Patriots Daily News Thread Patriots Wednesday 12/27/23

[upstater1]

I went back and rewound the opening fumble for Zappe. It certainly wasn't a strip sack but he lost the ball with his arm moving forward. Found it interesting that Belichick didn't challenge the call. It was even more interesting that NYC review didn't bother to look at it again. And then on a series soon after that, the NFL reviewed the Mack Wilson interception in the end zone that was called clean on the field. Belichick not reviewing that raises eyebrows, but the league's double standard is indefensible.

 

[Ian]

 

[Ian]

 

[p8ryts]

I went back and rewound the opening fumble for Zappe. It certainly wasn't a strip sack but he lost the ball with his arm moving forward. Found it interesting that Belichick didn't challenge the call. It was even more interesting that NYC review didn't bother to look at it again. And then on a series soon after that, the NFL reviewed the Mack Wilson interception in the end zone that was called clean on the field. Belichick not reviewing that raises eyebrows, but the league's double standard is indefensible.

No raised eyebrows here. Both looked called correctly.

 

[Ian]

I believe head-to-head - at least in the draft - is below strength of schedule in that metric:

From the league:


Here are the standings with Conference record, etc:



At the same time, on the SOS metric, the Patriots opponent's pct is 51.% and the Commanders is 50.5%, so I'm not sure how they calculated it. (EDIT: @DaBruinz , Was just thinking about it ... I'm assuming the team with the worse record against worse competition is why that's flipped?)

Just looked again and the lower strength of schedule metric (losing to teams with a lower strength of schedule metric ie: losing to worse teams) appears to be how they do it:

From Tankathon:

2023 Commanders Opponent Records

2023 Commanders Opponent Record Totals.

www.patsfans.com

UPDATED: 12/27 5:08pm - This has been updated after Ross pointed out a glitch that I hadn't spotted:

 

[upstater1]

No raised eyebrows here. Both looked called correctly.

Arm was moving forward, lost control of the ball. Not a fumble

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Almost as if Belichick is planning to be here next year and is thinking of that draft pick ...

 

[jdlboot14]

Well, Pats have been ruining teams playoff hopes 1 old rival at a time.
Our win over Steelers at home may cost them the playoffs
Our win over Broncos at home certainly cost them the playoffs (and the end of Wilson)
If we beat the Bills at home, their road to the playoffs gets very dicey
Go Pats.

 

[Ross12]

Just looked again and the lower strength of schedule metric (losing to teams with a lower strength of schedule metric ie: losing to worse teams) appears to be how they do it:

From Tankathon:

Albeit, their formula appears to either go beyond the opp winning pct, or they're projecting that number through the remaining two games because the math obviously doesn't work based on the current win/loss totals for them:

2023 Commanders Opponent Records

2023 Commanders Opponent Record Totals.

www.patsfans.com

Tankathon uses the current record for all teams every team has played and will play in the future for their full schedule, so for NE their SOS figure includes the second games against Buffalo and NYJ. The figure adjusts for every game that every team they have played/will play completes, so for instance if the Eagles lose a game next week then the Patriots' SOS will go down because they played the Eagles earlier this year. If the Eagles win a game then the SOS will go up. Same for every single other team they have played the rest of the year plus their future games, and the same for every other team's SOS. It makes it hard to project - you have to try to consider every outcome of every game for every team that each team has previously played and will play.

One funny aspect is that Washington losing games also lowers NE's SOS because NE played Washington. But the same is true in reverse.

 

[Steve102]

Tankathon uses the current record for all teams every team has played and will play in the future for their full schedule, so for NE their SOS figure includes the second games against Buffalo and NYJ. The figure adjusts for every game that every team they have played/will play completes, so for instance if the Eagles lose a game next week then the Patriots' SOS will go down because they played the Eagles earlier this year. If the Eagles win a game then the SOS will go up. Same for every single other team they have played the rest of the year plus their future games, and the same for every other team's SOS. It makes it hard to project - you have to try to consider every outcome of every game for every team that each team has previously played and will play.

One funny aspect is that Washington losing games also lowers NE's SOS because NE played Washington. But the same is true in reverse.

I guess I am all set trying to figure it out at this point. We have 2 weeks of 2023 left, then we have almost 4 month of mock draft and over analysis trying to figure out who they should take.

 

[Ross12]

I guess I am all set trying to figure it out at this point. We have 2 weeks of 2023 left, then we have almost 4 month of mock draft and over analysis trying to figure out who they should take.

