For the people that really love detail, a couple plays that show how I analyze and why stats are just a tool and first impressions are not always right.
One thing I will say about Good/Great QB Passers. They throw with anticipation. Brock Purdy gets a bad rap because he has time to throw, has great receivers, they get open. If you watch him throw, he throws the ball regularly to the wr before they are open, before the break. He does not wait for the guy to turn to wait until they are open. Mahomes, Stroud, Allen, Herbert, Mayfield, Stafford, Purdy have that. Not many others do it well and regularly. Drew Brees was the best ever at this.
Maye did it all the time in college, we saw it in the exhibition game. No other prospect did that regularly in college. Jacoby does not do this, so he is often a bit late with the ball or needs more spacing. Just Something to notice about the best passers.
These are plays Jacoby missed I feel Maye would have made that would have been difference makers, understanding Maye in changes everything so who knows the play calls, the defense etc, who knows what mistakes Maye makes, I get it but this is showing the difference between the 2 QB's skill and processing ability. Also comparing to what an average NFL QB would do. It also goes to my detailed process.
Going to first dive into the 3rd down play at the end of the half that was incomplete and gave Seattle great field position.
So this photo looks like Jacoby is pressured and dead, The fact he gets out great play Jacoby.
BUT, he takes a 10-yard drop, just took an 8-yard drop play before, maybe this is the play call so not on him, seems a bad play call to drop your QB so a sack could be a safety. I am giving him the benefit of the doubt that the drop was coached. If 8 yards guy behind him never touches him, guy near feet never touches him. As it is the guy behing gets a hand on him but not much.
Here is the front angle, you can see Andrews pushing the rusher which is why he stumbles and falls to Jacoby's right, never actually gets any pressure. The guy behind you can see his momentum is too deep and getting pushed can't do anything but get a hand on Jacoby. I DO GIVE Jacoby plus pocket movement, he did not panic at the rush, still looking downfield, wish he felt the pressure a bit sooner and stepped up but he moves right, toward the guy falling and then jumps backward a bit to avoid his hand. The only bad play here by a QB would be running backwards and not feeling the outside pressure which Jacoby does not do, otherwise the back pressure NEVER really touches him and the other guy slaps at his knee as the guy is falling. So how many QB's get sacked? The very bad ones that can't feel the blindside pressure. So positive pocket movement but not a great play or anything. Solid.
So now you are left with this look, 2 guys on the ground, 1 being blocked, the LB responsible for Jacoby running and Rhamondre coverage. Does he need to leave the pocket? Not really, has plenty of time to reset and look downfield. Instead, he runs out to right, LB follows. Rhamondre is 50/50 if he throws it to him to get the 8 yards needed.
Here is what he has as he leaves the pocket, notice Tyquan is wide open in the middle, he was wide open pretty much from the second the lineman missed Jacoby, he looks up after they miss him, he has him, he scrambles and looks middle, has him. Instead, he continues to scramble right, now the defense, especially the deep safeties is thinking run, DD, splits the safeties, he's gone, TD, if you can stop or throw 50 yards on the run. Will have info at the end how Jacoby only Ever looks to the right or middle, never back to the left.
This is his clearance from the LB just after release so he has space, he's not pressured, has 5 yards to the sidelines with Henry but throws wide, Henry tries to make a tough catch leaning out of bounds and keeping feet in but can't quite do it.
So how do you analyze this play. Well, Line gave some pressure, mild pressure when you look at it but pressure. Jacoby avoided that and got free. Line sucks? Jacoby was great? At that point. More nuanced, I give Jacoby a positive mark for the movement though on tape it's kind of just luck BUT he gets points for not panicking, sensing the back pressure enough to not run backward into it. I still question the 10 yard vs 8 yard drop which eliminates all potential pressure but again, assuming not on Jacoby. So up to this point can't say Jacoby did anything bad and it's debatable if he did a solid, good or great pocket move.
That part of the play is over. He's free of the pocket, though I think he could have just reset, looked down the middle and found TT. However, I get it, feel pressure, get out of the pocket, many QB's do that. So slight negative but not killing him for that. Now comes one of the biggest negatives for Jacoby. He only sees half the field. If the first read is to the right, the 2nd read is probably to the right, so he never lets his eyes leave the right side. From snap to throw he never looks anywhere but right. A quick look middle and TT is wide open by close to 10 yards. He likes shorter, he likes the safer play, he's going to look for the easier throw every time. He struggles throwing on the run as the announcers mentioned several times and again, he throws a bit wide, we punt they get 3 before the half.
