Need For Change - The Defensive Line

[mgteich]

See the good doctor's (mayoclinic) #60 analysis of the defensive line. The situation is really not sustainable.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...70-approach-offseason-page6.html#.Uu1RwBZpBz8
=========================

LINEBACKER

Personally, I think that we are OK with our linebackers: Mayo, Hightower, Collins and Fletcher. We could always use a 5th. Collins isn't exactly a lock to be a major contributor.
===========
DEFENSIVE END
The general issue is that we need a rotation, so that we can have fresh players out there. It is simply unacceptable to rely on C. Jones and Ninkovich for over 90% of the defensive reps and then say that they weren't effective enough.

We need TWO addition defensive ends. We need to replace Bequette as a rotational base DE. Also, we need a replacement for Carter in the sub. Buchanan is fine as a developmental #5 DE. I am using current nomenclature. If we had the two additional players, I suspect that the schemes could be much more varied.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE
The team will obviously make a serious assessment here. Last year we spend a lot at this position. Siliga and C Jones seem to be fine members of a 4 man DT group (plus perhaps a fifth developmental player). Kelly looked fine to be before his injury, Wilfork, not so much.
I see no reason for believing that Kelly cannot play for 3 more years as a starter or backup.
The team will evaluate, but I would expect an extension.

IMHO, we start with what we had at the end of the year: Jones, Siliga and Vellano. We add Kelly (perhaps after being on PUP). Vellano or a rookie or Forston or even Pryor can be the #4 until Kelly is ready to play.

We still need to replace Sopoaga. This is Wilfork's roster spot.

SUMMARY OF NEEDS (IMHO, the #2 need on the defense after starting corner)

1) A DE for the starting rotation.

2) A pass-rushing DE for the sub.

3) A fifth linebacker to compete with Fletcher and Collins.

4) A veteran starting DT (could be Wilfork)

CONCLUSION

Many of us have ignored the needs in the front seven, as we rightfully worry about who our #1 corner will be.

 

[mayoclinic]

See the good doctor's (mayoclinic) #60 analysis of the defensive line. The situation is really not sustainable.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...70-approach-offseason-page6.html#.Uu1RwBZpBz8
=========================
LINEBACKER

The general issue is that we need a rotation, so that we can have fresh players out there. It is simply unacceptable to rely on C. Jones and Ninkovich for over 90% of the defensive reps and then say that they weren't effective enough.

Personally, I think that we are OK with our linebackers: Mayo, Hightower, Collins and Fletcher. We could always use a 5th. Collins isn't exactly a lock to be a major contributor.
===========
DEFENSIVE END
We need TWO addition defensive ends. We need to replace Bequette as a rotational base DE. Also, we need a replacement for Carter in the sub. Buchanan is fine as a developmental #5 DE. I am using current nomenclature. If we had the two additional players, I suspect that the schemes could be much more varied.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE
The team will obviously make a serious assessment here. Last year we spend a lot at this position. Siliga and C Jones seem to be fine members of a 4 man DT group (plus perhaps a fifth developmental player). Kelly looked fine to be before his injury, Wilfork, not so much.
I see no reason for believing that Kelly cannot play for 3 more years as a starter or backup.
The team will evaluate, but I would expect an extension.

IMHO, we start with what we had at the end of the year: Jones, Siliga and Vellano. We add Kelly (perhaps after being on PUP). Vellano or a rookie or Forston or even Pryor can be the #4 until Kelly is ready to play.

We still need to replace Sopoaga. This is Wilfork's roster spot.

SUMMARY OF NEEDS (IMHO, the #2 need on the defense after starting corner)

1) A DE for the starting rotation.

2) A pass-rushing DE for the sub.

3) A fifth linebacker to compete with Fletcher and Collins.

4) A veteran starting DT (could be Wilfork)

CONCLUSION

Many of us have ignored the needs in the front seven, as we rightfully worry about who our #1 corner will be.

This seems somewhat confused to me. I don't know why you discuss Jones' and Ninkovich's snap count under the linebackers.

