OT: Dolphins might be closing in on a deal for Deshaun Watson (edit: or not)

[bresna]

I can't seem to find Watson's current contract situation. Is he getting paid to sit or is he getting fined a game check every week? Will his contract toll to next year or not?

If his 2021 contract tolls to 2022, he'll only get $10.5 Million next year. If it isn't tolling to 2022, his guaranteed salary next year is a whopping $35 Million and that would be for a guy who hasn't played in over a year by that time.

 

[Sciz]

I can't seem to find Watson's current situation. Is he getting paid to sit or is he getting fined a game check every week? Will his contract toll to next year or not?

If his 2021 contract tolls to 2022, he'll only get $10.5 Million next year. If it isn't tolling to 2022, his guaranteed salary next year is a whopping $35 Million and that would be for a guy who hasn't played in over a year by that time.

Watson is still getting paid, so his contract won't toll. Essentially, he and the Texans have agreed to an unofficial suspension where he stays on the active roster and still gets paid, but is "DNP - Not Injury Related" for every practice.

 

[bresna]

Watson is still getting paid, so his contract won't toll. Essentially, he and the Texans have agreed to an unofficial suspension where he stays on the active roster and still gets paid, but is "DNP - Not Injury Related" for every practice.

So whoever trades for him has to pay him $35 Million next year (that is guaranteed) and if they want to keep him, $20M in 2024, $32M in 2025 & $32M in 2026.

I wonder why the Texans didn't fine him this year? It's about the only tool they had available to them to try and force him to play. And if they did fine him, it would have caused his contract to toll and improved his trade value, as someone could have gotten him cheap next year if they had done that. Maybe Caserio was trying to be a nice guy and threw him an olive branch? If it was that, he certainly threw it back hard.

 

[Hyped]

Not sure why Miami would bother doing this trade right now. In my opinion, the Dolphins need to verify what they have in Tua first...and secondly, they need to determine what the NFL will do if they just activate Watson....I am thinking a 4 game suspension at minimum....or more likely the Commissioner's exempt list indefinitely.

The only reason Miami should do this is *if* the Texans offer a discount and there are no other bidding teams. IMO, the massage complaints will be settled by June/July, 2022....and by the time the 2022 camps open....nobody will remember nor care....except rival fans in the stands at road games.....

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Remember when folks here and elsewhere jonesed for Tua?

 

[MrTibbs]

Probably like a 2 game suspension

Brady got suspended for 4 games on allegations of improper amounts of air in footballs. If Watson gets anything less that would be a disgrace on unimaginable levels.

 

[MrTibbs]

Remember when folks here and elsewhere jonesed for Tua?

No, I don't remember. He never impressed me honestly speaking.

 

[sb1]

 

[venecol]

But this is why I would never touch Watson before his issues are resolved. Goodell could assure Stephen Ross that he will only give Watson a six game suspension or something like that but then in a month or two something explosive comes out about this and forces Goodell to give him a far harsher punishment. Or something with the Washington Team's sexual harassment case explodes and Goodell decides to make Watson a sacrificial lamb to show the league is tough on people who harass or assault women without Goodell being too harsh on one of the owners.

There is just way too much unknown here to risk what you would have to give up for Watson before all this plays out.

Do you really believe Ross is so fv&king dumb to proceed with this trade (if it's true) w/o doing due diligence on the status of the civil suits and criminal investigations? He's not going to get stuck with that monster contract w/o: i) knowing the status of suits, ii) knowing what the league will do, and iii) having an out if things don't pan out how they forsaw.

Come on man.

 

[venecol]

People love the religious. You're spot on.

It depends. Watson in Miami probably ends up in Santeria. Lmao

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

The Texans want 3 firsts and 2 seconds. If they get that, then they won the trade for sure, if they also use their own top 3 pick that lets them get their QB

 

[slifersd]

Brady got suspended for 4 games on allegations of improper amounts of air in footballs. If Watson gets anything less that would be a disgrace on unimaginable levels.

