Patriots rank #2 in chances of making the postseason per Football Outsiders

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

86.4% second ranked in terms of chances to make the playoffs,second only to Denver.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

I still don't see all the love for Denver so much,sure they have a bunch of talent on offense,but their secondary and their front 7 look anything but dominant.

Another thing is the Jets are rated second in the AFCE and given a 26% chance of making the postseason???... lol ..more like 2%

 

[dales804]

But PFF told us via ESPN The Rag that they have like a 46% chance...

 

[mgteich]

The jets may be the worst team in the NFL (some media have them there). I'd have Oakland there, but that's just me. It is hard to take anyone seriously when they have the jets at 26%.
They are a 3-1 shot? Wow!

As far as Denver and the pats, we both have truly terrible divisions. Ours in worse, but we have a tougher schedule.

 

[Rob0729]

86.4% second ranked in terms of chances to make the playoffs,second only to Denver.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

I still don't see all the love for Denver so much,sure they have a bunch of talent on offense,but their secondary and their front 7 look anything but dominant.

Another thing is the Jets are rated second in the AFCE and given a 26% chance of making the postseason???... lol ..more like 2%

I don't get the love for Denver either. Yes, they are a top team. But if you look at all the preseason predictions coming out this past week, they are overwhelming favorites to go to the Super Bowl and one of the two teams that are favorites to win it. I think they have a shot, but they have as many holes or more holes than most.

It seems everyone has fallen in love with the Welker addition and overlooking the many, many holes the Broncos have. The only places I think they they are really strong at is receiver and QB. None of their RBs impressed this preseason and Knowsean Moreno was their best RB this preseason. The interior of their o-line is shakey at best (they had to do a lot of max protection this preseason to counter it which will keep Decker, Welker, and Thomas off the field together a lot if they have to do it all season). They lost their best pass rusher for six games and their second best to the Ravens. Their secondary is a mess and injured. Their LBs outside of Miller are so-so. Their d-line is decent, but nothing special.

If you take away their receivers and Manning and just put average players in their place, you would be talking about a 4-5 win team. Manning and his receivers can make a big difference in a bunch of games especially in a weak division, but I don't know if it is enough in the playoffs.

 

[Rob0729]

Speaking of these ranking though, I think the Pats and Broncos are so high for their chances of making the playoffs because of their divisions as much or more than the quality of each team. I think the Pats have more of a challenge based on their rankings than the Broncos do (the Dolphins). I think that is the difference.

 

[mgteich]

Please give a source for the idea that Denver is an overwhelming favorite. From what I see Denver is a 7-1 shot while SF is a 7.5-1 shot, with 3 three other teams between 8.5-1 and 14-1 (half as likely as Denver).

For me, this all seems right. The SB is up for grabs, with 6 teams being the most likely to come out on top. IMHO, which is "most" likely is only of interest to bettors and for bulletin board material.

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I just looked up Vegas insiders

Denver Broncos 7/1
San Francisco 49ers 15/2
Seattle Seahawks 17/2
New England Patriots 10/1
Green Bay Packers 12/1
Atlanta Falcons 14/1

I don't get the love for Denver either. Yes, they are a top team. But if you look at all the preseason predictions coming out this past week, they are overwhelming favorites to go to the Super Bowl and one of the two teams that are favorites to win it. I think they have a shot, but they have as many holes or more holes than most.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

86.4% second ranked in terms of chances to make the playoffs,second only to Denver.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

I still don't see all the love for Denver so much,sure they have a bunch of talent on offense,but their secondary and their front 7 look anything but dominant.

Another thing is the Jets are rated second in the AFCE and given a 26%
chance of making the postseason???... lol ..more like 2%

Denver will undoubtedly do well in the regular season - Manning usually does.

Their defensive backfield remains suspect. Von Miller is out for the first 6 games, and they are minus Dumervil. Shaun Phillips may offer some relief, but don't really look for much of a pass rush from these guys.

For a goodly part of the season, Manning will find the novelty of Welker a benefice unseen to him since Reggie Wayne, but that backfield has real problems protecting the ball. If coach Fox isn't concerned about this, he really should be.

If Montee Ball doesn't deliver the goods, they'll really become a one-dimensional team, and we've seen in the past just how well that works out.

Can they win 12 games? Maybe. That division lacks, uhhh...depth, if you will, but some dark horses (KC?) could surprise. We'll get an early peak at what their season might be like on the 15th when they visit the Giants.

Me? I think they make the playoffs, of course, but I look for another early exit.

They' re good, but they're not that good.

 

[PatsFan2]

Is Football Outsiders putting our young WR's in Canton already? Can we see em play real Football game before we start making bold predictions.

 

[Deus Irae]

...I still don't see all the love for Denver so much,sure they have a bunch of talent on offense,but their secondary and their front 7 look anything but dominant...

• They play the AFCW, which is pretty much like the Patriots playing the AFCE until some second team in either division proves otherwise.
• They've got the NFCE, which is probably the weakest division in the NFC, in terms of top end teams.
• They face the AFCS, which should guarantee them at least 3 wins.
• They've only got 3 'tossup' games all season: Patriots, Texans, Ravens

 

[Oswlek]

Is Football Outsiders putting our young WR's in Canton already? Can we see em play real Football game before we start making bold predictions.

Uhhhhh... it's part of their preseason predictions that they do every year. Should they leave NE out because they have new receivers? :confused4:

As for the Jets prediction, even the writers gladly admit that sometimes the numbers spit out odd results, and they can't change them to fit what they think or else is just becomes another opinion piece. That said, they've nailed more than enough of them to find out what they see rather than casually dismissing it.

