Offensive prediction

[BobDigital]

Awesome breakdown but optimistic IMO. If you shave 10-15% off you are really cooking. Well done

- 4100 passing yards would have been top 5 in 2024
- middle of the pack is around 3700, league average is a huge increase for the Pats
- 2800 rushing yards is top 3 (2024)

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I know I am in the minority but I thought the Patriots offensive game plans were within the limits of the overall talent (piss poor). The team was so bad they literally had no margin for error.

Dreaming of middle of the road this year.

Thanks for the great post, very thoughtful and appreciated.

4100 yard would have been the 7th most in 2024, which you are right (it seems a bit high). But it be the 9th most in 2023 and 10th most in 2022 and 11th most in 2021 and 12th most in 2020. So I'd say 2024 was a bit of a down year. In recent NFL times 4100 passing yards seems closer to 10th overall in passing than 5th. That's a huge difference. So maybe it is a bit optimistic even when looked at that way, but not as optimistic as first thought.

As for the rushing yards... i stand by that number more or less. I may go down to 2700 yards, but i think we will be running a lot and very well. Vrabel with the Titans has gotten close to that number before... and while this team lacks Derrick Henry, they also are much deeper bench at RB AND have a QB that can add way more yardage than Tannehill ever could. In 12 games he ran for 421 yards... more than Tannehill did in any season by a strong margin. And if he goes down for a bit Dobbs can run too.

Assuming Maye plays all 16 games he is going to probably add about 500+ yards on the ground to whatever else we get so i am taking that into account a bit. I actually under shot that i think they will try to get Maye not to run so much.

But yes.. i know these numbers are high. But i honestly think if Maye does what i think he can do with the pieces he has, this offense is going to be good this year.

 

[Uptown]

In relation to the offense…

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Chism has a monumental task ahead of him to make an nfl practice squad let alone an active roster and put up stats.

It’s possible but highly unlikely. The short white slot receiver mystique is back I guess. Chism is no more likely to be the next Edelman/welker than a random 6’4 black undrafted receiver is to be the next Randy Moss.

Chism - 4.71 dash time. Practice squad ??

 

[BobDigital]

Chism - 4.71 dash time. Practice squad ??

The more i learn about him and the more i think about it i don't believe he will pas thru waivers once they see how well his skill set translates on the field. As for that 40 time... yeah it's bad. Bad that is the only reason he went so low. And frankly NFL teams sometimes worry too much about things which don't matter. The 40 time of a true slot WR isn't a big deal. Teams might worry he can be closed on after getting open, but if the ball gets out on time there simply won't be enough time for even the fastest defenders to close if they aren't quick enough.

You need to watch some videos on him. The dude accelerates and changes direction at an absolute elite level. One of the best i've ever seen. And his hands are glue. He plays with toughness and an edge. And yeah... due to his 40 time he won't break it for a TD on a long field. So what? Get me my first down. Move the chains. Also i think he will eventually be pretty nasty in a compressed red zone situation. Put him on an island with a guy and he will give you a window to put it. I only don't have him doing much this year cause Douglas will probably see most of those snaps for now as he is the more steady proven option, but i think he takes Douglas' role next year. I will say though, if he takes it this year that wouldn't surprise me either. I think some people over estimate how good Douglas is in the slot. He's pretty good. Not really good and not great. Chism can be really good... maybe even great. He is that electric.

 

[Ring 6]

The more i learn about him and the more i think about it i don't believe he will pas thru waivers once they see how well his skill set translates on the field. As for that 40 time... yeah it's bad. Bad that is the only reason he went so low. And frankly NFL teams sometimes worry too much about things which don't matter. The 40 time of a true slot WR isn't a big deal. Teams might worry he can be closed on after getting open, but if the ball gets out on time there simply won't be enough time for even the fastest defenders to close if they aren't quick enough.

You need to watch some videos on him. The dude accelerates and changes direction at an absolute elite level. One of the best i've ever seen. And his hands are glue. He plays with toughness and an edge. And yeah... due to his 40 time he won't break it for a TD on a long field. So what? Get me my first down. Move the chains. Also i think he will eventually be pretty nasty in a compressed red zone situation. Put him on an island with a guy and he will give you a window to put it. I only don't have him doing much this year cause Douglas will probably see most of those snaps for now as he is the more steady proven option, but i think he takes Douglas' role next year. I will say though, if he takes it this year that wouldn't surprise me either. I think some people over estimate how good Douglas is in the slot. He's pretty good. Not really good and not great. Chism can be really good... maybe even great. He is that electric.

