Patriots Won't Tag Adam

[dryheat44]

When you doing that research you might want to consider their recent track records. Graham looks pretty good now in Cincy after bombing in Buffalo and Carolina. He got a shot at Rackers job when Cincy let him go. Lindell struggled in Seattle and almost didn't last his first season in Buffalo. Feeley is apparently that anomoly who doesn't kick well indoors, or at least Atlanta thought so. So far in 1 season he's looked very good outdoors for the Giants.

While you don't pay for past performance per se, track record for consistency is pretty crucial when making decisions about your FG kicker. These guys are up and down from one season to the next, so the guys who exhibit the most consistency over time (not to mention in difficult conditions and under pressure) have a value all their own. Adam had a down season % wise in 2003, although he made the kicks that mattered. In 2004 he rebounded and was dominant. And again everything he's done he's done here playing for a team that actually frequently required clutch kicking - something that hasn't been much of an issue for the Giants, Bills and Bengals over the last 5 seasons.

I agree with much of what you're saying. We could probably make a case FOR every one of these guys, and a case AGAINST them as well. Vandy can't kick off or kick long field goals. Mare struggles with bad weather. Nedney's had injuries. And so forth. I'm not suggesting we rush to dump AV and sign one of these guys (as you said, most are under contract), but I am suggesting that maybe Adam shouldn't be far and away the highest-paid kicker in the league. Nugent, a rookie, finished right behind him. So did Gould, an undrafted rookie. Sometimes kickers go up and down. Sometimes they gradually get worse every year. I'd like to sign Adam to a two-year deal for the same money he made last year. I don't think he's going to go for that. So we move on. I mean, does it make sense to pay Adam 3 million a year than to pay Longwell or Nedney (for example...I don't know what their demands would be) 2 million a year, and use the extra cap room to sign or extend somebody? I don't think it does.

 

[dryheat44]

When you doing that research you might want to consider their recent track records. Graham looks pretty good now in Cincy after bombing in Buffalo and Carolina. He got a shot at Rackers job when Cincy let him go. Lindell struggled in Seattle and almost didn't last his first season in Buffalo. Feeley is apparently that anomoly who doesn't kick well indoors, or at least Atlanta thought so.

And likewise, Adam had such a bad start to his rookie year, that he was brought into a blowout win against the Cardinals to kick a field goal in the last minute. He had missed four or so already that season, including two that day (week 3). He was kicking for his job. He made the kick.

So he also nearly didn't last his first season. Why is that relevant regarding any other kicker who struggled early in his career or in a new venue? How are they kicking in the present should be all that matters.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I'd like to sign Adam to a two-year deal for the same money he made last year. I don't think he's going to go for that. So we move on. I mean, does it make sense to pay Adam 3 million a year than to pay Longwell or Nedney (for example...I don't know what their demands would be) 2 million a year, and use the extra cap room to sign or extend somebody? I don't think it does.

Rational thinking. Probably close to how BB sees it.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I've been distressed by the inability of the Pats not to sign Adam over the lst year. I can only hope that it has more to do with Adam's agent's problems and the lack of a CBA. Maybe BB has gotten the world from Kraft that the CBA is or is not close. I have a feeling that the Players union may call for a susepension of the free agent period until the CBA is signed (figuring that the players would get bigger contracts with rather than without a CBA).

Vanderjerk is 38 years old, Adam is only 33. I say sign him for at least three more years. Picture in your mind Peyton's face when Vanderjerk (an All-Pro kicker mind you) missed that kick at the end of the Pittsbug game. The kick was about thrity yards wide! It almost went out of bounds for god's sake. and that was indoors! The Pats played alot of close games, it is their gameplan, they hardly ever blow teams out, and the can play that way beacuse they know the have Adam. Do not discount his clutchness. BB has said the same thing about both Brady and Adam "Nobody else in the league I'd rather have out there".

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Vanderjerk is 38 years old, Adam is only 33. I say sign him for at least three more years.

Actually, Vanderjagt will be 36 in March but your point remains. I think we'll sign Adam long term or go with a young, unproven guy. It makes little sense to me to sign a veteran and save only $500K. Signing a young guy for league minimum saves $2M+.

 

[ilduce06410]

anybody know anything about kickers and aging?

What you say is true but Adam is also going to be 34 before the end of next season. I know kickers can last a long time but do you want to commit $3M a year until he's 37 or 38 ?

it's been my opinion that kicker's value while in his middle 30s does not diminish.
that vinatieri's to expected to be just as good at 37 as he is at 34.
i'm too lazy to get the numbers myself right now. i apologize, will make amends.

 

[ilduce06410]

what do you think?

Are we comparing a kicker's impact on the game to a running back's?

ok, let's open pandora's box.
IMO a kicker runs 4th on the "impact on the game" list.
1. QB
2. RB
3. MLB
4. K
5. DT
6. CB
7. DE
6. C
8. OTs
8. SS,FS
9. OLBs
10. OGs

it's a list, just a list.
lesse what happens.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

ok, let's open pandora's box.
IMO a kicker runs 4th on the "impact on the game" list.
1. QB
2. RB
3. MLB
4. K
5. DT
6. CB
7. DE
6. C
8. OTs
8. SS,FS
9. OLBs
10. OGs

it's a list, just a list.
lesse what happens.

