Niklas signed

[luuked]

Quit being rational, put down your stats, grab a pitchfork and join the mob. Rabble rabble rabble...

Speaking of pitchforks.. Niklas is what a busted second round player looks like. Richards and Wilson might have been very wrong evaluations in the draft process by the Pats but one of them keeps contributing consistently on ST and various defensive packages and the other is on his third NFL contract.

But I suppose anyone who doesn't become a pro bowl player is potentially a bust nowadays if he is drafted on the first 2 days. Which is stupid.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Speaking of pitchforks.. Niklas is what a busted second round player looks like. Richards and Wilson might have been very wrong evaluations in the draft process by the Pats but one of them keeps contributing consistently on ST and various defensive packages and the other is on his third NFL contract.

But I suppose anyone who doesn't become a pro bowl player is potentially a bust nowadays if he is drafted on the first 2 days. Which is stupid.

With Richards, BB is making chicken salad out of chicken ****

 

[RobertWeathers]

let's also trade with the cardinals for elijhaa penny--now that would be some real change.
.

Low cost acquisition. Get him for penny on the dollar

 

[luuked]

With Richards, BB is making chicken salad out of chicken ****

So far he has not shown to be a good football player that much we all know by now. No question.

And maybe I am just arguing terminology but all in all he is merely a big disappointment but not a bust.

 

[RobertWeathers]

So far he has not shown to be a good football player that much we all know by now. No question.

And maybe I am just arguing terminology but all in all he is merely a big disappointment but not a bust.

I think you are pretty close.

I think its all based on draft selection, expectation and achievement. Ultimately that drives perception.

Clearly fans believe for the 2nd round pick, the team should be picking up a starter/impact player/solid contributor. I think that is a reasonable expectation.

Hypothetically, if by his second year Richards became a Pro Bowl STer then I don't think there would be the public outrage for selecting him in the 2nd round. You might get some unintelligent complainers here and there bemoaning the pick but most knowledgeable fans would approve of the pick but with the caveat of, "Richards is awesome but BB couldn't have waited until the 4th round for this guy?".

That argument would then polarize the board and we'd have a 10 page long thread on the value of special teams.

 

[bbobbo]

Low cost acquisition. Get him for penny on the dollar

it would never happen, because it makes too much cents.
.

 

[maineman209]

Speaking of pitchforks.. Niklas is what a busted second round player looks like. Richards and Wilson might have been very wrong evaluations in the draft process by the Pats but one of them keeps contributing consistently on ST and various defensive packages and the other is on his third NFL contract.

But I suppose anyone who doesn't become a pro bowl player is potentially a bust nowadays if he is drafted on the first 2 days. Which is stupid.

Also, Niklas was overhyped from the get-go. Guys like Kiper had him as a potential 1st-rounder.

 

[mgteich]

So far he has not shown to be a good football player that much we all know by now. No question.

And maybe I am just arguing terminology but all in all he is merely a big disappointment but not a bust.

Yes, It's a matter of definition.

IMHO, a non-1st rounder who is active on a playoff team in his 4th year isn't a bust. This is especially true if the player has a role on the team (in this case STer, and #4 safety.

Heck, we could have Tavon Wilson. Another thread calls him our worst draft choice in the last 7 years. IMHO, that clearly isn't true.

I suppose that we could look back and see folks who called Ben Watson a bust. And now, 14 years later, he will be a contributor for a playoff contender.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

You should get mod power once a year on April 1st or something like that. Make it an annual event like the Purge..

I still can't see the image of Brady at the latest ring presentation party waving his hands, fingers outstretched and bedecked with thousands of diamonds, without thinking of your request to Ian to be allowed to use photoshop to change his fingers to penises.

Edit: Ooops @luuked - I mistakenly replied to your post. Of course I was referring to @fnordcircle 's request to Ian. Apologies for looping you into this.

 

[bbobbo]

let's also trade with the cardinals for elijhaa penny--now that would be some real change.
.

Mods? This pun cannot be allowed.

Every post would be changed to **** pics.

admit it--you're just jealous from pennies envy.
.

 

[Marqui]

I think you are pretty close.

I think its all based on draft selection, expectation and achievement. Ultimately that drives perception.

Clearly fans believe for the 2nd round pick, the team should be picking up a starter/impact player/solid contributor. I think that is a reasonable expectation.

Hypothetically, if by his second year Richards became a Pro Bowl STer then I don't think there would be the public outrage for selecting him in the 2nd round. You might get some unintelligent complainers here and there bemoaning the pick but most knowledgeable fans would approve of the pick but with the caveat of, "Richards is awesome but BB couldn't have waited until the 4th round for this guy?".

That argument would then polarize the board and we'd have a 10 page long thread on the value of special teams.

Are you guys talking about Jordan Richards? In what universes is he not a clear colossal bust?

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

With Richards, BB is making chicken salad out of chicken ****

He may be trying, but it still looks and smells like chicken **** to me. On D the guy can recognize what he needs to do, but he just never GETS there to do it. On ST, maybe he does his job. I never notice either excellence or obvious ST screw-ups. On D, though... it is always a disaster waiting to happen.

 

[BlueThunder]

it would never happen, because it makes too much cents.
.

GROAN...

 

[BlueThunder]

Also, Niklas was overhyped from the get-go. Guys like Kiper had him as a potential 1st-rounder.

You lost me at Kiper....

 

[RobertWeathers]

Are you guys talking about Jordan Richards? In what universes is he not a clear colossal bust?

We all know he sucks as a defender. There is no argument there.

He is an above average STer. That counts for something.

If the expectation is he was the next Patrick Chung (who most around here called a bust) then yes, he is.