Just talked to @Ian in a DM about this a bit and we figured out that Tankathon is kinda BSing us on part of this - it says it is counting "all 17 opponents" but when doing the math, it becomes clear that it is actually only calculating SOS based on opponents that have been played so far. The difference between Ian's figures above and Tankathon's just comes down to needing to count Miami twice since they have been played twice by NE. Once that is done then 0.522 is correct.

This is good though because Washington's final two games (SF and Dallas) are a lot weightier on the SOS than NE's remaining two games (Buffalo and NYJ). Once those games are played, if NE and Washington are still tied, I see no way that NE wouldn't have a lower SOS. SF and Dallas are .700 combined, whereas Buffalo and NYJ are .500 combined.

 

[Steve102]

Just talked to @Ian in a DM about this a bit and we figured out that Tankathon is kinda BSing us on part of this - it says it is counting "all 17 opponents" but when doing the math, it becomes clear that it is actually only calculating SOS based on opponents that have been played so far. The difference between Ian's figures above and Tankathon's just comes down to needing to count Miami twice since they have been played twice by NE. Once that is done then 0.522 is correct.

This is good though because Washington's final two games (SF and Dallas) are a lot weightier on the SOS than NE's remaining two games (Buffalo and NYJ). Once those games are played, if NE and Washington are still tied, I see no way that NE wouldn't have a lower SOS. SF and Dallas are .700 combined, whereas Buffalo and NYJ are .500 combined.

I guess I am looking at it like they are 50/50 to win either game, so there's no sense in my getting all worked up about who's there 4-8th when they could be maybe as low as 10th if the win both and the Jete and Tennessee lose. They'll be where they'll be, and the folks that ***** about Bill or the Krafts are gonna ***** no matter what they do. We will know where they pick Jan. 1, and then I can start really getting into draft analysis.

 

[sb1]

Rham is done for 2023. No point playing him now

 

[Ross12]

I guess I am looking at it like they are 50/50 to win either game, so there's no sense in my getting all worked up about who's there 4-8th when they could be maybe as low as 10th if the win both and the Jete and Tennessee lose. They'll be where they'll be, and the folks that ***** about Bill or the Krafts are gonna ***** no matter what they do. We will know where they pick Jan. 1, and then I can start really getting into draft analysis.

I don’t think there is any way the Pats finish any lower than 8th even if they win out. However, if they win out, that is pretty interesting and might mean Zappe is their man for 2024, so QB may not be the target anymore anyway. At 8th, a small trade up for a left tackle is easy and reasonable.

 

[Ross12]

Rham is done for 2023. No point playing him now

We kind of knew this was the deal anyway, I didn’t expect Rham back this year. I haven’t seen much discussion about it but Kevin Harris looked really good in the last game. It seems like he’s gotten a little lighter and is running hard and hitting the hole better.

 

[vicspats]

I guess I am all set trying to figure it out at this point. We have 2 weeks of 2023 left, then we have almost 4 month of mock draft and over analysis trying to figure out who they should take.

Enjoy the last two weeks. It’s gonna be a LONG offseason ….

 

[signbabybrady]

Truth
30+ interception and sacks
2 SB rings
I think he's better than all recent Safeties that got in except Reed.
I don't like the Hall or consider it useful until it fixes this travesty

 

[signbabybrady]

I went back and rewound the opening fumble for Zappe. It certainly wasn't a strip sack but he lost the ball with his arm moving forward. Found it interesting that Belichick didn't challenge the call. It was even more interesting that NYC review didn't bother to look at it again. And then on a series soon after that, the NFL reviewed the Mack Wilson interception in the end zone that was called clean on the field. Belichick not reviewing that raises eyebrows, but the league's double standard is indefensible.

I don't think he's allowed to it's up to the booth and if Bill throws his flag they charge a timeout and still don't review.

 

[upstater1]

I don't think he's allowed to it's up to the booth and if Bill throws his flag they charge a timeout and still don't review.

??
You can definitely challenge a fumble call. Right?
What are you referring to?

 

[Mack Herron]

??
You can definitely challenge a fumble call. Right?
What are you referring

since all turnovers like lost fumbles and interceptions trigger an automatic booth review, when an offensive team attempts a fourth-down conversion but fails, the coach will not be allowed to challenge the failed attempt because officials in the booth will examine the play by default.

NFL rule changes for 2023: Here's what they are and what they mean

Ahead of the 2023 season, the NFL's competition committee adopted two rule changes and two points of clarification to existing rules.

www.usatoday.com