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Patriots Seven Round Mock Draft 3.0


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Patriots Seven Round Mock Draft 3.0

Mark Morse

For my 3rd Mock Draft I am using a 3rd different Mock Simulator. This time I am using the free Mock Simulator from Pro Football Focus (PFF.com). Although this Mock Simulator allows trades. I forced myself not to make any trades.

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Is OT really a 1st round need?

I'm concerned no LB until the 6th round.

I just read a CBS Mock that had Pats trading up to #18 to take Justin Herbert. That strikes me as ridiculous as he is in the top 6 IMO. It seems you're a Stidham man as you don't have a QB being drafted until round six.

NFL.com has Pats picking QB Jordan Love at #23 even suggesting they might have to trade up to get him, idiots.
 
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Observation: I think I have seen Dalton Keene to the Pats in every single 7 round mock I have seen. Interesting.
 
This mock is better than last one. I doubt Becton will last that long. Only issue is his weight. He's a beast among beasts. Pro Bowler for sure.
The pick I am meh on is Wallace, the Safety. Depends on who else was available but I'm not sold on him and think there should be a better option.
 
How long is the list of those mocked at 23 that will never last that long. We have now added Becton. And sure, we should jump on Becton if he is there, just as we would with several other top 15 rated picks.
 
How long is the list of those mocked at 23 that will never last that long. We have now added Becton. And sure, we should jump on Becton if he is there, just as we would with several other top 15 rated picks.
Indubitably Cousin,

25% The odds at BB Sticking at #23: PLAN A . A prime example of standing pat is if said player of top 15 value pops up at #23.
BUT, You would have to look at Teams Drafting before you to understand they have similar needs and would not pass up Becton (just as one example)

25%Trading up PLAN B: This is where you would use your Draft capital to perhaps maneuver to get a player such as Becton if the trade was realistic.
PLAN B part 2: If BB and the organization feel that a package of picks for Tua or Herbert was worth extended capital this year and a mortgage of a top pick in 2021, then I guess it was worth it. Knowing the Pats history, they do not Draft early. This would be Josh and Bill discussing the future Patriot hierarchy. If BB tells Josh say.....three more years, then Tua or Herbert are being groomed for Josh, not BB.

50% Trading down PLAN C: This is the most logical. The Patriots have at least 4 Teams who could have an interest in pick #23. Mostly those not in the first Round now except Seattle.

These might be the Bears, The Colts (would they trade?), The Rams and Seattle with two second-round picks.

I think the sweet zone is Round 2.

The Targets IMO (bait) would be perhaps a remaining top WR or a QB like Jordan Love (5th year value) The Bears and Colts most likely for Love to get back into the first round.

Another possibility would be the Titans for Jordon Love to move up to #23 because they know the Pats might have suitors. After Tannehill they have nada.
As example:
Our #23 for the Titans #29 plus a swap of picks: The Titans second-rounder #61 with our #87 going back to Nashville. That gives us a second-rounder we were missing. A few points on the Draft chart in our favor.
DW Toys
 
Indubitably Cousin,

25% The odds at BB Sticking at #23: PLAN A . A prime example of standing pat is if said player of top 15 value pops up at #23.
BUT, You would have to look at Teams Drafting before you to understand they have similar needs and would not pass up Becton (just as one example)

25%Trading up PLAN B: This is where you would use your Draft capital to perhaps maneuver to get a player such as Becton if the trade was realistic.
PLAN B part 2: If BB and the organization feel that a package of picks for Tua or Herbert was worth extended capital this year and a mortgage of a top pick in 2021, then I guess it was worth it. Knowing the Pats history, they do not Draft early. This would be Josh and Bill discussing the future Patriot hierarchy. If BB tells Josh say.....three more years, then Tua or Herbert are being groomed for Josh, not BB.

50% Trading down PLAN C: This is the most logical. The Patriots have at least 4 Teams who could have an interest in pick #23. Mostly those not in the first Round now except Seattle.

These might be the Bears, The Colts (would they trade?), The Rams and Seattle with two second-round picks.

I think the sweet zone is Round 2.

The Targets IMO (bait) would be perhaps a remaining top WR or a QB like Jordan Love (5th year value) The Bears and Colts most likely for Love to get back into the first round.

