Official Free Agency 2018

[maineman209]

I loved Barwin in the 2009 draft, and was extremely pissed-off that Bill chose that soft-ass slob Ronnie Busto Brace instead of him.

Be that as it may, Barwin no longer wants to play 4-3 DE; he wants to remain a 3-4 OLB like he was in Houston during his first 4 years and in SD/LA last year.

It seems to me that Barwin was only forced into a DE role the one year - 2016 - when Schwartz came in as the DC in Philly and changed their scheme from Bill Davis' 3-4 to the 4-3.

Barwin was maybe my top binky in 2009. I think Brace was drafted for two reasons:
1) BB already knew he'd be morphing the base scheme from the 3-4 to more of the 4-3/3-4 hybrid they have now and was trying to acquire and develop the interior DL to staff that
2) there was some reasonable concern about Wilfork's upcoming contract negotiations, and his willingness/ability to adapt to the scheme change, so Brace was intended to be a bit of insurance

So, Brace turned out to be an epic fail, but Wilfork re-signed and did a HoF-worthy job of not only adapting to the new scheme, but excelling in it.

 

[maineman209]

He would be lucky to land on another roster after the Patriots hopefully cut him.

Folks said the same things about Tavon Wilson. And then, in his first season with the Lions, he was their leading tackler and one of their top DBs overall.

Different scheme, different role.

 

[maineman209]

I've said that no player is going to waltz in and unseat everyone on day one (Mayo was pretty special and there was a lot of reps available to him in that respect. KVN will be playing considerable snaps again next year because he can play every single linebacker position and in the NFL guys go down.

Hopefully a healthy Rivers can take significant snaps in a LEO role on the edge but we've yet to see him play a meaningful snap. We've need to add a linebacker who is truly comfortable in coverage. They're rare but incredibly valuable on third down. Chung is a bit older so his big nickel role can also be reduced/transitioned with a fluid 230lb player.

That role is significant and like you said our and the nfl's reliance on "sub" packages sort of highlights every single defender on the field. KVN is an elite coverage linebacker or an elite blitzer or edge rusher. He's capable in all 3 roles but on 3rd down in the post season, "capable" can get isolated and exploited by better athletes. Hightower has his 3rd down niche cut out as an excellent blitzer, good off the edge and capable when dropping.

The thing for me is that effective coverage at the LB level doesn't necessarily require having a "smaller, fast guy". LBs need to be capable of taking away zones and complicating routes and route-timing more than manning up on an actual WR. If enough of the LBs are sufficiently athletic (and smart/aware enough) to get to where they need to be on time, and stay close enough to an RB or TE (not named Gronk) to dissuade the throw most of the time, that should ease the stress on the DBs. That requires mostly football smarts.

As you say, Van Noy is "capable" in coverage. Hightower isn't horrible. Marquise Flowers (practically a rookie on defense) showed some potential this past season. Develop Flowers, add a guy like Bradham (who's not all that small), keep at least three of them healthy and things maybe begin to look a lot better at that level without shorting the middle of guys who won't get consistently washed out of gaps by big OL or blocking TEs.

 

[maineman209]

Reports are the Jets,Dolphins,Colts,Redskins,Cowboys have called the Steelers about Martavius Bryant.
They may actually get a third for him.

I can just imagine the "Bryant Bros" diva club in Dallas.

 

[maineman209]

Draft mid round

Mid first round? Sure!

I'm sure that's on the "to-do" list for the next time the Pats go 9-7 or 8-8.

 

[maineman209]

I'm not counting on Mitchell/Britt as 3rd big option. That player is Cooks and then Hogan/Dorsett.

The discussion was originally about "big" in the sense of tall and strong

 

[maineman209]

I am not sure we are using the word big to mean the same. I took it more as talking about tall people.. did I misread the entire thing ?

No, you didn't. Something got lost in translation somewhere.

 

[Deus Irae]

Folks said the same things about Tavon Wilson. And then, in his first season with the Lions, he was their leading tackler and one of their top DBs overall.