Am i too harsh on him here? He has to make one of those throws once he leaves the pocket. He just has to. One thing I notice in all the games, a QB that can run, can throw on the run, can look up before running, gets guys open ALL THE TIME. I would design plays on purpose where it looks like QB is bailing pocket and running. Defenses lose their discipline over and over again, afraid of the run, abandoning receivers. Also just gives more time for receivers to get open. This is the type of analysis I look at on every play, thankfully not that much happens on every play LOL.
Here is the first sack, and why it is on Jacoby, As I mentioned he had 3.5 seconds before rusher approaches him. He looked right, TE was covered, comes back middle, not sure if he sees Polk and does not trust himself or if he is looking at KJ short crossing but covered. THIS IS THE EXACT PLAY DRAKE MAYE MADE IN THE EXHIBITION GAME. Polk has cleared the LB who is chasing the RB the other way. Throws don't get any easier, even if he only trusts short throw hit the RB, it is THIRD and 2, first down is just short of the 40, right where the RB is, THIS ONE SACK made the sack rate 10% instead of 6.67%. He rolls right and does not throw it away gets sacked near sidelines. Drive over, must punt. Totally on Jacoby 100% AND most QB's make that throw, even Bo Nix would hit the RB. This is just as bad as it gets, lucky they were not many more of these. A QB is going to make mistakes, the game moves fast, this is so basic Drake Maye did it to perfection in the exhibition game, it is QB 101. Maye had tighter coverage and had to throw before the break, Jacoby doesn't even have to do that,
Couple Red Zone plays:
Here is the one where the TE is open at the goal line. The player off the screen to the right is chasing a wr, the safety is too far back, Henry is moving right so has a step and nobody is defending to the right, Jacoby is looking that way. He has time. Throw it before he breaks its caught, lead him and it caught, its tight coverage but its there, its a 20 yard throw low and away. This is the same drive he missed Polk earlier at the 7 yard line. It is the red zone, you have to make those tighter window throws. One on one , your best Tight End, with some leverage, its the play, if defender makes a great play kudos to them. Its your read, throw it. He rolls right and throws away, does not like rolling left, he rolled left he had some open receivers possible. Can't blame him for rolling right, his second read was right and he does not get past second read. Maye made this throw multiple times in college, would an average NFL QB make it? I think so.
OK, Last one in red zone, same drive. This is just kind of a processing thing, nothing that changed the outcome of the game egregiously like the other plays. First read is TE in the middle, can see covered, safety comes down to double him. He looks to Rhamondre, seems weird to be second read but he does that 2nd, maybe because he only looks to the right, though wide open he does not throw, he looks back at the double covered Tight End for a second, no idea why.
By time he throws to the RB in the flat this is the look he has, completely covered, falling down, he throws it in the dirt. You see a TD to the left, and Polk open to the left, is 3rd down. YOU WOULD THINK after the Tight End the next read would be KJ in the end zone, then Polk and then the outlet. Maybe the design is TE and then hope the RB makes one guy miss, if that is the case then he HAS to throw it to him at the 10 so he has time to make a move, why go back and look at the TE that you know was double covered. Just terrible processing. I think most average QB's take the throw to the flat and hope RB makes a play. He did not even do that. Good QB's go next to KJ.
Jacoby is a right half of the field dominant QB. He likes to look right, throw right. PFF says he has 23 throws to the right, 24 to the middle and ONLY 4 to the left and every single one to the left under 10 yards. Can't process the whole field.
PFF has him with a 63.0 passing rating, 68.3 when he is kept clean. Should be about a 10 point difference. So he's less accurate than the average QB. He is 53.6 when pressured which is where he should be in comparison to overall.
His Pressure to sack % is 14.8, was 20% in this game, that is solid, 20% is on the border. Time to throw average is 3.23, that is really bad, and there have been people open. Mahomes is 2.61 YTD and is a scrambler. Scramblers can be above 3, non-scramblers need to be near 2.80. Jacoby is 2.83 in 2023 so he's taking too long for whatever reason.
Anyways, this is my process and how I analyze the QB's, college prospects and Pro, glad I'm retired as I enjoy the learning experience doing this.