Another possibility would be the Titans for Jordon Love to move up to #23 because they know the Pats might have suitors. After Tannehill they have nada.
As example:
Our #23 for the Titans #29 plus a swap of picks: The Titans second-rounder #61 with our #87 going back to Nashville. That gives us a second-rounder we were missing. A few points on the Draft chart in our favor.
DW Toys

As someone pointed out, the issue is whether anyone will give us reasonable value for a tradedown. What players are worth 2 picks after the following 20 are gone (plus a couple of more).

LIKELY TO BE GONE BY 23 (20)
4 QB's
4 OL's
4 WR's
3 DL's (Young, Brown, Kinlaw)
1 LB (Simmons)
4 DB's (Okudah, Henderson, Fulton, McKinney)
 
Indubitably Cousin,

25% The odds at BB Sticking at #23: PLAN A . A prime example of standing pat is if said player of top 15 value pops up at #23.
BUT, You would have to look at Teams Drafting before you to understand they have similar needs and would not pass up Becton (just as one example)

25%Trading up PLAN B: This is where you would use your Draft capital to perhaps maneuver to get a player such as Becton if the trade was realistic.
PLAN B part 2: If BB and the organization feel that a package of picks for Tua or Herbert was worth extended capital this year and a mortgage of a top pick in 2021, then I guess it was worth it. Knowing the Pats history, they do not Draft early. This would be Josh and Bill discussing the future Patriot hierarchy. If BB tells Josh say.....three more years, then Tua or Herbert are being groomed for Josh, not BB.

50% Trading down PLAN C: This is the most logical. The Patriots have at least 4 Teams who could have an interest in pick #23. Mostly those not in the first Round now except Seattle.

These might be the Bears, The Colts (would they trade?), The Rams and Seattle with two second-round picks.

I think the sweet zone is Round 2.

The Targets IMO (bait) would be perhaps a remaining top WR or a QB like Jordan Love (5th year value) The Bears and Colts most likely for Love to get back into the first round.

Another possibility would be the Titans for Jordon Love to move up to #23 because they know the Pats might have suitors. After Tannehill they have nada.
As example:
Our #23 for the Titans #29 plus a swap of picks: The Titans second-rounder #61 with our #87 going back to Nashville. That gives us a second-rounder we were missing. A few points on the Draft chart in our favor.
DW Toys
I really like the Titans trade. It fills the need for a 2nd rounder. But trading down from the #29 position, if we don't see value there, would add even more 2nd day prospects.
 
As someone pointed out, the issue is whether anyone will give us reasonable value for a tradedown. What players are worth 2 picks after the following 20 are gone (plus a couple of more).

LIKELY TO BE GONE BY 23 (20)
4 QB's
4 OL's
4 WR's
3 DL's (Young, Brown, Kinlaw)
1 LB (Simmons)
4 DB's (Okudah, Henderson, Fulton, McKinney)
If that is the case, and I think that what you wrote is realistic, then if would be very cool if the 2nd best LB would be available, since LB is clearly a need.

I DON'T want to see a DB taken in the first 2 rounds.
 
I don't see a trade-up as a likely scenario. Though we have 12 picks, 6 of them are between 195 and 241 and our (3) 3rd rounders are between 87 and 100. Those are not strong draft power rankings.
I also don't see BB using next year's high picks (even though we have 3 comps picks in rounds 3 and 4) to use as bait. We're not sure, and BB may not be as well, what our record will be next year so I'm pretty sure the 1st 2 picks are off the table unless BB HIGHLY values a player.
 
As someone pointed out, the issue is whether anyone will give us reasonable value for a tradedown. What players are worth 2 picks after the following 20 are gone (plus a couple of more).

LIKELY TO BE GONE BY 23 (20)
4 QB's
4 OL's
4 WR's
3 DL's (Young, Brown, Kinlaw)
1 LB (Simmons)
4 DB's (Okudah, Henderson, Fulton, McKinney)

Cousin, I think the overhyped Jordan Love is the focal point to most Teams mentioned because of the 5th year.

I enjoy Trades as we all know ad nauseam. I would have a few of Trades in mind that could work using pick #23:

1-Tampa Bay> Our #23 and our #100 ( 860 points) for TE O.J. Howard and their #13 in Round 2 (450)= This gives Tampa Bay the second round (value) they seek for Howard via the ole' Trade Value Chart.
Pats get O.J. Howard and a high second-round pick.....I'm in!

2-As I had put in my 12th Annual Trade-A Rama 7 round Draft> Our #23 to L.A. Rams from New England: (They get Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU) and Rams also get our 3rd Round #98.