At defensive end we have Jones, Ninkovich and Buchanan. Buchanan can hopefully take the extra step and be a sub rusher. Hightower, Collins and possibly a newbie at DE/OLB could also play a sub rusher role. We need a rotational DE - either a starter or a sub who gets considerable snaps. The FA targets (Michael Johnson, Greg Hardy, Michael Bennett) are likely to be expensive and/or not available.

At LB we have Mayo, Hightower and Collins pretty well entrenched as starters. I don't understand why you have "a fifth linebacker to compete with Fletcher and Collins". It makes no sense. Fletcher is UFA - you seem to assume he will be back. It's not a given. I'd like to see another LB with range and athleticism like Collins appears to bring. Kyle Van Noy, Marcus Smith, Christian Jones, among others will be within range in the draft. This player could also potentially compete for snaps as a sub rusher.

At DT we have Wilfork coming off of IR, Kelly coming off of IR, Armstead coming off of IR, Siliga, Chris Jones, Vellago, Grissom and Forston. We need starting caliber talent at both NT and 3-tech, whether it's Wilfork and Kelly or replacements. Assessing this situation and deciding which way to go is a high priority.

 

[ivanvamp]

See the good doctor's (mayoclinic) #60 analysis of the defensive line. The situation is really not sustainable.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...70-approach-offseason-page6.html#.Uu1RwBZpBz8
=========================
LINEBACKER

The general issue is that we need a rotation, so that we can have fresh players out there. It is simply unacceptable to rely on C. Jones and Ninkovich for over 90% of the defensive reps and then say that they weren't effective enough.

Personally, I think that we are OK with our linebackers: Mayo, Hightower, Collins and Fletcher. We could always use a 5th. Collins isn't exactly a lock to be a major contributor.
===========
DEFENSIVE END
We need TWO addition defensive ends. We need to replace Bequette as a rotational base DE. Also, we need a replacement for Carter in the sub. Buchanan is fine as a developmental #5 DE. I am using current nomenclature. If we had the two additional players, I suspect that the schemes could be much more varied.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE
The team will obviously make a serious assessment here. Last year we spend a lot at this position. Siliga and C Jones seem to be fine members of a 4 man DT group (plus perhaps a fifth developmental player). Kelly looked fine to be before his injury, Wilfork, not so much.
I see no reason for believing that Kelly cannot play for 3 more years as a starter or backup.
The team will evaluate, but I would expect an extension.

IMHO, we start with what we had at the end of the year: Jones, Siliga and Vellano. We add Kelly (perhaps after being on PUP). Vellano or a rookie or Forston or even Pryor can be the #4 until Kelly is ready to play.

We still need to replace Sopoaga. This is Wilfork's roster spot.

SUMMARY OF NEEDS (IMHO, the #2 need on the defense after starting corner)

1) A DE for the starting rotation.

2) A pass-rushing DE for the sub.

3) A fifth linebacker to compete with Fletcher and Collins.

4) A veteran starting DT (could be Wilfork)

CONCLUSION

Many of us have ignored the needs in the front seven, as we rightfully worry about who our #1 corner will be.

If the Pats are going to look at a veteran for help on the DL, the guy I want them to kick the tires on is Justin Tuck. Typically is a DE, but very often slides to DT in pass rush situations. In other words, he can play both DE and DT, is very good at getting to the QB, and is just overall a really good football player. I don't know how much he'd cost, but he's definitely a guy I'd want NE to explore.

A pass-rush foursome of Chandler Jones, Kelly (or Chris Jones), Tuck, and Ninkovich would be pretty darned good.