 

[PatsFan2]

• They play the AFCW, which is pretty much like the Patriots playing the AFCEuntil some second team in either division proves otherwise.
• They've got the NFCE, which is probably the weakest division in the NFC, in terms of top end teams.
• They face the AFCS, which should guarantee them at least 3 wins.
• They've only got 3 'tossup' games all season: Patriots, Texans, Ravens

How people forget even with the Colts Peyton is known to thrive off a easy Scehedule.

 

[Oswlek]

• They play the AFCW, which is pretty much like the Patriots playing the AFCEuntil some second team in either division proves otherwise.
• They've got the NFCE, which is probably the weakest division in the NFC, in terms of top end teams.
• They face the AFCS, which should guarantee them at least 3 wins.
• They've only got 3 'tossup' games all season: Patriots, Texans, Ravens

Agreed. Just that schedule alone gives Denver the best chances at making the playoffs.

 

[PatsFan2]

Jim Mora Playoffs? Playoffs?

Coors Light "Playoffs" - YouTube

 

[Deus Irae]

Agreed. Just that schedule alone gives Denver the best chances at making the playoffs.

Yep.... by comparison, the Patriots play

• AFCE (pretty much the same as the AFCW, unless the Chiefs/Dolphins change things)
• AFCN, which should be clearly better than the AFCS
• NFCS, which has the Saints and Falcons at the top
• 4 'tossup' games, and one that could be (Broncos, Ravens, Falcons, Texans, maybe Saints)

 

[Rob0729]

Please give a source for the idea that Denver is an overwhelming favorite. From what I see Denver is a 7-1 shot while SF is a 7.5-1 shot, with 3 three other teams between 8.5-1 and 14-1 (half as likely as Denver).

For me, this all seems right. The SB is up for grabs, with 6 teams being the most likely to come out on top. IMHO, which is "most" likely is only of interest to bettors and for bulletin board material.

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I just looked up Vegas insiders

Denver Broncos 7/1
San Francisco 49ers 15/2
Seattle Seahawks 17/2
New England Patriots 10/1
Green Bay Packers 12/1
Atlanta Falcons 14/1

Not talking betting odds. I am talking "expert" predictions:

USA TODAY Sports' 2013 NFL predictions
Experts' NFL predictions for 2013 - ESPN
Experts' NFL predictions for 2013 - ESPN
Experts' NFL predictions for 2013 - ESPN
NFL predictions 2013 -- Super Bowl XLVIII, awards, New England Patriots - NFL - SI.com
PFT?s 2013 season predictions | ProFootballTalk
2013 NFP Super Bowl predictions | National Football Post
Breaking Down the ?Boys: Predicting 2013 NFL Standings, Playoffs, Super Bowl, and Awards | Dallas Cowboys Blog


An overwhelming majority have them winning the AFC and they are up there with Seattle for winning the Super Bowl.

I agree that this season there is no clear favorite especially in the AFC. The national media seems to disagree and the consensus is that the Broncos have the AFC locked up.

 

[goheels22002]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Patriots have the highest odds of winning the Super Bowl among AFC teams.

However, it's unclear, statistically, how Danny Amendola's groin factored into this scientific calculation.

 

[Deus Irae]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Patriots have the highest odds of winning the Super Bowl among AFC teams. It's unclear, statistically, how Danny Amendola's groin factored into this scientific calculation.

I'm sure it's impact was limited...

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

• They play the AFCW, which is pretty much like the Patriots playing the AFCE until some second team in either division proves otherwise.
• They've got the NFCE, which is probably the weakest division in the NFC, in terms of top end teams.
• They face the AFCS, which should guarantee them at least 3 wins.
• They've only got 3 'tossup' games all season: Patriots, Texans, Ravens

Given the regular season Manning, despite a defensive downgrade I'd be somewhat surprised if they're not the one seed. Pats rookie growing pains and safety issues should give us the 3 or 4 seed, so with success we'll go to Denvah unless a Wildcard beats Denver in their 1st playoff game.

 

[Rob0729]

• They play the AFCW, which is pretty much like the Patriots playing the AFCE until some second team in either division proves otherwise.
• They've got the NFCE, which is probably the weakest division in the NFC, in terms of top end teams.
• They face the AFCS, which should guarantee them at least 3 wins.
• They've only got 3 'tossup' games all season: Patriots, Texans, Ravens

I don't know. The AFC West COULD be significantly better than the AFC East. KC could be a team that surprises a lot of people. The Chargers should be ok. The Raiders will be the worst team in football. The Jets and Bills might not have ten wins combined. The Dolphins could be a let down.

I think the NFC East does not have a dominant team, but they have three teams that could have 9 plus wins. It isn't a pushover division. It just doesn't have a legitimate Super Bowl contender like all the other NFC teams have.

I think the Texans and Colts are playoff caliber teams. The Titans are a team that has a potential to shock people. Not guaranteed, but they might be that team that has a suprisingly good year. The Jags suck.

Their schedule is still relatively easy, but not as easy as you make it out to be. They have about 6-8 games that could be tough thrown in with a bunch of cupcakes.

But for teams like the Broncos and the Patriots, it isn't how they do in the regular season, but how they do in the playoffs. I am not sold on any AFC team being built to run away with the AFC in the playoffs. All have their warts that can be exposed.

 

[Ivan]

Is Football Outsiders putting our young WR's in Canton already? Can we see em play real Football game before we start making bold predictions.

Name the set of receivers that Brady had a bad season with?