So you think Vinatieri is more important than Seymour or Harrison ?

From the list above, Adam was 20/25 last year. Let's say a replacement was 15/25, which is terrible. That's 15 points in the season. 1 point per game.

Let's use 2004 when he was 31/33. If some schmuck kicker made 75% of them he would have been 25/33. Drop it to 22/33 for fun, that's a brutal 66%. That's still only 1.7 PPG between Vinatieri's best season and a total loser kicker.

 

[ilduce06410]

is this about what he's done, or about what he is?

I love Adam but he tends to be a little overrated as your stats suggest. He's made some amazing kicks but he's also missed some like two in SB 38. There are few, if any, kickers I would prefer to have but he's not Mr. Perfect like some seem to think he is. Admittedly, playing in the AFCE is a tough place for a kicker.

i think i can say with certainty that teams want to pay for the latter, players want to use the former.
in that case, baseball seems even more stupid than it is now.
i may seem wussified here, but no. vinatieri is not the best kicker in the league.
i'm not sure he ever has been. he is what he is, along with short kickoffs.
he was 20/25. seems pretty good. somebody named peterson was 23/25. those 3 kicks probably would have meant 11-5, steelers at home.
so vinatieri has a downside.
IMO, i want him running out on the field when 3 points means win or lose.
seeing as how that is what he is....

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Do you think that the Jets would have liked to have had Adam last year? Do you really think that he would have missed either of those kicks against the Steelers?

How bout the Colts's this year? Even after how bad they played agaisnt the Steelers, do you think that Adam would have made that kick, in a dome?

That kick costs the Colt's their chance. DO you have any doubt that if they made that kick, that they were probably going to win that game, then they would have beaten the Broncos (because they always do) and smoked the Seahawks. SO I can honestly say if the Colts had Adam, they would be Superbowl XL champs right now, even with their choking coach and QB. And we would be subject to Peyton this and Peyton that at infintum.

Now the Colts can have Adam, how much is he worth to the Pats now?

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Now the Colts can have Adam, how much is he worth to the Pats now?

Less than saving $2M or so to help re-sign the likes of Branch, Koppen, Graham, Givens, etc. To me, anyway.

 

[dryheat44]

Why is it assumed that Vinatieri could have made every missed field goal in the history of the NFL? Kicker X missed it, but Vinatieri would have had it. Maybe, maybe not. But what about, yeah, those important kicks Vinatieri missed, Kicker X would've nailed them? That scenario works too.

 

[dryheat44]

ok, let's open pandora's box.
IMO a kicker runs 4th on the "impact on the game" list.
1. QB
2. RB
3. MLB
4. K
5. DT
6. CB
7. DE
6. C
8. OTs
8. SS,FS
9. OLBs
10. OGs

it's a list, just a list.
lesse what happens.

You are severly underestimating offensive line play. And defensive secondary play.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Why is it assumed that Vinatieri could have made every missed field goal in the history of the NFL? Kicker X missed it, but Vinatieri would have had it. Maybe, maybe not. But what about, yeah, those important kicks Vinatieri missed, Kicker X would've nailed them? That scenario works too.

I think we all agree that :

- We want Adam back.
- He's a GREAT clutch kicker.
- He's not a perfect clutch kicker, as some like to think.

The only question is whether he's worth around $3M a year.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Regardless of the pro's and con's of signing Adam, I'll throw up in my mouth the first time I see him in another team's uniform.

 

[Richter]

While I don't want to see Adam leave, let's face facts: BB does not like field goals. His-in game strategy has made that abundantly clear for a while now; better to go for it in most situations, which will either eventually net you more points or better field position. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see the team let Adam walk because of this. It would be disappointing, but that's the nature of the NFL.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

While I don't want to see Adam leave, let's face facts: BB does not like field goals. His-in game strategy has made that abundantly clear for a while now; better to go for it in most situations, which will either eventually net you more points or better field position.

I may be wrong but it seemed like Belichick went for it or punted in lieu of a FG attempt more last year than ever before.

 

[Richter]

I may be wrong but it seemed like Belichick went for it or punted in lieu of a FG attempt more last year than ever before.

He definitely did, I kept noting it through the season because there were so many opportunities where the team would stall in no man's land around the 35-40 and they'd go for it on short yardage or let Miller do his thing. It just makes more sense. Better to maintain field position or go for 7 than try a long field goal and face decent odds that you get nothing and give the other team the ball near midfield.

 

[ilduce06410]

i knew this would happen

You are severly underestimating offensive line play. And defensive secondary play.

here they come. look folks. it's not that I'M over- or underestimating something. this is a response as to whether i thought a K was as important as a RB.
but maybe it's time to stand up and take a beating. after all, i put it up there.

 

[InBillITrust]

Yea, I think the Pats are in a tough situation here. AV is already the highest paid K in the league and franchising him would have made him something like 30% higher than the next guy. We all know he is the best, but that much more than the next guy? I think the Pats just want to negotiate to make him the highest paid kicker, but maybe just with a 5% premium.

I wouldn't be surprised if some rich owner like Jerry Jones or Dan Snyder swooped in and offered AV an incredible deal. With an uncapped year likely in 07, they can give him a moderate raise in 06 and a huge one in 07.