Considering the failure rate of 2nd roundners is 50% and Richards has been in the league 3 years and the average NFL career is 3.4 years, I'm not sure he should be considered a complete bust. Hes already surpassed Ras I Dowling.

The point @luuked was making is this board goes overboard in labeling players as a bust.

 

[Bill Lee]

I think you are pretty close.

I think its all based on draft selection, expectation and achievement. Ultimately that drives perception.

Clearly fans believe for the 2nd round pick, the team should be picking up a starter/impact player/solid contributor. I think that is a reasonable expectation.

Hypothetically, if by his second year Richards became a Pro Bowl STer then I don't think there would be the public outrage for selecting him in the 2nd round. You might get some unintelligent complainers here and there bemoaning the pick but most knowledgeable fans would approve of the pick but with the caveat of, "Richards is awesome but BB couldn't have waited until the 4th round for this guy?".

That argument would then polarize the board and we'd have a 10 page long thread on the value of special teams.

Clearly most fans are overly optimistic.

" The chance of a bust in the NFL draft " gives us:

A bust is a player that ends up with a value score of less than 5 according to pro-football-reference.com. A value of less than 5 is equivalent to a marginal role player that has limited game experience and contributes little to no value to an NFL franchise. Here it is in a visual:

In round terms, 2 of every 5 players chosen in the first two rounds do not advance beyond being a marginal role player with little to no value to a NFL franchise. The standard of 100% of players ever reaching starter/impact player/solid contributor status is a much higher standard and clearly unreasonable. Even by the end of the first round you're down to 1 of 5 being a bust. Even the very first pick of the draft has a non-zero bust percentage.

" The first round of the draft remains a total crapshoot " quotes Atlanta GM Dimitroff:

“According to our most recent statistics that we drew on the first round, it’s less than 60 percent of those players that are starting,” Dimitroff said. “I think it may have come in at 56 percent"

So if you change the standard to first round players who become starters, 2 of 5 do not reach that standard.

The article ends with:

Still, during the first round of the draft on Thursday night, it likely won’t be a discussion point that roughly one out of every two guys picked will never amount to anything in the NFL. It never is.

It’s not a surprise. The draft is about selling hope. And it’s hard to sell hope when reality gets in the way.

When you look at the numbers, most fans are being incredibly overoptimistic when it comes to the draft.

If you want a player that can hold a starting job, the odds clearly show you're better off getting proven free agents rather than draft picks. The big advantage for draft picks is they are cheapm but as above, half of them will be busts. Of course what BB does is maximizes the value by finding lower priced free agents who can make contributions.

 

[luuked]

Edit: Ooops @luuked - I mistakenly replied to your post. Of course I was referring to @fnordcircle 's request to Ian. Apologies for looping you into this.

Happy to join this twosome...

 

[RobertWeathers]

Clearly most fans are overly optimistic.

" The chance of a bust in the NFL draft " gives us:



In round terms, 2 of every 5 players chosen in the first two rounds do not advance beyond being a marginal role player with little to no value to a NFL franchise. The standard of 100% of players ever reaching starter/impact player/solid contributor status is a much higher standard and clearly unreasonable. Even by the end of the first round you're down to 1 of 5 being a bust. Even the very first pick of the draft has a non-zero bust percentage.

" The first round of the draft remains a total crapshoot " quotes Atlanta GM Dimitroff:

So if you change the standard to first round players who become starters, 2 of 5 do not reach that standard.

The article ends with:

When you look at the numbers, most fans are being incredibly overoptimistic when it comes to the draft.

If you want a player that can hold a starting job, the odds clearly show you're better off getting proven free agents rather than draft picks. The big advantage for draft picks is they are cheapm but as above, half of them will be busts. Of course what BB does is maximizes the value by finding lower priced free agents who can make contributions.

Yep and for all the darts thrown at him, BB is way above average in picking players who have talent and can play (see my post earlier in the tread showing a 50% hit rate on players the last 4 years) and determining if a 4th - 7th rounder is better served trading for an NFL player who has upside.

All BB is doing is putting more chips on more numbers at the craps table and counting cards at the same time at the other table.

 

[bbobbo]

Clearly most fans are overly optimistic.

" The chance of a bust in the NFL draft " gives us:



In round terms, 2 of every 5 players chosen in the first two rounds do not advance beyond being a marginal role player with little to no value to a NFL franchise. The standard of 100% of players ever reaching starter/impact player/solid contributor status is a much higher standard and clearly unreasonable. Even by the end of the first round you're down to 1 of 5 being a bust. Even the very first pick of the draft has a non-zero bust percentage.

" The first round of the draft remains a total crapshoot " quotes Atlanta GM Dimitroff:

So if you change the standard to first round players who become starters, 2 of 5 do not reach that standard.

The article ends with:

When you look at the numbers, most fans are being incredibly overoptimistic when it comes to the draft.

If you want a player that can hold a starting job, the odds clearly show you're better off getting proven free agents rather than draft picks. The big advantage for draft picks is they are cheapm but as above, half of them will be busts. Of course what BB does is maximizes the value by finding lower priced free agents who can make contributions.

rather than set a static threshold for "bust", they should have calculated the average score (value, or number of games started) for every draft slot, and then compare whatever player you're evaluating to the average. if the player you're looking at is considerably below average value for his draft slot, then you can consider them a bust.
.

 

[luuked]

The point @luuked was making is this board goes overboard in labeling players as a bust.

I know some will just not care about how terminology keeps getting abused but labeling players that have been in the league for a while (or in case of Wilson are onto their second post-rookie contract) busts just diminishes the real disasters during drafts.

It is very similar to how people rush to call almost every incompletion a drop nowadays. No, words have meaning. A drop requires a catchable pass and an obvious chance for a player to catch it.

Anyway.. whatever..