Pats win total next year

[TheRainMaker]

Too early to tell.

Ask us after the draft.

 

[BobDigital]

7-9 or 6-10. We are in rebuild mode. Still a number of good players but we need to face facts.

Chung looked old last year and he is probably not going to be starter level this year. The LBs took a massive hit. Devin has been declining slowly and him and Jason will be 33 this year. Harmon gone hurts that depth. Hightower with his injury history is a massive question mark and also in the final year of his contract.

The only players on this D who I like over the next 2 years are Gilmore/Jackson/Jones/Winovich/Guy(who is in his final year) and maybe Bentley if he can produce like last year. Guy is 29 but doesn't seem to have much tread on his tires. He isn't a super star like his PFF would lead you to believe though.

And don't get me started on the issues with the offense, especially without Scar. The offense will no doubt stink and turn the ball over even if N'Keal emerges as a super star. The Defense will be worse as it ages and loses key pieces. Happens to every team. We need some new high end talent and a star QB in here and that will take a few years IF we are VEEEEERY lucky.

 

[Jimke]

Optimistically 6-10. Split with AFC East and beat Raiders, Broncos and Cards.

Pessimistic view...3-13. Look at our opponents next year.

At last, someone with a little common sense who's not been drinking coffee brandy.
This roster has been stripped bare by free agency. The re-signings of Thuney and
McCourty plus Brady's cap hit have consumed most of the salary cap money.
Good players will not be flocking to Foxboro at bargain prices to play for quarterback x.
They are already expressing their wishes to play with free agent magnet, Tom Brady.
I wish for a productive draft like the Saints had a couple of years ago that netted them
four starters including two Probowl players. Our last three drafts have been nothing special. Too many off the wall picks and players with injuries. Last year we drafted a
running back we didn't need instead of a tight end we did need.
My projection is 5-11. I rooted for the Patriots when they went 1-15 and will still cheer for them.

 

[Jimke]

At last, someone with a little common sense who's not been drinking coffee brandy.
This roster has been stripped bare by free agency. The re-signings of Thuney and
McCourty plus Brady's cap hit have consumed most of the salary cap money.
Good players will not be flocking to Foxboro at bargain prices to play for quarterback x.
They are already expressing their wishes to play with free agent magnet, Tom Brady.
I wish for a productive draft like the Saints had a couple of years ago that netted them
four starters including two Probowl players. Our last three drafts have been nothing special. Too many off the wall picks and players with injuries. Last year we drafted a
running back we didn't need instead of a tight end we did need.
My projection is 5-11. I rooted for the Patriots when they went 1-15 and will still cheer for them.

 

[Hyped]

While it's waaaayyy too early, but we need to consider the schedule:

Jets: 2-0
Bills: 1-1
Dolphins: 1-1
Chiefs: 0-1
Chargers: 1-0
Raiders: 0-1
Broncos: 1-0
Baltimore: 0-1
Texans: 0-1
Seattle: 0-1
Niners: 0-1
Cardinals: 1-0
Rams: 1-0

8-8....and I was generous in giving them a sweep of the Jets, wins over Broncos, Cardinals, Rams, and Chargers.

It would have been hard to win 11-12 games WITH Brady.

Dunno, I am torn....I think the best play is to NOT actively TANK...but at the same time...don't load up on talent...but a lot of developmental players. To get Lawrence, we have to go 3-13 at MINIMUM or hope to god that we end up at 5-11ish....and the #1 pick team already has their franchise QB....

 

[Joey007]

The 0-0 answers are annoying me. We have another 5 months before we can clearly analyze whether or not the season will go on. Why not just go into it now assuming football is going to happen?

If things look bleak come July, then so be it. I don’t want to be in that mindset right now, though. Things are bleak enough.

 

[p8ryts]

6-7 TRADE FOR TREVOR, unless Stidham turns out to be the second coming.

 

[p8ryts]

While it's waaaayyy too early, but we need to consider the schedule:

Jets: 2-0
Bills: 1-1
Dolphins: 1-1
Chiefs: 0-1
Chargers: 1-0
Raiders: 0-1
Broncos: 1-0
Baltimore: 0-1
Texans: 0-1
Seattle: 0-1
Niners: 0-1
Cardinals: 1-0
Rams: 1-0

8-8....and I was generous in giving them a sweep of the Jets, wins over Broncos, Cardinals, Rams, and Chargers.

It would have been hard to win 11-12 games WITH Brady.

Dunno, I am torn....I think the best play is to NOT actively TANK...but at the same time...don't load up on talent...but a lot of developmental players. To get Lawrence, we have to go 3-13 at MINIMUM or hope to god that we end up at 5-11ish....and the #1 pick team already has their franchise QB....

I woulldn't have gone more than 10 even with Brady.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

i think we have to look at that schedule through a whole new set of eyes. we have been spoiled for so, so many years. even the divisional opponents...we can't look at them anymore and say, "well maybe they lose one in Miami"....

it's impossible to hazard a guess at this point since the unknowns are so many. but BB is a genius...stidham seems to be impressing a lot of people...

i think i'll start with a baseline of eight wins and then adjust it up or down at the beginning of September if I have to predict anything

 

[ensoul]

Between the offense being a mess, a new QB and a brutal schedule I am going with 4-5 wins.

