"Not Worth The 4th Pick"

[manxman2601]

This is a phrase I keep seeing in relation to almost every prospect available at 4 outside of Carter and Hunter and it relates to positional value. A LG isn't worth the 4th pick. An undersized DT isn't worth the 4th pick. A RB, a TE, a slow WR etc. However, the phrase becomes redundant if no-one is worth the 4th pick because without the guarantee of a trade down, someone has to be taken at 4. I agree that the traditional value of the 4th pick isn't there this year. What we have to decide is who is most worth the 4th pick?

I did this on the main board but it should really be in the draft forum. I broke down the possible picks at 4 into three categories and because, following Campbell and Graham's measurements, I think things are now much less clear, I've thrown a pretty wide net.

Category One: Potential Fallers

Mason Graham - Weight, arm length and deep class
Will Campbell - Arm length and wingspan
Tet McMillan - Speed

Category Two: The High Ceiling, Low floor Prospects

Shemar Stewart - Lack of production
Mykel Williams - Ditto
Jalen Walker - Is he a tweener?
Marcus Golden - Undersized, relatively low production

Category Three: High floor, Low Relative Value

Armand Membou - RT only?
Tyler Warren - Positional value
Ashton Jeanty - Ditto
Jahdae Barron - Late riser and positional value
Jihaad Campbell - Ditto

Hopefully Carter or Hunter fall to 4 and render this thread moot. Or hopefully we get the trade down and the value proposition becomes less of an issue. However, if neither happens, I find myself leaning to category three. All are excellent prospects who might not justify a 4th overall pick in normal years (this is not a normal year) but will significantly enhance the prospects of this team and raise the floor.

So which category are you?

 

[manxman2601]

Two notes:

1. Before anyone knocks the inclusion of Barron and Campbell, bear in mind that PFF have both in their top 10 and Daniel Jeremiah has both in his top 12.

2. I could have included Will Johnson but didn't because of injury. Nor did I include Malaki Starks because his stock seems to be heading south rather than north like Barron and Campbell.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Great summary! Membou maybe?

Man. This is hard. I'll sidestep and say I'll feel more comfortable answering after free agency.

 

[Joey007]

I look through this list and Campbell is who I’d roll with. No one else particularly interests me. I do think Graham would be solid, just not really the direction I want to go with the string depth at that position.

Tet scares me.

 

[manxman2601]

Great summary! Membou maybe?

Man. This is hard. I'll sidestep and say I'll feel more comfortable answering after free agency.

I have Membou just behind Campbell. But I am really warming to Barron and Jihaad.

 

[upstater1]

Hope that someone wants Shedeur Sanders.

Pray.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

This is a phrase I keep seeing in relation to almost every prospect available at 4 outside of Carter and Hunter and it relates to positional value. A LG isn't worth the 4th pick. An undersized DT isn't worth the 4th pick. A RB, a TE, a slow WR etc. However, the phrase becomes redundant if no-one is worth the 4th pick because without the guarantee of a trade down, someone has to be taken at 4. I agree that the traditional value of the 4th pick isn't there this year. What we have to decide is who is most worth the 4th pick?

I did this on the main board but it should really be in the draft forum. I broke down the possible picks at 4 into three categories and because, following Campbell and Graham's measurements, I think things are now much less clear, I've thrown a pretty wide net.

Category One: Potential Fallers

Mason Graham - Weight, arm length and deep class
Will Campbell - Arm length and wingspan
Tet McMillan - Speed

Category Two: The High Ceiling, Low floor Prospects

Shemar Stewart - Lack of production
Mykel Williams - Ditto
Jalen Walker - Is he a tweener?
Marcus Golden - Undersized, relatively low production

Category Three: High floor, Low Relative Value

Armand Membou - RT only?
Tyler Warren - Positional value
Ashton Jeanty - Ditto
Jahdae Barron - Late riser and positional value
Jihaad Campbell - Ditto

Hopefully Carter or Hunter fall to 4 and render this thread moot. Or hopefully we get the trade down and the value proposition becomes less of an issue. However, if neither happens, I find myself leaning to category three. All are excellent prospects who might not justify a 4th overall pick in normal years (this is not a normal year) but will significantly enhance the prospects of this team and raise the floor.

So which category are you?

I was on the Graham train, but at 295 lbs. and not sculptured like a Greek God, I hopped off the train.

I am on the Membou train now. Sign a LT in FA, Membou at RT, and draft 1. a developmental LT this year, or 2. draft a real LT next year to take over for the FA. Long term Membou or the developmental tackle might play LT and are swing tackles in the meantime. Wallace, our R3 pick last year, can kick inside and help with the OGs. I think the above might fix the OL if we can find three good OGs between the six possibles, Onwenu, Strange, Robinson, Wallace, J Andrews, and Sow.

 

[manxman2601]

I was on the Graham train, but at 295 lbs. and not sculptured like a Greek God, I hopped off the train.

I am on the Membou train now. Sign a LT in FA, Membou at RT, and draft 1. a developmental LT this year, or 2. draft a real LT next year to take over for the FA. Long term Membou or the developmental tackle might play LT and are swing tackles in the meantime. Wallace, our R3 pick last year, can kick inside and help with the OGs. I think the above might fix the OL if we can find three good OGs between the six possibles, Onwenu, Strange, Robinson, Wallace, J Andrews, and Sow.

Membou is right up there for me too. We're not going to find the positional value it seems so now I just want the best player regardless of positional value. I still think that's Campbell at LG, but Membou is closing in second place.