Pats get "2" 2nd rounders #52,#57 and TE Tyler Higbee ( mid 3rd round value according to the Draft Value Chart)

https://www.therams.com/video/tyler-higbee-s-best-plays-what-will-2020-have-in-store

3-Raiders>Our #23 for QB Derek Carr and "2" 3rd round picks

Pats get QB Derek Carr (70% completion, 21 TDs, over 4,000 yards and over 100 QBR, who was throwing to as crappy receiving corps as we had) and "2" third Round Raider picks #80 and #81 (this equates to a mid second-round pick for Carr according to the difference of points on the Draft Value Chart). Gruden and Mayock just got Mariota......... and love 1st round picks. They seem indifferent to Carr. Carr is only 29. He's NOT spectacular but he is a good value in this trade and has proven success, unlike any Draft pick.



4-Carolina> Our 23 for the Panthers pick #38, WR Curtis Samuel and a swap of third-round picks.

Pats get youngster WR Samuel at 5'11" and 194 lbs with 4.3 speed who is only 23 years old. 54 Receptions and 6 TDs in 2019 from a mediocre QB the Panthers just traded away. Perhaps a bigger Brandin Cooks. But he might be a year rental unless you can redo his deal.
The Pats also get high second Round pick #38 and a swap of our pick #87 to gain the Panthers pick #69. The Trade chart says the difference is 210 points or the equivalent to a lower third-round pick (150 points) for Samuel.

https://www.panthers.com/video/curtis-samuel-top-5-plays-2019-highlights

So 4 trades we can make with pick #23 that involve actual bodies with NFL experience and success over "definite-maybe" Draft picks.

Thoughts?
DW Toys

 
Not sure that a RT-Only, as good as he is, is the best way to use the 23rd overall...

#87 seems a little too rich for Wallace, whom I like...#125 seems a lot closer to his value...

Don't like the Hopkins or the Proche picks...If you already drafted a Slash player like Bowden, then you don't need to draft another one like Proche...and Hopkins's hands suck.

Love the Dalton Keene pick.

Don't like Antoine Brooks, and after drafting K'Von Wallace, we don't need him either...

I like Mychal Walker, but we might be able to get him with one of our 7ths...

Not a fan of the last 3 picks either, for obvious reasons...
 
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If that is the case, and I think that what you wrote is realistic, then if would be very cool if the 2nd best LB would be available, since LB is clearly a need.

I DON'T want to see a DB taken in the first 2 rounds.

Murray, Queen and Chaisson are all LB choices that have been valued by some at around 23.
 
Becton = Eric flowers.
 
I would prefer to take one [kicker] as an UDFA.

That, of course, is not how Belichick operates. I will be shocked if he waits until the 7th round to draft a kicker; I'd be surprised if he waits until the sixth round.
 

3-Raiders>Our #23 for QB Derek Carr and "2" 3rd round picks

There is basically zero chance of this happening, because Carr has almost $19M in salary for 2020 alone.
 
Indubitably Cousin,

25% The odds at BB Sticking at #23: PLAN A . A prime example of standing pat is if said player of top 15 value pops up at #23.
BUT, You would have to look at Teams Drafting before you to understand they have similar needs and would not pass up Becton (just as one example)

25%Trading up PLAN B: This is where you would use your Draft capital to perhaps maneuver to get a player such as Becton if the trade was realistic.
PLAN B part 2: If BB and the organization feel that a package of picks for Tua or Herbert was worth extended capital this year and a mortgage of a top pick in 2021, then I guess it was worth it. Knowing the Pats history, they do not Draft early. This would be Josh and Bill discussing the future Patriot hierarchy. If BB tells Josh say.....three more years, then Tua or Herbert are being groomed for Josh, not BB.

50% Trading down PLAN C: This is the most logical. The Patriots have at least 4 Teams who could have an interest in pick #23. Mostly those not in the first Round now except Seattle.

These might be the Bears, The Colts (would they trade?), The Rams and Seattle with two second-round picks.

I think the sweet zone is Round 2.

The Targets IMO (bait) would be perhaps a remaining top WR or a QB like Jordan Love (5th year value) The Bears and Colts most likely for Love to get back into the first round.