 

[All22PatsFan]

I think we need a DE and a pass rushing DT. The DE can alternate with Ninko/Jones and play on third down as a DT or move Jones to DT on third down. The guy I like is Michael Johnson who is considered to be one of the best, receiving the franchise tag last year showcasing is talent, his sack numbers were down this year. But he is still a stud. In order to get him something has to be done with Wilfork. Either a huge pay cut, I would release him though.
At DT Silver Siliga has proven to be a run stuffer, Good anchor, takes on double teams, he even gave the Broncos guard Vasquez trouble one of the best in the league. Unfortunately he doesn't add much to the pass rush. I think the Patriots should draft a guy to play that pass rush DT role who can alternate with Armstead and Chris Jones.They could also add a guy like Livinal Joseph from the giants. Vellano would back up Siliga
This scenario would have the Patriots:
1. Cut Wilfork, Kelly and Suboga
2. Add Michael Johnson
3. Draft a Pass rushing DT

 

[everlong]

I believe the number one need on defense is some interior lineman who can push the pocket. With how quickly elite QBs get rid of the ball moving them off the spot up the middle is more effective than outside pressure. Constant pressure in this manner is more important than random sacks.

 

[Joey007]

I think we need a DE and a pass rushing DT. The DE can alternate with Ninko/Jones and play on third down as a DT or move Jones to DT on third down. The guy I like is Michael Johnson who is considered to be one of the best, receiving the franchise tag last year showcasing is talent, his sack numbers were down this year. But he is still a stud. In order to get him something has to be done with Wilfork. Either a huge pay cut, I would release him though.
At DT Silver Siliga has proven to be a run stuffer, Good anchor, takes on double teams, he even gave the Broncos guard Vasquez trouble one of the best in the league. Unfortunately he doesn't add much to the pass rush. I think the Patriots should draft a guy to play that pass rush DT role who can alternate with Armstead and Chris Jones.They could also add a guy like Livinal Joseph from the giants. Vellano would back up Siliga
This scenario would have the Patriots:
1. Cut Wilfork, Kelly and Suboga
2. Add Michael Johnson
3. Draft a Pass rushing DT

10char

 

[All22PatsFan]

I believe the number one need on defense is some interior lineman who can push the pocket. With how quickly elite QBs get rid of the ball moving them off the spot up the middle is more effective than outside pressure. Constant pressure in this manner is more important than random sacks.

I have watched Livinal Joseph he seems like the guy your describing.

 

[Sciz]

If the Pats are going to look at a veteran for help on the DL, the guy I want them to kick the tires on is Justin Tuck. Typically is a DE, but very often slides to DT in pass rush situations. In other words, he can play both DE and DT, is very good at getting to the QB, and is just overall a really good football player. I don't know how much he'd cost, but he's definitely a guy I'd want NE to explore.

A pass-rush foursome of Chandler Jones, Kelly (or Chris Jones), Tuck, and Ninkovich would be pretty darned good.

It sounds like Tuck is chasing the money, and paying him a lot would scare me. He had 9.5 sacks in his most recent 6 games (including six in two games against the awful Redskins), but 10.5 in the previous 37. If he gets paid a lot and then performs at the average level of his previous three seasons, then he'll be a major FA bust.

 

[mgteich]

I fixed where the Ninlovich and Jones comments were put. My bad.
========
Our priorities seem similar. We agree on the importance of DE and DT needs. Our conclusions are a bit different.

STARTING DEFENSIVE END
We agree that we need a top rotational DE.

SUB DEFENSIVE END
You think that we are fine with Buchanan, Collins and Hightower in this role. Carter got a lot of reps for a reason. In any case, we agree that we might add a sub package DE. We just disagree with regard to the importance of the need.

LINEBACKER
You have Collins locked into a starting LB position. He played because we had Mayo and Spikes out. Perhaps he is a clear starter. You point out that Fletcher isn't signed.

Accepting that Collins is a starting linebacker, we still have a serious need for a backup linebacker or two. We have nothing behind Mayo, Hightower and Collins (except Ninkovich who is constrained not to play more than 100% of the defensive reps). In my construction, we need a 4th and 5th linebacker. I agree that one of these could take reps as a DE pass-rusher.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE

We agree that decisions need to be made regard to Wilfork.

We also agere on the need to make a decision on Kelly. I think that we agree that this decision can wait for the preseason.

Personally, I have exactly zero question with regard to C Jones and Siliga. Unless they are injured, they should be part of the team's plans, perhaps as inexpensive backups.