Of course he would make it through waivers.
What you are suggesting is that every team evaluated him and said he wasn’t worth a pick. But in parts of 3 preseason games playing against guys who won’t be in the NFL, they are going to entirely change their evaluation of him and consider him can’t miss and cut someone they kept on their 53 who knows their system and is ready to go to get the guy they didn’t feel worthy of a draft choice.
Every team has their own guys like this.
Can you think of any examples of UDFAs who didn’t make it through waivers?

 

[Ring 6]

I think there are the numbers that matter.

Last year at 380 points, Pittsburgh was the average offense (16th best) Denver was 10th at 425.
Is our offense as good at Pittsburgh and Denver were last year? Shooed they be based upon the players. I don’t see better players in those offenses than ours.

On defense Tampa 385 was 16th, Miami 364 was 10th.
Are we, should we be, better than them with what we have on defense?

I think top 10 scoring offense and defense is a fair goal for this team.


FYI we allowed 417 last year and 366 in 2023 and hasn’t allowed 364 of more since 1995 before that.

 

[Salsalife]

I think there are the numbers that matter.

Last year at 380 points, Pittsburgh was the average offense (16th best) Denver was 10th at 425.
Is our offense as good at Pittsburgh and Denver were last year? Shooed they be based upon the players. I don’t see better players in those offenses than ours.

On defense Tampa 385 was 16th, Miami 364 was 10th.
Are we, should we be, better than them with what we have on defense?

I think top 10 scoring offense and defense is a fair goal for this team.


FYI we allowed 417 last year and 366 in 2023 and hasn’t allowed 364 of more since 1995 before that.

Going to crawl before we walk I think. 8 wins hopefully, 10 wins we got a team that plays well on the road. I'd like it if we mimmick the Bronco ball, good defense, run and deep shots...

 

[TheRainMaker]

Going to crawl before we walk I think. 8 wins hopefully, 10 wins we got a team that plays well on the road. I'd like it if we mimmick the Bronco ball, good defense, run and deep shots...

Josh Allen won 10 games in his second season with Tom Brady still in the division. Pats should win 9 games minimum next season assuming they have rookies contributing and their FA signing were a success.

 

[Salsalife]

Josh Allen won 10 games in his second season with Tom Brady still in the division. Pats should win 9 games minimum next season assuming they have rookies contributing and their FA signing were a success.

Vegas says 7.5 wins this year.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

The more i learn about him and the more i think about it i don't believe he will pas thru waivers once they see how well his skill set translates on the field.

Chism will definitely pass through waivers.

As for that 40 time... yeah it's bad. Bad that is the only reason he went so low.

He didn't go low, he was an UDFA.

And frankly NFL teams sometimes worry too much about things which don't matter. The 40 time of a true slot WR isn't a big deal. Teams might worry he can be closed on after getting open, but if the ball gets out on time there simply won't be enough time for even the fastest defenders to close if they aren't quick enough.

When a player is so slow the defense can jam him at the line with a LB because the LB is faster than Chism. Then the LB does not have to "close on" Chism, the LB will be pushing and harassing Chism the whole route because Chism can't take off and burn the LB (Chism is too slow).

You need to watch some videos on him. The dude accelerates and changes direction at an absolute elite level.

His athletic test scores do not support that. He was in the Blue Sky conference - not exactly the SEC.

One of the best i've ever seen. And his hands are glue. He plays with toughness and an edge. And yeah... due to his 40 time he won't break it for a TD on a long field. So what? Get me my first down. Move the chains. Also i think he will eventually be pretty nasty in a compressed red zone situation. Put him on an island with a guy and he will give you a window to put it. I only don't have him doing much this year cause Douglas will probably see most of those snaps for now as he is the more steady proven option, but i think he takes Douglas' role next year. I will say though, if he takes it this year that wouldn't surprise me either. I think some people over estimate how good Douglas is in the slot. He's pretty good. Not really good and not great. Chism can be really good... maybe even great. He is that electric.

Chism is slow, not electric. He was running against clods in the Blue Sky conference because no-one in the SEC wanted him.

 

[Ring 6]

Vegas says 7.5 wins this year.

So?

 

[Ring 6]

Going to crawl before we walk I think. 8 wins hopefully, 10 wins we got a team that plays well on the road. I'd like it if we mimmick the Bronco ball, good defense, run and deep shots...

Not at all. This team is its own team. It’s not held back by last years team.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

Every white slot receiver gets compared to Edelman and welker. Race comparisons with white receivers is blatant in the nfl. It’s the next Edelman, or the next cooper Kupp. Both Fans and analysts do it. There have been articles and even a segment on espn about the white receiver biases.

The What?