NFL Draft 2010 Prediction 3 ProBowlers/3 Busts

[Brady-To-Branch]

I like correlation studies.

There was a recent article about SackSeer that used vertical jump and 20' yard shuttle measurables to gauge an edgerusher's NFL success.

NOTE: Cunningham had a 35" vertical. Didn't do the shuttle, but did have a 1.58 10-yard dash, which isn't too shabby. Hughes ran 1.67 10'.

Vernon Gholston: 42" vertical, 1.59 10-yard dash, but ran a slow 2.63 20' shuttle

There's an old article I recall from 2007, that I can't find, that shows a correlation with 10-yard dash times for WRs and NFL success. The correlation being that WR's taken high with slower than 1.5 10' dash, haven't fared as well as those who ran better than 1.5.

Past WR Draft Busts and their 10' dash times:

Michael Williams, USC 1.62
Troy Williamson, South Carolina 1.58
Chad Jackson, Florida 1.55

2010 WRs:
Pats 3rd round pick Taylor Price? 1.46

All others drafted prior to him were slower than 1.5 with the exception of Emmanuel Sanders of SMU (Steelers) at 1.49.


EDIT: I found this link FWIW...

NFL Forum :: - Jermaine Cunningham projection

So pretty much everyone felt that a rush linebacker was the biggest need the Patriots had going into the draft, and they finally addressed it with Jermaine Cunningham in the second round. I had watched some film on him, and mocked him to the Patriots at 53 in my "What the Patriots will do" mock of my mock sampler platter. Breaking him down, he seemed like a quality SEC defensive end, a little undersized but athletic, productive but not a tremendous standout in any area. Once the Patriots drafted him, I figured I'd go back and take a close look at him. The first thing that stands out is his rumored short shuttle time. Coming out of high school, he ran a confirmed sub 4.10 20 yard shuttle at a little over 200 pounds. Now at 266 pounds, he was rumored to have run between a 4.12 and 4.30 at his pro day. No matter where he truly fell in that range, if the time is accurate, that is an excellent result.

One trend I've noticed when evaluating pass rushers that made the transition to the NFL, especially this year and last, is that nearly all the successful smaller defensive ends and rush linebackers had good to great vertical leaps, broad jumps and short shuttle times. 40 times are almost irrelevant, as pass rushing is all about burst, flexibility to bend around the corner, and the ability to transfer speed to power. There isn't an elite pass rusher in the league that doesn't possess the ability to do at least one of those things at an elite level, and most possess two or all three. So about a month and a half ago, I started working on a stat to quickly compare prospects against current pros and each other in terms of how well they project as a pass rusher. When the Patriots drafted him, I quickly looked him up on my spreadsheet, and realized I hadn't put all his numbers in. Once I did, I ran it through a comparison of current rush linebackers, and he matched up well against some of the better pass rushers in the league. I didn't see anyone that he really resembled though, until I checked him against the 4-3 defensive ends, and one comparison became immediately obvious: Jared Allen.

Allen wasn't highly sought after in the 2004 draft. A 4th rounder, he tested pretty well athletically but didn't come from a major conference. What's interesting though, is that despite his pedestrian 40 time, 10 yard split, 3 cone time, vertical and bench press rep numbers, he had solid measurables in terms of weight (266, the same as Cunningham), height (6'5.4") and most importantly, broad jump (10') and short shuttle time (4.33 sec). The fact that he turned himself into one of the premier pass rushing specialists in the league should have been no surprise; at his size, those numbers indicated explosive ability on par with the better pass rushers already in the league. Comparing the Patriots' newest draftee Cunningham to Allen, we see some extremely similar numbers. Cunningham weighs the same amount, is an inch and a half shorter, but possesses superior vertical leap(35" to Allen's 33") and short shuttle numbers. The rest of their results are almost identical.

What does this mean? Nothing, right now. It's just a projection of athletic ability, and there are several other important factors that will come into play. But considering the level of competition Cunningham faced in college compared to Allen, his similar attributes in explosion oriented measures and size, and his superior athleticism, as evidenced by his ability to play in space at Florida, Cunningham's upside may be far greater than I originally estimated. Don't be surprised if he turns into a guy that is routinely in the top 10-15 players in the league in terms of sacks and pressures.

 

[patchick]

Can we universally agree that Jaon Pierre-Paul will be a bust?

The Giants are a good spot for Pierre-Paul, but he really baffles me. He's wildly inexperienced, apparently intellectually challenged, but was a hot prospect based on his freakish athleticism, right? Except the athletic measurables just aren't there! The most important measures for a pass rusher are VJ, 10-yd split and shuttle, and Pierre-Paul did very poorly on all of them.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Comparing the Patriots' newest draftee Cunningham to Allen,

Is he allowed to do that, patchick?

 

[mmasterkillah]

Pro-Bowl
1. McClain
2. Spiller
3. Earl Thomas
4. McCourty

Busts
1. Gerald McCoy
2. Brian Bulaga
3. Tim Tebow
4. Tyson Alualu

 

[the assman]

Pro Bowlers:

Maurkice Pouncey
Joe Haden
Rolando McClain


Busts:

Tim Tebow
Demaryius Thomas
Patrick Robinson

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Pro Bowlers:

Graham
Spiller
McClian


Busts:
Tebow
Dez Bryant
Pierre-Paul


for credintials I offer this assesment from 2007....
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...6-who-will-biggest-bust-page2.html#post405600

 

[CTHuskies]

Pick Three Pro Bowlers, 3 Busts. You can't pick any of the first 5 unless you pick them as a bust.

1 Sam Bradford QB Rams 97
2 Ndamukong Suh DT Lions 97
3 Gerald McCoy DT Buccaneers 98
4 Trent Williams OT Redskins 95
5 Eric Berry S Chiefs 97
6 Russell Okung OT Seahawks 96
7 Joe Haden DB Browns 93
8 Rolando McClain ILB Raiders 94
9 C.J. Spiller RB Bills 95
10 Tyson Alualu DT Jaguars 89
11 Anthony Davis OT 49ers 93
12 Ryan Mathews RB Chargers 91
13 Brandon Graham OLB Eagles 94
14 Earl Thomas S Seahawks 95
15 Jason Pierre-Paul DE Giants 94
16 Derrick Morgan DE Titans 95
17 Mike Iupati OG 49ers 93
18 Maurkice Pouncey C Steelers 93
19 Sean Weatherspoon OLB Falcons 89
20 Kareem Jackson DB Texans 93
21 Jermaine Gresham TE Bengals 92
22 Demaryius Thomas WR Broncos 92
23 Bryan Bulaga OT Packers 92
24 Dez Bryant WR Cowboys 94
25 Tim Tebow QB Broncos 78
26 Dan Williams DT Cardinals 93
27 Devin McCourty DB Patriots 90
28 Jared Odrick DT Dolphins 91
29 Kyle Wilson DB Jets 92
30 Jahvid Best RB Lions 88
31 Jerry Hughes OLB Colts 93
32 Patrick Robinson DB Saints 85

Pro Bowlers
Jared Odrick
Maurkice Pouncey
Ryan Mathews

Busts
Devin McCourty
Tim Tebow
Anthony Davis