Pats Went 1-4 to End Season. What Was The Cause of Implosion?

[Stu Pidassle]

Stephens44 has it right, it is time to transition to the next phase. This team had too many holdovers that are sadly past their expiration date as front line players. Last year was a loss due to cap clearing and COVID, this year was a bridge year with a lot of vets from the second wave to help soften the landing for a rookie quarterback, next year needs to be step 1 for the next 3 super bowls. As a previous poster highlighted the Pats defense goes as their linebackers go. The team needs the next Hightower and Collins.

 

[lancerman]

The truth is the Pats started and ended the season ****ty and the 7 game win streak was a mirage. Look at who they beat.

1. The Jets who are one of worst teams in the league

2. The Chargers. Who are a bubble team that still has a lot of issues and ultimately couldn't seal the deal

3. The Browns who were a massive dissapointment this year who we hyped as a good win because of their expectation going into the season. Who also lost OBJ the week they played us which upended their team

4. The Panthers who had a good start but ultimately impoded and turned into a trash team by the time we got to them.

5. The Falcons who were one of the worst teams in the league, certainly bottom 5

6. The Titans right after they lost both Brown and Henry and they had to readjust to their offense.

7. The Bills in a game that was heavily impacted by the weather. Like no **** you can beat a pass first team if you remove their passing game via weather conditions that have nothing to do with you.

We were a lot closer to the bad team that started and ended the season. We just got a break from a stretch of teams that were either awful and in some respects overrated at the time we played them or were dealing with some serious issues with signature players on the team, or got the weather gods helping us.

We never beat a good a team straight up with no excuses or crazy scenarios happening to them.

 

[FCB02062]

The truth is the Pats started and ended the season ****ty and the 7 game win streak was a mirage. Look at who they beat.

1. The Jets who are one of worst teams in the league

2. The Chargers. Who are a bubble team that still has a lot of issues and ultimately couldn't seal the deal

3. The Browns who were a massive dissapointment this year who we hyped as a good win because of their expectation going into the season. Who also lost OBJ the week they played us which upended their team

4. The Panthers who had a good start but ultimately impoded and turned into a trash team by the time we got to them.

5. The Falcons who were one of the worst teams in the league, certainly bottom 5

6. The Titans right after they lost both Brown and Henry and they had to readjust to their offense.

7. The Bills in a game that was heavily impacted by the weather. Like no **** you can beat a pass first team if you remove their passing game via weather conditions that have nothing to do with you.

We were a lot closer to the bad team that started and ended the season. We just got a break from a stretch of teams that were either awful and in some respects overrated at the time we played them or were dealing with some serious issues with signature players on the team, or got the weather gods helping us.

We never beat a good a team straight up with no excuses or crazy scenarios happening to them.

correct. this team is more like a 6 or 7 win group, but you play the schedule. they're going to have 5 or 6 bad teams on the schedule every year. but they can't beat any good teams or quarterbacks. but I think it will be a step back next year. the defense is an absolute joke and they play a bunch of good quarterbacks next year - burrow, Allen 2x, Carr, Jackson, Rodgers, Murray.... that's 7 losses off the bat if the defense doesn't improve bigly or the offense suddenly turns into a 30 ppg outfit. in the last 3 years this defense has not beaten ONE good legitimate pro bowl level quarterback in the last 3 seasons.... before you jump back with Prescott in 19 and L Jackson in 20....those were BOTH in the rain and schitt weather and limited the offenses ..so similar to Allen this year in the hurricane. that's very disturbing. in short, Coach Bills defenses from 2019-2021 are O-fer vs good upper tier qbs, I may give you the win over Allen in 2019 (coincidentally I'd rank this as the last quality win for the new england Patriots)

 

[DropKickFlutie]

We need to nail it on the draft.

Yes. Next one is huge. Would go defense the first 3 straight picks: CB, ILB, NT.

.

 

[nowayback]

After bye, only Mac, Falk , Barmore and just a few others showed up . Coaches didnt, I think BB has to dump his gf . Too much sleeping at home .

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Stephens44 has it right, it is time to transition to the next phase. This team had too many holdovers that are sadly past their expiration date as front line players. Last year was a loss due to cap clearing and COVID, this year was a bridge year with a lot of vets from the second wave to help soften the landing for a rookie quarterback, next year needs to be step 1 for the next 3 super bowls. As a previous poster highlighted the Pats defense goes as their linebackers go. The team needs the next Hightower and Collins.

Yes and I chimed in as such in preseason. Very small window with Hightower, McCourty, Guy, Slater all possibly near retirement. Team could have gone farther with better staff coaching besides BB.

