker. The Pats need to spend the bulk of their free agency money on defense not offense.

item A makes B impossible. keeping WW &BL = FA $. that and an OL will take up to half or more pf the the avail cap for FAs.

all the same - admirable goal.

 

[tonyto3690]

And replaces Lloyd's 74 catches, 911 yards, and 4 TDs with an impressive 42 catches, 500 yards, and TDs. The amount of catches and yards don't matter with a starting #2 WR, it is how pretty he makes the play.

Please name me the free agent WR beyond Wallace and Jennings (neither are coming here to be the #2 WR after Welker) who command safety awareness. And for the draft, it is a crap shoot and the Pats have crapped out for over a decade drafting the position.

I think all of the "safety awareness" is garbage, but I'd be okay with that outcome. What you forgot to include is Lloyd's production for the fifth(?) highest cap hit on our roster or similar, if albeit likely less, production out of a free agent or draft choice for a fraction of the cost.

The problem isn't with Lloyd's talent, or what he did for us last season. The problem is he is being paid as if he panned out to be that 80 catch 1200 yard 10 TD receiver we all hoped for.

I am still convinced the plan/hope was Lloyd would turn into that guy, the Patriots would let Welker walk, and they'd resign Edelman/another guy as our #2 WR and we'd build around the TEs. It turned into the complete opposite where Welker had the monster year and Lloyd didn't pan out.

I'm as big a Welker homer/fan as you'll find, but paying him a big deal for long years is the wrong thing to do. And I'm sure the Patriots really wish Lloyd had played better right now.

 

[ralmat55]

The Patriots may believe that Lloyd is nothing special and that much of his production last season came from role in the offense and not his individual talent. My opinion FWIW: if you resigned Jabar Gaffney and Dontae Stallworth to vet minimum contracts and one of them was healthy for every game, they would match Lloyd's 2013 production, at least.

Preferably, I'd like to find a receiver in the draft who can exceed that production and be skilled enough to draw enough attention from defenders that other receivers are more productive. I am tired of hearing about the Patriots' poor history drafting WRs. How effective were they at drafting TEs before 2010 and pass rushers before last year?

Finally, save the poor Tom Brady having no one to throw to nonsense. In 2006, they totally rebuilt their receiver core on the fly and made it to the AFCCG with Ben Watson as his tight end. Brady is just that good, and, if you are going to have to rebuild his receiver corp around him at some point, I'd rather do it when he's 36 years old and on top of his game rather than wait to do it when he's 38 yrs old with fading skills.

 

[Rob0729]

item A makes B impossible. keeping WW &BL = FA $. that and an OL will take up to half or more pf the the avail cap for FAs.

all the same - admirable goal.

Brandon Lloyd already counts against the cap and the Pats are $30 million under the cap. Depending on how Welker's contract would be structured, he might take $6 million or even less against the cap.

If they resign Vollmer at the $7 million a year that he is reportedly looking and/or the Pats' limit (he is supposedly looking for $7-8 million a year, but the Pats are reported to not be willing to go over $7 million a year). His cap hit this year could be about $5 million.

So say the Pats take a $11 million cap hit for both Welker and Vollmer this year, the Pats will still have about $15 million or so of cap space for the defense after you pay the rookies. That is still a lot of money to spend on defense.

 

[jmt57]

For all the angst about how much Brandon Lloyd is being paid, I found it interesting that he is only the 36th highest paid WR in the NFL, based on average pay per year.

» Over the Cap- Top NFL Contracts: Wide Receiver

 

[Rob0729]

I think all of the "safety awareness" is garbage, but I'd be okay with that outcome. What you forgot to include is Lloyd's production for the fifth(?) highest cap hit on our roster or similar, if albeit likely less, production out of a free agent or draft choice for a fraction of the cost.

The problem isn't with Lloyd's talent, or what he did for us last season. The problem is he is being paid as if he panned out to be that 80 catch 1200 yard 10 TD receiver we all hoped for.

I am still convinced the plan/hope was Lloyd would turn into that guy, the Patriots would let Welker walk, and they'd resign Edelman/another guy as our #2 WR and we'd build around the TEs. It turned into the complete opposite where Welker had the monster year and Lloyd didn't pan out.

I'm as big a Welker homer/fan as you'll find, but paying him a big deal for long years is the wrong thing to do. And I'm sure the Patriots really wish Lloyd had played better right now.

Saying Lloyd is the fifth largest cap hit is about as garbage as you say the safety awareness is (which I agree). Lloyd is only the fifth largest cap hit because Gronk's and Hernandez's contracts don't explode cap wise for another couple of years and most of the Pats' starters are still working on their rookie deals (Solder, Spikes, McCourty, Hightower, Jones, Ridley, etc.) or were signed to value deals (Ninkovitch, Gregory, etc.).

As for what Lloyd got paid for, the guy got a three year deal for $12 million with only $3 million guaranteed. Name me one WR who is capable of putting up 80 catch, 1200 yards and 10 TDs who would accept a contract so small. You can't even get a 1,200 yard, 10 TD receiver to accept a contract with only $12 million in guaranteed money nevermind as a total contract. Lloyd got borderline starter/very good back up money. A 1200 yard, 10 TD WR is going to command about $9-10 million a year if he is young and $8-9 million if he is over 30. The only reason people are talking about his money is because he is due a decent bonus and is one of the few players cutable to free up cap space. Lloyd signed for chump change.

For reference, Pierre Garcon who has never gotten 80 catches (his career high was 70), 1,200 yards (career high was 947 yards), or 10 TDs (career high was 6 TDs) got a 5 year contract for $42.5 million ($8.5 million a year) with $21.5 million in guarantees. So his guaranteed money alone is almost twice as much as Lloyd's entire contract.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

For all the angst about how much Brandon Lloyd is being paid, I found it interesting that he is only the 36th highest paid WR in the NFL, based on average pay per year.

» Over the Cap- Top NFL Contracts: Wide Receiver

The true question is: how many WRs not on rookie deals earned less and out produced him. If Lloyd is cut it's unlikely, outside of hitting a homerun in the draft, that his replacement will provide better value. This is even more true if you factor in the dead money.