Different scheme, different role.

Wilson's garbage in Detroit, just like he was garbage in New England.

 

[Love The Drake]

I can just imagine the "Bryant Bros" diva club in Dallas.

They

Wilson's garbage in Detroit, just like he was garbage in New England.

Would much rather of kept Wilson than Draft Richards

 

[Sciz]

We're in the free agent target thread talking about Tavon Wilson, so I'm just going to point out that Wilson is a free agent again and could potentially be a target.

Please don't shoot the messenger.

 

[Deus Irae]

They

Would much rather of kept Wilson than Draft Richards

I'd rather get one leg amputated in an industrial accident than two, but that doesn't mean I would happily accept getting that one leg amputated.

 

[DW Toys]

Folks said the same things about Tavon Wilson. And then, in his first season with the Lions, he was their leading tackler and one of their top DBs overall.

Different scheme, different role.

This year Wilson was a bust.
DW Toys

 

[maineman209]

We're in the free agent target thread talking about Tavon Wilson, so I'm just going to point out that Wilson is a free agent again and could potentially be a target.

Please don't shoot the messenger.

That would be forking hilarious if the Pats did actually re-sign Wilson and he turned into Chung v2.0.

 

[supafly]

Perhaps, you will have the same attitude by Draft Day.

BTW, I guess you believe that the losses from last year's roster outright the gains.

IMHO, I don't believe that rookies will get a lot of playing time if we sign our own free agents, with the exception of the #1 (who we always hope has lot of reps) and a LB.

How many of our own FAs do you expect to sign? I was hoping for a handful and then some/most of the ST only players.

OT—no matter how you look at it, the position of tackle looks more like a need than in most years. We have three FAs. Even if we actually manage to sign two of them, a replacement for Solder should be considered. Garcia is unlikely to make any difference in my opinion, as he needs to gain about 45 lbs before we can even have that discussion.

RB—we currently have two real RBs under contract, and one of them was either injured or a healthy scratch last year. This is a position where we could see a rookie contributing, and was not a position where we needed a draft pick last year.

QB—obvious choice as it takes two years to develop. Even in Garoppolo’s third season in 2016, people were leery of him starting the opener and we were underdogs to the Arizona Cardinals. This was not a position that needed addressing last season.

TE—this is not a position that needed (much) attention last year, but certainly could if we lose 2/3 of Gronk, Bennett, Allen, or even just Gronkowski by himself. Also, we don’t know what the coaches feel about Hollister’s progression or lack thereof.

DT—most everyone wants a big bodied run stopper with one of our first few picks. Another area where the use of a young player could help.

DE—still lots of unknowns once Ninkovich retired and Ealy didn’t work out. Experimentation with HT last year that didn’t seem to pan out. Most certainly an area that could be addressed if the right player is there.

LB—no use going through this exercise. We simply need a more athletic coverage backer and possibly an upgrade in talent for a guy like Roberts. We could certainly plan better for the oft-injured HT.

CB—again, this one is obvious. We need a replacement for Butler, a possible upgrade for Rowe, and some competition for a guy like Jones.

S—Belichick could consider a replacement for Richards, and start to groom for the loss of McCourty/and/or Chung.

STO players—with a higher number of FAs than usual, this may be an area that needs to be addressed with a pick.

———

No matter where you look, the pond obviously needs restocking more than most years, and a much better question would be what position we don’t need some fresh new blood at. There are plenty of positions where we could see a rookie contribute, and even more if a guy like Solder/Gronk does not return.

Brady masks a lot of weaknesses, but that can only go so far judging by last year’s 2 worst defensive performances in Belichick’s 18 year tenure. Also, he’s not going to be around forever and we all want this team to at least be competitive when that happens.

 

[mgteich]

I am not sure we are using the word big to mean the same. I took it more as talking about tall people.. did I misread the entire thing ?

I must have misread

I don't participate in discussions that suggest the need for our offense to carry 2 top tall receivers.