Now they're going to have to rebuild some major pieces on defense with the draft and free agency.

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

The 1991 Browns were 6-7 and in the playoff hunt but lost their final three games.

The 1992 Browns were 7-6 and were in playoff track but lost their final three games.

The 1993 Browns were 6-6 and in the playoff hunt but lost three of their last four games.

The 1995 Browns, coming off that playoff season, were 4-4 before collapsing with a 1-7 finish, which most people write off to the team‘s imminent relocation.

The myth that Belichick teams always get get better late in the season is rooted in two things: Tom Brady (weird, huh…the Bucs are 12-1 after Thanksgiving), and the cake schedule to end the 2008 season, where the last four games were against teams that were a combined 25-39, with three of those games at home (and yes, I’m aware the Cardinals went on a Cinderella run to make the SB.)

I’m not crapping on Belichick, though I’ve learned you can’t state facts here because there are too many crybabies. What I like to do is point out that many of the perceived advantages aren’t actually there and are simply confirmation bias. With Brady, Belichick won at a .750 clip. So many of the winning trends are explained by regular dominance and expected winning pct rather than by some other 5D chess factors. This includes:

• Belichick teams have a built-in advantage after a bye week.
• Belichick teams don’t get blown out because they’re so well prepared.
• Belichick does better than expected against rookie QBs.

Again, when you combine a .750 win pct with these other factors, the results make sense. For example, winning at .750 against all teams, means you’ll be winning at a really, really high rate against rookie QBs who have a conglomerate winning pct. of .350 to .400. The teams don’t get blown out much because they’re dominant. They win a lot after the bye week because they flat out win a lot.

Without Brady, you can see that when Bill has had non-elite teams, all of these splits tend to be right on the bell curve.

Great post, I don't know what else to say.

It's crazy when you think about it.

I used to defend Belichick a few months ago - claiming that he's still a good coach, but that his status as "GOAT" can easily be disputed by the fact that his coaching philosophy and schemes are still too dependent on having a great QB (for instance - his bend don't break defenses the last 12 years need Brady to mask, and you saw what happened this year).

But after the Bills game, and looking at this, it's crazy. I knew he get a pass for Cleveland, but goddamn, I didn't know he ALSO collapsed late in the regular season there as well, almost every year.

It's to a point where you have to really wonder if he's even that good at all, as hard as it is for some people to admit.

71-79, 2 playoff appearances, 1 playoff win, 3 winning seasons and 0 division titles without Tom through 9 seasons.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

Maybe Bill works them harder than he should near the end of the year, and they're tired?
I don't know

 

[Wingy]

What does age have to do with it?? he has more football intelligence and coaching intelligence than anyone else in the league..

Amazing how anyone can generalize Bills alleged ineptitude in terms of age..

It can’t be ignored as a concern moving forward when considering what Bill was early dynasty vs whatever one thinks he is now.

It shouldn’t be taken as an insult. It’s part of being a human being. Any human being. You simply become less sharp as the years progress due to time, wear and tear, lack of adequate sleep, etc. I would think that’s magnified in such a grueling profession as NFL head coach.

I’m saying it’s a factor. I can’t say I strongly disagree with you on it being too loosely used as an over-generalization though.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Great post, I don't know what else to say.

It's crazy when you think about it.

I used to defend Belichick a few months ago - claiming that he's still a good coach, but that his status as "GOAT" can easily be disputed by the fact that his coaching philosophy and schemes are still too dependent on having a great QB (for instance - his bend don't break defenses the last 12 years need Brady to mask, and you saw what happened this year).

But after the Bills game, and looking at this, it's crazy. I knew he get a pass for Cleveland, but goddamn, I didn't know he ALSO collapsed late in the regular season there as well, almost every year.

It's to a point where you have to really wonder if he's even that good at all, as hard as it is for some people to admit.

71-79, 2 playoff appearances, 1 playoff win, 3 winning seasons and 0 division titles without Tom through 9 seasons.

I like to use the Phil Jackson/Larry Brown comparison.

Phil Jackson can take a team of stars and make them the best possible version of themselves. He can take superstar players like Jordan-Pippen, Shaq-Kobe, etc. and get them to buy into the team concept. Others tried and failed.

Larry Brown can take a team of misfits and not much talent and get them to play at a much higher level than expected. He was also great at rebuilding franchises.

Both guys have different strengths. If you had the most talented team in the league, you'd probably want Belichick as your coach. If you had a team that really wasn't so great and were looking for them to get to the next level, I don't know if he'd really do that much, if anything.

 

[Fatmancryin]

I like to use the Phil Jackson/Larry Brown comparison.

