OT: Carr officially released

[Rob0729]

Deshaun Watson set the standard for QB value, I guess, with multiple 1st round picks, so that's what Jackson would cost, but even though I get that good QBs are worth it, it's a franchise killer. I don't see the point in mortgaging your future like this.

This is one of many reasons that people around the league (and myself) want to see Watson totally flame out in Cleveland. Reports were most of the owners around the league were pissed at the Browns for this countract. And now they are trying to tell players this contract was an outlier and not the way teams are going to structure deals.

 

[crawhammer]

This is one of many reasons that people around the league (and myself) want to see Watson totally flame out in Cleveland.

That would be rather surprising. Watson had a 104.5 passer rating for the Texans behind a bad o-line and with limited weapons. Even after O'Brien threw Hopkins out with the trash, Watson had his best passing season in 2020. He's a very good running quarterback too. He struggled upon returning from his lengthy suspension however that was expected and now with a full regular lead up to the 2023 season he very likely will return to form. He's still only 27 too.

 

[Rob0729]

That would be rather surprising. Watson had a 104.5 passer rating for the Texans behind a bad o-line and with limited weapons. Even after O'Brien threw Hopkins out with the trash, Watson had his best passing season in 2020. He's a very good running quarterback too. He struggled upon returning from his lengthy suspension however that was expected and now with a full regular lead up to the 2023 season he very likely will return to form. He's still only 27 too.

The guy missed almost two years of football and played like crap when he came back. We have no idea how conditioned himself during his time off. There is no guarantee he will ever get back to be the guy he was.

 

[PatsFan2]

The guy missed almost two years of football and played like crap when he came back. We have no idea how conditioned himself during his time off. There is no guarantee he will ever get back to be the guy he was.

I think Watson is going to get back to that level Cleveland have very good Offensive talent.

 

[crawhammer]

The guy missed almost two years of football and played like crap when he came back. We have no idea how conditioned himself during his time off. There is no guarantee he will ever get back to be the guy he was.

I don't think there's ever a guarantee but, as you pointed out, Watson had an unusually long layoff, which certainly deteriorated his play in the short term. I'm confident he'll be a top 10 quarterback next season after a typical offseason with workouts and conditioning, etc.

 

[slash83]

They can't trade him since he isn't under contract.

Are you suggesting that they
1) franchise him at $45M
2) cut or restructure enough players to make up for having the $45M hit for him.
3) hope to trade him in July (one year contract) when he would likely sign the tag.
4) and THEM hope that you can use the freed up cap money on whatever is left.
===============
I am presuming that he would play be the rules and be FORCED to play a season for ONLY $45M after he signs his tag in July.

I’m not an expert in all of this but can’t they apply the tag on him then trade him after he signs it?

 

[Stu Pidassle]

I don't want the Pats to pursue any of the top paid QB's, even if they are super talented. Allocating so much of the cap to one player takes away too much from the rest of the team and sets the team up for failure if there is an injury. A quick search found multiple articles confirming my theory that QB salaries are inversely related to overall team success. While I think TB12's sacrifices are over stated, his willingness to play for a fair wage was very important to the long term success of the team.

 

[bresna]

The Raven can easily free up the money to do this with their top 5 cap guys. Including Cutting Calais Campbell and Kevin Zeitler to free up 12.7M by itself.
Ronnie Staley - 7.6M
Mark Andrews - 4M
Marlon Humphrey - 6.75M

12.7+7.6+4+6.75 = $31.05M freed up. Added to the 22.6M in cap space and that gives them 53.65M. Plenty to sign Draft picks and work out a long term deal for Jackson that will be far less than $45M of a cap hit.

Of course, this only matter if they don't get a long term deal done prior to the start of the league season.

From what I'm reading, and it may be wrong, it looks like after tagging Jackson ($45M) on March 7th, the Ravens would have to get under the salary cap by March 15th and they can only designate 2 players as "Post-June 1 release". I don't think your scenario would work. Most of the players you mention do not show any cap savings unless they are released with a Post-June 1 designation.

I still think the Ravens are screwed if they want to try and keep him on that franchise tag. And I think that if they want to tag/trade, they still only have a week to do it, and they'd have to find a team willing to do that with a one year $45M contract, as there is no way to force Jackson to negotiate a long term deal.

 

[mike_usagisan]

From what I'm reading, and it may be wrong, it looks like after tagging Jackson ($45M) on March 7th, the Ravens would have to get under the salary cap by March 15th and they can only designate 2 players as "Post-June 1 release". I don't think your scenario would work. Most of the players you mention do not show any cap savings unless they are released with a Post-June 1 designation.

I still think the Ravens are screwed if they want to try and keep him on that franchise tag. And I think that if they want to tag/trade, they still only have a week to do it, and they'd have to find a team willing to do that with a one year $45M contract, as there is no way to force Jackson to negotiate a long term deal.

I have a feeling that the Ravens already know if they have a trade partner or not.

 

[Rob0729]

I don't think there's ever a guarantee but, as you pointed out, Watson had an unusually long layoff, which certainly deteriorated his play in the short term. I'm confident he'll be a top 10 quarterback next season after a typical offseason with workouts and conditioning, etc.

The Browns hope you are right, but I think there has been cases where players who have taken long breaks from football (non-injury related) and just never get back what they had.