Yeah, but knowing Goddell...probably just gives Watson a small fine and call him a rascal then call it a day

 

[Rob0729]

Do you really believe Ross is so fv&king dumb to proceed with this trade (if it's true) w/o doing due diligence on the status of the civil suits and criminal investigations? He's not going to get stuck with that monster contract w/o: i) knowing the status of suits, ii) knowing what the league will do, and iii) having an out if things don't pan out how they forsaw.

Come on man.

They haven't even started discovery or depositions yet. How could Ross remotely have enough information to know the outcomes. Civil cases can change dramatically based on what comes out of the discovery phase. Watson could be vindicated or turned into the next Harvey Weinstein or Bill Cosby in the public opinion after that. And no amount of due diligence right now is going to give you insight about how that is going turn out.

And I seriously doubt any prosecutor is going to discuss a case with a team owner who is looking to trade for the subject of his or her open criminal investigation.

I think you are give Stephen Ross too much credit. There is no way of knowing the outcome of all of this. If there was, there would be other teams bidding on Watson. Do you think Ross is smart enough to investigate this and know that Watson should be back by say midseason next year for sure and people in the Eagles' organization, Broncos' organization, Panthers' organization, or whatever other team's organizations interested in trading for Watson either haven't thought to check or couldn't get the same information Ross has?

My take is Miami is desperate to get a franchise QB. They know Watson's value is depressed right now and there is no other team bidding on him. And they think it is worth the risk that he will be back by at least midseason next year to get him at a reduced rate. They probably feel somewhat confident or hopeful that Watson will probably get a shorter suspension with what they know, but they cannot know for sure and they are playing the odds that the situation won't change over time.

 

[Brotherblues]

Their reported last offer to the Texans right before the season was two firsts and Tua. So odds are that they will give up more than that. It is a bargain compared to what it could have been if Watson didn't have sexual assault/rape allegations against him, but it will still be a lot. And Watson most likely won't play this year and may not next year either.

That's the real question. If he doesn't play this year *or* next, and then comes back on the other side of 30 (I think he's 28 now?) and is all rusty for another year... at what point would the magic just be lost, never to be captured again?

 

[Rob0729]

That's the real question. If he doesn't play this year *or* next, and then comes back on the other side of 30 (I think he's 28 now?) and is all rusty for another year... at what point would the magic just be lost, never to be captured again?

He is only 26. Even if he misses all of this year and all of next, he will only be 28 when he gets back. Based on his playing style, there is no way he will be playing into his 40 and doubtful into his late 30s. But even if he misses all this year (very likely) and all of next (who knows?), he still should have at least 4-5 more years as a top QB.

I expect his window to be short because he relies so much on his physical talents, but would be that he will be playing until his late early 30s or mid 30s rather than late 30s or 40s.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

They haven't even started discovery or depositions yet. How could Ross remotely have enough information to know the outcomes. Civil cases can change dramatically based on what comes out of the discovery phase. Watson could be vindicated or turned into the next Harvey Weinstein or Bill Cosby in the public opinion after that. And no amount of due diligence right now is going to give you insight about how that is going turn out.

And I seriously doubt any prosecutor is going to discuss a case with a team owner who is looking to trade for the subject of his or her open criminal investigation.

I think you are give Stephen Ross too much credit. There is no way of knowing the outcome of all of this. If there was, there would be other teams bidding on Watson. Do you think Ross is smart enough to investigate this and know that Watson should be back by say midseason next year for sure and people in the Eagles' organization, Broncos' organization, Panthers' organization, or whatever other team's organizations interested in trading for Watson either haven't thought to check or couldn't get the same information Ross has?

My take is Miami is desperate to get a franchise QB. They know Watson's value is depressed right now and there is no other team bidding on him. And they think it is worth the risk that he will be back by at least midseason next year to get him at a reduced rate. They probably feel somewhat confident or hopeful that Watson will probably get a shorter suspension with what they know, but they cannot know for sure and they are playing the odds that the situation won't change over time.