Phil Jackson can take a team of stars and make them the best possible version of themselves. He can take superstar players like Jordan-Pippen, Shaq-Kobe, etc. and get them to buy into the team concept. Others tried and failed.

Larry Brown can take a team of misfits and not much talent and get them to play at a much higher level than expected. He was also great at rebuilding franchises.

Both guys have different strengths. If you had the most talented team in the league, you'd probably want Belichick as your coach. If you had a team that really wasn't so great and were looking for them to get to the next level, I don't know if he'd really do that much, if anything.

What superstars did Belichick have when he won 6 Super Bowls? Sure he had Brady, but that is all. He developed players like McGinist, Bruschi, Law, Butler, Jackson , Gronkowski, just to name a few. He has made quite a few UDFA millionaires through the years. Veterans would sign here and run through walls. The Patriots in 22 years never had a team with the most talent, except maybe 2007 and how did that season end?

Maybe his coaching style is stale, maybe some players just don’t want to run through walls to win. 9 Super Bowl appearances in 20 years doesn’t happen if your coach isn’t able to take it to the next level with average to above average players.

 

[ErniesPinkStripes]

What superstars did Belichick have when he won 6 Super Bowls? Sure he had Brady, but that is all. He developed players like McGinist, Bruschi, Law, Butler, Jackson , Gronkowski, just to name a few. He has made quite a few UDFA millionaires through the years. Veterans would sign here and run through walls. The Patriots in 22 years never had a team with the most talent, except maybe 2007 and how did that season end?

Maybe his coaching style is stale, maybe some players just don’t want to run through walls to win. 9 Super Bowl appearances in 20 years doesn’t happen if your coach isn’t able to take it to the next level with average to above average players.

While I agree with the premise of your post, Gronk doesn't belong in that group imo (love those guys, but Gronk is arguably the best TE ever)

 

[amfootball]

I think there are many factors for the poor endings to the seasons. I think the teams have fell apart physically and mentally. I think the competition was better as it usually is post-Thanksgiving when the contenders rise and the pretenders fall. It is hard to know how to fix it beyond just continuing to build the team with talented players and also upgrading the coaching staff.

 

[Rob0729]

This needs to be dissected. And it's in line with Mac's comments after that loss about a rough week of practice. Does it reflect on the coaches?

Bye weeks can be double edge swords. It is good to rest players, but if you are on a roll it can kill the momentum.

 

[Pats2000]

I don't think the offense is that good. In fact, nobody on the Pats O scares an opposing D. Pats need a game changer at WR to help Mac out.

Pats will keep flaming out against good teams with their pedestrian WR group.

I don't agree with this at all. The Pats Offense was just fine, you had a rookie QB that put up 3800 yards, 67.6% completions, 22 TD's and 13 interceptions. Let's compare that with a few other notable rookies who are now playing extremely well:

Josh Allen
2018 - 52.8% completion, 2074 yards, 10 TD, 12 INT
2019 - 58.5% completion, 2089 yards, 20 TD, 9 INT

Lamar Jackson
2018 - 58.2% completion, 1201 yards, 6 TD, 3 INT
2019 - 66.1% completion, 3127 yards, 36 TD, 6 INT
2020 - 64.4% completion, 2757 yards, 26 TD, 9 INT

Joe Burrow (normalized to 17 game season, since he only played 10 games)
2020 - 65.3% completion, 4569 yards, 22 TD, 9 INT

Mac is right up there with these other starting QB's in the league his rookie year. The guy is going to be a stud. The NFL is hard for rookies. Year 2 will tell us a lot about Mac's growth.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

What superstars did Belichick have when he won 6 Super Bowls? Sure he had Brady, but that is all. He developed players like McGinist, Bruschi, Law, Butler, Jackson , Gronkowski, just to name a few. He has made quite a few UDFA millionaires through the years. Veterans would sign here and run through walls. The Patriots in 22 years never had a team with the most talent, except maybe 2007 and how did that season end?

Maybe his coaching style is stale, maybe some players just don’t want to run through walls to win. 9 Super Bowl appearances in 20 years doesn’t happen if your coach isn’t able to take it to the next level with average to above average players.

This roster wasn't worse than prior Patriot rosters that won it all. Agree 100%. I am very reluctant to pin it on BB because I think he's the GOAT. Hence why all the obvious coaching issues I pin it on the OC and mediocre staff around old-BB.