 

[maineman209]

OT—no matter how you look at it, the position of tackle looks more like a need than in most years. We have three FAs. Even if we actually manage to sign two of them, a replacement for Solder should be considered. Garcia is unlikely to make any difference in my opinion, as he needs to gain about 45 lbs before we can even have that discussion.

I think that Solder is the only one that's absolutely necessary. His last contract was a no-frills 2-year for $20M, $19M guaranteed. No incentives, no weekly roster bonuses - no signing bonus. Just all guaranteed salary amounts.

I think this next one for Solder will be the same deal, but with higher amounts. Something like 2 years, $24M, $22M guaranteed. The Pats can save some 2018 cap space by staggering the salaries ... e.g $10M for 2018, $14M for 2019.

But yeah, still have to investigate a replacement to begin grooming. A 2-year deal for Solder gives Garcia and/or Jelks a year to get back on track, and a second shot a drafting a successor in 2019 if they don't.

After that, Marquis Flowers (3 years), Amendola (1 year), one of Lewis/Burkhead (3 years), one of Fleming/Waddle (2 years) . Total cap hit for 2018 maybe another $9M-$10M.

After that, you're pretty much down to a handful of $750k to $1.5M (mostly 1-year) contracts for special teamers.

Extend/restructure Dwayne Allen's 2018 cap hit down to $2M keeps him and pays for 2-3 special teamers.

But then, there's the draftees ($5M). Even without signing those roster-end special teamers, the Pats are spending close to $25M.

Gonna be a tough year, cap-wise. Difficult to sign outside FAs.

 

[Snooky97]

How many of our own FAs do you expect to sign? I was hoping for a handful and then some/most of the ST only players.

OT—no matter how you look at it, the position of tackle looks more like a need than in most years. We have three FAs. Even if we actually manage to sign two of them, a replacement for Solder should be considered. Garcia is unlikely to make any difference in my opinion, as he needs to gain about 45 lbs before we can even have that discussion.

RB—we currently have two real RBs under contract, and one of them was either injured or a healthy scratch last year. This is a position where we could see a rookie contributing, and was not a position where we needed a draft pick last year.

QB—obvious choice as it takes two years to develop. Even in Garoppolo’s third season in 2016, people were leery of him starting the opener and we were underdogs to the Arizona Cardinals. This was not a position that needed addressing last season.

TE—this is not a position that needed (much) attention last year, but certainly could if we lose 2/3 of Gronk, Bennett, Allen, or even just Gronkowski by himself. Also, we don’t know what the coaches feel about Hollister’s progression or lack thereof.

DT—most everyone wants a big bodied run stopper with one of our first few picks. Another area where the use of a young player could help.

DE—still lots of unknowns once Ninkovich retired and Ealy didn’t work out. Experimentation with HT last year that didn’t seem to pan out. Most certainly an area that could be addressed if the right player is there.

LB—no use going through this exercise. We simply need a more athletic coverage backer and possibly an upgrade in talent for a guy like Roberts. We could certainly plan better for the oft-injured HT.

CB—again, this one is obvious. We need a replacement for Butler, a possible upgrade for Rowe, and some competition for a guy like Jones.

S—Belichick could consider a replacement for Richards, and start to groom for the loss of McCourty/and/or Chung.

STO players—with a higher number of FAs than usual, this may be an area that needs to be addressed with a pick.

———

No matter where you look, the pond obviously needs restocking more than most years, and a much better question would be what position we don’t need some fresh new blood at. There are plenty of positions where we could see a rookie contribute, and even more if a guy like Solder/Gronk does not return.

Brady masks a lot of weaknesses, but that can only go so far judging by last year’s 2 worst defensive performances in Belichick’s 18 year tenure. Also, he’s not going to be around forever and we all want this team to at least be competitive when that happens.

This is spot on. Couldn't agree more with this, think we could be looking at UDFA for a few postions , unless we trade down a lot this year and manage to get a range of picks, we might struggle to get what we need

 

[maineman209]

I must have misread

I don't participate in discussions that suggest the need for our offense to carry 2 top tall receivers.