That's why the trade comp will be lower than otherwise. If there's no longer risk with Watson's legal situation, do you really think the Dolphins would be the only team in serious talks to acquire a 26 year old superstar quarterback? Wait, and probably miss out. Strike now, and you have to take a risk. PFT had another article this morning suggesting Houston leaked the trade talks in hopes of another team coming in to increase trade compensation for Watson; so, obviously whatever Miami is offering isn't over the top.

Many teams are "desperate" to get a franchise QB. Miami would be taking a different path, but this way is still a more likely successful end result as opposed to hoping a draft pick will improve, hoping a guy like Sam Darnold will transform, etc. Watson is already at worst a top 10 QB.

If Watson's legal issues avalanche then Miami will have the same contractual options as Houston. They can attempt to void a lot of the money due to clauses about the player's off field conduct, criminal issues, etc. Sure, it's a risk that they'll be stuck with a lot of it, but of course they know that. And there may be some conditional draft comp as well.

Also, much of Watson's contract is base salary rather than signing bonus, so the team will not be on the hook for suspension games. If he's suspended a year, the team merely has to pay the pro-rated signing bonus of about $5M. He won't get the 30-35M in game checks. And the contract is structured so it's not that hard to break after 2022 (its only $11M to break after 2022 before the roster bonus hits).

 

[Brotherblues]

yep. Unless he gets the off the field act together he'll flame out.

Then Flo will get fired and he'll be back here as DC.

And Steve becomees HC of the Dolphins.

 

[Rob0729]

That's why the trade comp will be lower than otherwise. If there's no longer risk with Watson's legal situation, do you really think the Dolphins would be the only team in serious talks to acquire a 26 year old superstar quarterback? Wait, and probably miss out. Strike now, and you have to take a risk. PFT had another article this morning suggesting Houston leaked the trade talks in hopes of another team coming in to increase trade compensation for Watson; so, obviously whatever Miami is offering isn't over the top.

Many teams are "desperate" to get a franchise QB. Miami would be taking a different path, but this way is still a more likely successful end result as opposed to hoping a draft pick will improve, hoping a guy like Sam Darnold will transform, etc. Watson is already at worst a top 10 QB.

If Watson's legal issues avalanche then Miami will have the same contractual options as Houston. They can attempt to void a lot of the money due to clauses about the player's off field conduct, criminal issues, etc. Sure, it's a risk that they'll be stuck with a lot of it, but of course they know that.

I still think with so much uncertainty around his case, I wouldn't risk it. Reports are that Miami already offered two firsts and Tua for Watson. Tua is basically a throw away in the trade since he has little value to the Dolphins if they have Watson. But that is still a lot for Watson if he drags these cases out into next season and then ends up with a lengthy suspension.

There is a potential high reward for doing this especially if Watson is vindicated and gets no suspension from the league. But with a lot of uncertainties, I am not sure I would make that risk.

Let's look at a potential doomsday scenario. What if Watson accidentally admits to sexually assaulting one of these women in a deposition and then the DA decides to bring charges. The NFL may be forced to give a historic suspension. Of course this is a worst case, extremely unlikely scenario; but I am using it to make a point.

And to be perfectly honest I don't think the salary is the risk. It is the draft pick compensation. If the Dolphins mortgage their future for a guy in the worst case scenario ends up in jail, it will set them back for potentially a decade. The money is the least of their concern because a lot of it or most of it is not guaranteed by the Dolphins.

But then again, the way the Dolphins have wasted draft picks in recent years, does giving away two firsts really mean much to them?

EDIT: I replied to this post before you added the contract breakdown from Watson, but my point in this post is consistent with what the Dolphins will be on the hook for.

 

[oldrover]

Do you really believe Ross is so fv&king dumb to proceed with this trade (if it's true) w/o doing due diligence on the status of the civil suits and criminal investigations?

 

[Boston Boxer]

Not impressed with Watson to be honest. He never really elevated Houston into any kind of real contender and i doubt he does anything for the Dolphins (if he get to play at all).