But this needs to be fixed. I don't need to waste another season of BB's career to know the OC is a waste of space and stale/predictable.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Boston Globe postmortem:
----
"· The Patriots couldn’t have botched the top of that ‘19 draft more if they were trying to. Samuel went to the Niners in the second round (No. 36 overall), four picks after the Harry selection completed the first and nine picks before the Patriots traded up to take cornerback Joejuan Williams at No. 45.

Williams has done next to nothing as a Patriot, recording 44 tackles in 36 games without an interception, fumble recovery, or sack. His presence on the field for a career-high 41 defensive snaps Saturday did a nice job of confirming how much Jalen Mills was missed for that one game, how much Stephon Gilmore is missed overall, and how much help they need to add.
"

A few postmortem thoughts on a Patriots season that ended decisively in Buffalo

A few parting thoughts on their season’s suspense-free ending while wondering whether the Patriots would have beaten the Steelers … · OK, we’ve had a couple of days to think about this, and here’s the conclusion: The Bills’ 47-17 throttling Saturday night was not the most thorough postseason...

www.boston.com

 

[sb1]

Great post, I don't know what else to say.

It's crazy when you think about it.

I used to defend Belichick a few months ago - claiming that he's still a good coach, but that his status as "GOAT" can easily be disputed by the fact that his coaching philosophy and schemes are still too dependent on having a great QB (for instance - his bend don't break defenses the last 12 years need Brady to mask, and you saw what happened this year).

But after the Bills game, and looking at this, it's crazy. I knew he get a pass for Cleveland, but goddamn, I didn't know he ALSO collapsed late in the regular season there as well, almost every year.

It's to a point where you have to really wonder if he's even that good at all, as hard as it is for some people to admit.

71-79, 2 playoff appearances, 1 playoff win, 3 winning seasons and 0 division titles without Tom through 9 seasons.

Just shows that great players are and always will be more important to a team's success than a great coach. Peyton Manning took an inferior NFL coach to a Super Bowl. Nuff said. Belichick is one of the all time great coaches but give him or any coach a crap roster and you get the 2020 Pats. Give them a flawed roster with a rookie QB and you get the 2021 Patriots. Give him an all universe QB with a good defense and talent on offense and most of the time you get success.

There is no "system" here. Brady proved that.

Also moving on from Bill today would be compounding one historic mistake (letting Brady leave) with another. There's no point to doing that right now and there's no reason to think that would make the team better. HC is not a weakness of this team, the personnel is. The Dolphins just blew whatever momentum they had making the same mistake and they will pay for it and not be competitive for a while.
And Bill won't be around for that much longer anyway. He will see the rebuild to its end as he should.

 

[amfootball]

Just shows that great players are and always will be more important to a team's success than a great coach. Peyton Manning took an inferior NFL coach to a Super Bowl. Nuff said. Belichick is one of the all time great coaches but give him or any coach a crap roster and you get the 2020 Pats. Give them a flawed roster with a rookie QB and you get the 2021 Patriots. Give him an all universe QB with a good defense and talent on offense and most of the time you get success.

There is no "system" here. Brady proved that.

Also moving on from Bill today would be compounding one historic mistake (letting Brady leave) with another. There's no point to doing that right now and there's no reason to think that would make the team better. HC is not a weakness of this team, the personnel is. The Dolphins just blew whatever momentum they had making the same mistake and they will pay for it and not be competitive for a while.
And Bill won't be around for that much longer anyway. He will see the rebuild to its end as he should.

I would rather see a seismic shift in the way the team is built. I agree that Bill should stay on his head coach assuming he has interest and actually beefing up his assistants otherwise it may be time for him to go.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Just shows that great players are and always will be more important to a team's success than a great coach. Peyton Manning took an inferior NFL coach to a Super Bowl. Nuff said. Belichick is one of the all time great coaches but give him or any coach a crap roster and you get the 2020 Pats. Give them a flawed roster with a rookie QB and you get the 2021 Patriots. Give him an all universe QB with a good defense and talent on offense and most of the time you get success.

There is no "system" here. Brady proved that.

Also moving on from Bill today would be compounding one historic mistake (letting Brady leave) with another. There's no point to doing that right now and there's no reason to think that would make the team better. HC is not a weakness of this team, the personnel is. The Dolphins just blew whatever momentum they had making that mistake.
And Bill won't be around for that much longer anyway. He will see the rebuild to its end as he should.

Keep BB. But he's old, can't see every play and every advanced scouting clip to prepare for games or the draft. Surround the goat HC with new staff. The OC is stale and predictable.

No more opinings from internal mediocre staff who thought the following players were good: NKeal Harry, Wynn, Herron/Durant, Laurence Maroney, Chad Jackson, Tim Tebow, Godchaux, Bentley, SloJuan Williams.