Quite a few years ago I started playing with the numbers in football to see if there was a trend in the stats that leads to winning. TOP is a pretty good indicator for a particular game after the fact, but I was looking for some stat going into games that helps a team win.
Back before the rules were Polianed, the more meaningful stats were running stats. Teams who stopped the run and ran the ball better won more than the others.
After the rules were Polianed the teams who passed the ball and stopped the pass better were winning more games.
But through it all there have been 3 stats that lead to wins more than any others. Points scored, points against and power ranking. The teams that score the most and/or give up the least points going into a particular game, or teams that are ranked higher, win most often.
Another factor is home field advantage. If all you did was pick home teams in the games played so far this year you'd have a record of 92-67-2. Oddly enough, that's the same exact record you'd have if you picked the teams that were ranked the best at the time they played each other.
Then you have to consider what affect the schedule has on a teams true strength. Don't get me started.