Pats favored in SB, but underdogs?

[WHPats]

Hey guys

Sorry for the potentially misleading title, but although the early line has Pats at 5, I feel like an awful lot of people think Philly will win. They are a good team, you don’t get this far with mediocrity...but picking a Nick Foles team to beat the GOAT? Having a very hard time imagining it. The argument is that Philly’s defense is the big equalizer and that that cancels out Brady. Even a superhuman effort by the Giants front four in SB 42 likely would have been for naught if not for the helmet catch and subsequent winning drive from Eli.

It actually feels like we might be underdogs this time, a position the Pats are almost never in. Worked out pretty well the last time we were underdogs ie SB 36. What do you guys think?

 

[Ring 6]

Patriots are a 5 point favorite.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I don’t think we are underdogs because they have Foles but the whole world is against us.

 

[Soliel]

The people saying this are delusional. If gronk gets cleared, I predict a movement to -7

 

[ALP]

Yeah you’re misconstruing being the underdogs with 90% of the country rooting against us just because they want us to lose

Bet you they ain’t putting money on eagles

 

[NYCPatsFan]

I wish Vegas picked the Eagles to win, and have us as the underdog. Will be glad to fly under the radar as the whole world gushes about how the Eagles trampled the #1 defense and so the Pats are no match.

 

[GoBlue]

I don't know whether to be disappointed or not. Had a slight chance of going to the Super Bowl but it fell through. A friend in KOP Pa is Eagles season tic holder and won the rights to 2 tics for $2500. He and his 3 buddies weren't going until he found another Eagles fan that has optiong to buy 2 but isn't so my friend now has 4 and is going.
I wasn't especialy fond of going to a cold weather city in Feb anyway although i would like to see the Pats win another Super Bowl in person.

 

[sean10mm]

Vegas isn't always right, but they're the ones making decisions based on what will get them PAID, rather than just making noises to rile up their audience... and they're picking the Pats. Enough said.

The Eagles CAN win. They are a good team, and a random dumb bounce can cause a 14 point swing in the time it takes to get a fresh beer. Stupid crap decides games all the time. But anybody saying the Eagles are more likely to win has an agenda or is just dumb IMO.

 

[oldrover]

The Eagles CAN win. They are a good team, and a random dumb bounce can cause a 14 point swing in the time it takes to get a fresh beer.

That's why I drink bourbon. The chances of me emptying a bottle are very remote...



...maybe 2:1.

 

[XLIX]

Nationally people are talking up the Eagles, mostly out of the desire to see Philly win more so than the x’s and o’s of the matter.

However, as far as people putting their money where their mouths are, the consensus is roughly 67% chance of NE winning.

 

[Soliel]

Yeah you’re misconstruing being the underdogs with 90% of the country rooting against us just because they want us to lose

Bet you they ain’t putting money on eagles

Lol no, they won’t put money on the table. They’d have to be high to do that

 

[patchick]

Vegas isn't always right, but they're the ones making decisions based on what will get them PAID, rather than just making noises to rile up their audience... and they're picking the Pats.

...which, as you make clear yourself, is 100% about cash flow, not who they think will win.

Vegas makes its money by skimming a percentage off the top, and as long as they take in even money in both directions they can just pay out one side's losses as the other's winnings. The problem is that in the Brady/Belichick era, simply betting on the Pats to cover every single week has turned out to be a fabulous winning strategy. In recent years that fact has brought in vast amounts of money on the Pats' side of lines, leading to exaggerated point spreads to push some dollars the other way.

Which is all a long-winded way to say that Vegas spreads aren't "picks" so much as weather reports about how much money is falling from the sky. Actual predictions about who will win seem to be running pretty even.

 

[libra957]

"picking a Nick Foles team to beat the GOAT?"..i don't understand why Foles can't beat Brady, he once had a great year back in 2013 27 td vs 2 int and he's playing great now. I can perfectly envision such scenario with our defense.

 

[upstater1]

The Eagles had a great season won a lot of games. Foles > Bortles. It is not crazy to think they'll beat the Patriots.

I think the one great factor in the game is going to be the long halftime and conditioning.

No matter how many points the Patriots score in the first half, I hope they have some long drives on the Eagles that will make the Eagles weary with 20 minutes left to go.

If you told me that the Patriots would have 3 six minute drives of 70 yards each in the first half, and enter halftime down 17-9, I would say that's not a horrible place for them to be.

 

[Soliel]

Files won’t be able to cut it.

Vegas line went down to -5 now but it’s because of gronk and the beat down of Minnesota who seemed drained of energy. Many teams I’ve noticed that rarely make the playoffs fizzle out like that

 

[RIpats88]

Pats fans have a habit of building up opponents to unreasonable levels.

Not that eagles dont have a chance. They do. But you read some of the stuff here and you would think its the 85 bears and foles is joe montana in his prime

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

I don’t think the vast majority of people want the Eagles to win as much as they want NE to lose.

 

[Soliel]

Pats fans have a habit of building up opponents to unreasonable levels.

Not that eagles dont have a chance. They do. But you read some of the stuff here and you would think its the 85 bears and foles is joe montana in his prime

The eagles are good but I can’t see them winning the game. Anything can happen tho
Wonder which eagle makes a bizzare catch this time. I think the line is about right however, 55 percent of the tickets bought so far in Vegas are on the eagles

To be fair, they were doing that at-5.5 so they may be betting with the points they get

 

[supafly]

"picking a Nick Foles team to beat the GOAT?"..i don't understand why Foles can't beat Brady, he once had a great year back in 2013 27 td vs 2 int and he's playing great now. I can perfectly envision such scenario with our defense.

We heard the same thing about Flacco, Eli, and even Jay Cutler in week 14 of this year. For some reason, people just tend to hone in on the QB and not the entire team which surrounds him.

Jeffrey, Torrey Smith, and Agulor are 3 very capable receivers, and that’s not even including TE Ertz who was their leading receiver. They have a one-two punch in the backfield with Ajayi and Blount, and a tough defense. Of course they can win, Vegas’ stupid meaningless pointspread be damned. We lost as huge favorites in 2007, in 2010, and again in the AFCCG in 2012. I’m guessing that we were close to double digit favorites down in Miami this year, too.

 

[Ring 6]

...which, as you make clear yourself, is 100% about cash flow, not who they think will win.

Vegas makes its money by skimming a percentage off the top, and as long as they take in even money in both directions they can just pay out one side's losses as the other's winnings. The problem is that in the Brady/Belichick era, simply betting on the Pats to cover every single week has turned out to be a fabulous winning strategy. In recent years that fact has brought in vast amounts of money on the Pats' side of lines, leading to exaggerated point spreads to push some dollars the other way.

Which is all a long-winded way to say that Vegas spreads aren't "picks" so much as weather reports about how much money is falling from the sky. Actual predictions about who will win seem to be running pretty even.

But ultimately it represents the consensus prediction of people betting money on the game, heavily weighted by large money gamblers who probably are better predictors than any one you see on tv.

The line essentially says: how many points do we have to gove the eagles to get people to bet on them, or how many points do we have to take away from the patriots to get people off of betting on them.

The money line is really a better gauge but a less publicized one, which says how little can I pay you back in a 100 bet and still have you willing to be on the patriots.