Pats win total next year

[LightSkinSmurf]

Too early to say but as of right now I'd say 8-8 or 9-7.

 

[Tottie]

Bills L
Bills L
Miami W
Miami L
Jets W
Jets L
Denver W
KC L
Oakland W
Chargers W
Cards L
Rams L
Seattle L
49s L
Hou L
Ravens L

5 Wins

 

[Zarozzor]

There’s no worse position in the NFL than no mans land at like 6-10, 7-9, 8-8. This roster doesn’t look like they can do anything in the playoffs even if they were to make it. I had rather go 2-14 and get Lawrence than be stuck in no mans land and picking 8-14 in the draft. Have one huge down year, get rewarded with a franchise QB that could be here for 15 years.

 

[neuronet]

Even with Brady we somehow lost to the Dolphins every freaking year. Now add a loss or two to the Bills. We still beat the Jets of course. This will be a painful transition year. 10 wins.

 

[libra957]

I don't see why we can't squeeze at least 10 wins.

 

[p8ryts]

Unless the Bengals or Chiefs get the first pick in the draft, no one is trading away that Lawrence pick next year.

Just for laughs, I checked a 2021 Walter Camp mock draft. I don't project a high win total this year, and not just because Brady left. If we only win 6-7 games and finish up in the high teens for a pick, the only team I could see as QB competition was Jacksonville. Other QB needy teams, Indy, PIT, NO, CHI, will have better records than the Pats. Now Jacksonville does look like the clubhouse winner on this one but Jacksonville is STUPID and might be willing to trade the pick. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

 

[Kontradiction]

Right now? 6-10. Talk to me after the draft, though.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

While it's waaaayyy too early, but we need to consider the schedule:

Jets: 2-0
Bills: 1-1
Dolphins: 1-1
Chiefs: 0-1
Chargers: 1-0
Raiders: 0-1
Broncos: 1-0
Baltimore: 0-1
Texans: 0-1
Seattle: 0-1
Niners: 0-1
Cardinals: 1-0
Rams: 1-0

8-8....and I was generous in giving them a sweep of the Jets, wins over Broncos, Cardinals, Rams, and Chargers.

It would have been hard to win 11-12 games WITH Brady.

Dunno, I am torn....I think the best play is to NOT actively TANK...but at the same time...don't load up on talent...but a lot of developmental players. To get Lawrence, we have to go 3-13 at MINIMUM or hope to god that we end up at 5-11ish....and the #1 pick team already has their franchise QB....

See what i bolded above.
Yeah, I think Brady figured that out. Probably thought it would actually be "hard to win 9--10 games WITH" him. Decided he'd rather cash a couple of big checks working for a friendlier coach and still be able to blame much of any fall off in his production on being in a new environment.

Win Win for him. A no-brainer once you think about it. Retiring would also have been a no-brainer but (a) he still wants to play and (b) $30 a year is real money, especially when he and his wife have probably lost a lot more than that in the Market over the last couple of weeks.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Felger was surprisingly balance on this next one, although he had some facts wrong or ignored them, shocker.

BB's records when Brady didn't start a game for him.

Cleveland: 36-44
NE Pre-Brady: 5-13
Other QB in Brady era: 13-6 (10-5 Cassell, JG 2-0, Brisette 1-1)

So the pre-Brady win percentage is .451
Other QB win percentage in Brady era is .684

Felger actually sided with Bill saying he's the .684 coach in NE after Brady and not the .451 before. I tend to agree with him.

Bill deserves credit for going 10-5 with Cassell as a starter but that's also 5 more loses than the year before not that they were going undefeated again with Brady at the helm.

But the facts are:

2007 to 2008, 179 less points

2007 SOS and SOV .535
2008 SOS .480 123-133
2008 SOV .408 71-103

Schedule really bailed them out. They got smoked by the Chargers and Steelers teams Tom has played really well against.

2016 without Brady
SOS 33-30-1 .523
SOV 26-21-1 .553

That's pretty good. Give Rex credit for a great game plan in the loss.