But, they're so easy to find, aren't they?!

 

[chasa]

thoughts on cutting bennett and allen and trying to get julius thomas once the phins cut him?

 

[mgteich]

There is a lot to react to here. Re-signing our own is worth a separate thread. I would be fine with Solder, Amendola, Harrison, and Burkhead or Lewis, and Waddle. Francois would be an easy re-sign

Sure, we sign MOST of the STO players: from Ebner, Slater, Richards and King.

The issue is signing those who are top special teamers and backup positional players: Flowers and Bademosi. I would put significant a lot of emphasis (read money) to sign these. Belichick went out and looked for solid STers who could be potential starters. he found two. Let's re-sign them before taking flyers on the unknown.
==========
Where would be if we signed our own, except Lewis? IMHO, in pretty good shape. There would still be reasonable cap money (after various moves) to secure additional veteran and rookie help.
=========
LET'S LOOK
( I show additions at OT, RB, CB, S; obviously there could be more)

QB - we would bring in a QB, or not
RB - We would add someone to Bulkhead, White, and Gillislie
WR - We are more than all set, after re-sign Danny.
TE - There are decisions to be made, but we have the players.
OT - Solder and Waddle is a good start; addition, addition
OG - all set
OC - all set

DE - Flowers, Wise, Butler, Rivers, Grissom (Lee, Kidder, Davis)
DT - Guy, Brown, Valentine, Francois
LB - Hightower, Van Noy, Flowers, Harrison, Roberts, (King)
(Grigsby, Harris, McClellan, Langi)
CB - Gilmore, Rowe, addition, J Jones, Bademosi, (C Jones, Lewis)
S - McCourty, Chung, Harmon, addition, Ebner, Richards, (Travis, Jones)

How many of our own FAs do you expect to sign? I was hoping for a handful and then some/most of the ST only players.

OT—no matter how you look at it, the position of tackle looks more like a need than in most years. We have three FAs. Even if we actually manage to sign two of them, a replacement for Solder should be considered. Garcia is unlikely to make any difference in my opinion, as he needs to gain about 45 lbs before we can even have that discussion.

RB—we currently have two real RBs under contract, and one of them was either injured or a healthy scratch last year. This is a position where we could see a rookie contributing, and was not a position where we needed a draft pick last year.

QB—obvious choice as it takes two years to develop. Even in Garoppolo’s third season in 2016, people were leery of him starting the opener and we were underdogs to the Arizona Cardinals. This was not a position that needed addressing last season.

TE—this is not a position that needed (much) attention last year, but certainly could if we lose 2/3 of Gronk, Bennett, Allen, or even just Gronkowski by himself. Also, we don’t know what the coaches feel about Hollister’s progression or lack thereof.

DT—most everyone wants a big bodied run stopper with one of our first few picks. Another area where the use of a young player could help.

DE—still lots of unknowns once Ninkovich retired and Ealy didn’t work out. Experimentation with HT last year that didn’t seem to pan out. Most certainly an area that could be addressed if the right player is there.

LB—no use going through this exercise. We simply need a more athletic coverage backer and possibly an upgrade in talent for a guy like Roberts. We could certainly plan better for the oft-injured HT.

CB—again, this one is obvious. We need a replacement for Butler, a possible upgrade for Rowe, and some competition for a guy like Jones.

S—Belichick could consider a replacement for Richards, and start to groom for the loss of McCourty/and/or Chung.

STO players—with a higher number of FAs than usual, this may be an area that needs to be addressed with a pick.

———

No matter where you look, the pond obviously needs restocking more than most years, and a much better question would be what position we don’t need some fresh new blood at. There are plenty of positions where we could see a rookie contribute, and even more if a guy like Solder/Gronk does not return.

Brady masks a lot of weaknesses, but that can only go so far judging by last year’s 2 worst defensive performances in Belichick’s 18 year tenure. Also, he’s not going to be around forever and we all want this team to at least be competitive when that happens.