Another possibility would be the Titans for Jordon Love to move up to #23 because they know the Pats might have suitors. After Tannehill they have nada.
As example:
Our #23 for the Titans #29 plus a swap of picks: The Titans second-rounder #61 with our #87 going back to Nashville. That gives us a second-rounder we were missing. A few points on the Draft chart in our favor.
DW Toys

there is also the possibility (could see the titans do it again) to jump the patriots in the draft by trading picks with the team before Pats 23rd pick is on the clock, just in case you want the 21st, 22nd pick to jump NE for QB and don't want to trade with BB

of course there are always two needed for a trade, but it would not be the first time someone is jumping infront of the Pats
 
Id be very happy. You're not going to fill every need or make everyone satisfied.

Becton - I love Cannon but with injuries, age and inconsistent play you can see it. Added cap relief. Tough call but look at the big picture.
Mason & Becton would be absolutely devastating. I'm smiling thinking about those two mauling anything in front of them. If we kept Thuney our OL looks legit. Wynn, Thuney, Mason and Becton could be special. I think our running game could be special too. This is a big picture type pick.

Both are ++ nasty run blockers. Enjoy being mean.
Becton has levers for arms and just forklifts defenders out the way. No one is going to wanna go toe to toe with him straight up.
Easy mover for his size. He's on the 2nd level with 2 steps. His sheer size & length create space. Even without making 100% contact he gets the job done.

His weight will always be an issue but it's not something to stress about. I doubt he goes on some magic diet and loses 40 pounds and keeps it off. He might, hopefully it happens but what's the likelihood of that? Again not something to stress over. Support him. Get him in a program, hopefully he hires a chef/nutritionist/trainer etc and goes the extra mile. Start small goals. It's most likely going to be an up/down battle so accept that and just work around it and make a difference when you can.

Needs some work in pass pro but he's made improvements year to year. And made strides throughout the season in 2019. Quick, light feet. Smooth getting to his spot. Again he moves like he's 310-320. At times he'll have a problem staying balanced, making everything work together. Will get a little too front loaded. Kinda high cut that leads to some bending issues but there's enough there to work through. It's consistency, discipline stuff with a monster so again you'll likely always have some problems there. Nothing major you have make wholesale changes. Smooth out some edges here and there.
Strike placement is another point where he could improve. Heavy hands. Very effective. When he hits you, you stop or redirect. He makes it count. A bit inconsistent with placement of his strikes but this is probably one of the easier things he can fix imo.

Just an eraser out on the edge. I mean you see the land he occupies and effects.

Deals with power very well.

With some added technique he be a nightmare.


I've liked Wallace for a while now. Vg tape imo. Don't think we've drafted a Clemson player under Bill, I think theres a small chance he really likes Wallace.

Wallace is limited to an extent bc he's not going to be a strict SAF or Box S. He'll primarily play nickel and spot duties elsewhere. Could def see him playing ST.
If he's not the best tackling S in the class it's very close. Very sure, precise, observant tackler in space. Can make the big hit but doesn't sell out. + closing speed. He's very reliable here.

Saw some real improvements in terms of trusting himself this past year. MOF, underneath he really clicked & closed. Again closing speed really stood out.

It seems I like him more than Mark in man coverage. I think he has what it takes to be a really good defender in both man & zone. He's a + athlete with improving instincts.

Saw him cover a bunch of "would be" big plays and drop a few INTs. Just stood out in a lot of ways.

Like Mark said you can blitz him. He's an aggressive player that likes that role. He just flys to the QB/ball. And this would be great value imo. I have a low 2nd on him.


Bowden is a tough eval bc of the situation he was placed in this last year. Forced into playing QB. Obviously took reps away from him at WR, which he needed but he shined in these unique circumstances.
Electric with the ball in his hands. Twitchy, sudden, can cut back on the move and keep his speed. + Yac, get the ball in his hands. Showcased plenty of his talent there this year.

Looks to have good hands that want to extend and pluck the ball out the air.

Tough, tough player. Contact balance. Won't go down easy.

Will be primarily a slot WR but can help with returns. Think motion, screens to get him touches too.

Had trouble with press at times although again he'll be a slot guy mostly. Could work on his release, hands at the los. Definitely could extend his route tree/running.
Lots to work with though. Football player through and through. Again good value, I have a 3rd on him.


Fotu is still a work in progress but could be a vg rotation piece. Base & sub package on limited snaps imo. Not sure you're getting a full time space eating monster but again I see some potential on a snap count, at least at first.