I don't think that Jones and Siliga should be listed with Armstead, Vellano, Grissom, and Forston who have shown little or nothing. 1-3 of these players could make the team or the Practice Squad.

This seems somewhat confused to me. I don't know why you discuss Jones' and Ninkovich's snap count under the linebackers.

At defensive end we have Jones, Ninkovich and Buchanan. Buchanan can hopefully take the extra step and be a sub rusher. Hightower, Collins and possibly a newbie at DE/OLB could also play a sub rusher role. We need a rotational DE - either a starter or a sub who gets considerable snaps. The FA targets (Michael Johnson, Greg Hardy, Michael Bennett) are likely to be expensive and/or not available.

At LB we have Mayo, Hightower and Collins pretty well entrenched as starters. I don't understand why you have "a fifth linebacker to compete with Fletcher and Collins". It makes no sense. Fletcher is UFA - you seem to assume he will be back. It's not a given. I'd like to see another LB with range and athleticism like Collins appears to bring. Kyle Van Noy, Marcus Smith, Christian Jones, among others will be within range in the draft. This player could also potentially compete for snaps as a sub rusher.

At DT we have Wilfork coming off of IR, Kelly coming off of IR, Armstead coming off of IR, Siliga, Chris Jones, Vellago, Grissom and Forston. We need starting caliber talent at both NT and 3-tech, whether it's Wilfork and Kelly or replacements. Assessing this situation and deciding which way to go is a high priority.

 

[All22PatsFan]

It sounds like Tuck is chasing the money, and paying him a lot would scare me. He had 9.5 sacks in his most recent 6 games (including six in two games against the awful Redskins), but 10.5 in the previous 37. If he gets paid a lot and then performs at the average level of his previous three seasons, then he'll be a major FA bust.

Sacks are a misleading stat.

 

[everlong]

I have watched Livinal Joseph he seems like the guy your describing.

He would be a great start.

 

[All22PatsFan]

I fixed where the Ninlovich and Jones comments were put. My bad.
========
Our priorities seem similar. We agree on the importance of DE and DT needs. Our conclusions are a bit different.

STARTING DEFENSIVE END
We agree that we need a top rotational DE.

SUB DEFENSIVE END
You think that we are fine with Buchanan, Collins and Hightower in this role. Carter got a lot of reps for a reason. In any case, we agree that we might add a sub package DE. We just disagree with regard to the importance of the need.

LINEBACKER
You have Collins locked into a starting LB position. He played because we had Mayo and Spikes out. Perhaps he is a clear starter. You point out that Fletcher isn't signed.

Accepting that Collins is a starting linebacker, we still have a serious need for a backup linebacker or two. We have nothing behind Mayo, Hightower and Collins (except Ninkovich who is constrained not to play more than 100% of the defensive reps). In my construction, we need a 4th and 5th linebacker. I agree that one of these could take reps as a DE pass-rusher.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE

We agree that decisions need to be made regard to Wilfork.

We also agere on the need to make a decision on Kelly. I think that we agree that this decision can wait for the preseason.

Personally, I have exactly zero question with regard to C Jones and Siliga. Unless they are injured, they should be part of the team's plans, perhaps as inexpensive backups.

I don't think that Jones and Siliga should be listed with Armstead, Vellano, Grissom, and Forston who have shown little or nothing. 1-3 of these players could make the team or the Practice Squad.

I think you underestimate how good Siliga played, he was dominate, He couldn't be run on. Watch the tape of him and you will be extremely impressed.

 

[Ring 6]

See the good doctor's (mayoclinic) #60 analysis of the defensive line. The situation is really not sustainable.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...70-approach-offseason-page6.html#.Uu1RwBZpBz8
=========================

LINEBACKER

Personally, I think that we are OK with our linebackers: Mayo, Hightower, Collins and Fletcher. We could always use a 5th. Collins isn't exactly a lock to be a major contributor.
===========
DEFENSIVE END
The general issue is that we need a rotation, so that we can have fresh players out there. It is simply unacceptable to rely on C. Jones and Ninkovich for over 90% of the defensive reps and then say that they weren't effective enough.

