Our Offense - Decisions at OT and RB

[mgteich]

I expect that we will do the following before free agency starts
1) re-sign/extend Amendola
2) NOT give Bennett his bonus (he will be a free agent)
3) re-sign/extend Karras

The decisions are at OT (Solder, Fleming, Waddle)
and RB (Burkhead, Lewis and Bolden)

OFFENSE
QB - Brady, Hoyer
WR - Cooks, Edelman, Hogan, Amendola, Mitchell, Dorsett, Britt, Reedy
RB - Gillislie, White
TE - Gronkowski, Allen, Hollister
FB - Develin
OT - Cannon, Garcia
OG - Thuney, Mason, Croston
OC - Andrews, Karras

Once the decisions at OT and RB are made, this offense will be ready to go. My expectation/hope is that Solder and Burkhead are extended before the season starts. After that, we could sign Lewis. We could have upgrades. More likely is that we'll just bring in camp competition.

BOTTOM LINE
There will be little emphasis on the offense in free agency or the draft.

 

[supafly]

I think there’s a decent possibility that QB and OT may be pursued in the draft, and we could even see a flier taken at RB later on in the bottom rounds if Lewis isn’t re-signed and Gillislee ends up being thought of as camp fodder or even a potential release.

 

[DarrylS]

Did you leave out the TE position on purpose??

Will the Bennett decision hinge upon whether or not Gronkowski returns or pursues another career???

BB's affinity for TE's is well known, and do not see him with not going into the season without a pass catcher at that position.. unless he changes the whole offense. There is not a lot of choices in the FA market for TE's..

 

[Pape]

Did you leave out the TE position on purpose??

Will the Bennett decision hinge upon whether or not Gronkowski returns or pursues another career???

BB's affinity for TE's is well known, and do not see him with not going into the season without a pass catcher at that position.. unless he changes the whole offense. There is not a lot of choices in the FA market for TE's..

I'm pretty sure the Pats will get a commitment from Gronk before any decision on Marty is made. Not sure what his numbers are, or if he wants to play, but I'd be inclined to keep Bennett over Allen.

 

[maineman209]

I'm pretty sure the Pats will get a commitment from Gronk before any decision on Marty is made. Not sure what his numbers are, or if he wants to play, but I'd be inclined to keep Bennett over Allen.

The Pats need to decide about Bennett before March 14th or they owe him $2M, regardless if he ever plays football again or not.

Bennett turns 31 in about 3 weeks, is coming off shoulder surgery (extent unknown) and has already talked about retiring on more than one occasion.

Allen turns 28 in 10 days, is an excellent blocking TE and his contract could be easily extended to significantly reduce his cap hits for 2018 and 2019.

 

[maineman209]

Did you leave out the TE position on purpose??

Will the Bennett decision hinge upon whether or not Gronkowski returns or pursues another career???

BB's affinity for TE's is well known, and do not see him with not going into the season without a pass catcher at that position.. unless he changes the whole offense. There is not a lot of choices in the FA market for TE's..

When Gronk leaves (eventually), the offense will change, regardless. If the only available TEs can ...
A) catch but not block
-- or --
B) block but not catch

the offense will change even more. A TE who can catch but not block actually limits the offense since he's basically useless to the ground game and reduces the effectiveness of play-action. He's just a big, slow WR.

 

[Ivan]

As much as I want Lewis back I’m concerned about what he’s going to want. Hopefully it will be like Hightower and he will re-sign in NE. I expect Gillislee to be released and Burkhead to re-sign. I believe Solder will sign a 2 year deal to end his career in NE, but only one of Waddle and Fleming to return. As mgteich said the offseason should be dominated by defensive moves, and if Belichick holds true to form then the front seven will be his primary focus.

 

[maineman209]

3) re-sign/extend Karras

IIRC, Miguel tweeted a couple weeks back that Karras is actually signed through 2019, and that previous info that he's an ERFA this season was incorrect.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

What do you think of Hill as a Blount change of pace back.
I think Solder stays for a under market agreement.
Admendola is staying San Fran is the only other team I could see try to lure him away.

• Would love Landry here he would be damn near indefensible and him and Cooks and Edelman on the Same field good luck defenses on third down.

However I think San Fran pays him top dollar
Lewis I'm torn on the Patriots showed Lewis loyalty gave him a chance he didn't get anywhere else I think in the end he shows loyalty to the Pats.
Honestly Josh staying actually really helps the stay together team dynamic I believe.

 

[maineman209]

I think there’s a decent possibility that QB and OT may be pursued in the draft, and we could even see a flier taken at RB later on in the bottom rounds if Lewis isn’t re-signed and Gillislee ends up being thought of as camp fodder or even a potential release.

Just rumors at this point, but one or both of CJ Anderson, Jerrick McKinnon could become available as SFA. One of them could be a cheaper-than-Lewis (and NFL-experienced) backfill (both can catch).

As roster purges commence, more options may become available at RB. But I'd also expect at least a couple UDFA RBs on the 90-man. Spending the 4th or 6th on an RB maybe depends somewhat on how much experience remains on the RB corps.

From my perspective, the key re-signings for the Pats will be Solder and one of Waddle/Fleming. After that, Marquis Flowers and Amendola. Then Ebner, Bademosi, Bolden and Slater.