 

[Rdforty2]

This is why I'm in the Campbell camp. I personally feel tackle is still an option. No, he may not be elite but could still be good. Which is a massive upgrades from anything we had last year. But also could be elite at guard. His versatility gives him a high floor. Not that floor should be the main criteria. But in needing to hit on a pick, it doesn't hurt.

Graham would be #2, but the depth at DT(and the possibility of addressing it in free agency) knock the need down a bit.

If we moved down to 6-12 and those guys are gone, Shemar Stewart and Mike Green up front. Will Johnson could be there after his pro day. McMillan on the back end of the range because I still think hes a very good prospect.

Free agency is going to tell a lot. It feels like WR and LT is going to be hard to find in FA, so it places a greater need in those areas on draft day. DE, DT, and CB looks good to be addressed in FA, which is where value may lie in the draft.

 

[bakes781]

This is a phrase I keep seeing in relation to almost every prospect available at 4 outside of Carter and Hunter and it relates to positional value. A LG isn't worth the 4th pick. An undersized DT isn't worth the 4th pick. A RB, a TE, a slow WR etc. However, the phrase becomes redundant if no-one is worth the 4th pick because without the guarantee of a trade down, someone has to be taken at 4. I agree that the traditional value of the 4th pick isn't there this year. What we have to decide is who is most worth the 4th pick?

I did this on the main board but it should really be in the draft forum. I broke down the possible picks at 4 into three categories and because, following Campbell and Graham's measurements, I think things are now much less clear, I've thrown a pretty wide net.

Category One: Potential Fallers

Mason Graham - Weight, arm length and deep class
Will Campbell - Arm length and wingspan
Tet McMillan - Speed

Category Two: The High Ceiling, Low floor Prospects

Shemar Stewart - Lack of production
Mykel Williams - Ditto
Jalen Walker - Is he a tweener?
Marcus Golden - Undersized, relatively low production

Category Three: High floor, Low Relative Value

Armand Membou - RT only?
Tyler Warren - Positional value
Ashton Jeanty - Ditto
Jahdae Barron - Late riser and positional value
Jihaad Campbell - Ditto

Hopefully Carter or Hunter fall to 4 and render this thread moot. Or hopefully we get the trade down and the value proposition becomes less of an issue. However, if neither happens, I find myself leaning to category three. All are excellent prospects who might not justify a 4th overall pick in normal years (this is not a normal year) but will significantly enhance the prospects of this team and raise the floor.

So which category are you?

I'm still on the Graham bandwagon but I do like the idea of Higher Ceiling options.

I would add Mike Green could throw a wrench in this as we still need to see his Pro Day. He has the production. But there's the character concerns.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm still on the Graham bandwagon but I do like the idea of Higher Ceiling options.

I would add Mike Green could throw a wrench in this as we still need to see his Pro Day. He has the production. But there's the character concerns.

I did think about including Green but didn't want to add a 4th "red flag" category.

 

[manxman2601]

There is one option we haven't discussed for understandable reasons. If we want to guarantee one of Hunter or Carter, trade up into the top 3. I understand why no-one would want to do that, but if there is such a value gap between those two and the rest perhaps there is value in it.

 

[bakes781]

There is one option we haven't discussed for understandable reasons. If we want to guarantee one of Hunter or Carter, trade up into the top 3. I understand why no-one would want to do that, but if there is such a value gap between those two and the rest perhaps there is value in it.

I suggested the idea in the Carter thread.

 

[Boomer B]

If Carter and Hunter are gone, then I’d prefer a trade down. If no one wants to trade then I think we have to look at Campbell or Graham.

 

[jboston19]

To play devils advocate, I didn’t see will Johnson on the list. He’s been mentioned near the top of the draft, has a heck of a skill set, and would make for a formidable duo with CG.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

If we have to stay at 4 with no trade down
I have to not let the underwear Olympics sway me from what the tape says
Mason Graham

 

[imahobgoblin]

I think we need to go all in on Ronnie Stanley at LT, and if possible, Patrick Mekari at LG. Strange and Andrews can battle it out for C. Owenu at RG. I am warming to the idea of Will Campbell being the backup LT and switching over to RT for the time being. Stanley has trouble staying healthy. That would leave Sow, Wallace, and Robinson as depth. This sets up the o-line for a long time.

Turn to FA and draft to fix the d-line. Milton Williams and Harold Landry if he gets cut.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

The buzz after the combine suggests only one QB gone by the time we pick. A lot of people say that in that case we should trade down - but exactly who is it that will want to trade up with us? Only happen if one of the many QB-needy teams really wants Sanders.

And if we have no trade partner and simply need to make our pick, I guess I'm in the Campbell camp. Worst case we have a really good and athletic guard.

I do suspect we will go hard after Staley, and so LT may not be an immediate issue. I suppose that would make Campbell less desirable.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Membou is right up there for me too. We're not going to find the positional value it seems so now I just want the best player regardless of positional value. I still think that's Campbell at LG, but Membou is closing in second place.

You might be right as Campbell seems like a great guy and a great athlete. But Membou seems like a great guy too, and I think his ceiling is higher being only 20 years old right now. With a little seasoning, Membou could be a long term RT solution at a minimum, and maybe a LT solution as well. I think LT is the most valuable. RT is the second most valuable, and OG is the least valuable, so I would stay with Membou.

 

[stelfans]

If a trade down scenario isn’t there I see 2 options:
a) draft Campbell to be an elite LG
b) Tyler Warren

Those are the 2 safest bets, after that they could go a different number of ways none seem particularly enticing to me.