We need TWO addition defensive ends. We need to replace Bequette as a rotational base DE. Also, we need a replacement for Carter in the sub. Buchanan is fine as a developmental #5 DE. I am using current nomenclature. If we had the two additional players, I suspect that the schemes could be much more varied.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE
The team will obviously make a serious assessment here. Last year we spend a lot at this position. Siliga and C Jones seem to be fine members of a 4 man DT group (plus perhaps a fifth developmental player). Kelly looked fine to be before his injury, Wilfork, not so much.
I see no reason for believing that Kelly cannot play for 3 more years as a starter or backup.
The team will evaluate, but I would expect an extension.

IMHO, we start with what we had at the end of the year: Jones, Siliga and Vellano. We add Kelly (perhaps after being on PUP). Vellano or a rookie or Forston or even Pryor can be the #4 until Kelly is ready to play.

We still need to replace Sopoaga. This is Wilfork's roster spot.

SUMMARY OF NEEDS (IMHO, the #2 need on the defense after starting corner)

1) A DE for the starting rotation.

2) A pass-rushing DE for the sub.

3) A fifth linebacker to compete with Fletcher and Collins.

4) A veteran starting DT (could be Wilfork)

CONCLUSION

Many of us have ignored the needs in the front seven, as we rightfully worry about who our #1 corner will be.

It amazes me how we look at an individual unit, and treat it as if there is not a rest of the team and/or we have a 200mill cap.

You are asking for a 3rd STARTING DE, AND a 3rd down pass rushing DE.
You link to an article that says its easy, since Seattle didn't have to work too hard to do that. Really? Where is our Red Bryant? Where do we find the 6,500,000 to pay the 'easy to find' 3rd starter, Cliff Avril for Seattle? Bryant makes 7 mill a year, Mebane, another 'easy to find' is on a 5 year 25 mill contract, and Bruce Irvin was a mid first round pick.

We have needs much more severe than spending all the cap money we have to get a 3rd starter at DE, and a 4th pass rusher so those 3 top guys get to rest.

Surely we need depth at DE, but to try to mimic what Seattle did by spending heavily surrounding a beast in Bryant will only come at the expense of ignoring OL, TE/WR, DB.

I'm not sure why you think Collins, who was among the best players on the field in the last month is questionable to be a major contributor.

 

[Sciz]

Sacks are a misleading stat.

And which are misleading, the 9.5 sacks in 6 games or the 10.5 in the previous 37? The only site I trust for hits and hurries is Football Outsiders, and while they don't have their 2013 numbers up yet, Tuck wasn't at all impressive in that regard either of the previous two seasons. Both his 2011 and 2012 seasons were outclassed by 2011 and 2012 Ninkovich, 2011 Carter (the best of the bunch), and 2012 Jones.

 

[mayoclinic]

I have watched Livinal Joseph he seems like the guy your describing.

I've been saying that since before the trade deadline. There were rumors that Joseph might have been an option for the Pats then, but it didn't pan out - not clear if it was because of no interest on the Pats' part, or because the asking price was too high. I suspect the Pats kicked the tires on him, and have him on their radar.

Joseph is only 25 (he won't turn 26 until October), so he's essentially 7 years younger than Wilfork, without the injury history, and would be cheaper. He's not Wilfork in his prime, but he can do the things that need to be done - stop the run, push the pocket, and provide a bit of pressure.

 

[mgteich]

So, you are accusing me of not paying attention to the salary cap? I did refer to mayo's post on another thread and the article he cited. To be clear, I don't think that it is easy to upgrade the DL. We are currently making decisions on players with rather large cap hits at DT. IMHO, it is a time for decision-making. Belichick may make any significant changes. I still think that the needs are worth discussing.

I suppose that I am guilty of looking at the defense and offense separately.

As always, we come into the offseason with needs, and our own UFA's. I agree that we have cap constraints.