Prior to his sit out and suspension, he probably worked hard most or every day since he was a teenager working out, studying, etc. Almost two years of sitting on his arse (assuming he wasn't training like he was playing while he was exiled from the NFL) could have taken some of the edge off of him.

Odds are good he will return to at least close to what he was before all of this, but I wouldn't be shocked if he never is as good as he used to be. He doesn't have a lot of incentive to work hard with a fully guaranteed contract through the 2026 season which will give him $230 million.

 

[mgteich]

I’m not an expert in all of this but can’t they apply the tag on him then trade him after he signs it?

Yes, they can try to trade him in July,

THESE ARE THE ISSUES
1) The $34M would count against the cap until July at which time the money would be freed up with a trade.
2) The market for quarterbacks will be limited in July. Almost no one will count on being able to get Jackson. Teams will have made their deals with other QB's or drafted one.
3) In July the Ravens will need a QB.

Are you suggesting franchising him and having $45M could against their cap until Julyz?

 

[DaBruinz]

I'm not seeing those numbers for Stanley, Andrews & Humphrey. I'm seeing a lot less actually ($5.75M, $250K & $250K), and all of these numbers are with a Post-June 1 designation, which I am not even sure they can do since they have to tag Jackson by March 7th. On top of that, you're talking about cutting 5 starters, including their starting LT, which is not easy to replace with a low-cost FA these days.

Bresna - That's because you didn't read what I said. No where did I say they would CUT Stanley, Andrews and Humphrey. I only said about cutting Campbell and Zeitler. Stanley Andrews and Humphrey would be Salary to Signing Bonus Conversions.

So, No. I wasn't talking about "cutting 5 starters including their LT".

 

[DaBruinz]

I think the Ravens are going to have a hell of a time getting $45 million under the cap. If they're committed to that, though, they should just give him a deal and spread that hit out so it isn't so much this season.

They only need to free up $20M. I showed they can free up more than that.

 

[DaBruinz]

From what I'm reading, and it may be wrong, it looks like after tagging Jackson ($45M) on March 7th, the Ravens would have to get under the salary cap by March 15th and they can only designate 2 players as "Post-June 1 release". I don't think your scenario would work. Most of the players you mention do not show any cap savings unless they are released with a Post-June 1 designation.

I still think the Ravens are screwed if they want to try and keep him on that franchise tag. And I think that if they want to tag/trade, they still only have a week to do it, and they'd have to find a team willing to do that with a one year $45M contract, as there is no way to force Jackson to negotiate a long term deal.

So your doubling down on having misread my original post.

Your wrong. What I said works just fine when you understand the different accounting things that can be done with the cap. Such as converting salary to signing bonus and spreading the hit. You've been around enough that you should know them.

 

[bresna]

So your doubling down on having misread my original post.

Your wrong. What I said works just fine when you understand the different accounting things that can be done with the cap. Such as converting salary to signing bonus and spreading the hit. You've been around enough that you should know them.

But that just puts them in cap hell in a few years. That's also assuming that all of these players agree to this. And they have to do all of these contract re-writes by March 15th. That's going to be tough. Not impossible, but tough.

 

[DaBruinz]

But that just puts them in cap hell in a few years. That's also assuming that all of these players agree to this. And they have to do all of these contract re-writes by March 15th. That's going to be tough. Not impossible, but tough.

Bresna - There are only 2 teams that players have to be asked to have salary converted to Salary Cap. One of those is the Pats. I forget off the top of my head who the other team is. The other 30 teams have language in their contracts so that they can make the conversion without contacting the player ahead of time.

So, no, there are not a lot of "contract re-writes" that have to be done. They literally could submit the 3 conversions at the same time tomorrow and they'd be done.

No. It doesn't put the Ravens in cap hell in a few years. We're talking about and additional 8.05M (3.8, 2, and 2.25M) each of the next 2 years and 2.25 into 2026. They have a projected 69M in cap space in 2024 and 119M in cap space in 2025. That's with the cap expected to go up by 31M and 26M respectively. OTC projected the number within 200K for this year, so I feel comfortable with those.

Staley and Andrews will both have played out their contracts. Staley will be 31 and Andrews 30. Humphrey will probably be given a new contract by then.

And before you say "what about Jackson's $45M," He won't count 45M against the cap in the 1st 2 years of the contract.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I think the Ravens are going to have a hell of a time getting $45 million under the cap. If they're committed to that, though, they should just give him a deal and spread that hit out so it isn't so much this season.

Depends on the guaranteed money he is insisting on. Tough to write a monstrous check and a guy gets injured and is never the same. Jackson takes a lot of hits - a big check is a big risk for years.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I’m not an expert in all of this but can’t they apply the tag on him then trade him after he signs it?

Who would want to pay $45M plus a monster contract plus draft picks for a guy who is a FA next year?

 

[Bill Lee]

I get the idea that da Jete are going to offer him a ridiculous amount of money.

Carr is used to working for $40M/year, hope he gets that much or more out of da Jete.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Who would want to pay $45M plus a monster contract plus draft picks for a guy who is a FA next year?

Just to play devil’s advocate, a franchise that wants to trade for him and lock him into a contract. If you wait a year, some other franchise might have him locked up.