 

[Pape]

The Pats need to decide about Bennett before March 14th or they owe him $2M, regardless if he ever plays football again or not.

Bennett turns 31 in about 3 weeks, is coming off shoulder surgery (extent unknown) and has already talked about retiring on more than one occasion.

Allen turns 28 in 10 days, is an excellent blocking TE and his contract could be easily extended to significantly reduce his cap hits for 2018 and 2019.

Then we wait til March 14.

If I read Miguel's page right, there is an out in both Bennetts' & Allens' contract - so there would be no cap hit if either or both were to be released. 2018 and 2019 base salaries for Allen are ridiculously high - 4.5 & 6.9 million vs 3.6 and 5.6 for Bennett.

Dollar for dollar, Bennett is a better deal, and I would rather have him at 31 than Dwayne Allen at 28. Allens deal is too big in the back two years - so if you are going to extend him, he needs to significantly drop those base salaries. Moving forward without addressing it, that's a huge chunk of change to carve out of the slim cap room the Pats have to work with.

Besides, blocking tight ends are easier to find than catching tight ends.

However, it all does depend on 1. what Gronk's status for 2018 is 2. Whether or not Marty wants to play in 2018 3. If Allen wants to stay with a reworked lesser deal.

 

[mgteich]

I never consider the bottom rounds as a means of filling needs. Belichick will find players in those rounds, but there is no reason to believe that we can predict at what position. So, sure, Belichick takes flyers.

A QB somewhere is likely, but not a huge priority early.

I doubt that there will be better value than Waddle and Fleming available. Besides, if Solder is signed, we have our starters. And Garcia??

I think there’s a decent possibility that QB and OT may be pursued in the draft, and we could even see a flier taken at RB later on in the bottom rounds if Lewis isn’t re-signed and Gillislee ends up being thought of as camp fodder or even a potential release.

 

[maust]

It's hard to envision Gillislee being retained likewise with Bennett and Allen, at least under their existing contracts. Beyond that there's the question of what the cap hit will be to re-sign Solder before any of the other FA's contracts, beyond Amendola's, can reasonably be addressed.

 

[tasmlab]

I expect that we will do the following before free agency starts
1) re-sign/extend Amendola
2) NOT give Bennett his bonus (he will be a free agent)
3) re-sign/extend Karras

The decisions are at OT (Solder, Fleming, Waddle)
and RB (Burkhead, Lewis and Bolden)

OFFENSE
QB - Brady, Hoyer
WR - Cooks, Edelman, Hogan, Amendola, Dorsett, Britt, Reedy
RB - Gillislie, White
FB - Develin
OT - Cannon, Garcia
OG - Thuney, Mason, Croston
OC - Andrews, Karras

Once the decisions at OT and RB are made, this offense will be ready to go. My expectation/hope is that Solder and Burkhead are extended before the season starts. After that, we could sign Lewis. We could have upgrades. More likely is that we'll just bring in camp competition.

BOTTOM LINE
There will be little emphasis on the offense in free agency or the draft.

What's the fate of Mitchell in 2018?

 

[IllegalContact]

Draft Rashaad Penny, RB out of San Diego State

 

[mgteich]

Did you leave out the TE position on purpose??

Will the Bennett decision hinge upon whether or not Gronkowski returns or pursues another career???

BB's affinity for TE's is well known, and do not see him with not going into the season without a pass catcher at that position.. unless he changes the whole offense. There is not a lot of choices in the FA market for TE's..

yes, I forget TE; it is now fixed

The whole offense will not be changed with Gronkowksi, Allen and Hollister as our TE's. Yes, we could get an upgrade to Holister.

 

[maust]

Any list of WR's that doesn't include Mitchell would seem incomplete.

 

[mgteich]

I disagree on almost all of this, which is what makes these discussions fun.

I see no reason to cut GILLISLIE. On an given day, one RB is inactive. Burkhead and Lewis beat out Gillislie. I'm fine with having Gillislie as our #4 RB as he was this year.
After a year of learning the system, he will OK to have more responsibility, or not.

I also expect ALLEN to stay. Belichick will NOT give up on one of the top blocking TE's. If Gronk is injured, his role of blocker MUST be replaced. His role as a receiver is replaced by a combination of more targets to wide receivers and running backs.

I expect Bennett to retire. If not, I could see him renegotiating with us.

SOLDER's 2018 can be managed. It easily can be $5M or less. It is simply a matter of contract structure.

Finally, the decision on AMENDOLA in no way depends on Solder.

It's hard to envision Gillislee being retained likewise with Bennett and Allen, at least under their existing contracts. Beyond that there's the question of what the cap hit will be to re-sign Solder before any of the other FA's contracts, beyond Amendola's, can reasonably be addressed.

 

[mgteich]

Any list of WR's that doesn't include Mitchell would seem incomplete.

OK, I've added Mitchell. I did forget. However, that is because I don't see him as a major contributor going forward. Since he has a contract, he'll be in camp. Perhaps, he will be healthy and beat out Dorsett for the #5 position. In any case, he is good injury insurance.

 

[mgteich]

What's the fate of Mitchell in 2018?

If healthy, I would expect him to compete for the #5 WR position, if there is one, and be insurance against injury.