I love his explosiveness. Very limited rusher but once and a while he puts some really nice reps on tape. Will explode, step laterally to shoot/slant. Bully his way through. He could be a handful late in games at his size.

Really flashes his length and good hand usage. Locking out and standing his ground. Very tough to move.

Not going to be making a ton of plays away from his gap. Won't be chasing backside or crossing face. More of a north/south, side-step & explode kinda player.

Has the size, make-up & skill set to be a good piece on a defense.


Hopkins is a strict flex. Won't ever be an inline killer. Not a physical bully or someone looking for contact.
Think he has potential as a stalk blocker in space.

Really shines in the open field though. You can move him around a bit. Detached, backfield, slot. Get him running up the seam. In space let him work.

Decent body control, tough at catch point. Not a soft player just not a physical presence.

Inconsistent hands. Double catcher but occasionally will come up with some nice grabs.

Won't be a legit TE1 but def could be a real weapon on the 53.


I love Proche. He's so fun and such a dog on the field. He'll have his work cut out but I didn't see a diverse route tree or nuanced rr but he can absolutely improve there. I'd love to see him work with a guy like Edleman. Proche is a bit sloppy, choppy at the top of his route. Wasted steps. Definitely could utilize his quicks a lot better even though he's not terribly sudden to begin with. Not that twitchy or fast.

He's a dog though. No one wants the ball more. Just flys towards the leather. ++ Hand/Eye coordination. Big time contested catch player. Knack for huge plays. + body control. Catch through contact. + tracking.

Rewrote the record books at SMU

Has to fine tune his rr but again he's a football player. Makes it happen. Should be noted he was down on the list in terms of testing for us. Didn't light it up but shines everywhere else.


Conversely Keene was TE2 in testing behind Trautman. Aced the combine big time. I highly doubt Kyed knew who Keene was 4 months ago so I take his Kittle comp with a grain of salt.

Still learning the position. Former QB/RB and his experience shows up in certain areas imo. Working off leverage, seeing a potential soft spot. Looks to have a really good football IQ.

Instant mover, big powerful strides. Could be a problem in the open field for both S/LB. Just takes off.
Showed nice aggression blocking in space. Intense, + effort. Good tracking the ball at times. Could be a big time versatile piece. Like Hopkins might not be a TE1 but legit piece on a 53.


We we're talking to Brooks at the SR bowl for a while after one of the practices. Brooks is a versatile, rotation piece in the right spots. I figure red zone, inside the 50, short field, down & distance type player. Again doesn't havr the skill set to be a full time player but brings some really good qualities to the table. 4 down player. Locker room guy.

Walker was another prospect that tested very well in the areas we like. Top 5 in that area. Switched from playing outside to inside this past season. Light at 230 so he has to stay clean but he has + awareness, discipline, smarts & toughness for his size. Understands what's coming in front of him in terms of blocking, fronts. Good tackler. Can slip and stay clean through traffic.


I loved Stanley a few years ago. Really thought he had some big Ben to his game but just never really progressed despite having good coaching, OL, weapons around him. At times flashes really soft, subtle touch on some of his passes but too far and few in between. I'll definitely take a shot at this stage though. Stanley will probably never be a starter but has what it takes to help a team as a backup.

Murphy also tested very well at the drills we favor for OL. Really liked him coming into the year as a small school prospect. Didn't disappoint.
+ short area quicks, movements. Big time potential on the move, in space. Instantly on LBs. At times he looks textbook.
Quick out stance, gets and plays with leverage, + Hand placement & technique. Plays with vg pad level.

Has to stick with working and fighting for inside position. Very effective but inconsistent strikes. Not a huge deal at all.
Will have to get stronger for sure.
Local kid. Versatile. Smart. Love the value here.
 
I don't follow college ball so these threads are valuable to me. I'm not a big fan of the draft though. The draft is such a crap shoot that I think more picks is best.

To illustrate my point I'm going use the value chart that many here use. I'm going to compare the teams with the #1, #16 and #32 picks and see what the value difference is between them.

Adding up all the value points for each team gives us #1=4046.1, #16=1746.5 & #32=1067.4

The difference between #32 and #1, 2978.7, is just a hair less than the top pick. Between #32 and #16 it's about the same as the 23 pick.

After the 1st round picks come out of the equation for #1 and #16 the total value left for each team is the same, but the team with the last pick will end up with one more player.

That means that there's really only a one player difference between the last team and the first team picking and that can be made up in other ways beside the draft.
 
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