Jets: 1-1
Bills: 0-2
Dolphins:1-1
Chiefs: loss
Chargers: win
Raiders: loss
Broncos: loss
Baltimore: loss
Texans: loss
Seattle: loss
Niners: loss
Cardinals:win
Rams: loss

 

[NormZauchin]

I'm wondering if opposing teams will still look at their game with the Patriots as some sort of Super Bowl. We usually got the opposition's best effort, but with Tom gone and the Pats also-ran finish last year we might be off the radar for the rest of the league. On the other hand, some teams (I'm especially thinking of the Bills) might look at this year as the time for revenge, to reverse years - even decades - of humiliation. Nine wins, if the offensive line jells and stays healthy.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

I think 9-7 which I also think could win the division

 

[Patriot Missile]

6-7 TRADE FOR TREVOR, unless Stidham turns out to be the second coming.

Unless the Bengals or Chiefs get the first pick in the draft, no one is trading away that Lawrence pick next year.

 

[mgteich]

Too early to tell.

Ask us after the draft.

I'm fine with being asked the day BEFORE the draft, after we've made any trades for vets before the draft. Would the 2019 draft helped with predictions? We were a 11-13 win team before and after the draft. Sure, we expect to get some help from draftees (and UDFA's), but Belichick counts on them less than most.

We'll draft our missing pieces before, during and after the draft. IMO, the real key will be the QB and show well the receivers learn the "new" system, the one worked out for the new quarterback, who could be Stidham. And no, I don't expect to see Stidham running an offense that requires releasing passes to the 3rd or 4th option within 2 seconds or so, and having everyone read the defenses in the same way.

 

[luuked]

I really think it'll be hard to predict.

Bad teams with bad coaches go 3-13

Good teams with bad coaches go 8-8 and the inverse is true.

I don't think the 2020 NEP will be a bad team and certainly BB is a great coach.

9-7 but I reserve the right to change my mind.

I agree.

The difference between 10-6 and 6-10 often boils down to just 6-7 random moments (ball bouncing, a pass dropped over overthrown, ref spotting someone short ect.) in a season.

Anything is possible is a cliche but there are only a few legit sports where there is so much variance.

 

[Biffins]

I really think it'll be hard to predict.

Bad teams with bad coaches go 3-13

Good teams with bad coaches go 8-8 and the inverse is true.

I don't think the 2020 NEP will be a bad team and certainly BB is a great coach.

9-7 but I reserve the right to change my mind.

Good teams with bad QBs go 6-10 all the time.

 

[DarrylS]

Too early to tell as BB & crew usually make bigger splashes in FA later rather than earlier..

My usual guess has been pretty consistent, between 11 & 13 wins per year.. new guess is between 8 & 10 wins this year, but all of this is premature as we do not know who will be on the roster.

The Pats will be competitive, one thing for sure the sports talk mediots will spend all of their time bad mouthing BB and talking about what might have been..

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

While it's waaaayyy too early, but we need to consider the schedule:

Jets: 2-0
Bills: 1-1
Dolphins: 1-1
Chiefs: 0-1
Chargers: 1-0
Raiders: 0-1
Broncos: 1-0
Baltimore: 0-1
Texans: 0-1
Seattle: 0-1
Niners: 0-1
Cardinals: 1-0
Rams: 1-0

8-8....and I was generous in giving them a sweep of the Jets, wins over Broncos, Cardinals, Rams, and Chargers.

It would have been hard to win 11-12 games WITH Brady.

Dunno, I am torn....I think the best play is to NOT actively TANK...but at the same time...don't load up on talent...but a lot of developmental players. To get Lawrence, we have to go 3-13 at MINIMUM or hope to god that we end up at 5-11ish....and the #1 pick team already has their franchise QB....

I really hate 8-8 predictions. Be good or bad, don't be avg.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Good teams with bad QBs go 6-10 all the time.

That means they are a sorta bad team.

 

[everlong]

Felger was surprisingly balance on this next one, although he had some facts wrong or ignored them, shocker.

BB's records when Brady didn't start a game for him.

Cleveland: 36-44
NE Pre-Brady: 5-13
Other QB in Brady era: 13-6 (10-5 Cassell, JG 2-0, Brisette 1-1)

So the pre-Brady win percentage is .451
Other QB win percentage in Brady era is .684

Felger actually sided with Bill saying he's the .684 coach in NE after Brady and not the .451 before. I tend to agree with him.

Bill deserves credit for going 10-5 with Cassell as a starter but that's also 5 more loses than the year before not that they were going undefeated again with Brady at the helm.

But the facts are:

2007 to 2008, 179 less points

2007 SOS and SOV .535
2008 SOS .480 123-133
2008 SOV .408 71-103

Schedule really bailed them out. They got smoked by the Chargers and Steelers teams Tom has played really well against.

2016 without Brady
SOS 33-30-1 .523
SOV 26-21-1 .553

That's pretty good. Give Rex credit for a great game plan in the loss.

Total SOS & SOV 2008/16

SOS 156-163-1 .489
SOV 97-124-1 .455

Overall that SOS and SOV are probably about average for teams with winning records.

So the question posed was is Bill the Pre-Brady .451 winning percentage or the with Brady but out .684?

Brady 219-64 .773

Even if you don't discount the 2008 record for being very easy, 2020 schedule on paper is not very easy, that's still .089 less than Brady but I think we would all take that. That's still just under 11 wins on a 16 game season and 11.6 on a 17 game season. If Bill can average 11 wins a year without Tom that's going to be pretty impressive.

I think the big difference Bill and the rest of us are going to discover is 30-11 .731 with Brady vs 1-1 .500 without Brady. That's the biggest anomaly and nobody is every going to equal that. Even some of Brady's losses they were so outgunned because of injuries and he kept them in those games with a chance to win.