The question before the house is how we should spend money and draft choices on the defense. We are looking at needs. Perhaps, Belichick will have no money left for the position of DE and simply assume that Ninkovich and Jones can continue to play 90% of the reps. Who is the #3? Should we really believe that Bequeete will step up.

Ok. Let's try it another way. I'm not sure why Collins should be considered a solid starter based on one month of solid performance. In any case, who are our #4 and #5 linebackers?

It amazes me how we look at an individual unit, and treat it as if there is not a rest of the team and/or we have a 200mill cap.

You are asking for a 3rd STARTING DE, AND a 3rd down pass rushing DE.
You link to an article that says its easy, since Seattle didn't have to work too hard to do that. Really? Where is our Red Bryant? Where do we find the 6,500,000 to pay the 'easy to find' 3rd starter, Cliff Avril for Seattle? Bryant makes 7 mill a year, Mebane, another 'easy to find' is on a 5 year 25 mill contract, and Bruce Irvin was a mid first round pick.

We have needs much more severe than spending all the cap money we have to get a 3rd starter at DE, and a 4th pass rusher so those 3 top guys get to rest.

Surely we need depth at DE, but to try to mimic what Seattle did by spending heavily surrounding a beast in Bryant will only come at the expense of ignoring OL, TE/WR, DB.

I'm not sure why you think Collins, who was among the best players on the field in the last month is questionable to be a major contributor.

 

[mayoclinic]

Our priorities seem similar. We agree on the importance of DE and DT needs. Our conclusions are a bit different.

I've mixed your post and Andy's together with comments on both points of view.

STARTING DEFENSIVE END
We agree that we need a top rotational DE.

SUB DEFENSIVE END
You think that we are fine with Buchanan, Collins and Hightower in this role. Carter got a lot of reps for a reason. In any case, we agree that we might add a sub package DE. We just disagree with regard to the importance of the need.

It amazes me how we look at an individual unit, and treat it as if there is not a rest of the team and/or we have a 200mill cap.

You are asking for a 3rd STARTING DE, AND a 3rd down pass rushing DE.
You link to an article that says its easy, since Seattle didn't have to work too hard to do that. Really? Where is our Red Bryant? Where do we find the 6,500,000 to pay the 'easy to find' 3rd starter, Cliff Avril for Seattle? Bryant makes 7 mill a year, Mebane, another 'easy to find' is on a 5 year 25 mill contract, and Bruce Irvin was a mid first round pick.

We have needs much more severe than spending all the cap money we have to get a 3rd starter at DE, and a 4th pass rusher so those 3 top guys get to rest.

Surely we need depth at DE, but to try to mimic what Seattle did by spending heavily surrounding a beast in Bryant will only come at the expense of ignoring OL, TE/WR, DB.

We had a rookie version of Buchanan, an over the hill version of Carter, and a useless version of Bequette as our depth at DE last year. Pathetic. I would argue that anyone is likely to be an upgrade over Carter and Bequette, and that Buchanan year 2 will hopefully be better than Buchanan year 1. Collins and Hightower have versatility to be used in sub rushing packages. That's a start. I wouldn't stand pat there, and I haven't in any of my mocks or proposals for the offseason, but as Andy says, there are other priorities and costs.

I think that trying to address this need through FA is prohibitively expensive. I'd add a rookie rotational DE (I wouldn't expect them to be a starter, but I would expect them to get significant reps) and a rookie LB/sub rusher via the draft. Trent Murphy, Aaron Lynch, Taylor Hart and maybe Will Clarke are the guys who interest me as rotational DEs. Kyle Van Noy, Marcus Smith, Christian Jones and maybe Jeremiah Attaochu are the guys who interest me as LB/sub rushers. Again, I wouldn't expect any of these guys to break the bank financially, or to be immediate starters. As Doug Kyed wrote in the article you link, "it's all about improving depth with some key role players."

LINEBACKER
You have Collins locked into a starting LB position. He played because we had Mayo and Spikes out. Perhaps he is a clear starter. You point out that Fletcher isn't signed.

