OT: NFL draft lottery to stop tanking?

[ctpatsfan77]

Great idea. It should start in 2019.

 

[BTTA]

Seems like a solution to a non existent problem.

I'm not seeing it as a problem, just a better method. Every year the NFL owners and management gets together to evaluate which rules to keep and which to change. They could just as easily decide to use a different system, not because of a problem, but because it makes things better. I didn't switch coconut oil for canola oil because there was a problem, but because it is better.

 

[patchick]

IMO a modest lottery -- say, equal chances for the bottom 3 teams -- could basically do no harm, and would likely do some good.

Yes, tanking is rare. But that's just because a draft with a QB who is projected as a sure-thing #1 pick from the start of the season is rare. When such a guy is out there, tanking does happen and I don't want to encourage it, or reward a team that does it.

(And yep, despite the Colts' failure to capitalize, Andrew Luck was a real reward. Would you rather have RGIII as your quarterback?)

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

The Jets would miraculously win the draft lottery every year, until Goodell is replaced.

It is truly amazing what the Patriots have done considering that their own pick hasn't been less than #21 in 17 years!

The fact that this is being brought up now, 3 months before the season is set to start, instead of say week 14 of the regular season is bad news for the NFL. People know that the Jets are already tanking this season. The only way to truly avoid tanking is a system that allows every team a shot at the #1 pick! If you follow the NBA's ping pong ball philosophy, if you finish with the worst record you get 32 ping pong balls, if you win the Superbowl you get one! Make the lottery for say the first 3 or 5 picks and then let the standings and playoff outcome determine the rest. You will still have the Browns and Jets getting top picks every year because they suck. But imagine how much better the league would be if once in a blue moon, a really good team snagged the #1 pick!

 

[varjao]

I agree that a lottery involving the top 5 teams in the draft is a better idea.

The whole problem is the #1 pick and all the expectations and marketability around it. Some teams like the Browns, all they have is their #1 pick. It's what tanking teams chase, you don't see teams chasing the #3 or #4 pick although they most likely guarantee you a franchise player. Usually from the #4 on you see teams cool in their positions waiting the chips fall and see what they got.

Some teams in the top 3 make absurd moves to get the #1 or #2 like it happened last year and this year. If a team has no guarantee they will get the #1 even though they suck, they may win a game or 2 they would throw out the window in the current system. And that's the RIGHT THING. If a team can win, they should win or at least lose trying. You can't have in the NFL fixed outcomes. In a few years we will see sportsbooks operating through stock exchanges, how is that going to reflect on the NFL if teams are losing on purpose?

I wasn't aware about the Bucanners throwing out the window a game in week 17 to get Winston (It's mentioned in the article in the first post), that's just something horrendous and cannot happen the way it did. They can't prove of course otherwise Lovie Smith should be banned from the NFL like Pete Rose was from MLB.

 

[bbobbo]

IMO a modest lottery -- say, equal chances for the bottom 3 teams -- could basically do no harm, and would likely do some good.

Yes, tanking is rare. But that's just because a draft with a QB who is projected as a sure-thing #1 pick from the start of the season is rare. When such a guy is out there, tanking does happen and I don't want to encourage it, or reward a team that does it.

(And yep, despite the Colts' failure to capitalize, Andrew Luck was a real reward. Would you rather have RGIII as your quarterback?)

would that reduce tanking, though? now if you're the 4th worst team, you have an incentive to lose to get into the lottery, and the bottom 3 teams have an incentive to keep losing to stay in the bottom 3.
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[Rusty Coupe]

Vegas is going to have to give a lot of 20 point spreads to equal out the number of people willing to take the Jete to make the money come out even. That puts the pressure on the casinos more than the bettors.

https://www.si.com/nfl/photos/2013/.../2013/10/14/biggest-point-spreads-nfl-history

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

would that reduce tanking, though? now if you're the 4th worst team, you have an incentive to lose to get into the lottery, and the bottom 3 teams have an incentive to keep losing to stay in the bottom 3.
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Exactly. A team goes into Week 17 knowing a win locks them in as the 4th overall pick and a loss gives them a chance at #1. Why try to win?

 

[varjao]

Vegas is going to have to give a lot of 20 point spreads to equal out the number of people willing to take the Jete to make the money come out even. That puts the pressure on the casinos more than the bettors.

https://www.si.com/nfl/photos/2013/.../2013/10/14/biggest-point-spreads-nfl-history

In College Football there is a lot of -17, -24 point spread, sometimes more. It's madness. In the NFL it's very rare to go more than 14, not talking about live betting of course.

 

[varjao]

Exactly. A team goes into Week 17 knowing a win locks them in as the 4th overall pick and a loss gives them a chance at #1. Why try to win?

Stretch the lottery to 5 or 6 top teams. A #6 pick team is what, a 5-11 team? That team might be willing to try to be a 6-10 or 7-9 team in order to build something for the next year. Building a winning culture is everything in the NFL, too bad these sucker teams don't have a clue what is like to have that in their organization.

But yeah, you can't cover all the bases, it's the short blanket dilemma.