Total SOS & SOV 2008/16

SOS 156-163-1 .489
SOV 97-124-1 .455

Overall that SOS and SOV are probably about average for teams with winning records.

So the question posed was is Bill the Pre-Brady .451 winning percentage or the with Brady but out .684?

Brady 219-64 .773

Even if you don't discount the 2008 record for being very easy, 2020 schedule on paper is not very easy, that's still .089 less than Brady but I think we would all take that. That's still just under 11 wins on a 16 game season and 11.6 on a 17 game season. If Bill can average 11 wins a year without Tom that's going to be pretty impressive.

I think the big difference Bill and the rest of us are going to discover is 30-11 .731 with Brady vs 1-1 .500 without Brady. That's the biggest anomaly and nobody is every going to equal that. Even some of Brady's losses they were so outgunned because of injuries and he kept them in those games with a chance to win.

Ne careful...a lot of posters here will be very angry and disagree with the actual facts.

 

[sean10mm]

I think people are under-estimating how big the gap can be between even the 2019 version of Tom Brady and the typical scrub tier QB the Patriots might be stuck with.

People like to point to Jimmy G and that one year Cassel had where the team went 11-5 as evidence the team can easily be decent post-Brady, but the new guy won't be inheriting a 16-0 roster, and this is the same team that also burned picks on Rohan Davey, Ryan Mallett and Kevin O'Connell.

If Jarrett Stidham isn't a sueprhero out of nowhere, this team is probably facing an up hill battle to .500.

edit: Or put another way, the quality backups that let Belichick win those games for the Pats without Brady aren't on the team anymore, and Stidham is a complete enigma as an NFL starter.

Of course I'd love it if Stidham is Brady 2.0, or hell even Steve Young 2.0.

 

[Betterthanmost]

The Pats are like my portfolio right now, they have a potential to go boom or bust. I say stay the course. No need to panic and waste draft capital. We will be ok. BB needed to retool the team, Tom despite his brilliance had tuned BB out for the past two years and it was spreading. Clear out all those who have listened to all the motivational stuff and can't relate anymore and get fresh blood in, leaders from various teams. That is how you rebuild. This is going to be like 2010.

 

[VJCPatriot]

This is a rebuild year. Keep expectations low. I'd say .500 or worse is realistic. If Stidham develops and we have a SOLID draft this year we might contend for the playoffs next year.

Our drafts have been bad lately which showed in our decline last year. The draft is KEY though. We need to net at least 3 solid new contributors with our picks. And maybe our QB of the future. I want to bring in someone to compete with Stidham as I'm not confident that he is there yet or that he will ever be 'the guy'.

 

[zimmy]

I would set the over/under at 9 wins at this point.

 

[Coolade]

How do ya analyze that one at this point?

Um educated guess?

Schedule tougher, defense not as good ... Offense becomes a mystery, .But the structure is in place to win. Coaches etc.

11-5.

 

[mgteich]

Just for laughs, I checked a 2021 Walter Camp mock draft. I don't project a high win total this year, and not just because Brady left. If we only win 6-7 games and finish up in the high teens for a pick, the only team I could see as QB competition was Jacksonville. Other QB needy teams, Indy, PIT, NO, CHI, will have better records than the Pats. Now Jacksonville does look like the clubhouse winner on this one but Jacksonville is STUPID and might be willing to trade the pick. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

So, you're barring trades for draft picks before we might pick?

 

[SammyBlueCat]

I dunno

 

[p8ryts]

Ne careful...a lot of posters here will be very angry and disagree with the actual facts.

Figures don't lie but liars do figure

 

[p8ryts]

So, you're barring trades for draft picks before we might pick?

Huh?

 

[RIpats88]

depends how good Jared Stidham is. in 2016 I remember people looking at 1-3 as a realistic option with brady suspended. Instead we went 3-1 and people saw that Jimmy G was a solid NFL quarterback and could lead the team to wins.

Does Stidham fit in the system the same?

 

[NG Pats Fan]

5-11 at best, least talented offense in the NFL.