Accepting that Collins is a starting linebacker, we still have a serious need for a backup linebacker or two. We have nothing behind Mayo, Hightower and Collins (except Ninkovich who is constrained not to play more than 100% of the defensive reps). In my construction, we need a 4th and 5th linebacker. I agree that one of these could take reps as a DE pass-rusher.

I'm not sure why you think Collins, who was among the best players on the field in the last month is questionable to be a major contributor.

I agree with Andy. Collins was drafted #52 overall for a reason, and there are reports the Pats would have taken him at #29. He wasn't projected to be a backup, and he was out best defensive player in 2 playoff games. What he offered was revolutionary not evolutionary, and people are now looking for "the next Jamie Collins" in the draft and speculating on whether Collins is "the future of defense in the NFL". He may not live up to the hype, but I have to assume he is locked in as a starter for 2014 next to Mayo and Hightower.

Fletcher is great depth, and I want him back if the price is reasonable. He can play all 3 LB positions at a reasonable level.

I absolutely want a #4 LB for depth behind Mayo, Hightower and Collins. Ideally, I'd like someone with DE/OLB versatility who can also fill the sub rusher role, or free up Collins and/or Hightower to take some reps on the DL in sub packages. The guys I like are Christian Jones (can play all 3 LB positions, is superb in coverage, was moved around and used as an edge rusher, and strong enough that he was even played at DT at times at 235#), Marcus Smith and Kyle Van Noy. Again, a round 3/4 rookie pick isn't going to break the bank, and will provide reasonable depth. I wouldn't expect them to step in right away, but they wouldn't have to.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE

We agree that decisions need to be made regard to Wilfork.

We also agree on the need to make a decision on Kelly. I think that we agree that this decision can wait for the preseason.

Personally, I have exactly zero question with regard to C Jones and Siliga. Unless they are injured, they should be part of the team's plans, perhaps as inexpensive backups.

I don't think that Jones and Siliga should be listed with Armstead, Vellano, Grissom, and Forston who have shown little or nothing. 1-3 of these players could make the team or the Practice Squad.

Jones and Siliga are absolutely a part of the plan moving forward, as far as I'm concerned. I want them to get a reasonable number of reps, I just don't want them starting. I also think that Armstead will be in a similar position, but after last year I'm not going to bet anything on him until I see him on the field. I think that Forston and Grissom are camp/PS fodder.

The big question will be Wilfork and Kelly. Finding quality starters at both NT and 3-tech is a priority. I've posted in detail on my views on this situation.

Andy, I wouldn't try to "mimic Seattle" in terms of going out and filling needs through FA for those positions, only in terms of trying to find depth so that we can keep people fresh and throw a lot of different looks at teams. These needs are almost all depth, with the exception of a replacement for Wilfork if the FO believes he isn't likely to come back in a reasonable timeframe, or to a reasonable level of play. In that case (which I personally think is likely), I'd cut him and sign a UFA like Linval Joseph or Arthur Jones, who should be considerably cheaper than the cap savings from cutting Wilfork ($7.5). But just because the others are depth doesn't mean they aren't critically important. For the rest, I'd personally do the following:

1. Draft a rotational DE. I've listed some, ranging from late round 1-mid round 2 (Trent Murphy) to round 3/4 or later (Aaron Lynch, Taylor Hart, Will Clarke).
2. Draft a 4th LB/sub rusher. Again, I've listed some. Kyle Van Noy is currenty projected late day 1/early day 2, but Marcus Smith and Christian Jones are 3rd/4th round guys right now.
3. The 3-tech position would depend on how the draft goes. Tommy Kelly is the default option, unless someone like Ra'Shede Hageman or Timmy Jernigan falls and is the best available value.

I believe that leaves ample cap space (once the necessary cuts and restructures are addressed) and additional draft picks to address needs on offense.

 

[mgteich]

Let me be simplistic.

1) I don't think that we should count on Ninkovich and Chandler Jones for over 90% of the defensive reps with only Bequette as a backup.