 

[bbobbo]

Stretch the lottery to 5 or 6 top teams. A #6 pick team is what, a 5-11 team? That team might be willing to try to be a 6-10 or 7-9 team in order to build something for the next year. Building a winning culture is everything in the NFL, too bad these sucker teams don't have a clue what is like to have that in your organization.

But yeah, you can't cover all the bases, it's the short blanket dilemma.

really, you might as well say that any team that doesn't make the playoffs has a shot at the #1 pick. a team on the verge of making the playoffs won't try to tank for a small chance at the #1 pick.
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[Ring 6]

really, you might as well say that any team that doesn't make the playoffs has a shot at the #1 pick. a team on the verge of making the playoffs won't try to tank for a small chance at the #1 pick.
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I would be fine with that.

As I said earlier, imagine how much interest you would add to the draft if the first 20 picks were in a lottery and the lottery was drawn on the clock at the draft.

 

[BTTA]

I would be fine with that.

As I said earlier, imagine how much interest you would add to the draft if the first 20 picks were in a lottery and the lottery was drawn on the clock at the draft.

That would be a lot of fun, actually. But I don't see any reason to stop at 20. Why penalize successful teams? Why reward mediocrity?

Maybe the playoff teams could be put in the bowl, one at a time, after each pick.

 

[Dr Pain]

Just have a lottery of the bottom 5 teams for the first 5 picks. Would stop a suck for luck campaign

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

Just have a lottery of the bottom 5 teams for the first 5 picks. Would stop a suck for luck campaign

The Colts getting the #1 pick the year Luck was available is really the only good example of possible tanking in the past several decades, and an argument can be made that certain roster and game day decisions they made in 2011 weren't those of a team trying to lose every game.

And as it is, Luck has had a solid, injury filled career and the Colts have missed the playoffs 2 years in a row. How is this a huge problem for the league?

 

[Ivan]

Link:
NFL could stop tanking with a draft lottery

There's a lot of laughably awful things the NFL could do to kill their product and this would be right up near the top.

Also ask the Colts how tanking for Luck worked out.

Throwing a game is the worst crime there is in sports, throwing a season should get a team the death penalty. The Colts absolutely threw the season to get Luck, and Bill Pollian was the one who did it. The Colts QB's were beyond awful and they should have been desperate to bring a competent QB in, yet the Broncos cut Kyle Orton and the Colts were first in line on the waiver wire and didn't lift a finger to bring him in. By trying to lose out the Colts impacted the entire season and should have been punished for it by losing their next five first round picks. Pollian is a complete scumbag.

 

[Ivan]

The Colts getting the #1 pick the year Luck was available is really the only good example of possible tanking in the past several decades, and an argument can be made that certain roster and game day decisions they made in 2011 weren't those of a team trying to lose every game.

And as it is, Luck has had a solid, injury filled career and the Colts have missed the playoffs 2 years in a row. How is this a huge problem for the league?

They could have brought Orton in and passed. And Pollian was at Stanford in early September scouting Luck. Christ they even branded it. #SUCKFORLUCK

 

[patsinthesnow]

Everyone else has touched on it. Top 5 NBA draft picks are so crucial for landing legitimate talent.

Meanwhile in the NFL, you can get your star pass rusher in round 4, your shutdown CB as an UDFA, the best TE of all time in round 2, and the best player of all time in round 6.

Pretty much why the NFL is the best league & the Pats are so dominant. You don't need elite draft assets to get elite player assets whether it be through the draft or via trade like the NBA.

Jadeveon Clowney viewed as a once-in-a-decade NFL prospect

"Clowney is the best defensive prospect to come out of college football in at least the last 10 years, according to a survey of NFL personnel people conducted by Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com."

Would you trade mid-round pick Trey Flowers for the best defensive prospect in a decade after the season & SB he had (Flowers is also younger)? Meanwhile, about 22-24 NBA teams are stuck for the foreseeable future.

 

[Tunescribe]

Great idea. It should start in 2019.

I so hope you're right about the Green Beans tanking because everyone KNOWS that if they get the No. 1 pick they'll screw it up, either by picking the wrong guy or wrecking whoever becomes the franchise's (I use that term loosely) designated "savior."

 

[JetFan79]

I so hope you're right about the Green Beans tanking because everyone KNOWS that if they get the No. 1 pick they'll screw it up, either by picking the wrong guy or wrecking whoever becomes the franchise's (I use that term loosely) designated "savior."

Well it's at least glaringly obvious they're not trying to win at all costs. They've dumped all their top veterans in attempt to develop youth and save cap for the future.

Do I think the players will purposely tank?... no. No way will football players ever purposely tank. Though it seems all but inevitable unless Hackenberg is decent.

If Hack is decent, I could see a 6+ win season and I'd be thrilled with that outcome. Then we'd be able to draft n spend for 2018 w/o worrying about QB.

Btw, keep in mind, we don't need the top pick. Supposedly there are like 4 or 5 QBs in the 2018 draft that are better than any of the 2017 QBs.