2) I don't think that we should count on Mayo, Hightower and Collins with no backups.

3) I think that we need competition for Buchanan as our sub-package DE.

It amazes me how we look at an individual unit, and treat it as if there is not a rest of the team and/or we have a 200mill cap.

You are asking for a 3rd STARTING DE, AND a 3rd down pass rushing DE.
You link to an article that says its easy, since Seattle didn't have to work too hard to do that. Really? Where is our Red Bryant? Where do we find the 6,500,000 to pay the 'easy to find' 3rd starter, Cliff Avril for Seattle? Bryant makes 7 mill a year, Mebane, another 'easy to find' is on a 5 year 25 mill contract, and Bruce Irvin was a mid first round pick.

We have needs much more severe than spending all the cap money we have to get a 3rd starter at DE, and a 4th pass rusher so those 3 top guys get to rest.

Surely we need depth at DE, but to try to mimic what Seattle did by spending heavily surrounding a beast in Bryant will only come at the expense of ignoring OL, TE/WR, DB.

I'm not sure why you think Collins, who was among the best players on the field in the last month is questionable to be a major contributor.

 

[mayoclinic]

Let me be simplistic.

1) I don't think that we should count on Ninkovich and Chandler Jones for over 90% of the defensive reps with only Bequette as a backup.

2) I don't think that we should count on Mayo, Hightower and Collins with no backups.

3) I think that we need competition for Buchanan as our sub-package DE.

I agree on all of these. I believe that they can probably be accomplished through the draft with 2 draft picks at fairly reasonable cost, as #2 and #3 can be addressed via one player.

#1: Trent Murphy (NFL DraftScout #44), Scott Crichton (#43), Will Clarke (#125), Aaron Lynch (#206), Taylor Hart (#223). Lynch is a 1st round talent from the neck down, and Hart at least a day 2 talent.

#2/3: Kyle Van Noy (NFL DraftScout #39), Marcus Smith (#79), Jeremiah Attoachu (#84), Christian Jones (#115).

Add 1 guy from #1, 1 guy from #2 and re-sign Dane Fletcher, and you've pretty well addressed both positions:

DE rotation: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, #1. Michael Buchanan could conceivably play his way into some snaps. Armond Armstead could as well if he comes back. Dont'a Hightower could get some DE snaps if we had enough depth at LB.

Sub rusher: Michael Buchanan, Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower, #2/3.

LB depth: Mayo-Hightower Collins as starters, with #2/3 and Fletcher as depth. Fletcher can play all 3 positions, as can Christian Jones.

 

[mgteich]

I agree with your analysis.

My only nitpick is my personal bias against going into the draft hoping that your will be able to get draftees to meet a particular need and have them contribute as rookies. You have a fine plan to allocate two picks to DE and to fill that need.

My idea is that we go into the draft with a complete team, perhaps with one major need (likely to be TE this year). This gives the flexibility to pick the best valued player at a position of need whenever we pick.

I agree on all of these. I believe that they can probably be accomplished through the draft with 2 draft picks at fairly reasonable cost, as #2 and #3 can be addressed via one player.

#1: Trent Murphy (NFL DraftScout #44), Scott Crichton (#43), Will Clarke (#125), Aaron Lynch (#206), Taylor Hart (#223). Lynch is a 1st round talent from the neck down, and Hart at least a day 2 talent.

#2/3: Kyle Van Noy (NFL DraftScout #39), Marcus Smith (#79), Jeremiah Attoachu (#84), Christian Jones (#115).

Add 1 guy from #1, 1 guy from #2 and re-sign Dane Fletcher, and you've pretty well addressed both positions:

DE rotation: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, #1. Michael Buchanan could conceivably play his way into some snaps. Armond Armstead could as well if he comes back. Dont'a Hightower could get some DE snaps if we had enough depth at LB.

Sub rusher: Michael Buchanan, Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower, #2/3.

LB depth: Mayo-Hightower Collins with #2/3 and Fletcher as depth. Fletcher can play all 3 positions, as can Christian Jones.